Blizzard conditions Feb. 9-10...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2010

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Most computer guidance is unanimous in a strengthening a double barrel low pressure setup redeveloping on the east coast. Climatology and past analogs support this, featuring a widespread precipitation event for the entire eastern seaboard. Due to animous blocking this will allow the storm system to affect southern areas more so than Northern New England.

Thoughts on February 5-7 Snowstorm...
A anomalous southerly flow is allowing cirrus clouds to stream overhead as 'the calm before the storm' infects the entire Middle Atlantic region. As this flow continues to increase, national water vapor loop is indicating over +4SD moisture anomalies streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of a low pressure developing in Louisiana. As the infrared and water vapor loops take on the classic comma head approach, cloud tops continue to cool towards Texas and Louisiana noting the actual intensity of this storm system. As the low deepens below 1004mb, plumes of moisture will stream up the eastern seaboard with PWATs (precipitate waters) rising to near 1.2in across the southern Middle Atlantic. As the low pressure attempts to move northeastward, a low undergoing bombogenesis in the northern Atlantic is slow pulling away. The simple physics element of uniform polars repelling will be the example set forth by the unusual blocking scenario to the north where the low is already progged to be near 944mb. The exact displacement of this low is critical to the northern extent of the SLP (surface low pressure) track. Also to note is the correlating negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase below -1 along with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) and negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) ridge. These all indicative of cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Located in southern Canada is also a polar vortex, which will slowly be retrograding northeastward, but will pose critical again to the northern progression of this storm system.

By Friday morning weak dbz (virga) will likely be across southern Virginia and West Virginia as mid levels around 10000ft are indicative of RH (relative humidity) less than 40% by GFS bufkit prognostics. But shortly thereafter moisture will stream into the region with the stratiform snowshield marching slowly to the north in contrast with a weakening and departing high over northern Pennsylvania. As the SLP tracks into South Carolina Friday mid morning precipitation will be into Washington DC and southern Maryland. A weak easterly flow at the surface will allow for thermals to favor rain for those south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, but increasing inversion heights will allow cold air damming to favor severe freezing rain in the foothills of the Appalachians. By Friday late morning things begin to get interesting as the 850hPa low tracks into southern North Carolina on a east-northeast trajectory. Using the typical rule of thumb of the heavy snow axis about 100+mi north of the 850hPa low track, heavy snow will likely be across northern Virginia into Maryland as a strong convergence zone develops across the region. Increasing isentropic lifts heights will favor precipitation rates over .1/hr for standard QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast). With a favorable low level jet near 60knots around 850-925mb aloft, strong vertical lift will favor frontogenesis heights increasing over Maryland and northern Virginia by early afternoon with snowfall totals already around 2-4in for parts of northern Virginia and into West Virginia. As the 700hPa low tracks through southern Kentucky, the stratiform precipitation shield will finally lift northward above the Pennsylvania I-76 turnpike by early afternoon with precipitation in the form of snow. As for temperatures during most of this event, use a simple rule of thumb... Take your wetbulb/dewpoint temperature at the onset of falling precipitation and add on 3-4F. That then will likely be the temperature for the most part during the entire system especially considering WAA (warm air advection) is confined to southern Virginia on southward.

By Friday evening, the northern extent of the precipitation shield will likely be between I-76 and I-80 with virga to the north. A strong convergence axis in northern Maine with increasing momentum transfer of air particles will favor cold air diving into the northern edge of the storm with favorable snow growth zones highlighted as followed. High resolution models are indicative of increasing dendritic growth along the Pennsylvania turnpike south to northern Maryland with H85s temperatures near (-5)-(-8)C during a majority of the event. With excellent snow growth levels around 10000ft, ratios in this region will be in the realm of 12:1 or 15:1 making for a fluffy snowfall once again. Take for instance KMDT (Middletown/Harrisburg, PA) QPF totals from December 19 at .66in, yet 8.8in of snow was officially measured. Keep in mind ratios are defined by temperatures aloft, and not boundary layer (2m-10m) temperatures. Another mesoscale feature will likely occur from Washington DC northward into northern Maryland and perhaps southern Pennsylvania with the formation of coastal/surface front which will serve as an axis for snowfall rates near 2-3in/hr. Finally the formation of a CIS/CCB band is likely towards central and northern Maryland also as a potential gravity wave forms in central Virginia along the northern right front quadrant north of the warm front as rising air parcels continue to rise and sink favoring anomalous precipitation rates. These mesoscale features will serve in isolated higher amounts of snowfall in the northern Middle Atlantic during the height of the event Friday night.

As pressure falls along the SLP track near the Virginia/North Carolina border increase to -3mb/hr, cyclogenesis will favor in a deformation axis towards Maryland and Virginia in particular adding an additional .5in of QPF that northern areas will not see in the precipitation shield. This axis will also be accompanied by strong vertical lift courtesy of the cold air covergence layer favoring mixing aloft allowing a transfer of winds to the surface with gusts over 35-40mph along the coast with blizzard thesholds being met potentially as far west as Annapolis.

As the low pulls away during the later half of Saturday, precipitation will quickly end from west to east leaving a sigificant snowfall in its wake especially over Maryland and northern Virginia into northern Delaware. The northern edge of this precipitation shield is highly uncertain with guidance recently trending to the south courtesy of anomalous blocking, so at this point those from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward should be playing on the conservative route. There will likely be a sharp cutoff between the horizontal lines of Indiana, Pennsylvania-Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-Allentown, Pennsylvania and Butler, Pennsylvania-Williamsport, Pennsylvania-Scranton, Pennsylvania. This exact location is yet to be determined, but guidance suggests this may even sink south especially looking at foreign models. In any case elevation and orographic lift along with higher snow ratios may favor heavy snow along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The bullseye appears to be in northern Maryland from southern to central Hartford County and a country east and west of that. Isolated snow totals may be near 30-32in in this region. See more information below on snow totals. Also for those in southern Pennsylvania, watch for the slim possibility of a mesoscale band forming along the cold conveyor belt of the northern end of the precipitation shield. This sometimes is a common factor in terms of strong blocking with limited northern extent of QPF. This was noted recently from the past light to moderate snowfall that 'overperformed.' At this point the highest "bust" potential so to speak exists from Altoona to Harrisburg to Allentown to New York City. There will be sharp line between 12in and 1-2in. In any case this will be a high impact event, but fortunately the low will not be cutoff from the jet allowing for a general quick motion of the SLP out into the Atlantic with the duration of the storm only around 18hrs or so for most locations as the storm is out of here for many areas especially in Pennsylvania north of the deformation by noon. Stay tune for any updates and/or changes during the day Friday. Have a great day!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Farmville, Virginia - Ashland, Virginia - Warsaw, Virginia - Salisbury, Maryland - Ocean View, Delaware

*Note this line is a general estimation for precipitation type (rain vs. snow) during the height of the precipitation. As the deformation axis departs, this line will likely drop southward. Also during any intense convection correlated with a gravity wave development may favor brief periods of sleet especially towards La Plata, Maryland and the southern suburbs of Washington DC. Also south towards the Appalachians in North Carolina a major freezing rain/ice storm is likely to occur with QPF amounts in excess of .5in of pure freezing rain. North of this line by about 20mi will definitely have all snow.

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Impressive mesoscale banding in northern quadrant favoring isolated snow totals up to 30in in northern Maryland.
2. High winds near 40-60knots aloft will allow for mixing to filter gusts over 35mph especially within 50mi of the coast.
3. High impact on Friday evening commute with precipitation lasting through Saturday afternoon.
4. Heavy snow (+4in) will fall from western Virginia northward into southern New York state and southern Connecticut.
5. Sharp northern QPF gradient favoring a line horizontally across Pennsylvania between Mansfield, Pennsylvania and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Snow Map...

*Note the region at the 5-9in/12in line will more likely be in the range for 8-14in. There is a high bust potential in this event considering the sharp northern cutoff, so any swing of 25mi for the surface low track will change forecasts dramatically.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow, 18-26in isolated higher amounts
Baltimore, MD- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolate higher amounts
Salisbury, MD- Sleet/freezing rain/snow, 3-7in
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolated higher amounts
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow, 12-18in
Dover, DE- Heavy snow/sleet/freezing rain, 5-12in
Trenton, NJ- Heavy snow, 6-10in
New York City, NY- Moderate snow at times, 2-5in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Binghamton, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Albany, NY- Cloudy with flurries
Hartford, CT- Cloudy with light snow, C-1in
Concord, NH- Cloudy
Providence, RI- Cloudy
Worcester, MA- Cloudy
Boston, MA- Cloudy
Nantucket, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Hyannis, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Portland, ME- Mostly cloudy
Bangor, ME- Partly cloudy
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Computer model mayhem can best be describing this entire scenario with striking differences for the northern edge of the QPF shield. The GFS/ECMWF combo seems to have the best consistency, but the NAM/ETA/MM5 seem a good deal further south highlighting strong confluence to the north. For now I took a general 1.0in QPF line from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Reading with 2.0in QPF along the Mason-Dixon line. This fits well with local SREFs except for a bit of tweaking. The biggest concern is the NAM and GGEM runs, but for now the NAM seems to have have some initiating issues illustrating 5 vortices of energy at the height of the storm indicative of QPF problems. It also has a east-southeast trajectory at one point which is suspicious to say the least. The GFS seems to have a better hold on the system, but looking back at similarities in the December 19th event, the GFS did have the precipitation shield well too far northwest with the NAM scoring on the chalkboard so this arises some concern. In any case high resolution models for the 0z cycle will be interesting, but probably siding more towards the NAM. I also took my .1in line about as far north as KUNV with little QPF towards IPT. In any case this event is marginal in terms of confidency so stay tuned to the latest.

After the storm...
Interesting potential lies ahead in the medium and long range as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to be well below normal negative values diving once again into off the charts territory. With a similar negative AO oriention I expect a constant feed of cold Canadian air into the northern half of the United States. With above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic blocking will continue to favor favorable conditions for east coast cyclogenesis and below normal temperatures. The first threat appears quickly on the horizon for Monday-Tuesday with ECMWF taking a miller B scenario with 6-10in amounts across the entire northeast on the 12z 2/4/10 run. The GFS takes a less amplified approach with light amounts scraping New England perhaps with some higher totals. In any case wavelengths have also favored this time period for an east coast storm threat. I have not really focused, as expected, on this scenario, but it is the next threat posed towards the east coast. Also towards Sunday-Tuesday upslope from weak shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes will favor 1-4in of light snow over the snow belts of northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands into Garret County, Maryland. Cold air advection will also be widespread across the northern Middle Atlantic with highs Sunday-Tuesday ranging 7-14F below normal into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits courtesy of 850mb temperatures around -10C or below and 1000-500mb thicknesses below 530dm. After the Monday-Tuesday threat, wavelengths favor a day 8 threat with foreign guidance such as the JMA posing a Miller A winter storm threat with a low pressure ejecting out of the gulf of Mexico. In any case the next two weeks are likely to feature well below normal temperatures with several threats of snow from coastals to clippers. On a side note Lake Erie surface ice has definitely increased especially towards the shallow portions of the lake near Cleveland so the heavy lake effect snow is likely done for the season.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 20.75in
Monthly Total- 43.25in
Seasonal Total- 61.35in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 43.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in

Weather wizard (Patriot News)Link.

Sure has been a long cold spell" is a lackluster comment you'd hear at a social gathering when a person can't think of anything else to say.

Not so with Zachary Labe. The 17-year-old junior at Central Dauphin High School is passionate about weather. So passionate that he's one of just 28 high school students who've been accepted for membership in the American Meteorological Society, the association for radio and television forecasters.

If that isn't passionate enough, there are the weather instruments in Labe's bedroom. They make noise. Day and night. One goes off if the temperature makes an abrupt change, another when a storm begins, and there are more.

Even if it's 2 a.m. and snow or rain snow begins, the alarm wakes Labe. In seconds he's out of bed, running through the upstairs hall yelling, "There's a storm!" And out he goes in the middle of it. In a rainstorm, he takes a lightning detector.

Among Labe's large collection of weather equipment is a top-of-the-line weather station that the federal government uses, but he doesn't use it. "It's not very accurate," he said.

After taking a National Weather Service class, Labe could get an account from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which gives him information to interpret for a weather forecast. And Labe is usually right on. In fact, his prediction is accurate more often than professional forecasters,' he said.

Take the night of Jan. 22-23. Several meteorologists said we'd have rainstorms, perhaps thunder. Labe's prediction said nothing about precipitation. Not a drop fell.

"It's impossible to be perfect in predicting," Labe said. "But you can be less imperfect than others."

Forecasts can't be perfect because forecasters make interpretations. NOAA's "super computers" take information such as wind velocity and humidity and use mathematical equations to transfer the results onto maps and graphs.

Labe interprets NOAA's information, figures out a forecast, then color codes several of NOAA's blank maps of the U.S. to indicate information including temperatures, the jet stream swish and humidity.

In 2007, at age 14, Labe started forecasting with about 10,000 other amateur meteorologists on the Web site Weather Underground -- www.wunderground.com -- under the name "Blizzard92," which he used because he was young and the Internet can be a dangerous place.

The folks at the California-based site noticed Blizzard92's accuracy and in 2009 sent Labe an e-mail asking if he'd be one of nine featured forecaster bloggers in the country, taking on Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Of course, he would.

As a featured blogger, Blizzard92 had to upload a photograph of himself. This took the cat that was his age right out of the bag. Not only were the Weather Underground people amazed that he was 17 and had expert knowledge, Labe received thousands of comments on the site.

And the other eight people selected? They all have degrees in meteorology.

Labe's interest in weather ignited long before he was 12. He often heard his grandparents and uncle discussing the weather. They were farmers, and weather was vital to their livelihood.

Labe didn't say a whole lot, but he started accumulating books on meteorology and weather history. He stayed up nights watching the skies during storms, recorded information in a weather journal and asked for a weather station. His parents bought him an inexpensive one to start. It, of course, led to more equipment.

Labe belongs to Skywarn Storm Spotter for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When there's a storm and tree branches fall or other damage happens, he reports it to NOAA.

Among his other memberships are the Mount Washington Weather Observation Service in New Hampshire and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, to which he sends precipitation amounts every 24 hours.


Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...

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Burke VA--started snowing steadily about 5:15 pm. Just went outside--we have nearly two inches and its coming steady.
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Blizz , I see looking at the radar it seems to be trendindg to your east and moving NE, but if the precip. shield does expand as you said, you still clould get some good totals. I was wondering, as the coastal low deepens, will the precip. shield expand or tighten-up as it gets more intense?
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With 2 on the ground, I've got 69 for the year dudes and dudettes!

Yay Bill and Ted 69 dudes!
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Quoting Mason803:
17.9" last year. 63.8" this year

what a difference a year makes

Well, ok so 23in above this year towards your way from my seasonal total, close to my 7 above your total from last year, hahaha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
Oops, I failed to look out my window but my wife just got home from work and said it started at 7:15 PM here in Hamilton TWP NJ...
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Bliz how much total are you expecting in Lancaster?
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17.9" last year. 63.8" and counting this year

what a difference a year makes
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
2661. RkTec
Picked up about 0.2" so far. Mega dry slot rapidly moving toward my area from the northwest.

Intellicast Radar
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Quoting Mason803:


much better?? lol orrtanna is along south mountain in adams county. i'm 6 miles west of gettysburg and around a mile south of route 30.

Well I had 25.4in of snow last year, weren't you in the low teens? Maybe I am wrong.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
SilverShipsofAndilar- O my, hahaha, nothing of that sort headed our way. Ratios will be the typical 15:1 although some rimmed dendrites could add for lower ratios towards Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
Quoting Blizzard92:

Well you and I did much better than him last winter, so balance of equilibrium I suppose, lol.


much better?? lol orrtanna is along south mountain in adams county. i'm 6 miles west of gettysburg and around a mile south of route 30.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
2657. cobra99
Snowy in Bordentown,NJ @7:30...moderate
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Quoting Blizzard92:

30:1, lord who is calling for that? Hahaha.


HAHAHAHA! You didn't watch Margusity's forecast the other day? Guy drew a circle over the entire center of the country, including most of PA, and said 0.2 inches of liquid equals 6 inches of snow. He wishes . . . we all wish, I guess.
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Snow started at 5:30. At 5:45 it became moderate and began to accumulate. At 7:30 - 2.3 inches.
Who knows what will happen. I'm surprised at the quick accumulation based on what I was hearing.
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About 1.5 inches in Pasadena just south of Bmore, it's just floating down. Had to shovel out two trucks, driveway, a deck and two boats since Sunday. But still lovin it!!!!
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Quoting onoweather:
i'll tell you what i'm getting jealous of mason. He's gotten more than me so far on every storm this year it seems. Where is he by the way I hear he has 7 inches or something crazy like that already lol!

Well you and I did much better than him last winter, so balance of equilibrium I suppose, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
i'll tell you what i'm getting jealous of mason. He's gotten more than me so far on every storm this year it seems. Where is he by the way I hear he has 7 inches or something crazy like that already lol!
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Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
NWS is still calling for 1.15" QPF - this is where we really could have used that 30:1.

30:1, lord who is calling for that? Hahaha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
NWS is still calling for 1.15" QPF - this is where we really could have used that 30:1.
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i had 6.2" @ my 7pm observation. keeps coming down steady. looks like another 0.5" to 0.7" has fallen in the past 30 min.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Buddy texted me and just started snowing in South Philadelphia at 7:30 on the nose.
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Well it is snowing very hard in York. My dog just did a belly flop off of the deck into the snow. Hilarious. He wouldn't do it earlier in the week but this evening he just dove in.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Precipitation shield beginning to expand. I will be very interested in how this all turns out actually, it could go either way.


At least you're honest. If PP and others help me, I think we can pull this sucker back west a few miles. Who's ready to give a heave-ho?
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2644. hurigo
Thanks Geek.

Ok Ya'll. I need to step away from this latest.
Not gonna snow here on the border.
Good luck everyone!

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2643. rajrocs
snow just started for me.
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Precipitation shield beginning to expand. I will be very interested in how this all turns out actually, it could go either way.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
Quoting hurigo:
Geek I forgot where you are. PA?


Wilmington Delaware
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Finally getting to check in for the night. Thanks for nothing, Margusity, and your 30:1 ratios. And why is this storm trending east? I thought we were making history tonight? Harrisburg is barely on the radar now! BAH!
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2639. hurigo
Geek I forgot where you are. PA?
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Observation from Dover, DE - started as rain, has now turned to snow.
Temp. 31.6
Pressure - 29.90 and rising?
Winds - Calm

AND ~drum roll~ I broke my snow shovel.
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Blizz- Its 36F as of right now which gives me the concern of mixing in the NYC area.. Will enough cold air draw in?
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Its snowing now. Lite coating on the sidewalks.
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Quoting Followingseas:
Cambridge, where are you located in Cambridge? My Mom and Dad live on Pig Neck Rd off 16.



I live a couple blocks off Rt 50. If your parents have lived there long, we may know each other. I used to ride dirt bikes daily on Pig Neck and Silver Goose Road!

It has just started snowing in Cambridge. Mostly light snow, but a little freezing rain as well. Still a little warm at 33F. Only dropped about 1 degree in the last hour. Latest forecast is calling for 12" here. That seems a little optimistic to me. Blizz??

Almost quitting time. Do I walk the dogs first or go joy-riding. Decisions decisions!
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So 6-10" south of york or what?
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Quoting zotty:


that is the consensus I've seen- and Danbury this winter is pretty far away- did you get any snow Dec 19?


a very light dusting. nothing measureable.
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Quoting psnizzle:
Local Mets at 7:00 still calling for 10-15" of snow and has York really close to 15-20". Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. Blizz are you going on the record as saying not that much snow?

Yep, put me on the dry slot type forecast. Things are already sliding to our east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
Blizz, Does it look like the NYC metro area will mix with rain/sleet? what do you see in the future for us up here with this one?
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Still waiting here in Media. People are calling me tonight to find out what to expect - because of this blog, Blizz's accuracy and the conversations and contributions of all. (Thank you!)

Good to hear the snow has begun near you, testbenchdude. Still waiting....

Thank you everyone for sticking up for P451. I've just started blogging here, and what attracted me was the comraderie and the good-natured love of the snow and forecasting every little detail and possibility. Plus all your knowledge and people being willing to teach those of us who are newbies.

So thanks all - Happy snow! :)
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Local Mets at 7:00 still calling for 10-15" of snow and has York really close to 15-20". Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. Blizz are you going on the record as saying not that much snow?
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7PM S.Delaware obs...Sleet/freezing rain. Wind SE 3 Barometer 29.89 falling. Temp 32F The barometer is already starting out pretty low with the beginning of this event. This thing is really going to blow up. A lot of power outages can be expected if this turns into the long lasted event its expected to. Forcast calls for 6-12 inches of snow in this part of Sussex CO. Hard to believe it will be that much with the mixing anticipated. Winter storm warning & wind advisory posted.
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Good evening Blizzard,


Light/Moderate snow in NEPA. Temp at 23F. Winds out of the east. Already blowing around a bit. Even if it snows like this... After 24 hours I bet we will have above 12".

For tonight. Bottle of Rum. Watching the new big screen in HD. Can you believe a good snow too. Tonight there is a happy guy on a mountain top. :-)
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Still no snow; at least not reaching the ground.
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2624. hurigo
Hey Blizz,
Now that Heavy isn't here (probably stuck in traffic) what do you think for metro DC/VA side
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Are we stuck at 6-8" in LSV?
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Quoting snowkitty:
Owings Mills MD
Temp 33F
Light Snow

Thanks for all of info Blizz & P451...
I really appreciate the help in understanding the forecast, models, etc... I pass your info on to family & friends...in fact based on your info a few days ago Blizz, I let others know that we can expect a possible big storm Tues/Wed and they all worked to be better prepared (I hope) for this storm.

Thanks again guys, I'll keep checking back for updates :-)

I'm a new flake from Pasadena, MD. Been here since last Friday,not knowing the difference between a GFS or PMS. I have to keep dumping my temp folder everyday just looking for some of the abbreviations and terminology. Thanks to all of you on this site, I pass along your very in-depth analysis of these past storms, VERY IMPRESSIVE.
Thanks again, I enjoy reading all the posts, keep posting while the sun don't shine.
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Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
So Blizz, any changes to your outlook for this one?

No, I am pretty pessimistic about this storm being mainly to our east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
2620. cchamp6
Hey Blizz,

Very wierd not having Sully around for so long. I sure hope everything is ok.

So it appears it will snow for the firs time around here since 1742. LOL!

Im hearing 10-16 in my area with strong winds too. I have the camera and video charged up and will shoot some video from the plow. I am sure you wont hear from me for a day or so.
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2619. RkTec
Light snow has begun here just southwest of Allentown, PA
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So Blizz, any changes to your outlook for this one?
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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