Historic winter storm???

By: Zachary Labe , 4:49 PM GMT on December 13, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 12/13)
Good afternoon!!! Every year the question comes to mind of spending the holidays in a warmer climate. While many traverse southward into places such as Florida for the Christmas season even venturing into the holiday celebrations at places such as Disney World; I can just not see myself spending Christmas next to a palm tree. Part of the enjoyment of the season is running into local malls/shops to avoid the cold brisk winds of winter. Or perhaps it is the idea of everyone asking me whether we will have a white Christmas or not, despite it being only November 3rd. Then looking at media and the movies it does not help the warmer climate appeal, as they are always advertising snow throughout the entire movie. For instance take the "National Lampoons Christmas Vacation" movie (which is my favorite Christmas movie). The film takes place in Chicago, Illinois, yet through the entire 25 days to Christmas there remains a heavy snow pack on the ground; believable, not quite. Still the idea of a consistent snow cover and actual snow falling on Christmas makes the holiday season perfect according to some. Usually when the flocks of people begin asking me for a Christmas forecast, I give them the same old, "There is a 21% climatological chance of a white Christmas." Then they get mad and walk away. The clichéd Christmas of snow falling around a cabin in the woods on Christmas, even has appealed to me as the ideal holiday season. There is just that interesting retrospect surrounding snow falling December despite the fact Harrisburg only measures 4.5in on average in the month and so far we have already seen 40in. Maybe one of these years I will be able to spend Christmas with family out in Deep Creek, Maryland out of one of the vacation homes. So looking at the forecast for this Christmas, while I could say the climatological odds of a white Christmas; I will say this.... Looking at the overall synoptical pattern I think chances of a white Christmas are nearly 30% higher than the past seven years. That does not mean it will snow on Christmas, but odds are higher for snow to already be on the ground. As I will talk about later in my blog, there look to be two chances of significant storms this month, one around the 20-22 and a second in the 27-29 time frames. Happy Holidays!!!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 12/13)
After a low pressure moves across the region Sunday, it appears ridging aloft will and high pressure well off the coast will allow for a strong southwest flow favoring well above normal temperatures. MOS suggests highs in the mid 40s, but I am taking it a tad warmer into the low 50s for extreme southern Pennsylvania, but much of Maryland and Delaware. H85s will rise to near +8C, and partly cloudy skies will dominate over the region ahead of the Arctic cold front. With the heavy rain from Sunday, much of the snow pack of Pennsylvania except for the northern sides of mountains will be diminished. This will allow for the sun to cause temperatures to rise greatly on Monday. Towards Monday night approaching cirrus clouds and southwest light winds will inhibit radiational cooling giving way to a mild night. Tuesday a cold front will approach the region with steep lapse rates under the sharp temperature gradient. Highs ahead of the front will be reached during the first half of the day as H85s approach +10C. NAM temperature profiles seem a bit more accurate than the GFS/GEFS combo. With steep lapse rates a few heavy rain shower bands could develop along the front. The event remains sort of similar to a windex event, but temperatures remain to warm for snow squalls in most areas. Model QPF generally is less than .1inch for most areas using SREF QPF profiles. As the front moves through, 2m temperatures will fall throughout the day along with H85 heights. The flow will shift from the southwest to the west and eventually the northwest by Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow machine will turn on by Wednesday as H85s drop to near -10C and 1000-500mb thicknesses drop to below 525dm. Omega values will be unfavorable towards a significant lake effect snow outbreak considering PWATs near .25in and very dry air aloft. But with decent dendritic growth some areas may pick up some moderate accumulations towards northwestern Pennsylvania. By Thursday the core of the cold air will be over the region as the polar vortex retrogrades directly north of the eastern United States into Canada. By Thursday dewpoints will fall into the signal digits with a 1028mb high pressure and upstream ridging over the Middle Atlantic. This will allow for decoupling winds towards Thursday night for one of the coldest nights of the season. The -2SD trough will remain over the region Friday with H85s below -10C as a S/W approaches from the Midwest as a weak Alberta clipper. Typical with moisture starved clippers, QPF looks light. But cold surface temperatures with a favorable track south into central Maryland will put the jet streak over northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania generating a potential light synoptic snowfall favoring upslope regions near South Mountain and into the Laurel Highlands including the Potomac Highlands. Accumulations may be near 2-4in over the upslope and orographically benefited regions with 1-3in elsewhere and less east of the Susquehanna River. Behind the clipper, 1000-500mb thicknesses fall to near 515-520dm allowing for even colder air. Questions then begin to arise about storm chances also. Stay tuned! In conclusion after the frontal passage on Tuesday temperatures look to be below normal most of the week and generally dry except for the lake effect snow belts with flurries elsewhere.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"7-Day Zonal Forecast Outlooks"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware)(Updated 12/13)
Monday- High pressure over the Tennessee Valley will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies over much of the northern Middle Atlantic as a low pressure pulls off to the northeast. Some residual moisture from Sunday night and partial clearing may allow for some fog formation towards Monday morning. Fog may become dense with visibilities below .25mi across some regions especially across the valley locations below 800ft. But diurnal heating of the day will allow the fog to dissipate by 10am with partly cloudy skies over the region. Weak ridging aloft and a southwest flow will allow for warmer than normal temperatures especially with low snowpack over the entire region. Highs may approach values 10F above normal with highs over Maryland and Delaware approaching the lower 50s, highs in southern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia around 50F, and highs in northern Pennsylvania in the mid to upper 40s. Increasing clouds later in the day will be from a cold front approaching from the west. Dewpoints will also be on the rise up through the 20s and 30s. Monday night will feature mostly cloudy skies over the region ahead of the cold front with generally dry conditions and no precipitation. Lows will range from the low 30s to mid 30s across the entire northern Middle Atlantic including Washington DC.

Tuesday- A cold front will approach the region with weak dynamics and dry air aloft. But a sharp temperature contrast along the front may allow for some rain bands especially over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than .25in for all areas with amounts below .1in east of the mountains. As the front moves eastward, temperatures will begin to tumble especially towards Tuesday evening as arctic air overspreads the region. Winds will become breezy as they shift out of the northwest. High temperatures will be into the mid to upper 50s south of the Mason-Dixon line and around 50F for areas north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland line. By Tuesday evening the front should be progressing off the coast as the flow shifts to the northwest allowing for a few lake effect snow showers to begin forming. Initially winds will be out of the due west for most of the night allowing the streamers to generally be north of the Pennsylvania snowbelts, but they will drop southward overnight. Snow accumulation Tuesday night will generally be a Coating-1in for the snowbelts across Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Lows will range from the low 30s for areas east of the Blue Ridge to lows in the mid 20s across the Appalachians.

Wednesday- A northwest flow regime will dominate the weather across the entire northern Middle Atlantic with strato-cumulus over the mountains and downsloping winds across I-95. A favorable northwest lake effect snow regime will allow several streamers to form particularly across the northwestern portions of Pennsylvania towards the northern Laurel Highlands. With breezy conditions and cold temperatures aloft, a few streamers may make it east of the mountains towards the ridge and valley region, but no accumulation is likely. Across the lake effect snow belts a general 2-4in is possible during the day. Highs will be several degrees below normal over the entire region with 30s for highs south of I-80 and 20s to the north. Towards Wednesday evening the flow turns a bit more northerly allowing even portions of northeastern Pennsylvania to see some lake effect snow streamers with accumulation around 1-4in possible particularly across the higher elevations of Wayne and Susquehanna Counties. Lows will generally be in the 20s for all locations with areas towards Bradford dropping down into the teens.

Thursday- Marginal ridging aloft moves over the northern Middle Atlantic with drier air allowing for much of the accumulating lake effect snow streamers to shut off with only residual snow showers and flurries over the region. Additional accumulations in the snow belts will only be around a coating to one inch or so. Partly cloudy skies east of the mountains and most cloudy skies across the Alleghenies will allow for highs to be several degrees below normal with a deep trough over the region. Highs will range from the mid 30s near Washington DC to the low 30s across southern Pennsylvania to the mid to upper 20s over the higher elevations and much of northern Pennsylvania. Thursday night will feature clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing for radiational cooling. With low dewpoints, temperatures should be able to fall into the single digits for northern Pennsylvania across Potter and McKean Counties with teens elsewhere and low to mid 20s towards Philadelphia and areas south of the Mason-Dixon line.

Friday- After a cold morning and heavy frost, sunshine will prevail until a cirrus deck approaches from the west ahead of a weak Alberta clipper towards Friday night. With the deep trough remaining situated over the east coast, temperatures will remain below normal generally in the upper 20s through the 30s for highs over the entire northern Middle Atlantic. By Friday night light snow will move into western Pennsylvania enhanced by orographic lift over the Laurel Highlands. Light snow will progress eastward throughout the night with generally light snow accumulations likely.

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 12/13)
December is an exciting time for many of the local ski resorts across the northern Middle Atlantic as they can finally start opening their doors after months and months of summer temperatures. Local ski resorts in the Harrisburg area have opened including Whitetail, Ski Liberty, and Ski Roundtop with machine grained snow packs with depths generally around 10-12in. Some of the snowpack is fresh snow from this past Wednesday and the past Saturday in the beginning of the month. After Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, upstream blocking and a Canadian Polar Vortex should allow for an extended period of cold temperatures heading into the height of the holiday season. Temperatures will remain cold enough for constant snow making across the entire region and this should allow all ski areas to open up by the end of the month. Out towards western Maryland in the Deep Creek resort area, they are off to a great start this season with 27in of snow already being reported this season in McHenry, MD. Up in the Poconos Camelback and Blue Mountain are already off to a great start the season with partial fresh snow pack and residual cold temperatures. Heavy rain on Sunday will allow for very slow and slushy conditions as temperatures rise above freezing, and by early Tuesday temperatures will rise to near 50F in many areas melting some of the snow pack. But towards Wednesday through the end of the week, below normal temperatures will move back into the region for an extended period of time. As for snow chances, back into the Laurel Highlands and western Maryland a great upslope event looks to be in store from Wednesday through Friday as the flow remains out of the northwest. Several inches to a moderate snowfall is possible in this time frame across the lake effect snow belts. Towards Friday and Saturday a marginal Alberta Clipper moves towards the region and may spread a general 1-3in over the region with 2-4in across the Laurel Highlands. This is the next best chance of widespread synoptic snow over the northern Middle Atlantic. Towards the week of Christmas there remain several opportunities for significant winter storms, but there also is the high possibility these systems are pushes offshore. As for river ice reports, ice has begun to form on local waterways such as creeks and streams especially over the north-central Mountains of Pennsylvania. Also local ponds and small lakes are beginning to see some ice formation. But across Lake Erie and the local main stem rivers, ice is slow to form as it is only December. But with colder temperatures in our future ice formation will definitely begin to form by the end of the month.

-Link to official reports page from NWS...Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions...Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 12/13)
A cold front will pass through the region resembling an Arctic front on Tuesday as temperatures will begin to tumble with increasing northwest winds. Lake effect snow will begin Tuesday afternoon and last through Thursday evening as ridging and high pressure over the Great Lakes and a low pressure near Newfoundland allows for a tight pressure gradient out of the northwest for a majority of the week ahead. Directly after the frontal passage Tuesday winds will shift to the 280degree flow allowing for most of the lake effect streamers to remain north of the region, but as the low pressure pulls to the northeast the flow will shift near 300degrees favoring lake effect snow over much of western and northern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. With relatively dry air aloft in this time frame, it does appear the lake effect will be overly significant across the northern Middle Atlantic especially considering Omega values only around (+4)-(-4) most of the week. Dendritic growth will though be excellent as H85s drop -2SD below normal with temperatures near -10C and below. Towards Wednesday winds shift even more northerly to around 325degrees. With model QPF generally be .1in for each frame, only moderate accumulations are likely in this time frame. The most favorable locations for accumulations would be across the northwest mountains in Pennsylvania where locations towards eastern Erie/Crawford Counties and all of Potter, Warren, and McKean Counties may see total accumulations around 3-6in. Towards the Laurel Highlands and western Maryland the flow initially is favorable for 2-4in before streamers become less organized as the flow turns more northerly. Some of the favorable upslope locations in Somerset County may see a quick 3-6in snowfall. Across much of the northern Middle Atlantic the favorable flow will allow for a few snow showers to make it east of the mountains affecting the Ridge and Valley region and into the Poconos where a quick C-.5in of snow is possible. Over the northeastern mountains towards Susquehanna, Bradford, and Wayne Counties the northerly flow will be favorable for the development of a few streamers into the region potentially allowing for 2-4in of snow over the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Generally dry air will be the inhibiting factor for heavy lake effect snows across northwestern Pennsylvania especially considering the amount of cold air towards Thursday with H85s near -17C. Weak ridging aloft moves over the region towards Thursday night as a weak Alberta Clipper approaches the region and tracks across central West Virginia and central Maryland out of the Delmarva. After the passage of the light synoptic snow, ongoing lake effect will intensify towards Saturday evening under another northwest flow giving light accumulations to the snow belts. Depending on the lake effect forecast in the coming days, a snow map may be necessary to be issued Tuesday. Stay tuned with those with concerns in the lake effect snow regions!!!

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/13)
The long term pattern is favoring colder than normal temperatures and potentially stormy conditions. As I mentioned yesterday the east-based negative NAO will be retrograding towards a more favorable west-based negative NAO with above normal geopotential heights over the northern Atlantic including Greenland. With rex blocking forming towards the Hudson Bay in northern Canada, the 500mb jet pattern looks favorable going towards the week of Christmas. During my special Middle Atlantic Winter blog last winter I mentioned quite about the favorable trend for a negative to positive trending NAO causing large storms systems over the east coast. This trend may slightly be available around the 20-22 of the month. Another interesting teleconnection is the current negative AO anomaly which is nosing towards -3. This makes it one of the lowest AO anomalies in many years and I have seen statistics proving a negative AO this low in December would allow for a colder than normal winters as patterns similar to this are very difficult to budge under a winter-time regime. With favorable upstream blocking conditions and deep troughing over the east coast under a trough axis over the east coast, I think it is suffice to say the potential for a KU storm over the region is significantly higher than normal. Originally it appeared this current weak would behold the time frame of a significant storm, but guidance suggests that the pattern finally is favorable towards next week. Interesting to note, but December typically has the least amount of coastal storms during the month with significant storms sometimes difficult to come by. In fact here in Harrisburg, the largest snowstorm this month was only 13.9in back in 1960. But anything is possible especially in this February-like coastal pattern. If we can get a S/W in the southwest to buckle the jet and allow for gulf moisture to stream up the coast, this all becomes possible. The scenario would seem to be an Alberta clipper dropping out of the Midwest allowing for a miller B low to form near southern North Carolina south of Hatteras. The chances of a winter storm in this period while are high, I think the odds of a bombogenesis low are higher for an offshore low considering the anomaly of the upstream blocking. Still though today's 12/13/09 guidance was particularly interesting with the 0z GGEM and 0z ECMWF favoring a significant coastal storm just off the coast causing rain around I-95, but heavy snow just inland from there. The 0z GFS is also close to a phase and considering the 500mb chart, I think the surface features are probably too far east, therefore the actual low would probably be near benchmark. But the parallel 0z GFS shows the opportunity for a significant snowstorm for all areas in this time frame. Also wavelengths favor another significant storm between Christmas and New Years. I am doing some research for statistics for back to back coastal storms in this time frame, but so far I have not found much. Anyways let me word it this way, go about in caution but keep in mind there is great opportunity in those time frames that hopefully is not wasted. Stay tuned in the coming week!!!

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Note I am only posting this towercam until snow starts falling over the northern Middle Atlantic, lol. For now we can all be jealous of the Alaskan snow.

"Monthly Outlook" (December)
November temperature forecast was a disaster. There were conflicting evidence for the temperature trend for November and I chose below normal to stay in line with the pattern of many below normal temperature months in a row, nearly 6 or 7. A generally zonal ridge under a Pacific jet occurred across the lower 48 during much of the month after a few below normal days in the beginning of the month across the Northeast. The MJO was the driving force behind the pattern along with the unfavorable Alaskan Vortex causing well below normal temperatures across Alaska. Alaskan vortices and Gulf of Alaskan Lows are the kiss of death for cold, but especially snow chances over the east coast. Also the Polar Vortex mentioned often in November was affecting the other side of the globe across Asia allowing for record snowfall cover in Siberia and record snows as far south as Beijing, China. Generally a large depreciative anomaly in snowfall occurred across the United States with major snowfall generally subject to mountainous areas. Temperatures were generally above normal for most areas across the northern portions of the United States. Closer to home in the Middle Atlantic anomalies for the month look to be near +3.5-4.0F for most areas, which is pretty impressive. As for precipitation, generally most areas received normal to below normal precipitation which actually went according to my forecast especially with my forecast of the storm track becoming more active towards the end of the month. And looking back through at our statistics most of the rain occurred toward the end of the month with nor'easters. The temperature forecast was a disaster though as my call for below normal temperatures was severely wrong for the reasons above. Anyways let’s leave on a positive note and look what is ahead for another difficult forecast, December... December forecast looks tricky and I am taking a slightly different route than many for my forecast. It appears the MJO forcing will weaken despite entering phases 6+7; this will have less of a driving force as it did in November. On the other side though phases 6/7/8 are very favorable towards east coast troughing. Anyways it also appears the Polar Vortex over the eastern hemisphere will retrograde west but over western Canada allowing for the Pacific jet to buckle perhaps leading to very cold weather over the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies for the first half of the month. Despite this Nina-like pattern, all hope is not lost as typically this would cause a strong southeast ridge to form. It appears the east-based negative NAO may become more favorable overtime turning more west-based, which would aid in a generally weak trough flow over much of the Midwest and east coast for the first half of the month. Also there are a few signs that the Omega block will slide east from Alaska to central Canada again favoring a weakening of a southeast ridge. And with the emission of several S/W out of the southwest, there is the possibility for the STJ to cause for some stormy times in the northern Middle Atlantic. A weak trough is better than a real amplified jet for snow chances. In any case I do not think this will be an overly snowy month as blocking will be limited to the north causing inland storms. But towards the second half of the month there are many more conflicting signals as ensembles point to a retrograding of the PV to a more favorable location over the Hudson Bay which would favor very cold air over the eastern United States, but some guidance suggests a breakdown in the negative EPO. I think I will take a middle ground with my transient pattern approach.

Temperature- I am forecasting near normal temperatures for December with general anomalies over the region around (-0.5)-(+0.5) with the colder anomalies across Pennsylvania as Maryland and Delaware may see a bit more impact from any southeast ridge that forms. It looks like the second week of the month will be pretty chilly along with the third week before the pattern begins to breakdown for a time being causing warmer temperatures before winter lashes in during the beginning of January. Overall December should have a bit of fun with storm chances and will not be a blowtorch as this past November.

Precipitation- Generally I expect above normal precipitation especially with a possible active storm track from the southwest along the peripheral of the base of the weak trough over the east coast. This favors overrunning precipitation events and possible east coast storms if the subtropical jet becomes active. This December could be very similar to last year's December with above normal precipitation and overrunning storms. As for snowfall I expect near normal snowfall, although I would not be surprised if some areas end up above normal especially over northwestern Pennsylvania. As for the first snow chance I like the December 5th-8th window for the first widespread snow. Just check out the parallel 11/30/09 12z GFS.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- Trace
Monthly Total- 4.0in
Seasonal Total- 4.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 30.6F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain

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QPF Estimates as per the Euro. Take it for what it's worth...

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
good afternoon Blizz....my my my things are looking GOOD for Saturday's system.....hopefully I don't jynx us lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ooooooooo, I was working outside all bundled up, thinking my head was covered up too much because my ears were burning. But it was this blog!!! I'll believe it when I see it. And then I'll try to send it north to bust through that sharp cut-off. I don't want to hog it all. Sounds like igloo time! Oh I just jinxed it even more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Scala weighed-in at noon on the system for our area stating a "possibility" for a northward shift of the storm system. Something we didn't already know. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Really looks like the mid atlantic is going to get dumped on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol I'm quickly losing faith in this one already. it was dead yesterday, alive last night, and now it looks like a monster that's going to stay to our south haha. will it ever happen? hahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
This will be a good test for the GFS as it still holds on to the out to sea storm. On a very interesting side note the GFS has precip over PA, the NAM which brings the low much closer to us does not. Just an observation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets not give up, each individual storm, as noted, has its own precip shield, some are quite extensive, others are not. We just have to see how it developes.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7361
Well hopefully the trend continues. It would really be a shafting to miss out on such a good storm by only a small amount of real estate. Then again, with the Lower Susquehanna Valley -- it would be par for the course.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
pp- as the low deepens the precip shield will wrap up and struggle to move northward as the low heads northeast. This actually happens quite a bit with deepening lows. I remember a quite a few years ago we were to have a monster storm and a track further east mean't we had a nice sunny day. About 30 miles to the east they had a several inch snowfall, so it can happen with sharp cutoffs. It is encouraging though that the track is still trending further west albeit not much. It's close, a 50 mile jog in the low could mean we get dumped on, thats probably not the case as of right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
Waaaay too early to pontificate on the possible Christmas Storm.

In regards to this Saturday's event. Hmm, I'm not sure where I would stand right now. I have a hard time believing the cutoff would be that sharp, but at the same time I really have no meteorological explanation as to why it wouldn't happen.


Finals are almost over and the responsibility lull of the holiday has set in. That storm is basically the last thing I have to worry about for the holidays. Could make for one of my best Christmases ever.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
wow 12z NAM has a huge amount of snow in the DC area and south. Looks as though Heavysnow is going to get what he wants lol. Just based on QPF there could be spotty 20 or more inch accumulations. Much wetter than 0z run, couldnt ask for more as though has dropped a full 8mb to 984 at the height of the precip. Low is slightly further west and Susquehanna Valley just misses out on a big one with just a few scattered snow showers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Waaaay too early to pontificate on the possible Christmas Storm.

In regards to this Saturday's event. Hmm, I'm not sure where I would stand right now. I have a hard time believing the cutoff would be that sharp, but at the same time I really have no meteorological explanation as to why it wouldn't happen.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I think it will carry farther north and west. I'm still calling for 5-8" in Carlisle, so this storm better get its act together. What's going on with GFSx on the 25th and 26th? Will we get a foot or more?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
263. Finky
PP,

I am new to this stuff but i dont see how/why the sharp cut off at the mason dixon line. I live just 10 minutes north of MD and would be dissapointed not to see some decent snow....The crew over at accuweather cant seem to agree on this either. Some seem to think the storm will cary further north.....i sure hope so.
Member Since: November 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
its all based on the low track since it's a borderline event(keep in mind that just yesterday it was headed out to sea). Sometimes the low tracks up the coast and almost everyone sees some precip. which is what PP is talking about. This track might do that, it might not. There is to much bouncing around between the models. As soon as I look at the 12z runs i'll discuss further.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Baltimore? Snow. Snow snow snow snow snow. Most of the day.

A quick thing I want to address, maybe Blizz or Ono can pick up on this earlier. That's an incredibly sharp cutoff of precip the models are showing and for a storm that's supposed to be as strong as this one is, there doesn't look to be much precip to the north and west of the Low? Doesn't that strike you as a bit odd?

Just watched the HM Laughathon. He thinks the heaviest snows are in the Roanoke Valley, which the NAM would agree with. He also however thinks snow reaches as far north as State College/Williamsport/Wilkes-Barre which the NAM doesn't support. So we still have some work to do.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Coming in late...can anyone please tell me in simple terms.....what conditions will I be driving to work in Saturday Am and Pm? I work 7 am to 7 pm...in Baltimore city.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this pans out... Virginia will get slammed. We however, will not.

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Wow what a change since I was last on yesterday morning. Thats what I love about weather, it can change so much. I need to learn more about all the models and so on so I'm trying to read every post and put it together. All that i hope I'm reading is that maybe we can get a decent snow this weekend. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just watched and read WGAL's opinion and predictor models on this. They also see a light snow event for our area, however it's ALL snow, likelyhood of roughly 70 percent with uncertain storm track. AccuSnow has Camp Hill at 2.4 inches as compared to D.C. with 8.8 but those are just general numbers, they don't really mean anything.

What I'm hoping is that the PV shifts west and pulls the storm with it. I'd kill to get the 6-8 inch snowfall that somebody to our south is going to get.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Morning all, my local mets here in the NYC area are still calling for "light snow or flurries for Sat. night into Sunday, with the heaviest area of snow LIKELY remaining off shore". I'd like to see them with egg on their faces Sunday morning! Or should I say SNOW on their faces Sunday morning.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7361
WOW!!!!! This is awesome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well "the other site" has 2 scenarios for this storm, the first one being that the heaviest snowfall occurs well to our south making HeavySnow the sole big winner and the second scenario has the storm being an I-95 Special making HeavySnow and the cities the big winners. Neither solution showed much for our area, so we all need to hope a north and west trend continues with what, 2 model runs remaining before the tell-tale sign should come in.

CHA CHA CHA.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Here is the stronger worded NWS discussion from Mt holly:

OR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, POPS WERE INCREASED
AS ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NC COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID-
ATLC COAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LIKELY REMAIN. HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW CALLING FOR A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER
BEGINNING FROM S TO N ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL DATA NOW BRINGS THE SFC LOW
ON A MORE NWWD TRACK AND THIS OBVIOUSLY BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA AS WELL AS WINDS AND OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCD WITH A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW. THE NAM/WRF IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS A MORE SWD TRACK
ATTM, AND ITS SOLN IS BEING DISREGARDED FOR NOW. AT H5. A VERY
DEEP TROF MOVS EWD AND BECOMES NEG TILTED WHICH IS ULTIMATELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR PULLING THE LOW FURTHER WWD, WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPR TROF WITH A STRONG S/WV LIFTING OVER THE AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE NO PARTICULAR MODEL SOLN MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP BEING CORRECT, THE OBSERVED MDL TRENDS ARE
DIFFICULT TO IGNORE ATTM, AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLN. CERTAINLY, QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES, AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THE GFS QPF MAY BE OVERDONE. NONETHELESS, TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE SNOW, WITH THE
PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DUE TO A
PSBL FETCH FROM THE WARM OCEAN. SNOWFALL AMTS OF SEVERAL INCHES
SEEM PSBL BASED ON CURRENT FCSTS. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND UVV, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, AS WE HAVE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT LINING UP WITH PSBL INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALG THE COAST. A STRONG N TO NELY FETCH IS LIKELY UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES ON BY EARLY SUNDAY. THEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW.

ULTIMATELY, EVERYTHING IN THIS CURRENT FCST RATIONALE IS BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS MDL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WILL HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FINAL FCST.
IT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS NRN AND WWD SHIFT IN THE MDLS
WILL CONTINUE BRINGING THE STORM EVEN CLOSER TO THE CST. WHILE
THAT WOULD INCREASE PRBLMS FOR THE CST, IT WOULD PSBLY BRING IN
WARMER AIR WHICH COULD HELP KEEP ANY EVENTUAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN.


NEEDLESS TO SAY, STAY TUNED.

ONCE THIS LOW MOVES AWAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND COOL WX THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN LIGHT OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FCST AND THE
BENIGN WX BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME, THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Morning All,

Some bad news: I had a dream overnight that took place this very weekend and I was watching the news and the storm had become an inland runner giving us a quick switchover to a very cold rain.

I believe that dreams are how the mind prepares for and works life situations out in the subconscious -- sooooooo guess it's going to be an inland runner and cold rain. bummer. hahaha.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I'm heading to work now with my trusty NOAA weather radio in hand. Keep up the snowstorm voodoo. Talk to you fellow snowfreaks later.
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Mason803- Probably, if they continue to trend north, then likely other runs will still trend north though but just a little bit.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
so 12z gfs at 10:30 and the 12z ecmwf at 1:30 will tell the story
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Mason803- Yep, the 6z runs usually are mess. The NAM increased snow around here, but the GFS decreased. Looking at the 0z GFS though you probably would make out near 6in or so with 4in for me up just near Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
looks like a good trend since i went to bed last night. I doubt the models are done shifting this storm. let the 48 hour before the storm starts westward drift continue
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
When is that my man?
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HeavySnow- 12z runs will likely tell near the final story.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Tell me more! Pant, pant, droooooooool. Accusnow has me at 7.8 inches of snow already. It's looking good huh?
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HeavySnow- You are looking at your largest snowstorm in years.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Is it morning already? WU and NWS has me with a 70% chance after midnight on Friday and 80% for Saturday with possible heavy accumulations. Saying a WSW may be needed to be issued later today. Real wording was, snow likely after midnight then for saturday, SNOW!
What's up BLIZZ?
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Good morning!!! For those of us in the Lower Susquehanna Valley this looks to be close and we can only hope for a northwest trend. So let us see what today brings. By the way the Christmas storm is a definite threat...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
More snow talk in the morning...
Sweet.
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Quoting HeavySnow:
I hope we're all buried in feet of snow by Christmas if not sooner! Enjoy that snowride!


Right now, the areas with the best chance of a white Christmas extend from the central Plains through the Great Lakes and then the northeastern U.S, where snowcover already exists and more storms are possible.

I gota go horizontal. Night all!
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I hope we're all buried in feet of snow by Christmas if not sooner! Enjoy that snowride!
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Quoting HeavySnow:
That's a nice pre-Christmas gift UP. Couldn't Santa wait?


Nope. Santa is going to be delayed a few days due to inclement weather.XD
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That's a nice pre-Christmas gift UP. Couldn't Santa wait?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So I see a possible northeast snowstorm is possible this week. It appears it will be a rather compact system, according to the GFS. There could be some interesting mesoscale features/banding with this event.

Looks like another Great Lakes snowstorm is possible on Christmas! This will be the first time I experienced a Christmas snowstorm! The GFS forecasts 24 to 36 hours of northeasterly winds over my area, with with high delta Ts and deep moisture, snowfall totals between 25 to 30 inches may be a possibility in my area giving the expected duration of the event.

I got a snowmobile today. It's a Polaris Indy. It's a 1992 model. It has had some great and expensive upgrades, and even though it's outdated, it's still a nice sled. I'm hoping for some fresh power on Christmas! What a present! XD

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Quoting Blizzard92:
Nice CTP update this evening...

THREAT FOR SEVERAL INCHES (OR MORE) OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY
...WITH THE MEAN QPF FOR THE 24 HOURS 15Z SAT-15Z SUNDAY IN
THE 4-5 TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE AT KLNS. THIS QPF WILL OCCUR WITH
GREATER THAN 12:1 SNOW WATER RATIOS.


Hey Palmyra, remember my 6:45 a.m. redirect of the jetstream and my near-noon forecast of 5-8" for Carlisle/Harrisburg?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Anyone who knows better is checking many sources anyway, like us. We do have some hot sports woman anchors and regular anchors too. I guess that's where our airheads go.

SNOWSNOWSNOWSNOWSNOWSNOWSNOW
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Interesting stuff. Maybe the DC crowd needs the weather not the scene. Different group then the local yocals around this neck of the woods.
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I'm a TV cameraman in DC and have been for 23 years. So what I'm saying is...I know that ship. I was born in Chambersburg so you know I have some good PA common sense in me. I just enjoy this part of the storm most because the actual snow part rarely happens here anymore. The hype is almost always better than the real thing unfortunately here in the DC area. Our local weather folks are not very attractive, DC values knowledge over looks at least in our tv mets. Because they are not attractive. Except to their spouses and me when they get a big snow prediction right. Even some of our back-ups are pretty good. We do have some stinkers though.
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Look let me be honest, I started out at Ship as a communications/journalism major and I was thinking about being a TV Weather personality. (I'm now political science....much better for me) My advisor who had been in the Tv News biz made it clear that many TV weather types have limited knowledge, but good faces. Sure they are typically up to snuff on above average weather knowledge. But do I believe they are analyzing the models like Blizz and even the weather wannabees at accuweather? No. And they need to put a relatively safe forecast together probably around 10-10:30, which is when the most recent models were heating up. They also talk with State College NWS, which only recently updated discussion. So....while we can all freak about a slight West track, if they do that and yell "6-8inches everyone get ready" and the models later tonight go back east and we get an inch, they lose credibility and the station viewers, and then money for ads. They MUST MUST be restrained and they don't always have enough knowledge to step on TV and be ready to predict what Blizz can. Just keep that in mind when you don't get the hype out of them you want.

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The DC locals are usually better than most. But they are being conservative because it's only Wednesday. Chumps!
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this is awesome stuff! just awesome, and Blizz, nice title change! It's seem were under a Winter Hype Advisory right now, can't wait until it's upgraded to WSW!!!!! Keep us updated, I am still learning, and I have not nearly enough knowledge to understand if things are looking good or not!
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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