Blizzard conditions Feb. 9-10...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2010

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Most computer guidance is unanimous in a strengthening a double barrel low pressure setup redeveloping on the east coast. Climatology and past analogs support this, featuring a widespread precipitation event for the entire eastern seaboard. Due to animous blocking this will allow the storm system to affect southern areas more so than Northern New England.

Thoughts on February 5-7 Snowstorm...
A anomalous southerly flow is allowing cirrus clouds to stream overhead as 'the calm before the storm' infects the entire Middle Atlantic region. As this flow continues to increase, national water vapor loop is indicating over +4SD moisture anomalies streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of a low pressure developing in Louisiana. As the infrared and water vapor loops take on the classic comma head approach, cloud tops continue to cool towards Texas and Louisiana noting the actual intensity of this storm system. As the low deepens below 1004mb, plumes of moisture will stream up the eastern seaboard with PWATs (precipitate waters) rising to near 1.2in across the southern Middle Atlantic. As the low pressure attempts to move northeastward, a low undergoing bombogenesis in the northern Atlantic is slow pulling away. The simple physics element of uniform polars repelling will be the example set forth by the unusual blocking scenario to the north where the low is already progged to be near 944mb. The exact displacement of this low is critical to the northern extent of the SLP (surface low pressure) track. Also to note is the correlating negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) phase below -1 along with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) and negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) ridge. These all indicative of cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Located in southern Canada is also a polar vortex, which will slowly be retrograding northeastward, but will pose critical again to the northern progression of this storm system.

By Friday morning weak dbz (virga) will likely be across southern Virginia and West Virginia as mid levels around 10000ft are indicative of RH (relative humidity) less than 40% by GFS bufkit prognostics. But shortly thereafter moisture will stream into the region with the stratiform snowshield marching slowly to the north in contrast with a weakening and departing high over northern Pennsylvania. As the SLP tracks into South Carolina Friday mid morning precipitation will be into Washington DC and southern Maryland. A weak easterly flow at the surface will allow for thermals to favor rain for those south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, but increasing inversion heights will allow cold air damming to favor severe freezing rain in the foothills of the Appalachians. By Friday late morning things begin to get interesting as the 850hPa low tracks into southern North Carolina on a east-northeast trajectory. Using the typical rule of thumb of the heavy snow axis about 100+mi north of the 850hPa low track, heavy snow will likely be across northern Virginia into Maryland as a strong convergence zone develops across the region. Increasing isentropic lifts heights will favor precipitation rates over .1/hr for standard QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast). With a favorable low level jet near 60knots around 850-925mb aloft, strong vertical lift will favor frontogenesis heights increasing over Maryland and northern Virginia by early afternoon with snowfall totals already around 2-4in for parts of northern Virginia and into West Virginia. As the 700hPa low tracks through southern Kentucky, the stratiform precipitation shield will finally lift northward above the Pennsylvania I-76 turnpike by early afternoon with precipitation in the form of snow. As for temperatures during most of this event, use a simple rule of thumb... Take your wetbulb/dewpoint temperature at the onset of falling precipitation and add on 3-4F. That then will likely be the temperature for the most part during the entire system especially considering WAA (warm air advection) is confined to southern Virginia on southward.

By Friday evening, the northern extent of the precipitation shield will likely be between I-76 and I-80 with virga to the north. A strong convergence axis in northern Maine with increasing momentum transfer of air particles will favor cold air diving into the northern edge of the storm with favorable snow growth zones highlighted as followed. High resolution models are indicative of increasing dendritic growth along the Pennsylvania turnpike south to northern Maryland with H85s temperatures near (-5)-(-8)C during a majority of the event. With excellent snow growth levels around 10000ft, ratios in this region will be in the realm of 12:1 or 15:1 making for a fluffy snowfall once again. Take for instance KMDT (Middletown/Harrisburg, PA) QPF totals from December 19 at .66in, yet 8.8in of snow was officially measured. Keep in mind ratios are defined by temperatures aloft, and not boundary layer (2m-10m) temperatures. Another mesoscale feature will likely occur from Washington DC northward into northern Maryland and perhaps southern Pennsylvania with the formation of coastal/surface front which will serve as an axis for snowfall rates near 2-3in/hr. Finally the formation of a CIS/CCB band is likely towards central and northern Maryland also as a potential gravity wave forms in central Virginia along the northern right front quadrant north of the warm front as rising air parcels continue to rise and sink favoring anomalous precipitation rates. These mesoscale features will serve in isolated higher amounts of snowfall in the northern Middle Atlantic during the height of the event Friday night.

As pressure falls along the SLP track near the Virginia/North Carolina border increase to -3mb/hr, cyclogenesis will favor in a deformation axis towards Maryland and Virginia in particular adding an additional .5in of QPF that northern areas will not see in the precipitation shield. This axis will also be accompanied by strong vertical lift courtesy of the cold air covergence layer favoring mixing aloft allowing a transfer of winds to the surface with gusts over 35-40mph along the coast with blizzard thesholds being met potentially as far west as Annapolis.

As the low pulls away during the later half of Saturday, precipitation will quickly end from west to east leaving a sigificant snowfall in its wake especially over Maryland and northern Virginia into northern Delaware. The northern edge of this precipitation shield is highly uncertain with guidance recently trending to the south courtesy of anomalous blocking, so at this point those from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward should be playing on the conservative route. There will likely be a sharp cutoff between the horizontal lines of Indiana, Pennsylvania-Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-Allentown, Pennsylvania and Butler, Pennsylvania-Williamsport, Pennsylvania-Scranton, Pennsylvania. This exact location is yet to be determined, but guidance suggests this may even sink south especially looking at foreign models. In any case elevation and orographic lift along with higher snow ratios may favor heavy snow along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The bullseye appears to be in northern Maryland from southern to central Hartford County and a country east and west of that. Isolated snow totals may be near 30-32in in this region. See more information below on snow totals. Also for those in southern Pennsylvania, watch for the slim possibility of a mesoscale band forming along the cold conveyor belt of the northern end of the precipitation shield. This sometimes is a common factor in terms of strong blocking with limited northern extent of QPF. This was noted recently from the past light to moderate snowfall that 'overperformed.' At this point the highest "bust" potential so to speak exists from Altoona to Harrisburg to Allentown to New York City. There will be sharp line between 12in and 1-2in. In any case this will be a high impact event, but fortunately the low will not be cutoff from the jet allowing for a general quick motion of the SLP out into the Atlantic with the duration of the storm only around 18hrs or so for most locations as the storm is out of here for many areas especially in Pennsylvania north of the deformation by noon. Stay tune for any updates and/or changes during the day Friday. Have a great day!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...

Farmville, Virginia - Ashland, Virginia - Warsaw, Virginia - Salisbury, Maryland - Ocean View, Delaware

*Note this line is a general estimation for precipitation type (rain vs. snow) during the height of the precipitation. As the deformation axis departs, this line will likely drop southward. Also during any intense convection correlated with a gravity wave development may favor brief periods of sleet especially towards La Plata, Maryland and the southern suburbs of Washington DC. Also south towards the Appalachians in North Carolina a major freezing rain/ice storm is likely to occur with QPF amounts in excess of .5in of pure freezing rain. North of this line by about 20mi will definitely have all snow.

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Impressive mesoscale banding in northern quadrant favoring isolated snow totals up to 30in in northern Maryland.
2. High winds near 40-60knots aloft will allow for mixing to filter gusts over 35mph especially within 50mi of the coast.
3. High impact on Friday evening commute with precipitation lasting through Saturday afternoon.
4. Heavy snow (+4in) will fall from western Virginia northward into southern New York state and southern Connecticut.
5. Sharp northern QPF gradient favoring a line horizontally across Pennsylvania between Mansfield, Pennsylvania and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Snow Map...

*Note the region at the 5-9in/12in line will more likely be in the range for 8-14in. There is a high bust potential in this event considering the sharp northern cutoff, so any swing of 25mi for the surface low track will change forecasts dramatically.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow, 18-26in isolated higher amounts
Baltimore, MD- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolate higher amounts
Salisbury, MD- Sleet/freezing rain/snow, 3-7in
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions, 14-22in isolated higher amounts
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow, 12-18in
Dover, DE- Heavy snow/sleet/freezing rain, 5-12in
Trenton, NJ- Heavy snow, 6-10in
New York City, NY- Moderate snow at times, 2-5in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Binghamton, NY- Cloudy with flurries, coating of snow
Albany, NY- Cloudy with flurries
Hartford, CT- Cloudy with light snow, C-1in
Concord, NH- Cloudy
Providence, RI- Cloudy
Worcester, MA- Cloudy
Boston, MA- Cloudy
Nantucket, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Hyannis, MA- Cloudy with light snow, C-3in
Portland, ME- Mostly cloudy
Bangor, ME- Partly cloudy
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Computer model mayhem can best be describing this entire scenario with striking differences for the northern edge of the QPF shield. The GFS/ECMWF combo seems to have the best consistency, but the NAM/ETA/MM5 seem a good deal further south highlighting strong confluence to the north. For now I took a general 1.0in QPF line from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Reading with 2.0in QPF along the Mason-Dixon line. This fits well with local SREFs except for a bit of tweaking. The biggest concern is the NAM and GGEM runs, but for now the NAM seems to have have some initiating issues illustrating 5 vortices of energy at the height of the storm indicative of QPF problems. It also has a east-southeast trajectory at one point which is suspicious to say the least. The GFS seems to have a better hold on the system, but looking back at similarities in the December 19th event, the GFS did have the precipitation shield well too far northwest with the NAM scoring on the chalkboard so this arises some concern. In any case high resolution models for the 0z cycle will be interesting, but probably siding more towards the NAM. I also took my .1in line about as far north as KUNV with little QPF towards IPT. In any case this event is marginal in terms of confidency so stay tuned to the latest.

After the storm...
Interesting potential lies ahead in the medium and long range as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to be well below normal negative values diving once again into off the charts territory. With a similar negative AO oriention I expect a constant feed of cold Canadian air into the northern half of the United States. With above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic blocking will continue to favor favorable conditions for east coast cyclogenesis and below normal temperatures. The first threat appears quickly on the horizon for Monday-Tuesday with ECMWF taking a miller B scenario with 6-10in amounts across the entire northeast on the 12z 2/4/10 run. The GFS takes a less amplified approach with light amounts scraping New England perhaps with some higher totals. In any case wavelengths have also favored this time period for an east coast storm threat. I have not really focused, as expected, on this scenario, but it is the next threat posed towards the east coast. Also towards Sunday-Tuesday upslope from weak shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes will favor 1-4in of light snow over the snow belts of northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands into Garret County, Maryland. Cold air advection will also be widespread across the northern Middle Atlantic with highs Sunday-Tuesday ranging 7-14F below normal into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits courtesy of 850mb temperatures around -10C or below and 1000-500mb thicknesses below 530dm. After the Monday-Tuesday threat, wavelengths favor a day 8 threat with foreign guidance such as the JMA posing a Miller A winter storm threat with a low pressure ejecting out of the gulf of Mexico. In any case the next two weeks are likely to feature well below normal temperatures with several threats of snow from coastals to clippers. On a side note Lake Erie surface ice has definitely increased especially towards the shallow portions of the lake near Cleveland so the heavy lake effect snow is likely done for the season.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 20.75in
Monthly Total- 43.25in
Seasonal Total- 61.35in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 43.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in

Weather wizard (Patriot News)Link.

Sure has been a long cold spell" is a lackluster comment you'd hear at a social gathering when a person can't think of anything else to say.

Not so with Zachary Labe. The 17-year-old junior at Central Dauphin High School is passionate about weather. So passionate that he's one of just 28 high school students who've been accepted for membership in the American Meteorological Society, the association for radio and television forecasters.

If that isn't passionate enough, there are the weather instruments in Labe's bedroom. They make noise. Day and night. One goes off if the temperature makes an abrupt change, another when a storm begins, and there are more.

Even if it's 2 a.m. and snow or rain snow begins, the alarm wakes Labe. In seconds he's out of bed, running through the upstairs hall yelling, "There's a storm!" And out he goes in the middle of it. In a rainstorm, he takes a lightning detector.

Among Labe's large collection of weather equipment is a top-of-the-line weather station that the federal government uses, but he doesn't use it. "It's not very accurate," he said.

After taking a National Weather Service class, Labe could get an account from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which gives him information to interpret for a weather forecast. And Labe is usually right on. In fact, his prediction is accurate more often than professional forecasters,' he said.

Take the night of Jan. 22-23. Several meteorologists said we'd have rainstorms, perhaps thunder. Labe's prediction said nothing about precipitation. Not a drop fell.

"It's impossible to be perfect in predicting," Labe said. "But you can be less imperfect than others."

Forecasts can't be perfect because forecasters make interpretations. NOAA's "super computers" take information such as wind velocity and humidity and use mathematical equations to transfer the results onto maps and graphs.

Labe interprets NOAA's information, figures out a forecast, then color codes several of NOAA's blank maps of the U.S. to indicate information including temperatures, the jet stream swish and humidity.

In 2007, at age 14, Labe started forecasting with about 10,000 other amateur meteorologists on the Web site Weather Underground -- www.wunderground.com -- under the name "Blizzard92," which he used because he was young and the Internet can be a dangerous place.

The folks at the California-based site noticed Blizzard92's accuracy and in 2009 sent Labe an e-mail asking if he'd be one of nine featured forecaster bloggers in the country, taking on Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Of course, he would.

As a featured blogger, Blizzard92 had to upload a photograph of himself. This took the cat that was his age right out of the bag. Not only were the Weather Underground people amazed that he was 17 and had expert knowledge, Labe received thousands of comments on the site.

And the other eight people selected? They all have degrees in meteorology.

Labe's interest in weather ignited long before he was 12. He often heard his grandparents and uncle discussing the weather. They were farmers, and weather was vital to their livelihood.

Labe didn't say a whole lot, but he started accumulating books on meteorology and weather history. He stayed up nights watching the skies during storms, recorded information in a weather journal and asked for a weather station. His parents bought him an inexpensive one to start. It, of course, led to more equipment.

Labe belongs to Skywarn Storm Spotter for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When there's a storm and tree branches fall or other damage happens, he reports it to NOAA.

Among his other memberships are the Mount Washington Weather Observation Service in New Hampshire and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, to which he sends precipitation amounts every 24 hours.


Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Major Winter Storm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow
Major Winter Storm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...
Significant snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
19.0in of snow...
Significant snowstorm...

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3568. Zachary Labe
1:30 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
I have a feeling model guidance is still a bit off with this system, although persistence shows the GFS handles northern stream shortwaves the best.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3567. weathergeek5
1:21 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
Quoting breald:



Ok another dumb question. How do you guys pull up those detailed forecast like zotty post?


The Dumb question is the one you don't ask!!

The link below is the homepage for the National Weather Service. You put your zip code in for the zip code box. After you do that it will have the forecast for your area. Scroll down to where it says forecast discussion then you will find the sources we use to find the analysis of the particular models or patterns.

Link
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
3566. pittsburghnurse
1:13 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
Will be watching this one. And probably the one after that, and the one after that...

We are just getting a good handle on snow removal here in the Burgh from the last two. Traffic is still kind of a mess. We've had alternating sun and fluffy snow all day. My kind of winter day. But really more accumulation is just not in my happy card deck.

So until tomorrow when we know more, I'll be wishing the models more south and east.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
3565. bwi
1:07 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
Quoting breald:



Ok another dumb question. How do you guys pull up those detailed forecast like zotty post?


I just go to the "discussion" section of the local NWS forecast. It's usually the most informative part of the forecast, if you can parse through the acronyms and shorthand expressions.

Here, for example is the LWX (Washington/Baltimore) discussion page.

I also like the HPC dicussions, although they often go over my head. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Most of the time I don't really want a pure forecast anyway -- I want to hear analysis from the experts about what scenarios they think might play out, which models they favor and why etc.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
3564. breald
12:18 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
Quoting P451:
Interesting NYC discussion, Zotty.

I guess Mount Holly as usual is out to lunch and behind the times.

We'll know better tomorrow afternoon. Models have flopped all over the place on this one so far. So to give this past model run any faith isn't the right thing to do at this time. Too early.

The trend seems to have evolved north and west but I still wouldn't discount it being too far N-W.






Ok another dumb question. How do you guys pull up those detailed forecast like zotty post?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
3562. zotty
12:10 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
out of NYC around 5pm-

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT DUE TO AN EXPECTED WINTRY MIX AT
THE COAST THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

FORECAST MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER
SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NEW YORK
CITY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF SHIFT IN THE
TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OUTCOME.
CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS INCREASING THAT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
3561. zotty
12:06 AM GMT on February 14, 2010
with regards to the poll and this winter, I have been reminded of "The Little Ice Age" by Brian Fagan. The usual Icelandic Low and Azores/Bermuda high switched up, causing unusually cold and snowy winters in the Eastern CONUS and Europe. It also happened during the Maunder minimum. I am not smart enough to know for sure what this is, but all I know is we don't know enough to know. You know?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
3557. zotty
11:24 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
ugh, i hope there is no mixing- I am 2 miles from I-95 placing me in the "I-95 corridor". I am more interested in what is in store in a week or two. Sully is so fired up I think he is going to explode...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
3556. Zachary Labe
10:04 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting MarylandGirl:
Blizz, thanks! We have had more than our share so I won't get upset about this one....maybe next weekend???????

Yep keep an eye on that next weekend. I will highlight that in my new blog I am working on currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3555. MarylandGirl
9:53 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Blizz, thanks! We have had more than our share so I won't get upset about this one....maybe next weekend???????
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
3553. Zachary Labe
9:24 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
MarylandGirl- Chances are slim for your area especially considering the north trend of the low allowing for warmer temperatures your direction for more of a snow to rain type scenario.

P451- I will definitely be calling for a chance of rain or snow for the NWS for your region. Most all guidance suggest a surface low track over or north of your location. With southeasterlies aloft and a lack of anticyclone to your north you need a farther south surface low track. Even the southern outlier GGEM has come a great deal farther north.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3552. originalLT
8:42 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
P451, I hate the way they write that--Partly Sunny, A chance of snow in the afternoon.... It should be written, --Increasing cloudyness with a chance of snow developing during the afternoon... Just bugs me, I duuno?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7443
3549. ednorton1
7:25 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting P451:


There was mention that it could potentially inject energy into the upcoming Monday night event.

It was an outlier to happen though.


How often do storms travel from east to west? Is it a rare event?
Quoting ednorton1:
Anyone been tracking the old nor-easter? Its still on satellite. Looks like it is in Northern Canada. Is there a chance it can come back down and hit US again or am I OUT OF MY MIND?
Member Since: February 5, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2
3547. Drakoen
6:51 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29918
3544. MarylandGirl
6:10 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Blizz, I just heard 6" for us in SO MD Monday nite. What do you think those chances are?
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
3543. Zachary Labe
5:24 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting shipweather:
so what's up for Monday?

GGEM/GFS/NAM 12z mean suggest a plowable snow from southcentral Pennsylvania up through northwest New Jersey to the Hudson Valley. Something to definitely watch and I will have more later today/tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3542. Hoynieva
5:20 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
NAM and GFS both take this next system right over Long Island...here we go again. If it goes as far North as NAM is suggesting, we will see some rain here in NYC mixing in with the snow, so I'm hoping just a little bit further South. This continuous stream of storms over the same area is extremely rare and we should all enjoy it while it's still happening...probably won't see this again for years.

And about that last storm coming down from Canada, it does indeed seem to be tracking back this way, down through the Midwest and on Eastward, eventually hooking up with this next system. That's pretty crazy in itself.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
3541. shipweather
4:57 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
so what's up for Monday?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
3540. synthman19872003
4:43 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Well I ended up with 3" of a fluffy dry snow, which by the way is an unusual type of snow for my location; it's usually heavy and wet. Anyway, it looks like folks in SC and eastern NC were the snowy sweet spots, and I bet they're having a BLAST in it! =D
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
3538. bwi
4:16 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
I'm starting to get interested in next weekend into the beginning of the following week -- Feb 21-22 sometime around there. My impression has been that ECMWF has been fairly good in the day 5-8 range at least getting the general ideas? Seems to show another Gulf storm coming up the east coast? Our snowpack is still very deep and dense -- not going anywhere even with some sunshine this weekend and next week.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
3537. ednorton1
4:09 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Anyone been tracking the old nor-easter? Its still on satellite. Looks like it is in Northern Canada. Is there a chance it can come back down and hit US again or am I OUT OF MY MIND?
Member Since: February 5, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2
3534. Zachary Labe
2:47 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
12z NAM introduces mixing issues from DCA to NYC. Watch the surface low track for those farther south and east especially along I-95.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3533. breald
2:10 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting P451:
Here we go again?

HPC for Monday night's storm:





Hey P what do those numbers mean?

Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
3532. Stormfront
1:20 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Very wise statement P451. Considering that we have been keeping weather records for about...137 years, and the earth has been around for about 37 billion years, I'd say it's a safe bet that it just might be a recurring trend every, say 2 or 3 thousand years, and considering intelligent man has only been on the planet for a couple thousand years, I wouldn't panic at this point!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
3527. Followingseas
3:13 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC IS TIMING. 12Z GFS IS STILL 6 TO 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
NAM/EURO. DEEP LOW PRESSURE /CLOSED AT ALL SIGNIFICANT LEVELS/ TO
CROSS SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE DELMARVA. CONFIDENCE OF SNOW IS HIGH
ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
/CATEGORICAL FOR THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY/ WITH
LIKELIES CONTINUING FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS. THIS STORM IS A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...SO
ONLY ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM LOOKS TO BE STEADY...AIDED ALONG BY A
STRONG SWLY JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
CWA. SHOULD A LATER TIMING OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...SOME WRAP-
AROUND SNOW COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
3526. Followingseas
3:01 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
I heard this afternoon that Hawaii did in fact recently have a snow event and there was some hope that there was still some lingering snow in some areas. An interviewee in Hawaii was on a trek on Mauna Loa (or Moana Kea, I forget which) to find a patch. So there still might be hope for snow in all 50 states.
Member Since: February 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
3525. cyclonebuster
2:32 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Are we going to lower SSTs?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
3524. bwi
1:25 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Hey Maryland, I just took a minute to look at the 18z GFS, and it looks like it brings at least a chance of light snow to southern MD late tonight and tomorrow. Sure enough, NWS has now put in a 20% chance of snow tomorrow morning down there.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
3523. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
***Please take note a new WUNDERPOLL has been posted on the right side of the screen. Feel free to vote your opinion. Thanks!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3522. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:19 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

It might of snowed there on Mauna Loa above 8500ft. They record snow every year, although I have not heard of anything recently.


No, I'm for sure. Peaks in Hawaii are experiencing a snow drought. It was 49 out of 50. But there are no records that can say when the last 50 of 50 or 49 of 50 occurred. Best guess is 1977, but there aren't any records of snow in SC for the 49 of 50 or 50 of 50 dates. Everyone relish the uniqueness of this day.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
3521. Zachary Labe
1:14 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


No, news said snow in 49 of 50 states. It DID NOT snow in Hawaii. All 50 states . . . pffffff.

It might of snowed there on Mauna Loa above 8500ft. They record snow every year, although I have not heard of anything recently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
3520. SilverShipsofAndilar
12:56 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting goofyrider:
Snow blowers for sale don't think you can find many in USA

news tonight says snow on ALL 50 states.

Heavy Snow project report on igloo yet?


No, news said snow in 49 of 50 states. It DID NOT snow in Hawaii. All 50 states . . . pffffff.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
3519. goofyrider
12:04 AM GMT on February 13, 2010
Snow blowers for sale don't think you can find many in USA

news tonight says snow on ALL 50 states.

Heavy Snow project report on igloo yet?
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2732
3518. buggyinitscripts
11:46 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Wow it has in the morning calls Thursday edition the other day the greatest snowfalls for Allentown.

Allentown top 6 snowstorms according to The Morning Call are...

1. 26 inches January 7-8 1996
2. 25.2 inches February 11-12 1983 (Also the 24 inches that fell on the 11 is a single day snowfall record)
3. 24 inches April 29, 1874! (NWS official records date back to 1922)
4. 22 inches February 16-17 (Happy birthday mom (17th). How do you like a record snowstorm?
5. 20.3 inches March 19-21 1958
6. The latest storm, 17.8 inches February 9-10 2010 (official NWS)

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
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Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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