Blizzard conditions Feb. 9-10...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2010

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Most computer guidance is unanimous in a strengthening a double barrel low pressure setup redeveloping on the east coast. Climatology and past analogs support this, featuring a widespread precipitation event for the entire eastern seaboard. Due to animous blocking this will allow the storm system to affect southern areas more so than Northern New England.

Thoughts on February 5-7 Snowstorm...
A anomalous southerly flow is allowing cirrus clouds to stream overhead as 'the calm before the storm' infects the entire Middle Atlantic region. As this flow continues to increase, national water vapor loop is indicating over +4SD moisture anomalies streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of a low pressure developing in Louisiana. As the infrared and water vapor loops take on the classic comma head approach, cloud tops continue to cool towards Texas and Louisiana noting the actual intensity of this storm system. As the low deepens below 1004mb, plumes of moisture will stream up the eastern seaboard with PWATs (precipitate waters) rising to near 1.2in across the southern Middle Atlantic. As the low pressure attempts to move northeastward, a low undergoing bombogenesis in the northern Atlantic is slow pulling away. The simple physics element of uniform polars repelling will be the example set forth by the unusual blocking scenario to the north where the low is already progged to be near 944mb. The exact displacement of this low is critical to the northern extent of the SLP (surface low pressure) track. Also to note is the correlating negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase below -1 along with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) and negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) ridge. These all indicative of cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Located in southern Canada is also a polar vortex, which will slowly be retrograding northeastward, but will pose critical again to the northern progression of this storm system.

By Friday morning weak dbz (virga) will likely be across southern Virginia and West Virginia as mid levels around 10000ft are indicative of RH (relative humidity) less than 40% by GFS bufkit prognostics. But shortly thereafter moisture will stream into the region with the stratiform snowshield marching slowly to the north in contrast with a weakening and departing high over northern Pennsylvania. As the SLP tracks into South Carolina Friday mid morning precipitation will be into Washington DC and southern Maryland. A weak easterly flow at the surface will allow for thermals to favor rain for those south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, but increasing inversion heights will allow cold air damming to favor severe freezing rain in the foothills of the Appalachians. By Friday late morning things begin to get interesting as the 850hPa low tracks into southern North Carolina on a east-northeast trajectory. Using the typical rule of thumb of the heavy snow axis about 100+mi north of the 850hPa low track, heavy snow will likely be across northern Virginia into Maryland as a strong convergence zone develops across the region. Increasing isentropic lifts heights will favor precipitation rates over .1/hr for standard QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast). With a favorable low level jet near 60knots around 850-925mb aloft, strong vertical lift will favor frontogenesis heights increasing over Maryland and northern Virginia by early afternoon with snowfall totals already around 2-4in for parts of northern Virginia and into West Virginia. As the 700hPa low tracks through southern Kentucky, the stratiform precipitation shield will finally lift northward above the Pennsylvania I-76 turnpike by early afternoon with precipitation in the form of snow. As for temperatures during most of this event, use a simple rule of thumb... Take your wetbulb/dewpoint temperature at the onset of falling precipitation and add on 3-4F. That then will likely be the temperature for the most part during the entire system especially considering WAA (warm air advection) is confined to southern Virginia on southward.

By Friday evening, the northern extent of the precipitation shield will likely be between I-76 and I-80 with virga to the north. A strong convergence axis in northern Maine with increasing momentum transfer of air particles will favor cold air diving into the northern edge of the storm with favorable snow growth zones highlighted as followed. High resolution models are indicative of increasing dendritic growth along the Pennsylvania turnpike south to northern Maryland with H85s temperatures near (-5)-(-8)C during a majority of the event. With excellent snow growth levels around 10000ft, ratios in this region will be in the realm of 12:1 or 15:1 making for a fluffy snowfall once again. Take for instance KMDT (Middletown/Harrisburg, PA) QPF totals from December 19 at .66in, yet 8.8in of snow was officially measured. Keep in mind ratios are defined by temperatures aloft, and not boundary layer (2m-10m) temperatures. Another mesoscale feature will likely occur from Washington DC northward into northern Maryland and perhaps southern Pennsylvania with the formation of coastal/surface front which will serve as an axis for snowfall rates near 2-3in/hr. Finally the formation of a CIS/CCB band is likely towards central and northern Maryland also as a potential gravity wave forms in central Virginia along the northern right front quadrant north of the warm front as rising air parcels continue to rise and sink favoring anomalous precipitation rates. These mesoscale features will serve in isolated higher amounts of snowfall in the northern Middle Atlantic during the height of the event Friday night.

As pressure falls along the SLP track near the Virginia/North Carolina border increase to -3mb/hr, cyclogenesis will favor in a deformation axis towards Maryland and Virginia in particular adding an additional .5in of QPF that northern areas will not see in the precipitation shield. This axis will also be accompanied by strong vertical lift courtesy of the cold air covergence layer favoring mixing aloft allowing a transfer of winds to the surface with gusts over 35-40mph along the coast with blizzard thesholds being met potentially as far west as Annapolis.

As the low pulls away during the later half of Saturday, precipitation will quickly end from west to east leaving a sigificant snowfall in its wake especially over Maryland and northern Virginia into northern Delaware. The northern edge of this precipitation shield is highly uncertain with guidance recently trending to the south courtesy of anomalous blocking, so at this point those from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward should be playing on the conservative route. There will likely be a sharp cutoff between the horizontal lines of Indiana, Pennsylvania-Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-Allentown, Pennsylvania and Butler, Pennsylvania-Williamsport, Pennsylvania-Scranton, Pennsylvania. This exact location is yet to be determined, but guidance suggests this may even sink south especially looking at foreign models. In any case elevation and orographic lift along with higher snow ratios may favor heavy snow along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The bullseye appears to be in northern Maryland from southern to central Hartford County and a country east and west of that. Isolated snow totals may be near 30-32in in this region. See more information below on snow totals. Also for those in southern Pennsylvania, watch for the slim possibility of a mesoscale band forming along the cold conveyor belt of the northern end of the precipitation shield. This sometimes is a common factor in terms of strong blocking with limited northern extent of QPF. This was noted recently from the past light to moderate snowfall that 'overperformed.' At this point the highest "bust" potential so to speak exists from Altoona to Harrisburg to Allentown to New York City. There will be sharp line between 12in and 1-2in. In any case this will be a high impact event, but fortunately the low will not be cutoff from the jet allowing for a general quick motion of the SLP out into the Atlantic with the duration of the storm only around 18hrs or so for most locations as the storm is out of here for many areas especially in Pennsylvania north of the deformation by noon. Stay tune for any updates and/or changes during the day Friday. Have a great day!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Farmville, Virginia - Ashland, Virginia - Warsaw, Virginia - Salisbury, Maryland - Ocean View, Delaware

*Note this line is a general estimation for precipitation type (rain vs. snow) during the height of the precipitation. As the deformation axis departs, this line will likely drop southward. Also during any intense convection correlated with a gravity wave development may favor brief periods of sleet especially towards La Plata, Maryland and the southern suburbs of Washington DC. Also south towards the Appalachians in North Carolina a major freezing rain/ice storm is likely to occur with QPF amounts in excess of .5in of pure freezing rain. North of this line by about 20mi will definitely have all snow.

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Impressive mesoscale banding in northern quadrant favoring isolated snow totals up to 30in in northern Maryland.
2. High winds near 40-60knots aloft will allow for mixing to filter gusts over 35mph especially within 50mi of the coast.
3. High impact on Friday evening commute with precipitation lasting through Saturday afternoon.
4. Heavy snow (+4in) will fall from western Virginia northward into southern New York state and southern Connecticut.
5. Sharp northern QPF gradient favoring a line horizontally across Pennsylvania between Mansfield, Pennsylvania and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Snow Map...

*Note the region at the 5-9in/12in line will more likely be in the range for 8-14in. There is a high bust potential in this event considering the sharp northern cutoff, so any swing of 25mi for the surface low track will change forecasts dramatically.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow, 18-26in isolated higher amounts
Baltimore, MD- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolate higher amounts
Salisbury, MD- Sleet/freezing rain/snow, 3-7in
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolated higher amounts
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow, 12-18in
Dover, DE- Heavy snow/sleet/freezing rain, 5-12in
Trenton, NJ- Heavy snow, 6-10in
New York City, NY- Moderate snow at times, 2-5in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Binghamton, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Albany, NY- Cloudy with flurries
Hartford, CT- Cloudy with light snow, C-1in
Concord, NH- Cloudy
Providence, RI- Cloudy
Worcester, MA- Cloudy
Boston, MA- Cloudy
Nantucket, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Hyannis, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Portland, ME- Mostly cloudy
Bangor, ME- Partly cloudy
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Computer model mayhem can best be describing this entire scenario with striking differences for the northern edge of the QPF shield. The GFS/ECMWF combo seems to have the best consistency, but the NAM/ETA/MM5 seem a good deal further south highlighting strong confluence to the north. For now I took a general 1.0in QPF line from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Reading with 2.0in QPF along the Mason-Dixon line. This fits well with local SREFs except for a bit of tweaking. The biggest concern is the NAM and GGEM runs, but for now the NAM seems to have have some initiating issues illustrating 5 vortices of energy at the height of the storm indicative of QPF problems. It also has a east-southeast trajectory at one point which is suspicious to say the least. The GFS seems to have a better hold on the system, but looking back at similarities in the December 19th event, the GFS did have the precipitation shield well too far northwest with the NAM scoring on the chalkboard so this arises some concern. In any case high resolution models for the 0z cycle will be interesting, but probably siding more towards the NAM. I also took my .1in line about as far north as KUNV with little QPF towards IPT. In any case this event is marginal in terms of confidency so stay tuned to the latest.

After the storm...
Interesting potential lies ahead in the medium and long range as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to be well below normal negative values diving once again into off the charts territory. With a similar negative AO oriention I expect a constant feed of cold Canadian air into the northern half of the United States. With above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic blocking will continue to favor favorable conditions for east coast cyclogenesis and below normal temperatures. The first threat appears quickly on the horizon for Monday-Tuesday with ECMWF taking a miller B scenario with 6-10in amounts across the entire northeast on the 12z 2/4/10 run. The GFS takes a less amplified approach with light amounts scraping New England perhaps with some higher totals. In any case wavelengths have also favored this time period for an east coast storm threat. I have not really focused, as expected, on this scenario, but it is the next threat posed towards the east coast. Also towards Sunday-Tuesday upslope from weak shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes will favor 1-4in of light snow over the snow belts of northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands into Garret County, Maryland. Cold air advection will also be widespread across the northern Middle Atlantic with highs Sunday-Tuesday ranging 7-14F below normal into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits courtesy of 850mb temperatures around -10C or below and 1000-500mb thicknesses below 530dm. After the Monday-Tuesday threat, wavelengths favor a day 8 threat with foreign guidance such as the JMA posing a Miller A winter storm threat with a low pressure ejecting out of the gulf of Mexico. In any case the next two weeks are likely to feature well below normal temperatures with several threats of snow from coastals to clippers. On a side note Lake Erie surface ice has definitely increased especially towards the shallow portions of the lake near Cleveland so the heavy lake effect snow is likely done for the season.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 20.75in
Monthly Total- 43.25in
Seasonal Total- 61.35in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 43.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in

Weather wizard (Patriot News)Link.

Sure has been a long cold spell" is a lackluster comment you'd hear at a social gathering when a person can't think of anything else to say.

Not so with Zachary Labe. The 17-year-old junior at Central Dauphin High School is passionate about weather. So passionate that he's one of just 28 high school students who've been accepted for membership in the American Meteorological Society, the association for radio and television forecasters.

If that isn't passionate enough, there are the weather instruments in Labe's bedroom. They make noise. Day and night. One goes off if the temperature makes an abrupt change, another when a storm begins, and there are more.

Even if it's 2 a.m. and snow or rain snow begins, the alarm wakes Labe. In seconds he's out of bed, running through the upstairs hall yelling, "There's a storm!" And out he goes in the middle of it. In a rainstorm, he takes a lightning detector.

Among Labe's large collection of weather equipment is a top-of-the-line weather station that the federal government uses, but he doesn't use it. "It's not very accurate," he said.

After taking a National Weather Service class, Labe could get an account from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which gives him information to interpret for a weather forecast. And Labe is usually right on. In fact, his prediction is accurate more often than professional forecasters,' he said.

Take the night of Jan. 22-23. Several meteorologists said we'd have rainstorms, perhaps thunder. Labe's prediction said nothing about precipitation. Not a drop fell.

"It's impossible to be perfect in predicting," Labe said. "But you can be less imperfect than others."

Forecasts can't be perfect because forecasters make interpretations. NOAA's "super computers" take information such as wind velocity and humidity and use mathematical equations to transfer the results onto maps and graphs.

Labe interprets NOAA's information, figures out a forecast, then color codes several of NOAA's blank maps of the U.S. to indicate information including temperatures, the jet stream swish and humidity.

In 2007, at age 14, Labe started forecasting with about 10,000 other amateur meteorologists on the Web site Weather Underground -- www.wunderground.com -- under the name "Blizzard92," which he used because he was young and the Internet can be a dangerous place.

The folks at the California-based site noticed Blizzard92's accuracy and in 2009 sent Labe an e-mail asking if he'd be one of nine featured forecaster bloggers in the country, taking on Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Of course, he would.

As a featured blogger, Blizzard92 had to upload a photograph of himself. This took the cat that was his age right out of the bag. Not only were the Weather Underground people amazed that he was 17 and had expert knowledge, Labe received thousands of comments on the site.

And the other eight people selected? They all have degrees in meteorology.

Labe's interest in weather ignited long before he was 12. He often heard his grandparents and uncle discussing the weather. They were farmers, and weather was vital to their livelihood.

Labe didn't say a whole lot, but he started accumulating books on meteorology and weather history. He stayed up nights watching the skies during storms, recorded information in a weather journal and asked for a weather station. His parents bought him an inexpensive one to start. It, of course, led to more equipment.

Labe belongs to Skywarn Storm Spotter for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When there's a storm and tree branches fall or other damage happens, he reports it to NOAA.

Among his other memberships are the Mount Washington Weather Observation Service in New Hampshire and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, to which he sends precipitation amounts every 24 hours.


Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...

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Quoting Bullfr2121:
I love how P451 puts himself in the area with the most snow every single time, and predicts a ton more than anyone else is saying.

Then when someone posts that his area is getting less, he says there is no way he gets less than 28953723 inches...

I can see this happening tomorrow night or thursday...

someone posts that they got 18 inches

P451 then says he got 20 inches (when reports say his area got 12)

Then someone posts they got 24 inches, and 2 minutes later P451 comes back and adjusts his total to 28 inches and it goes back and forth until P451 says he got 6 feet of snow so he can be at the top of the list.

I kinda hope he get a mix or change to rain just to see how he responds to that


Hey man, this ain't accuweather. Let's not bring this crap in here.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
yea, it's been very thick clouds here most of morning here. But as the sun has risen it's ligthened up a little, but still a strong cloud deck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love how P451 puts himself in the area with the most snow every single time, and predicts a ton more than anyone else is saying.

Then when someone posts that his area is getting less, he says there is no way he gets less than 28953723 inches...

I can see this happening tomorrow night or thursday...

someone posts that they got 18 inches

P451 then says he got 20 inches (when reports say his area got 12)

Then someone posts they got 24 inches, and 2 minutes later P451 comes back and adjusts his total to 28 inches and it goes back and forth until P451 says he got 6 feet of snow so he can be at the top of the list.

I kinda hope he get a mix or change to rain just to see how he responds to that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
GFS Precip Type



This animation puts us in rain 'yuck' during the middle...do you concur or agree ,even?
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
2364. bwi
Those early radar echoes went poof, and the cloud ceiling seems to have lifted quite a bit down our way.
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Cirrus getting thicker here as well in Central Jerz. Looking at the recent models I dont see how anywhere in New Jersey doesnt get a foot.
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SL, NJ

Thin cirrus thickening to west
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3345
2361. breald
A bombing storm!! I wouldn't be surprised if we have some blizzard warnings here in Southern New England.
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2360. breald
Quoting zotty:
when he walked away there was a young woman standing there and a not so young guy came over to chat a bit- the comments were hysterical


I know it was pretty funny. I think I am going to start watching NECN from now on. Just because of him..LOL.
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temp. 28.7F here.....DP up to 20.7....rising quickly. Barometer steady....I feel it.
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2358. breald
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
what's noyes' link?


If you type in Matt Noyes.net you will be able to pull it up. I tried to send the link but it did not work.
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2357. zotty
when he walked away there was a young woman standing there and a not so young guy came over to chat a bit- the comments were hysterical
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
2356. zotty
Link

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/

here you go
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
2355. zotty
Quoting breald:


Were you posting on Matt Noyes live stream? I saw a handle called Zotty. Was that you?


yeah that was me- and P451 got a shout out, too.

very productive day in the office...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
what's noyes' link?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
2352. breald
Quoting P451:
Mount Holly, what are you doing? No way these totals are correct.


TONIGHT
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO EAST 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
90 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.
WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.


....not a chance. double them. Maybe triple.


You too? I am just listening to the live stream.. You guys are very entertaining.
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2351. breald
Quoting zotty:
PP- is it snowing by you yet?


Were you posting on Matt Noyes live stream? I saw a handle called Zotty. Was that you?
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2349. zotty
PP- is it snowing by you yet?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
2348. zotty
Quoting drj10526:
Since the Northeast blog is MIA, i thought i would post this here and see if anyone can give me some insight. This is from the albany discussion. They make it sound like the the bulk of snowfall is going to be south of us. I am in New Milford CT, about 1/2 way up the western side of CT in litchfield County. are they just being conservative?






Wednesday...both deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to favor a more southward track of the upper level low...and associated surface development along/off the northern middle Atlantic coast...with reduced quantitative precipitation forecast across the region. However...despite this...there is still the possibility of warning level snowfall across portions of the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT...with the greatest potential within southern Litchfield Colorado. Since models continue to trend southward...with increasing uncertainty for warning level snowfall across these areas...we have maintained the watch...and have held off any upgrades to a warning. In fact...based on the 00z/nam12...only extreme southern portions of these counties come close to warning criteria.


Matty Noyes commented on Albany with the new model- he thought about a foot
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
2346. zotty
The Noyes running commentary is one of the funniest things I've seen in a while. It is a perfect playground for PalmyraPunishment
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
Since the Northeast blog is MIA, i thought i would post this here and see if anyone can give me some insight. This is from the albany discussion. They make it sound like the the bulk of snowfall is going to be south of us. I am in New Milford CT, about 1/2 way up the western side of CT in litchfield County. are they just being conservative?






Wednesday...both deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to favor a more southward track of the upper level low...and associated surface development along/off the northern middle Atlantic coast...with reduced quantitative precipitation forecast across the region. However...despite this...there is still the possibility of warning level snowfall across portions of the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT...with the greatest potential within southern Litchfield Colorado. Since models continue to trend southward...with increasing uncertainty for warning level snowfall across these areas...we have maintained the watch...and have held off any upgrades to a warning. In fact...based on the 00z/nam12...only extreme southern portions of these counties come close to warning criteria.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yo P.....my skills are novice at best. It always appears to me that the hardest snow is just to the north or northwest of the sleet/snow line, which seems like it will be hovering just off the coast for some time. I really like a foot plus from rt 287 to the coast (excluding the immediate coastline).....thoughts?
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NAM brings a lot of warm air at the surface. Rain for a long time on Cape Cod, MA likely keeping amounts down around 3-6". This is the warmest model.
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Lets nudge tgat red bullseye a little south. We all want DCA to get a record, now, dont we?

HeavySnow, whos themet calling for the 15-25? Not Bob Ryan by any chance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS gives me a foot, NAM gives me 10 inches. GFS handled this past storm better, so I'll go with that.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting P451:


Was 2006 the year you guys got 8" in 2 hours?

I don't expect that to happen.

As for Blizzard Warnings I think those would be confined to Monmouth County NJ, southward to DE - and for Long Island.

I think NYC is too far inland to meet the criteria for warnings.

You will probably have moments where you get heavy snow and a wind gust to 40mph but it won't be continuous enough to warrant warnings.




I'm not so sure there won't be blizzard warnings here in NYC eventually, P451. I know you're better at predicting weather than myself and seem much more into it, but if we get what they're saying in terms of the snow (somewhere between 10 and 18") combined with sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts into the low 60's, that will surely create blizzard conditions. We shall see...I'm excited.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1783
Seeing the first cirrus clouds moving into the area now. It's such a beautiful sunny day with temps hovering around freezing...the calm before the...?
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1783
Quoting HeavySnow:
15-24+ on me according to my new fave local met.


HS, who is that fave?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15-24+ on me according to my new fave local met.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
I am liking what I am seeing. I am in Roseland NJ which is about 10 miles northwest of Newark. Seems like the models want to put bullseye of this storm slightly to the north than last evening was showing. While the totals may not come close to the weekend blizzard this one will pack a bigger punch. Local mets are hedging after a bust in the NYC metro area, so they are starting small. Those 6-12s will turn into 12-18s once the first 6 inches are on the ground around 2pm tomorrow!!!
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2330. PNYC
Anyone know anything about the low temps last night. Here in NYC they were predicting low 20s. I woke up this morning and it was 30.
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NAM has shifted west which may send the bulk of precip towards us. Looks like KMDT is going to get crushed. I'm starting to become seriously concerned.

From Steven DiMartino at NYNJPAWeather.com

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/SnowmapthrougThurs2-300x289.png
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I'm going to de-lurk here to say that I have concerns along the lines expressed by theRasberryPatch in 2287:

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
you guys can go back and forth on this one and that, no matter its going to SNOW. does it matter how much this one or that one says.

Why are you so demanding on Blizz? He is still in high school, for crying out loud. Cut him some slack and let him have a life. You saw last week he was having problems with everyone demanding of him and wondering what it would be like if his prediction/forecast should fail. he's 17 and already feeling some anxiety. I guess some here were too busy wondering how much snow they were going to get instead of reading his remarks last Thursday. As you saw above he has other things going on.


We all know Blizz is very knowledgeable and highly motivated to respond to the comments and questions here. That's great, but only up to a point. It makes him vulnerable to pressure and worry, and that's not good at all. We should not be a burden to him.

It's up to us to bear in mind that he's still in high school -- to remember that sometimes young people find it very hard to say no to adults, even when they should -- and act accordingly.

*********

By the way, Blizz, thanks for all you do and congratulations on the great writeup in the paper. You are a wonderful young man. Your family must be so proud of you.
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2327. zyphor
For those of you in NE Maryland, here's the APG issued weather forecast. Good wind info:

Got a nice view of the crescent moon over the eastern sky early this morning and see the mid/high clouds are still pretty thin. However, that will change in a few hours as a very complicated set of storm systems will affect the Mid-Atlantic later today through Wednesday. Latest surface analysis shows the Gulf Low near the Florida panhandle and the northern stream Low over Missouri/Iowa. Few radar returns are already getting picked up over western MD and eastern WV/VA, however, like last Friday (immediately preceding this past snow event), it will take time for the lower atmosphere to saturate enough to form snow. Morning sounding depicts this dry layer up to 10,000 feet. Want to keep the same thinking I had yesterday as far as start time: 1400-1600 for APG. Snow initially will be light and wet, but pick up in intensity overnight as the coastal Low strengthens off the Carolina/Delmarva coast. The Low currently over the central U.S. will begin to interact with the coastal Low early Wed morning and (without getting into technical weather lingo) further strengthen the coastal Low - while at the same time - resulting in snow banding over the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Boston. Because APG lies in that vicinity, snow totals will reach the high end of the spectrum for a 10-18 inch snow event. As the storm strengthens off the coast, winds will begin to pick up Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening. Please see the text forecast below for details regarding winds.


TODAY (TUESDAY): Becoming cloudy by mid morning, with cloud ceilings lowering through the day, good chance for light snow after 1400, high 32°F, wind light and variable becoming SE-E at 7 MPH during the afternoon. Cloudy and becoming breezy with snow overnight, may be moderate/heavy at times - especially after midnight, low 26°F, wind E at 10G17 MPH becomes NE at 10-17G22 MPH after midnight.

TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY): Cloudy and becoming windy with snow - heavy at times through early afternoon, followed by light snow through 1900, high 32°F, wind N at 10-15G22 MPH becomes NW at 20-28G40 MPH by mid/late morning. Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow during the evening, partial clearing possible after midnight, low 22°F, wind NW at 20-28G38 MPH.


REMARKS: Noise focusing will occur toward the S and E of the source today due to wind speed and directional shear, in addition to a surface based inversion.
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NYNJPA Weather blog still calling for 12-24" of snow over a wide area of pa, jersey, and deleware.
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Its amazing how greedy we become. A week ago a 12" forecast would make me ecstatic here in DC. Now less then 20" seems a bust! Virga starting to show up around this area.
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2324. PNYC
Hello P451,

Do you think we will be getting blizzard warnings in NYC? Tomorrow I am probably going into work regardless unless the office closes. Also do you think we can get over 20 inches here. I know they are predicting 10-15 or 12-18 with locally heavier totals here.

I have been thinking this will be our biggest storm since 2006.
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2322. breald
Quoting CTRSteve:
Don't know if anybody's watching Matt Noyes but he just loaded the new NAM and went nuts. 12" at the Mass Pike and greater for SE Mass, RI, and Conn.



I just checked out his website. He is the guy that p451 posted a link to awhile back.

On his web stie it says request an appearance. Do you think he would like to appear with me for dinner...LOL. Just kidding.
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Quoting P451:


I think he will change his mind some once he sees the newer models.

This storm, as with any, does have it's bust areas. Yet, I think PA, NJ, DE, NYC aren't going to bust. There is just too much going on for that to happen.

Unless bust means "I didn't get a foot of snow". Well, then, sure, parts of PA are going to "bust".



Mornin' Neighbor, What do you think the timing of the high wind looks like on this one,also are we in for higher gusts than the last one?
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
2319. RkTec
Models keep nudging north each new run.

12Z NAM brings mixing issues well into DCA, BWI, PHL, DE, S. NJ. Low really hugs the coast, but once it deepens all areas change back to all snow.

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Don't know if anybody's watching Matt Noyes but he just loaded the new NAM and went nuts. 12" at the Mass Pike and greater for SE Mass, RI, and Conn.
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