Historic winter storm???

By: Zachary Labe , 4:49 PM GMT on December 13, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 12/13)
Good afternoon!!! Every year the question comes to mind of spending the holidays in a warmer climate. While many traverse southward into places such as Florida for the Christmas season even venturing into the holiday celebrations at places such as Disney World; I can just not see myself spending Christmas next to a palm tree. Part of the enjoyment of the season is running into local malls/shops to avoid the cold brisk winds of winter. Or perhaps it is the idea of everyone asking me whether we will have a white Christmas or not, despite it being only November 3rd. Then looking at media and the movies it does not help the warmer climate appeal, as they are always advertising snow throughout the entire movie. For instance take the "National Lampoons Christmas Vacation" movie (which is my favorite Christmas movie). The film takes place in Chicago, Illinois, yet through the entire 25 days to Christmas there remains a heavy snow pack on the ground; believable, not quite. Still the idea of a consistent snow cover and actual snow falling on Christmas makes the holiday season perfect according to some. Usually when the flocks of people begin asking me for a Christmas forecast, I give them the same old, "There is a 21% climatological chance of a white Christmas." Then they get mad and walk away. The clichéd Christmas of snow falling around a cabin in the woods on Christmas, even has appealed to me as the ideal holiday season. There is just that interesting retrospect surrounding snow falling December despite the fact Harrisburg only measures 4.5in on average in the month and so far we have already seen 40in. Maybe one of these years I will be able to spend Christmas with family out in Deep Creek, Maryland out of one of the vacation homes. So looking at the forecast for this Christmas, while I could say the climatological odds of a white Christmas; I will say this.... Looking at the overall synoptical pattern I think chances of a white Christmas are nearly 30% higher than the past seven years. That does not mean it will snow on Christmas, but odds are higher for snow to already be on the ground. As I will talk about later in my blog, there look to be two chances of significant storms this month, one around the 20-22 and a second in the 27-29 time frames. Happy Holidays!!!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 12/13)
After a low pressure moves across the region Sunday, it appears ridging aloft will and high pressure well off the coast will allow for a strong southwest flow favoring well above normal temperatures. MOS suggests highs in the mid 40s, but I am taking it a tad warmer into the low 50s for extreme southern Pennsylvania, but much of Maryland and Delaware. H85s will rise to near +8C, and partly cloudy skies will dominate over the region ahead of the Arctic cold front. With the heavy rain from Sunday, much of the snow pack of Pennsylvania except for the northern sides of mountains will be diminished. This will allow for the sun to cause temperatures to rise greatly on Monday. Towards Monday night approaching cirrus clouds and southwest light winds will inhibit radiational cooling giving way to a mild night. Tuesday a cold front will approach the region with steep lapse rates under the sharp temperature gradient. Highs ahead of the front will be reached during the first half of the day as H85s approach +10C. NAM temperature profiles seem a bit more accurate than the GFS/GEFS combo. With steep lapse rates a few heavy rain shower bands could develop along the front. The event remains sort of similar to a windex event, but temperatures remain to warm for snow squalls in most areas. Model QPF generally is less than .1inch for most areas using SREF QPF profiles. As the front moves through, 2m temperatures will fall throughout the day along with H85 heights. The flow will shift from the southwest to the west and eventually the northwest by Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow machine will turn on by Wednesday as H85s drop to near -10C and 1000-500mb thicknesses drop to below 525dm. Omega values will be unfavorable towards a significant lake effect snow outbreak considering PWATs near .25in and very dry air aloft. But with decent dendritic growth some areas may pick up some moderate accumulations towards northwestern Pennsylvania. By Thursday the core of the cold air will be over the region as the polar vortex retrogrades directly north of the eastern United States into Canada. By Thursday dewpoints will fall into the signal digits with a 1028mb high pressure and upstream ridging over the Middle Atlantic. This will allow for decoupling winds towards Thursday night for one of the coldest nights of the season. The -2SD trough will remain over the region Friday with H85s below -10C as a S/W approaches from the Midwest as a weak Alberta clipper. Typical with moisture starved clippers, QPF looks light. But cold surface temperatures with a favorable track south into central Maryland will put the jet streak over northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania generating a potential light synoptic snowfall favoring upslope regions near South Mountain and into the Laurel Highlands including the Potomac Highlands. Accumulations may be near 2-4in over the upslope and orographically benefited regions with 1-3in elsewhere and less east of the Susquehanna River. Behind the clipper, 1000-500mb thicknesses fall to near 515-520dm allowing for even colder air. Questions then begin to arise about storm chances also. Stay tuned! In conclusion after the frontal passage on Tuesday temperatures look to be below normal most of the week and generally dry except for the lake effect snow belts with flurries elsewhere.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"7-Day Zonal Forecast Outlooks"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware)(Updated 12/13)
Monday- High pressure over the Tennessee Valley will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies over much of the northern Middle Atlantic as a low pressure pulls off to the northeast. Some residual moisture from Sunday night and partial clearing may allow for some fog formation towards Monday morning. Fog may become dense with visibilities below .25mi across some regions especially across the valley locations below 800ft. But diurnal heating of the day will allow the fog to dissipate by 10am with partly cloudy skies over the region. Weak ridging aloft and a southwest flow will allow for warmer than normal temperatures especially with low snowpack over the entire region. Highs may approach values 10F above normal with highs over Maryland and Delaware approaching the lower 50s, highs in southern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia around 50F, and highs in northern Pennsylvania in the mid to upper 40s. Increasing clouds later in the day will be from a cold front approaching from the west. Dewpoints will also be on the rise up through the 20s and 30s. Monday night will feature mostly cloudy skies over the region ahead of the cold front with generally dry conditions and no precipitation. Lows will range from the low 30s to mid 30s across the entire northern Middle Atlantic including Washington DC.

Tuesday- A cold front will approach the region with weak dynamics and dry air aloft. But a sharp temperature contrast along the front may allow for some rain bands especially over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than .25in for all areas with amounts below .1in east of the mountains. As the front moves eastward, temperatures will begin to tumble especially towards Tuesday evening as arctic air overspreads the region. Winds will become breezy as they shift out of the northwest. High temperatures will be into the mid to upper 50s south of the Mason-Dixon line and around 50F for areas north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland line. By Tuesday evening the front should be progressing off the coast as the flow shifts to the northwest allowing for a few lake effect snow showers to begin forming. Initially winds will be out of the due west for most of the night allowing the streamers to generally be north of the Pennsylvania snowbelts, but they will drop southward overnight. Snow accumulation Tuesday night will generally be a Coating-1in for the snowbelts across Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Lows will range from the low 30s for areas east of the Blue Ridge to lows in the mid 20s across the Appalachians.

Wednesday- A northwest flow regime will dominate the weather across the entire northern Middle Atlantic with strato-cumulus over the mountains and downsloping winds across I-95. A favorable northwest lake effect snow regime will allow several streamers to form particularly across the northwestern portions of Pennsylvania towards the northern Laurel Highlands. With breezy conditions and cold temperatures aloft, a few streamers may make it east of the mountains towards the ridge and valley region, but no accumulation is likely. Across the lake effect snow belts a general 2-4in is possible during the day. Highs will be several degrees below normal over the entire region with 30s for highs south of I-80 and 20s to the north. Towards Wednesday evening the flow turns a bit more northerly allowing even portions of northeastern Pennsylvania to see some lake effect snow streamers with accumulation around 1-4in possible particularly across the higher elevations of Wayne and Susquehanna Counties. Lows will generally be in the 20s for all locations with areas towards Bradford dropping down into the teens.

Thursday- Marginal ridging aloft moves over the northern Middle Atlantic with drier air allowing for much of the accumulating lake effect snow streamers to shut off with only residual snow showers and flurries over the region. Additional accumulations in the snow belts will only be around a coating to one inch or so. Partly cloudy skies east of the mountains and most cloudy skies across the Alleghenies will allow for highs to be several degrees below normal with a deep trough over the region. Highs will range from the mid 30s near Washington DC to the low 30s across southern Pennsylvania to the mid to upper 20s over the higher elevations and much of northern Pennsylvania. Thursday night will feature clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing for radiational cooling. With low dewpoints, temperatures should be able to fall into the single digits for northern Pennsylvania across Potter and McKean Counties with teens elsewhere and low to mid 20s towards Philadelphia and areas south of the Mason-Dixon line.

Friday- After a cold morning and heavy frost, sunshine will prevail until a cirrus deck approaches from the west ahead of a weak Alberta clipper towards Friday night. With the deep trough remaining situated over the east coast, temperatures will remain below normal generally in the upper 20s through the 30s for highs over the entire northern Middle Atlantic. By Friday night light snow will move into western Pennsylvania enhanced by orographic lift over the Laurel Highlands. Light snow will progress eastward throughout the night with generally light snow accumulations likely.

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 12/13)
December is an exciting time for many of the local ski resorts across the northern Middle Atlantic as they can finally start opening their doors after months and months of summer temperatures. Local ski resorts in the Harrisburg area have opened including Whitetail, Ski Liberty, and Ski Roundtop with machine grained snow packs with depths generally around 10-12in. Some of the snowpack is fresh snow from this past Wednesday and the past Saturday in the beginning of the month. After Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, upstream blocking and a Canadian Polar Vortex should allow for an extended period of cold temperatures heading into the height of the holiday season. Temperatures will remain cold enough for constant snow making across the entire region and this should allow all ski areas to open up by the end of the month. Out towards western Maryland in the Deep Creek resort area, they are off to a great start this season with 27in of snow already being reported this season in McHenry, MD. Up in the Poconos Camelback and Blue Mountain are already off to a great start the season with partial fresh snow pack and residual cold temperatures. Heavy rain on Sunday will allow for very slow and slushy conditions as temperatures rise above freezing, and by early Tuesday temperatures will rise to near 50F in many areas melting some of the snow pack. But towards Wednesday through the end of the week, below normal temperatures will move back into the region for an extended period of time. As for snow chances, back into the Laurel Highlands and western Maryland a great upslope event looks to be in store from Wednesday through Friday as the flow remains out of the northwest. Several inches to a moderate snowfall is possible in this time frame across the lake effect snow belts. Towards Friday and Saturday a marginal Alberta Clipper moves towards the region and may spread a general 1-3in over the region with 2-4in across the Laurel Highlands. This is the next best chance of widespread synoptic snow over the northern Middle Atlantic. Towards the week of Christmas there remain several opportunities for significant winter storms, but there also is the high possibility these systems are pushes offshore. As for river ice reports, ice has begun to form on local waterways such as creeks and streams especially over the north-central Mountains of Pennsylvania. Also local ponds and small lakes are beginning to see some ice formation. But across Lake Erie and the local main stem rivers, ice is slow to form as it is only December. But with colder temperatures in our future ice formation will definitely begin to form by the end of the month.

-Link to official reports page from NWS...Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions...Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 12/13)
A cold front will pass through the region resembling an Arctic front on Tuesday as temperatures will begin to tumble with increasing northwest winds. Lake effect snow will begin Tuesday afternoon and last through Thursday evening as ridging and high pressure over the Great Lakes and a low pressure near Newfoundland allows for a tight pressure gradient out of the northwest for a majority of the week ahead. Directly after the frontal passage Tuesday winds will shift to the 280degree flow allowing for most of the lake effect streamers to remain north of the region, but as the low pressure pulls to the northeast the flow will shift near 300degrees favoring lake effect snow over much of western and northern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. With relatively dry air aloft in this time frame, it does appear the lake effect will be overly significant across the northern Middle Atlantic especially considering Omega values only around (+4)-(-4) most of the week. Dendritic growth will though be excellent as H85s drop -2SD below normal with temperatures near -10C and below. Towards Wednesday winds shift even more northerly to around 325degrees. With model QPF generally be .1in for each frame, only moderate accumulations are likely in this time frame. The most favorable locations for accumulations would be across the northwest mountains in Pennsylvania where locations towards eastern Erie/Crawford Counties and all of Potter, Warren, and McKean Counties may see total accumulations around 3-6in. Towards the Laurel Highlands and western Maryland the flow initially is favorable for 2-4in before streamers become less organized as the flow turns more northerly. Some of the favorable upslope locations in Somerset County may see a quick 3-6in snowfall. Across much of the northern Middle Atlantic the favorable flow will allow for a few snow showers to make it east of the mountains affecting the Ridge and Valley region and into the Poconos where a quick C-.5in of snow is possible. Over the northeastern mountains towards Susquehanna, Bradford, and Wayne Counties the northerly flow will be favorable for the development of a few streamers into the region potentially allowing for 2-4in of snow over the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Generally dry air will be the inhibiting factor for heavy lake effect snows across northwestern Pennsylvania especially considering the amount of cold air towards Thursday with H85s near -17C. Weak ridging aloft moves over the region towards Thursday night as a weak Alberta Clipper approaches the region and tracks across central West Virginia and central Maryland out of the Delmarva. After the passage of the light synoptic snow, ongoing lake effect will intensify towards Saturday evening under another northwest flow giving light accumulations to the snow belts. Depending on the lake effect forecast in the coming days, a snow map may be necessary to be issued Tuesday. Stay tuned with those with concerns in the lake effect snow regions!!!

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/13)
The long term pattern is favoring colder than normal temperatures and potentially stormy conditions. As I mentioned yesterday the east-based negative NAO will be retrograding towards a more favorable west-based negative NAO with above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic including Greenland. With rex blocking forming towards the Hudson Bay in northern Canada, the 500mb jet pattern looks favorable going towards the week of Christmas. During my special Middle Atlantic Winter blog last winter I mentioned quite about the favorable trend for a negative to positive trending NAO causing large storms systems over the east coast. This trend may slightly be available around the 20-22 of the month. Another interesting teleconnection is the current negative AO anomaly which is nosing towards -3. This makes it one of the lowest AO anomalies in many years and I have seen statistics proving a negative AO this low in December would allow for a colder than normal winters as patterns similar to this are very difficult to budge under a winter-time regime. With favorable upstream blocking conditions and deep troughing over the east coast under a trough axis over the east coast, I think it is suffice to say the potential for a KU storm over the region is significantly higher than normal. Originally it appeared this current weak would behold the time frame of a significant storm, but guidance suggests that the pattern finally is favorable towards next week. Interesting to note, but December typically has the least amount of coastal storms during the month with significant storms sometimes difficult to come by. In fact here in Harrisburg, the largest snowstorm this month was only 13.9in back in 1960. But anything is possible especially in this February-like coastal pattern. If we can get a S/W in the southwest to buckle the jet and allow for gulf moisture to stream up the coast, this all becomes possible. The scenario would seem to be an Alberta clipper dropping out of the Midwest allowing for a miller B low to form near southern North Carolina south of Hatteras. The chances of a winter storm in this period while are high, I think the odds of a bombogenesis low are higher for an offshore low considering the anomaly of the upstream blocking. Still though today's 12/13/09 guidance was particularly interesting with the 0z GGEM and 0z ECMWF favoring a significant coastal storm just off the coast causing rain around I-95, but heavy snow just inland from there. The 0z GFS is also close to a phase and considering the 500mb chart, I think the surface features are probably too far east, therefore the actual low would probably be near benchmark. But the parallel 0z GFS shows the opportunity for a significant snowstorm for all areas in this time frame. Also wavelengths favor another significant storm between Christmas and New Years. I am doing some research for statistics for back to back coastal storms in this time frame, but so far I have not found much. Anyways let me word it this way, go about in caution but keep in mind there is great opportunity in those time frames that hopefully is not wasted. Stay tuned in the coming week!!!

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Note I am only posting this towercam until snow starts falling over the northern Middle Atlantic, lol. For now we can all be jealous of the Alaskan snow.

"Monthly Outlook" (December)
November temperature forecast was a disaster. There were conflicting evidence for the temperature trend for November and I chose below normal to stay in line with the pattern of many below normal temperature months in a row, nearly 6 or 7. A generally zonal ridge under a Pacific jet occurred across the lower 48 during much of the month after a few below normal days in the beginning of the month across the Northeast. The MJO was the driving force behind the pattern along with the unfavorable Alaskan Vortex causing well below normal temperatures across Alaska. Alaskan vortices and Gulf of Alaskan Lows are the kiss of death for cold, but especially snow chances over the east coast. Also the Polar Vortex mentioned often in November was affecting the other side of the globe across Asia allowing for record snowfall cover in Siberia and record snows as far south as Beijing, China. Generally a large depreciative anomaly in snowfall occurred across the United States with major snowfall generally subject to mountainous areas. Temperatures were generally above normal for most areas across the northern portions of the United States. Closer to home in the Middle Atlantic anomalies for the month look to be near +3.5-4.0F for most areas, which is pretty impressive. As for precipitation, generally most areas received normal to below normal precipitation which actually went according to my forecast especially with my forecast of the storm track becoming more active towards the end of the month. And looking back through at our statistics most of the rain occurred toward the end of the month with nor'easters. The temperature forecast was a disaster though as my call for below normal temperatures was severely wrong for the reasons above. Anyways let’s leave on a positive note and look what is ahead for another difficult forecast, December... December forecast looks tricky and I am taking a slightly different route than many for my forecast. It appears the MJO forcing will weaken despite entering phases 6+7; this will have less of a driving force as it did in November. On the other side though phases 6/7/8 are very favorable towards east coast troughing. Anyways it also appears the Polar Vortex over the eastern hemisphere will retrograde west but over western Canada allowing for the Pacific jet to buckle perhaps leading to very cold weather over the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies for the first half of the month. Despite this Nina-like pattern, all hope is not lost as typically this would cause a strong southeast ridge to form. It appears the east-based negative NAO may become more favorable overtime turning more west-based, which would aid in a generally weak trough flow over much of the Midwest and east coast for the first half of the month. Also there are a few signs that the Omega block will slide east from Alaska to central Canada again favoring a weakening of a southeast ridge. And with the emission of several S/W out of the southwest, there is the possibility for the STJ to cause for some stormy times in the northern Middle Atlantic. A weak trough is better than a real amplified jet for snow chances. In any case I do not think this will be an overly snowy month as blocking will be limited to the north causing inland storms. But towards the second half of the month there are many more conflicting signals as ensembles point to a retrograding of the PV to a more favorable location over the Hudson Bay which would favor very cold air over the eastern United States, but some guidance suggests a breakdown in the negative EPO. I think I will take a middle ground with my transient pattern approach.

Temperature- I am forecasting near normal temperatures for December with general anomalies over the region around (-0.5)-(+0.5) with the colder anomalies across Pennsylvania as Maryland and Delaware may see a bit more impact from any southeast ridge that forms. It looks like the second week of the month will be pretty chilly along with the third week before the pattern begins to breakdown for a time being causing warmer temperatures before winter lashes in during the beginning of January. Overall December should have a bit of fun with storm chances and will not be a blowtorch as this past November.

Precipitation- Generally I expect above normal precipitation especially with a possible active storm track from the southwest along the peripheral of the base of the weak trough over the east coast. This favors overrunning precipitation events and possible east coast storms if the subtropical jet becomes active. This December could be very similar to last year's December with above normal precipitation and overrunning storms. As for snowfall I expect near normal snowfall, although I would not be surprised if some areas end up above normal especially over northwestern Pennsylvania. As for the first snow chance I like the December 5th-8th window for the first widespread snow. Just check out the parallel 11/30/09 12z GFS.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- Trace
Monthly Total- 4.0in
Seasonal Total- 4.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 30.6F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain

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I'm sorry. An entire forum placed on Suicide Watch?

Yeahhhh I gotta get involved. What's the link?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting Finky:
Thanks! I know him as Henry.....Sorry i didnt know his last name...I am trying to learn this stuff!


No prob man
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting weathergeek5:
uh oh the &@#%^%& is hitting the fan over there. a Depression watch has been posted on the other site

Uh oh, the watch looks best situated for those with concerns along the I-95 corridor south of Boston, hahaha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
uh oh the &@#%^%& is hitting the fan over there. A Depression Watch has been posted on the other site. Gotta make some popcorn...
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Thanks! I know him as Henry.....Sorry i didnt know his last name...I am trying to learn this stuff!
Member Since: November 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
HM = Henry Margusity. He's the luckiest man on the planet.

"Why?" You ask? Well because Henry Margusity doesn't know the first darn thing about weather, hasn't been right on a winter storm in over 3 years and YET he somehow still has a job at Accuweather.

It's literally the meteorological equivalent to a lifetime .150 hitter with no arm whatsoever playing right field and hitting cleanup for the Yankees.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Finky- The guy we all reference over there on Accuweather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Henry Margusity of accuweather
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Blizz,

Who or what is HM?
Member Since: November 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
Well HM is giving up on the storm. Models were not built to forecast several polar vortices of energy, so there is no definite need to throw out all solutions, especially considering the ECMWF showing a storm closer to the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i don't ever want to hear the word "ice" again. for as long as i live. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Looking at long term temperature profiles, it is likely ice begins to build on waterways after the holidays.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yeah. sure they are. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
easternwx forum. they are having "software issues"
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
WHAT?!@?!?!?!?!?! Where? Where?!?!

(keep in mind, I got shut down here a few weeks ago. got 24'd for an "inappropriate blog" so it's entirely possible that it's a wunderblog)
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
nope not that one.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
One forum got shut down?

Please tell me it's not Accucrapper. That would break my <3
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I agree Blizzard, the conservative approach works well in our side of the block, but the NWS still has to mention it in their 7 day outlooks, otherwise don't go more than 5 days out. I agree that given this highly volatile pattern we have, where the storm could literally change track of 1000 miles either east or west. We could anything happen from the 12z Dec 14 GGEM to the 12z Dec 14 EURO. Talk about a huge difference. The GFS was actually the furthest east outlier, and still is with the parallel. A lot will change between now and Saturday, and I won't have any confidence in one solution until Thursday night when I come home to Cape Cod, MA and am looking on my computer for that time frame. Plus I think confidence is growing in some type of Gulf of Mexico storm for Thursday. The one billion dollar question becomes, will the first Gulf low phase with the northern stream, or will the northern stream trough create its own disturbance off the Carolina coastline?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hahaha, -27 would be incredible. What a great story it would be though. And great ice skating. You could probably skate the Conodoguinet from Carlisle upstream as far as you wanted. Or just skate it all the way to Harrisburg. I would definitely go out and buy a thermometer just so I could take a picture of it at -27.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Ok I saw which one shut down. Again I am taking the middle road concerning the weather coming up this weekend. WOW that is cold!!!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
On a really "cool" side note, literally...

12z GFS hr 372...

This perhaps is one of the coldest H85 airmasses I have seen progged in the northeast in years. It will NOT happen, but it is sure fun to imagine. Meteograms initiate a H85 temperature of -27C!!! in Harrisburg with 1000-500mb thicknesses of 496dm with a 2m temperature of -3.

As for the shorter term, my afternoon synopsis after my model analysis... I think there is a higher threat of this storm coming more towards coast, than being surpressed out to sea. But I choose words carefully because IF I said there is a 60% chance of this coming up the coast, then there is still a 40% chance of this going out to sea, hahaha; good old stats.
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*runs off to see which forum shut down*
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
I see the entire "weather blogosphere" is a mess. One forum shut down, then you have another with people asking questions of amounts for their home with no one answering along with people posting the wrong model cycles, and then we have the cool and collective blog (wonder which one that is, hahahaha). On a serious note there is quite a bit of blocking in place so if we can tap this a bit farther west on the 12z ECMWF, we have a larger storm. We are looking for the PV position and how elongated it will become. Verbatum the 12z ECWMF would be a general 3-6in for many in the northern Middle Atlantic three state region, which I am sure we would all accept. I think the GFS is suffering some problems in this synoptic setup with a southeast bias, but that does not mean I buy the ECMWF. Again I take a low approach in this situation as there is too much uncertainty. If I worked for the NWS though, I would paint a general 30% chance of light snow in the time frame to account for the threat across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware.
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I am not mentioning anything at all to people I know concerning this system. If it looks as though we may get some precip I will mention it.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
I have a feeling something good is going to happen Sunday or Monday. Of course having said so, I probably jinks it!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Good afternoon all!!! ECMWF isn't that bad for some areas...


(Note use the QPF conversion from MM to IN)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Margusity wants it to snow SO bad. Hahahahaha!
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Looks like a consensus as of today is that one of 2 things occur

1) Fish Storm

2) Long Island Express.

Again, it's just Tuesday.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
also, 48F, last warm day for a while?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Yea, I Blizz, you just explained exactly why the accuweather crowd needs to be sipping your coolaid. Seriously, they live and die by each model and pick which ever one that fits their wishes best. It's funny, but as I learn, going there makes it much more difficult.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
You got it right, Palmyra.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Well even HM has decided to play it safe for now. Of course it's just Tuesday. The hype train may not even be scheduled to depart until Thursday.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
At the moment I am feeling unlucky, but hope my luck changes by the end of the week.

HPC discussion

SOUTH AND EAST...
A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE
EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. ONCE IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH A
SMALLER SOUTHERN CAMP COMPRISED OF ONE-THIRD OF THE MEMBERS MOVING
THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF BERMUDA WITH THE LOW WEAKENING MARKEDLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE AZORES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN CAMP MOVES THE
RESULTANT CYCLONE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA ON
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER KEEP THE
FORECAST SHROUDED IN UNCERTAINTY. IF A MORE WESTERN UPPER CENTER
FORMS IN THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO BUILDING POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN
CANADA...WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY...THAN THE LOW
MOVES DIRECTLY UP THE EAST COAST BRINGING HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES AND POSSIBLY BRINGS A
MILD/EASTERLY MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS INTO MAINE...WHICH WOULD
MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WHISKED WELL
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MUCH LOWER SNOW TOTALS
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS IDEA WOULD ALSO
KEEP NEW ENGLAND COLD UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF SPLITS THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE UNTIL THE MODELS AGREE ON THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
I will add this... considering the northwest trend with the coastal storm earlier this year, I would say odds of the latest ECMWF moving northwest are higher than normal. The GFS is currently the only real surpressed model in the 0z cycle.
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PV is polar vortex. The time period holds great opportunity as mentioned in the blog above, but I am taking every model run in caution considering the surpression potential. The 0z ECMWF shifted hundreds of miles west in this recent run to a very favorable snowstorm track, so you can see the wild shifts from run to run. If we can get the PV far enough north, this could get very interesting. There is a lot of vortices of energy spinning around the base of the trough in this time period, so confidence is low.
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Still learning.......but what is PV?

And your post seemed to be saying chances of snow are lowwwww. :( boo
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
I'm feeling lucky. But that lucky feeling never pans out. Damn that lucky feeling. Can I get a blizzard please
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
Quoting synthman19872003:
I do visit Accu on a daily basis, mainly to watch the vlogs from Abrams and Strait, just to see what they have to say about the weather.


Funny. I used to go to Accuweather mainly to watch the Vlogs from Kate Bilo. She was cute, smart, and had a fun sense of humor. She also did Jeopardy! recently. I miss her.

and No, I'm not feeling lucky. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I think what poses interesting for the weekend is the western ridging, but two major signs against an amplified coastal run appear obvious to me. First off is the low in the northern Great Lakes towards southern Canada. Research by Paul Kocin, proves many significant snowstorms along the east coast allow for anticyclones in the same region where in this instance there is a low pressure. The second sign is the anomalous negative AO allowing for the PV to move into upstate New York surpressing the system. Placement of the PV is questionable and models will continue to strugge. But from a pure meteorological surface and 500mb map analysis, there sure is a lot of evidence offering the supressed low situation. I have seen many situations in the past of this type of scenario, particurily the surpressed Easter low pressure off the coast, a few years ago, in which we all hung onto as a threat until finally we noticed the models were not going to shift back west. But on the other end of the straw, as you all know I take conservative approaches, we do have an anomalous pattern not seen for years which is actually very similar to 1977-1978. The trough will become negatively tilted and the western ridging looks fantastic, so it all comes down to the PV placement which in most instances surpresses storms unless we are lucky. Are you feeling lucky?
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Quoting Blizzard92:
PalmyraPunishment- Hahaha... My favorite are the scenario maps with the entire Northeast circled with a arrow pointing from the circle saying "chance of snow from coastal" hahaha.
Hahaha yeah, that site always hypes up the weather, especially for the Northeast. Though I do visit Accu on a daily basis, mainly to watch the vlogs from Abrams and Strait, just to see what they have to say about the weather. Those two seem to be more levelheaded about the weather; Margusity on the other hand... LOL I think he may be the king of hype! ;)
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I remember a week ago from today, the models showed a nice snowstorm for this past weekend. We all know how that one panned out.

Here we are again, same situation, same characters already hyping it up on the other sites. If these models continue to show something come Thursday night, then I will begin to get excited.

The snow pack here has disintegrated into nothing but small piles in parking lots from the plows. So it would definitely be nice to get a snow replenishment prior to the holiday.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
PalmyraPunishment- Hahaha... My favorite are the scenario maps with the entire Northeast circled with a arrow pointing from the circle saying "chance of snow from coastal" hahaha.
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Well, "the other site" has already posted their dooming pretense of a storm this coming weekend. Let's see how long it takes for the backpedaling to begin.

This is also where RP comes in "C'mon, Man... why you look at that stuff, Blizz is all you need?" hahaha

BWI - I'll assume it's Blogging While Intoxicated. Which I thoroughly endorse. Just not during a busy time -- it gets annoying when it's counterproductive to a good storm report hahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Mason803- This is a link to the parallel GFS for now, I would imagine they move it the original NCEP page... Link.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Well that was the last 18z GFS ever... tomorrow the model is being replaced with what current is the parallel GFS. I have been watching the last week or two and while maybe a hair improved, it does not look like by much.


are there new links to access the new gfs?
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Well that was the last 18z GFS ever... tomorrow the model is being replaced with what current is the parallel GFS. I have been watching the last week or two and while maybe a hair improved, it does not look like by much.
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bwi- Thanks! I saw the HPC forecast and was actually a bit surprised on a slightly "gutsy" forecast at this point. NWS will always play more conservative as their forecasts go directly to the public.
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31. bwi
bwi has many potential meanings:

british west indies
baltimore-washington international
blogging while intoxicated

or all of the above.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Hey, the airport has joined Wunderground! ghahahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
29. bwi
Since it's quiet, I did want to say how much I appreciate this blog. One question -- it looks to me like the latest HPC 7 day has settled a pretty decent looking system off the coast for Sunday and Monday. But LWX has no mention of even clouds in our local forecast. It is just projected to be too far offshore, or is LWX just keeping the Day 6 and Day 7 silent until the picture gets more clear in your opinion?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Boy quiet day here today despite some of the global models highlighting threats in the medium range. GFS and ECMWF will continue to see waffling ideas along with other guidance as for the position of the polar vortex. The NOGAPS and GGEM have been surprisingly consistent along with the putrid JMA. For now ideas will waffle so no need to jump of a bridge or throw a party for a few days at least. I really am at odds with this system from a non-model approach. For once I really am not standing on either side of a forecast, at least for today anyway.
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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