Concerns towards end of the week threat...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:56 PM GMT on January 24, 2010

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 1/24)
Perhaps one of the most skilled nature artists of the twentieth century is Ned Smith. Up along Berrysburg Mountain (elev ~1500ft) east of Millersburg in Dauphin County is the Ned Smith Center Link, which I make frequent visits throughout the year to see the special exhibits and galleries. Also at the environment center are a plethora of wildlife nature trails along the base of the mountain and up to about 1200ft also. There also lies the Wiconisco Creek, which is a well known trout stream in the region. Anyways recently Ned Smith's winter paintings were displayed for the special feature gallery capturing the typical winter in Pennsylvania. Ned Smith grew up in northern Dauphin County hiking through the mountains and exploring the beauty of wildlife's adaptations to the seasons. "Gone for the Day" is an interesting read detailing a diary depiction of wildlife interactions through the seasons over a several year period also containing some of his famous sketches. In any case through his 'Winter Color' exhibit the essence and beauty of winter is captured with the snow fresh fallen snow with rabbit and deer tracks intermingling each other. I always envision myself years from now in a wonderful log home up north of State College near Philipsburg with the whistling of winter's winds, crackling of the fireplace, and calmness of the fresh falling snow. For whatever reason, snow seems to cause an euphoric tone allowing for a quiet distance landscape as sound waves absorb into the snow. Life just goes by at a much slower and relaxed pace during a snowstorm as the winds whistle through the cracks. In any case if you are thinking of day trip to take the family, try the Ned Smith Center to see some of the special exhibits located about 20-30 minutes north of Harrisburg. Have a wonderful day!!!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 1/24)
Impressive low level jet winds near 90knots over southern New England will allow for a strong influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds will increase aloft with a tad easterly influence at the surface with some Atlantic moisture, especially east of the Appalachians. Recent HIRES NMM/WRF models indicate a 980mb low migrating northeast through the Great Lakes dragging along a trailing cold front. Anomalous PWATs increasing +3-4SD will allow for precipitative waters near 1.5in. With a slightly easterly component downwind areas of the Appalachians will feel the brunt of the heavy rainfall with model consensus QPF ranging from 1.5-2.5in. Courtesy of the impressive low level jet structure, I am nosing towards the higher end of consensus. Flash Flood Guidance is generally around 1in/12hr, which is very low. Flooding will likely occur with a moderate threat towards much of Pennsylvania with a lesser threat to the south. WRF simulated radar also indicates the potential for embedded convection Sunday evening causing rainfall rates in excess of 1in/hr for some locations particularly towards the Delmarva and southern Maryland region. But low inversion heights and cold air damming should inhibit thunder chances north of the Washington, DC - Salisbury, Maryland line. A few analogs arise considering the anomalous 700mb moisture field, including the heavy rain stratiform event of January of 1996. But with little to no river ice and snow pack confined to the mountains, flooding in this situation will be of no comparison, but QPF totals may be slightly similar. The height of the heavy rain will impact the northern Middle Atlantic Sunday night will localized areas of flooding towards Monday morning. There may also be briefly some light main stem river flooding especially over northern areas. Moderate flooding may occur with smaller streams and creeks also especially those that contain ice. The highest flood threat is for northeastern Pennsylvania. As the inversion erodes courtesy of the jet dynamics, temperatures should be on the rise throughout the entire northern Middle Atlantic with MOS likely a bit too cool, therefore I favor highs near 60F Monday morning for many areas along and south of I-76. By late Monday morning the cold front will pass through the region with temperatures falling to the low to mid 40s by dusk. Winds will shift to the west as H85s temperatures fall to below -5C over the northern Middle Atlantic causing a few orographically enhanced snow showers, especially towards Tuesday with a brief lake effect snow fetch. Temperatures generally look to deviate around normal for most of the week before colder air moves in by Thursday and Friday where temperatures fall below normal. The lake effect snow will diminish with veering wind profiles aloft as weak upper level ridging noses in towards Wednesday. By the end of the week a synoptic precipitation event approaches the region with polar air infiltrating from the north setting the stage for a major winter storm along the east coast in the form of an overrunning event transitioning to coastal low.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"7-Day Zonal Forecast Outlooks"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware)(Updated 1/24)
Monday- Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures to spike to near 20F above normal over the entire region with upper 50s to low 60s along and south of the Pennsylvania turnpike into Maryland and Delaware with low to mid 50s north of that boundary. The heaviest rain will generally progressing east of the region by mid morning as the cold front moves east through the PA/NJ border by late morning. Additional rainfall amounts will generally be confined to areas along and east of I-81 ranging from .25-.35in. Minor to moderate flooding may be ongoing along may local streams/creeks and in areas of poor drainage for the Monday morning commute so plan ahead more time commuting. As the colder air filters into the region while winds shifts to the west, temperatures will diurnally fall throughout the day into the low to mid 40s for eastern areas by dusk and to around 32F west of I-81 by dusk with light snow flurries over the snow belt regions. Monday night will feature a few flurries over the mountains with breezy northwest winds gusting to 25mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 30s in Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania to mid to upper 20s for areas to the north and west with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday- Northwest winds will persist throughout the day with strato-cumulus across the western mountains above 1500ft west of the Blue Ridge front. Snow showers will be ongoing over the region with a westerly flow. But slightly unfavorable wind trajectories will allow for little to no snow accumulation during the daytime hours for the snow belts. Elsewhere downsloping winds will carve skies for partly cloudy conditions to clear skies along the I-95 corridor. High temperatures will range from the low 30s above 1000ft to low 40s near Washington DC to Philadelphia, PA. Tuesday night will feature a bit more northwest trajectory to the winds favoring in lake effect snow showers throughout the region with accumulations around 1-4in from McHenry, Maryland to Erie, Pennsylvania in the snow belt regions. Western favoring slopes in the southern Laurel Highlands will see the higher end of the accumulations in comparison to areas farther north and at a lower elevation. Lows will finally nudge back towards more seasonal values ranging from 22-29F over the northern Middle Atlantic.

Wednesday- Weak ridging aloft and high pressure will nose into the region for a generally pleasant day with partly cloudy conditions to generally sunny skies. Temperatures will remain near seasonal values with highs ranging from the low to upper 30s depending on elevation and geographic location. No additional snow accumulations are likely over the lake effect snow belts other than a few morning flurries before skies begin to clear. Wednesday night will feature cold temperatures with winds light and variable along with clear skies with lows ranging from the teens to low 20s for most locations, which should verify a few degrees below normal. Across Maryland and Delaware cirrus clouds will begin to stream over the region as an overrunning precipitation event approaches the region. Low temperatures will be mitigated by the cloud deck above allowing for lows in the mid to upper 20s. No precipitation is likely for southern areas through at least daybreak Thursday.

Thursday and Friday- A shortwave riding along a stationary boundary in the southern Middle Atlantic will be the catalyst for potential winter weather event favoring overrunning precipitation. Current prognostics indicate a strong buffering high pressure/PV to the north, but taken model biases into account precipitation may verify into the northern Middle Atlantic region. Many questions remain uncertain but a winter weather event is certainly possible along with a potential for this system to be suppressed towards the Southeast. In general precipitation chances remain above normal in this period along with below normal temperatures. Stay tuned for updates through the rest of the work week!

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 1/24)
Decaying frazil panes along main stem rivers in Pennsylvania through Maryland only continue to deteriorate as heavy rain approaches the region with hydrology concerns. Currently about 100% of the Susquehanna River main channel remains open even up through locations such as Williamsport on northward to Scranton up through New York State. The western branch towards Lock Haven as a few small ice jams along raised islands, but those remain of little concern. The Alleghany and Delaware also remain free of flowing ice courtesy of warmer temperatures. The height of the river ice expansion was towards the 7-10th of January, before a warmer pattern ensued. Also towards local streams and creeks, some of the slower moving and shallow beds remain frozen especially off of northern sides of the ridge tops. Ice is also along most local farm ponds from western Maryland through all of Pennsylvania. But looks may be deceiving as ice is melting from the bottom to the top with thicknesses very shallow in some regions. The best advice is to avoid all local waterways including ice fishing for the next week and a half before the colder air allows the thicknesses to grow once again especially for ice fishing. Ski conditions are also deteriorating as heavy rain approaches the region with warmer temperatures. The height of the ski seasons looks to have occurred during the second week of January in which much of the Laurel Highlands received 2-3ft of light powdery snow with snow ratios near 25:1. After the heavy rain, colder air will filter into the region and slopes will likely be repaired by ski crews. Lake effect snow may resume towards Tuesday as the flow shifts to the northwest with winds aloft near 30knots allowing for the transfer of moisture. Lake Erie remains about 70% free of ice, so that is plenty for widespread available moisture for an upslope event from Tuesday to Wednesday. NAM QPF is generally around .1-.25in for the favored snow belts favoring the Laurel Highlands. Snow accumulations are likely around 1-4in for the Laurel Highlands up through the northwestern snow belts favoring resorts such as Seven Springs, Four Seasons Hidden Valley, and Blue Knob. Also down through Garret County, Maryland ski resorts will likely see 1-3in of fresh powdery snow to restore the slopes after the high moisture content from the rain. A large-scale synoptic snow threat does loom towards the end of the week so generally after Tuesday ski conditions will be on the improve.

-Link to official reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 1/24)
The core of cold air will transition towards western Pennsylvania Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday. 1000-500mb thickness are progged by the GFS to be around 525-530dm in this time frame with decent Omega forcing. But 0-6km shear values near 40knots may not allow for organized banding, but more cellular activity. In any case 15:1 snow ratios with the dendritic growth layer around -12C will allow for a powdery snow with wind trajectories ranging from 280degrees on Tuesday to about 315degrees on Wednesday. Snow accumulations are likely to be minor and more of a nuisance but some of the western facing slopes in Westmoreland, Cambria, Somerset, and Garret Counties are likely to receive up to 3-4in of snow, which the valleys generally receive an inch or so. Northwestern Pennsylvania along the Alleghany plateau will likely receive 1-2in of snow favoring Erie, Crawford, and Warren Counties. As high pressure moves north of the region into southern New York towards Thursday, the lake effect fetch will shear out with only flurries expected. But a synoptic system approaches from Thursday to Saturday. As this low pressure pulls off the coast, once again winds will briefly become favorable for lake effect snow across the Laurel Highlands and northwestern Pennsylvania towards Sunday and Monday of next week. Nothing appears overly striking on model guidance for that event, so once again minor amounts are likely. It appears the largest orographic/upslope event has likely already occurred this winter. GFS QPF totals likely will allow for a 7 day total of 3-6in of lake effect snow in the snow belt regions favoring Somerset County above 2000ft.

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 1/24)
The long term poses some interesting possibilities if one extrapolates teleconnection patterns and monsoonal positions across the eastern Hemisphere. A southern stream system will migrate across the continental United States after moving inland in southern California and transition along a thermal boundary Wednesday near the southern Mississippi Valley. Warm air from south rises above the cold air to the north along the boundary creating a classic warm air advection precipitation event towards the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile the embedded shortwave along the thermal boundary strengthens slightly moving east-northeast. Farther north a 1024mb high noses southward with geopotential heights over the poles noting a critical placement of the Polar Vortex. This PV will prevent the inland track through the Ohio Valley, but exact position also may suppress this event. As the shortwave advances east the 850hPa low appears to track across central or southern Virginia with the heaviest precipitation falling north of the low track. H5 wavelength analog patterns are favorable for snow with most analogs acclaiming a high potential for 4in+ of snow for KDCA. Model biases appear evident in this situation with the GFS typically underestimating the WAA precipitation with isentropic lift. GGEM past verification usually does pretty well with 850hPa low position, while the GFS typically trends northward in the stationary boundary position therefore impacting the track of the S/W. Recent 5-8 day NCEP verification indicates the ECMWF leading the pack in 500mb wavelength verification with the UKMET, GFS, and GGEM behind with similar accuracy numbers. GFS tends to hold these PVs too far south also. Impressive thermal gradient along geopotential heights in southern Middle Atlantic will allow for the isentropic lift and frontogenesis to aid in pretty heavy QPF, but the question is where. I have no doubt in my mind someone will get a pretty decent thump of snow along the east coast. In general watch the strength of the shortwave when it enters the West Coast in 60hrs along with tracking the thermal boundary and PV position. For those north of the Mason-Dixon Line suppression looks to definitely be the highest threat against the storm system and I put probabilities for that occurring a bit higher than an actual snow event. Towards DCA the synoptic setup is a bit more favorable. In general a widespread precipitation is likely to occur on the cold dense side of the boundary towards the Thursday to Saturday time period. Of other note the models seem indicative of a second wave amplifying along the coastline from Hatteras towards the Delmarva as high pressure carves a track cone in this region. This would only enhance precipitation furthermore towards Saturday. Stay tuned for this event as teleconnections also support this with an amplified negative EPO ridge and negative to positive trending NAO. By the way three events I have been slightly bullish on a week in advance including the December 19th blizzard which was nailed nearly two weeks in advance along with the New Year's multi-wave event, which still caused a light to moderate snow followed by ice. This event is the third event I am highlighting as potentially pretty significant.

As far as the rest of the long term pattern goes, I have extremely high optimism towards February. In fact the period from 2/7 to about 3/5 may pertain to some very impressive storms across the continental United States. Teleconnections show a step down pattern, which coincides wonderfully with my January forecast down below. A step down pattern is where a series of cold fronts gradually carve colder and colder air with a transient pattern before a pattern finally sets in stone. This occurred back in the end of November and beginning of December. This is already evident where each storm along the east coast, excluding the current Great Lakes cutter, verifies colder and colder. The MLK storm was snow generally for New England and the higher elevations, then the recent overrunning event carved ice for the Middle Atlantic, and now finally a snow threat is going to be possible. While the flow generally remains zonal for the first week of February, a deep trough may set in courtesy of the anomalous negative AO, which will build in once again. As the MJO remerges into stages 6, 7, 8 we should see an increase in cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard. Teleconnections and wavelength patterns are all setting the stage for a snowy February. Also of interest is the ongoing an increasing stratospheric warming event, which correlates to below normal temperature typically for much of the northern United States and Canada.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Note I am only posting this tower cam until snow starts falling over the northern Middle Atlantic, lol. For now we can all be jealous of the Alaskan snow.

"Monthly Outlook" (January)
In general I am extremely pleased with my December Outlook. While forecasting for long term, it is important not to focus on the minute details, but look at the general idea and/or perspective. The temperature anomaly outlook for the month came in a shy warm with forecasts for (+.5)-(-.5). In general across the northern Middle Atlantic, temperature anomalies for the month were around (-.5)-(-1.0). Now diving in a bit deeper, the general temperature trends were forecast near accurately. The increasing warmth around Christmas went ideally with the forecast of warmer anomalies towards the end of the month courtesy of some weak undefined southeast ridging. In actual verification a La Nina like pattern for a few days allowing for a large Great Lakes storm complex with temperature anomalies over the east near +5.0 for the time period. Also what seems to be accurate is the idea of a cold regime towards the beginning of January and in near verification it appears an arctic blast is headed across the northern two thirds of the United States. In general the temperature forecast was relatively accurate with a slight warm bias for the overall anomaly. Precipitation for December was again a shy warm with snowfall across the entire Northern Middle Atlantic averaging well above normal. But once again diving deeper into the forecast, the forecast for first accumulating snow on December 5 went perfectly with a general 1-5in over the northern Middle Atlantic. Also my best forecast here on Wunderground occurred this month with the advertisement of the December 19 KU storm nearly 10-12 days in advance. But my forecast for normal snowfall and above normal snowfall over the northwest fell a tad too dry. Once again I am pleased for December. Now we look towards January...

Temperature- January will be an interesting month. Teleconnections point to in general a well below normal month. Interestingly enough the Arctic Oscillation Index is towards record values of below -5 and -6. In fact the CPC had to enlarge their AO index chart to include values as low as -6. An interesting of note was also accompanied by similar values and that would be 1976-1977, which was one of the coldest winters on record for a majority of the northern United States. Also the NAO is diving through negative values and as this closed low becomes cutoff towards the Gulf of Maine up through Nova Scotia and Newfoundland towards January 1, this will reestablish a more favorable 50/50 low position allowing with retrograding the negative NAO towards more west-based. This all may allow for a favorable storm track most of this month along with steep troughing over the east coast. Looking though at long range H85 temperature anomalies they are showing above normal temperatures towards Canada. This may have implications farther down the road for a temporary relief from the cold. Currently it appears my forecast will generally appeal to an arctic blast towards the first two weeks of January with perhaps a few record numbers being broken especially across the lower Middle Atlantic where ECMWF and GFS numbers indicate H85 anomalies near -3SD. Towards the last two weeks of the month may be a more thaw-like pattern as the cold air retrogrades back across the arctic before another 'step down' pattern towards February. Keep in mind considering January climatology even occasion warm patterns favor snow. Overall anomalies for the month I am going pretty cold with (-1.5)-(-2.5) for the entire Northern Middle Atlantic.

Precipitation- Forecasts for monthly precipitation are generally the most difficult as one large storm system can throw a monkey wrench into the forecast. This was evident back in December where the historical Middle Atlantic snowstorm caused many areas in Virginia and parts of Maryland to receive nearly their average seasonal snow total in one event. But considering an Arctic blast poised to enter the region along with a cutoff low allowing for a cyclonic flow for nearly a week, it is a likely call for above normal snowfall for northern and western areas especially towards the snowbelts. This also includes western Maryland too from Frostburg on westward. Being an arctic air mass, dew points are usually dry and storm systems are typically suppressed, but considering the El Nino climatology and brief warmer temperatures towards the end of the month normal to above normal snowfall is likely for a majority of the northern Middle Atlantic. I do not have any storm dates currently other than lake effect from January 1-6.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2009-2010... Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.00in
Monthly Total- 2.1in
Seasonal Total- 18.1in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 11.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper

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636. TheRasberryPatch
10:41 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
another cold day in the LSV and the temps are dropping fast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
635. synthman19872003
9:35 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
That storm next weekend has the potential to give me more snow, though I think it'll be a close call, probably more of a "VA northward" type of snow. Though after all this snow we just had I'm not sure if I want any more either Huri LOL, at least not for a couple of weeks...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
634. hurigo
9:15 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Thank you Blizz!
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
633. Zachary Labe
8:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
hurigo- The next few precipitation events look to be rain down towards your region, so that is good for you.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
632. hurigo
8:46 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Oh Blizz,
I can't take this any more! There has been some melt where the sun shone but it's awful out there trying to walk on ICE. A couple of inches of snow that would melt the next day would have been fine. PLEASE tell me it isn't going to snow again on Tuesday and PLEASE tell me that we probably won't get any snow next weekend. I will gladly donate ALL of my snow to Heavy.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
631. weathergeek5
8:27 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
This is the paper topic:

Choose one of the photographs in the selection from Camera Lucida. Write an essay in which you present, first Barthes discussion of it (with your discussion and commentary). Provide your discussion, one that best represents your experience of and/or commitment to the photograph. Your discussion should at least be as long as his. Then when you are done write about the differences. You are different people, to be sure, but think about the differences as representative. You represent a particular generation, a particular set of experiences with photographs. A particular stage in a career and perhaps Barthes represents something quite different.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
630. Zachary Labe
8:20 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
weathergeek5- Hahaha... try to get it done early I suppose to focus in on the fun later in the week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
629. HeavySnow
8:18 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
How about all rain for say...Richmond. Heavy Snow for heavysnow.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
628. weathergeek5
8:18 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
By the way watch the midweek event. With a clipper and some coastal norlun influence C-2in could occur for the entire northern Middle Atlantic with areas towards Delaware and eastern Maryland south through eastern Virginia perhaps seeing 1-3in.


Oh man!!! I will not be able to concentrate on my schoolwork. I have to crank out a paper still. I may have to shut this pc down and turn off the net on my laptop.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
627. HeavySnow
8:17 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
I know that blizz. But I will get worked up! 4 feet baby! Not to mention my 1-3 Tuesday. 3 feet minimum! 6 days out? who cares. Hype, hype, hype!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
626. Zachary Labe
8:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
HeavySnow- Anybody's guess? Although really at this point I would not get too worked up on what anything says being 6 days away.

RkTec- Ugh, just brilliant.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
625. HeavySnow
8:13 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Now THAT'S a snow hole. Ouch for you guys. Wow. That looks like photoshop. Sheesh. Sorry about that chief..
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
624. RkTec
8:07 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Satellite view of the Lehigh Valley/Harrisburg/NYC/Long Island snow hole. Saw it posted on Eastern.

Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
623. HeavySnow
8:07 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
But at what point?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
622. Zachary Labe
8:05 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
HeavySnow- I doubt it though for later this week. With model prognostics showing 850hPa low tracking into Kentucky, that is a rule of thumb for changing to plain rain at some point along I-95. I will explain more later in my new blog tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
621. HeavySnow
8:02 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Sounds like I may be in the right spot again. nice
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
620. Zachary Labe
8:01 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
thanks for the heads up Blizz. is that a continuing push of cold air?

No, not really. It will just allow temperatures to remain uniform with highs in the mid 30s most of the week. The nights this week will be cold though, tonight may be very chilly actually.


***I still am compiling data so new blog not out until later tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
619. shipweather
7:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
I've been informed that the snow coating began around exit 8 on I-81 north of Greencastle. So about 20 miles south of me. Amazing stuff.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
618. TheRasberryPatch
7:46 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
thanks for the heads up Blizz. is that a continuing push of cold air?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
617. Zachary Labe
7:40 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
By the way watch the midweek event. With a clipper and some coastal norlun influence C-2in could occur for the entire northern Middle Atlantic with areas towards Delaware and eastern Maryland south through eastern Virginia perhaps seeing 1-3in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
616. flattyboy50
7:33 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Your welcome ,Blizz. I enjoy your blogs very much.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
615. TheRasberryPatch
7:31 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
i must say that when we get 20" or more the storms usually stall for almost 20 hours before moving off. to stall for 2 or even 3 days would be monumental.

snow along the gulf coast for the second week of Feb? wow, that would be almost historic. the people at Augusta won't want to hear that. from what i hear the water the azaleas with warm water for 4-6 weeks to make sure the azaleas are blooming for The Masters.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
614. Zachary Labe
7:23 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
flattyboy50- Thanks for verifying that. I have a decent memory when it comes to the large scale idea of past events, but details become indistinctable sometimes.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
613. flattyboy50
7:13 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Hi Blizz, It was the Mar 6-9 1962 storm. Ver severe on the DelMarVa, NJ, And Long Island.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
612. Zachary Labe
7:03 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
ECMWF has a moderate snowstorm for many areas with central Pennsylvania being target for most QPF. It then has a historic cold air mass progged for the second week in February with snow to the gulf coast, what a run!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
611. Zachary Labe
7:01 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Good afternoon all!!! I am shooting for a new blog by 5pm; for now I have some research to do for it. Anyways there was a snowstorm in 1962 I believe that stalled just off the coast, but really I think the GFS is up to its typical incorrect antics. It also has a bias of not allowing enough QPF in the II quadrant.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
610. RkTec
6:09 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Recon Planes will be flying starting tomorrow to collect data for the models to injest.

..PAC WINTER STORM RECON FLIGHTS HAVE BEEN REQUESTED FOR THIS
GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SYSTEM AND THE ERN PAC LOW WITH FLIGHTS
OUT OF JAPAN AND AK WHICH WILL BE FLOWN MON INTO WED WITH DATA
GETTING INTO THE MODELS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
609. shipweather
5:57 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
I think everyone is staying pretty level about this so far. The last storm threw a wrench into a lot of things.

30 miles south of Ship people have had an amazing winter....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
608. OceanEffect2010
5:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
I like the 00z Canadian solution best.
607. OceanEffect2010
5:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Storm track will be further east and north then the 12z GGEM, GFS and 00z EURO.
606. OceanEffect2010
5:50 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting Mason803:


and the hypeing begins lol


Yeah, well I am outlining the potential this pattern is giving us.
605. TrentonThunder
5:37 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
He's probably creating it now since he hasn't commented since 10:30 am.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
604. shipweather
5:36 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
State College Discussion as of 12:02 pm


MED RANGE ENS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL OF A SIG EAST
COAST STORM BY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. HOWEVER...DUE TO INHERENT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY SO FAR OUT...WILL ONLY BUMP POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY
FROM PREV PACKAGE.

Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
603. HeavySnow
5:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
I've lived in that snow hole for years. I've dragged it around with me wherever I've gone. You guys stole my snow hole! You can keep it. Hahahahahahahaha

On to another monster storm for DC. And others, I'll share.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
602. shipweather
5:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Blizz I'm in Shippensburg now (since jan. 15th) since this is where I go to school, but I like to keep an eye on the Kutztown weather.

A teammate of mine is heading down to VA today and I asked him to let me know when on 81 he see's snow. I guess about 25 miles south, could be less.

When's your next update concerning this next system?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
601. TrentonThunder
5:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Wow, 12Z GFS has low developing at the SC Coast at 1008 MB at 6:00 PM Friday, and then taking 72 hours to reach a position offshore and east of the DelMarVa at 984 MB at 6:00 PM Monday!

If that scenario comes true and it hugs the coast a bit more, YIKES!!!

I'd expect something less than that, but this week is gonna drive me nuts, I know it...

BLIZZ... It seems to me the GFS is keeping the QPF wrapped very tightly around the low. Any explanation?

I'm wondering if any of the classic looping - retrograding of the low is possible with that type of stale movement. It looks like it has some potential to be bigger than the big boys! (I hope the models aren't vastly overdoing it.)

I will surely say that in my 21 years of studying and observing the weather that I've never witnessed a Low that moved that slow.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
600. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:42 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting upweatherdog:


It was a LOL last night.....when it had 42 inches of snowfall over the I81 corridor.


42 inches of snow would be awesome. Make a pot of chili, and enjoy the peace and quiet of central PA being completely shut down for 2 or 3 days. Nothing wrong with that. And it would be fun to watch my Jack Russell Terrier chase my Golden Retriever through 42 inches of fresh powder.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
599. upweatherdog
4:38 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


That map is not an LOL, it's a POP (Please, oh please!).


It was a LOL last night.....when it had 42 inches of snowfall over the I81 corridor.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
597. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:20 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting Mason803:


there's another site for that. HM or JB will lead the way lol


Nah, Blizz's system is better. First, he makes a REAL forecast (unlike Margusity or Bastardi), then we make comments about the forecast to try to learn how the hell he's so smart about the weather until there's nothing legitimate left to say about it, then we start hype-commenting about how the models are trending both north and west and how we still have a good chance at significant snow, then when the storm has absolutely no way of getting anywhere near central PA we start wish-casting. Best way to talk about the weather. I think Blizz actually posted a whole hilarious blog about it.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
596. Mason803
4:16 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


I'm just going to say what we all feel but no one else has the courage to say: I LIVE FOR HYPE.


there's another site for that. HM or JB will lead the way lol
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
595. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:05 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting Mason803:


and the hypeing begins lol


I'm just going to say what we all feel but no one else has the courage to say: I LIVE FOR HYPE.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
594. synthman19872003
3:56 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Yeah Blizz, judging by the visible satellite, it appears that the decent snow basically stopped at the Mason/Dixon line LOL! You were so close, but no cigar :/

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
593. Mason803
3:51 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting OceanEffect2010:
Blizzard I am in the snow hole too on that map you posted. This region will see major snows from the weekend storm this upcoming week. Confidence is not there yet, but if the NAO block comes in further west you can shift that phasing storm further east on the 00z EURO. Hybrid Miller A/B will take care of the snow hole problems. I also think a combination of the 00z Canadian and EURO seems plausible at this time frame. A major northern stream shortwave will carry a strong Alberta Clipper or Manitoba Mauler into the Great Lakes and then into the Mid Atlantic where the storm then phases with the southern jet stream (phase 8 MJO) system coming from the GOM and create a bombing slow moving blizzard for the East Coast, again this is the full potential within this pattern. We get that -NAO Greenland block more towards west based we are in business for a record breaking storm system. This is a case in my opinion where the 00z Canadian could be underdoing the storm's lowest pressure. A rarity, and bold statement, but this pattern has the earmarks of a potential monster.


and the hypeing begins lol
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
592. OceanEffect2010
3:43 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Blizzard I am in the snow hole too on that map you posted. This region will see major snows from the weekend storm this upcoming week. Confidence is not there yet, but if the NAO block comes in further west you can shift that phasing storm further east on the 00z EURO. Hybrid Miller A/B will take care of the snow hole problems. I also think a combination of the 00z Canadian and EURO seems plausible at this time frame. A major northern stream shortwave will carry a strong Alberta Clipper or Manitoba Mauler into the Great Lakes and then into the Mid Atlantic where the storm then phases with the southern jet stream (phase 8 MJO) system coming from the GOM and create a bombing slow moving blizzard for the East Coast, again this is the full potential within this pattern. We get that -NAO Greenland block more towards west based we are in business for a record breaking storm system. This is a case in my opinion where the 00z Canadian could be underdoing the storm's lowest pressure. A rarity, and bold statement, but this pattern has the earmarks of a potential monster.
591. TheRasberryPatch
3:42 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
that is hilarious Blizz - the snow map you were right
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
590. OceanEffect2010
3:36 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
cchamp6- After your recent blockbuster winters, it is time you get a taste of the Middle Atlantic, hahaha. No in any case the next storm threat will not have the polar and dry air this recent storm dealt with, therefore opening more opportunities.


Blizzard, this is the storm we have been waiting for, confidence will definitely increase once the Tuesday models come in. Key to look for is the evolving Greenland Block, the position and strength.
589. Zachary Labe
3:26 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
cchamp6- With a moderate to strong El Nino, this pattern has been weird to say the least. Even in the anomalous El Nino of the late 90s, there were plentiful coastal storms, while warm, but they caused moisture up the entire east coast. I guess you can thank the record low arctic oscillation for all of this.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
588. cchamp6
3:21 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
LOL Blizz. Ok Ok so maybe its just not our turn. Just doesnt seem right to have the cold and many coastals yet only get these 2-4 inch deals. Of course Feb and March are famous for blockbuster storms around my area. Seems the biggest snowfalls occur when you can almost feel the rain knocking on the door.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1738
587. Zachary Labe
3:21 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
Mason803- Surprisingly THV only went down to 10F. Things for us in the LSV have been poor recently, and even this next storm threat I fear will cause precipitation type issues as it comes a bit inland, but way too early to speculate or worry. I highly doubt it is suppressed, though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
586. Mason803
3:12 PM GMT on January 31, 2010
that snowfall depth map sums up how things have gone for the lsv the past few years. i just went over the daily sterling coop report. there were some pretty cold readings around the area with frederick md at -2f and smithsburg at -1f. those areas really arent that far from us in the lsv. i guess the snowpack helped them out
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

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