Another major winter storm!!!

By: Zachary Labe , 8:26 PM GMT on December 04, 2009

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Thoughts on December 5th Snowstorm...
Well surprise, surprise... It appears for once we have a decent coastal storm to start December. But look at that date, the infamous and magical December 5th did its dirty work again. This will be the third year in a row for accumulating snow on December 5th here in Harrisburg and many surrounding areas along with many other past seasons also. I think this storm is going to take many average "joe" citizens by the surprise. For those of us in the Middle Atlantic it looks like most of us will cash in with at least a coating or more and some areas unexpectantly may be the jackpot areas where originally it looked like meager accumulations. I am quite enthused for this event considering March 1 was the last accumulating snowfall for many areas. This snowstorm may help to push snow totals across the southern Middle Atlantic for average accumulation for the entire month. Keep in mind December monthly totals are rarely above 5in in the Middle Atlantic. I do not have too many immediate concerns for this system, even though the forecast has changed dramatically in the last 12hrs. Initially at the beginning of the week this chance looked very good with an amplflied trough and strong southwest cutoff allowing the trough to turn negatively tilted. The main factor lacking was a high pressure to the north and upstream blocking. But during the week models moved east with the system which made some sense, but did not. First off low pressures near the Panhandle of Florida typically do track near benchmark or east especially without a real arctic airmass with an anomalous negatively tilted trough, but without upstream blocking in this scenario I saw it being trended west and not east. Think of it this way, without blocking many times storms track to our west and not east. Anyways then the GFS and ECMWF showed great interaction between a Pacific Northwest shortwave and a Great Lakes cutoff weak shortwave. This was the initiating feature to push this storm west and this type of interaction is often the kiss of death for coastal runners. But along came the high resolution model, which is actually very good at predicting coastals, but anyways it came along and showed a farther west low. Many meteorologists threw the NAM out being 84hrs out at the end of the NAM range. But then the models began to swing west and this is now continuing. There is quite a bit of gulf moisture; note current Florida radar. A widespread snowstorm is coming with initially rainfall south of the Mason-Dixon line. There are a lot of things on my to do list tonight for making this forecast, but I think this blog will be completely finished by 10pm or so. So who is ready!!!

Timeline...
COMING SOON!!!


***The timeline for the second system will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
It appears that cold air will be a problem for those south of the Mason-Dixon Line especially below 700ft. Many areas will start out as rain with nearly .25in QPF being used for pure rain especially towards I-95 on southward including the major metropolitans. But as the storms wraps out off the coast it appears cold air will be pulled from the northeast as the primary winds will be out of the north-northeast instead of the east. Therefore this will cause a limited effect on surface temperatures on the coast from the warm SSTs of the Atlantic. Most areas will turn to snow by the second half of the storm with additional QPF for all areas. Many areas south of the Mason-Dixon line will also have ground temperature problems with areas to the north of the line having initial problems. But from north to south snow will accumulate courtesy of colder air and increase in precipitation rates. This rain/snow line is a rough estimate for the precipitation types during the height of the storm.

My rain/snow line is... Charlottesville, VA - Dale City, VA - Annapolis, MD - Georgetown, DE - Lakewood, NJ

*Note these lines are estimates and actual locations may vary. Snow is north of line, rain is south.

Storm Reports...

*Note in general the forecast was a success!

Storm Impacts...
1. First accumulating snow for season in Middle Atlantic.
2. Initially snow melts upon contact before precipitation rates increase.
3. Snow accumulations will not exceed 6in for most locales.
4. Rain/snow mix is likely towards southern Maryland and southern Delaware.
5. Widespread impacts up and down the I-95 corridor.

Snow Map...

*Note especially in the 3-6in region, it is a bit elevation specific and most areas will be in the lower range of that total but isolated 6inches are possible especially towards the Chester County hills in the northwestern part of the county.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Moderate snow likely; 3-5inch
Baltimore, MD- Rain and snow to all snow; 2-4inch
Washington, DC- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Wilmington, DE- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Dover, DE- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
Cape May, NJ- Rain with a few flakes; Trace of snow
Trenton, NJ- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
New York City, NY- Rain and snow to snow; slushy accumulation of 1-3inch
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate snow at times; 2-4inch
Binghamton, NY- Periods of light snow; 1inch
Albany, NY- Light snow showers; Coating of snow
Hartford, CT- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-4inch
Concord, NH- Periods of light snow; 1inch
Providence, RI- Rain and snow to all snow; 1-3inch
Worcester, MA- Moderate periods of snow; 2-5inch
Boston, MA- Rain changing to snow; 1-2inch
Nantucket, MA- Mostly rain with a few flakes; Trace of snow
Hyannis, MA- Rain and snow; Slushy accumulation C-1inch
Portland, ME- Intermittent light snow; 1inch
Bangor, ME- Light snow showers; C-1inch
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
COMING SOON!!!

After the storm...
It appears next week will be quite active with a large amplified storm affecting the Middle Atlantic around the Wednesday time frame. Despite the ECMWF and GFS guidance forecast a Ohio Valley system, I think this has the option to develop a secondary low off of the Delmarva to save us north of the Mason-Dixon line and allow for some accumulating snow. This recent 18z GFS run shows the option beautifully along with the 12z UKMET on board also. I am definitely watching this period as it looked favorable back in November where I highlighted the threat around the 28th. It all depends on if we can get a secondary low pressure to form. At least 1inch of front-end snow is somewhat likely especially across northern Maryland on northward, but southward trends have been noted on several of the models as this system is accompanied by a strong cold front. This cold front will allow for the first cold blast of the season towards the end of next week. Cold air is building across western Canada courtesy of the retrograting Polar Vortex into the region, which will allow for some cold air to begin to advect into the United States. It appears H85s will drop below -10C for many across the northern Middle Atlantic allowing for highs in the 30s for temperatures around 5-10F below normal. This cold blast has been highly advertised on the models for the past 7-10 days. We still are lacking upstream blocking courtesy of the east based negative NAO so storms tracking to our west through the next week or two are definitely possible, but I am keeping a close eye on the system for next week.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.5in
Monthly Total- 4.0in
Seasonal Total- 4.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 30.6F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain

December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...
December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...
December 5th Snowstorm... (Blizzard92)
Summit of Blue Mountain (elevation ~1300ft), just northeast of Harrisburg, PA. About 1.5-2inches of accumulated snowfall so far.
December 5th Snowstorm...

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744. shipweather
4:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Very excited about new blog. I'm about to try to head to brunch. I can see all the cars are covered in ice. And it's funny I slept in late today and had a weird feeling because usually I am awoken by cars, but there were very few, the roads must be bad. This an interesting little ice event we've had here!

So far for Ship this year we've had about 4.5 inches of snow, 2 WWA, 1 WSW, and a Frz Ra. Adv. Good start, it's only Dec 13th!

-j ney.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
743. Zachary Labe
3:59 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
***New blog should be out within the hour or so!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
742. originalLT
3:32 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
My temp rising rapidly, up to 31.6F. Looks like precip is about 30-40mins. away. Going down to Cos Cob Ct. to help my friend in his store to hopfully catch some Xmas business. His store is right next to I95 so I'll be closer to the water there, usually means 2-3degrees warmer there in winter.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
741. Zachary Labe
3:15 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
onoweather- It is exactly 31.4F here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
740. onoweather
3:12 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
blizz- whats your temp? my temp has been 32.9 for the past hour, I think the sensor managed to get some ice on it.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
739. Zachary Labe
3:09 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
This slightly reminds me of the ice event last year for the day after Christmas where there were so many accidents for a little bit of freezing rain. I even believe a large stretch of the Pennsylvania turnpike was shut down then.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
738. Mason803
3:08 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
radar is really blossoming to the south and west
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
737. Zachary Labe
3:05 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Temperature remains 31F here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
736. lawntonlookers
3:03 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Icy here in Lawnton. Penn Dot and Swatara TWP are just getting out to treat the roads. I am not sure why they got caught with their paints down again, and didn't pretreat the roads. Rutherford bridge from Derry St to the Walmart was really bad around 9AM.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
735. Mason803
3:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
CTP PNS:

***********************FREEZING RAIN REPORTS***********************

LOCATION COMMENTS

PENNSYLVANIA

...ADAMS COUNTY...
ORTANNA 0.10 INCHES OF ICE AND 29 DEGREES

...BEDFORD COUNTY...
BEDFORD ICY ROADS

...BLAIR COUNTY...
ALTOONA ROADS ICE COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY

...CAMBRIA COUNTY...
JOHNSTOWN ICY ROADS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS

...CENTRE COUNTY...
STATE COLLEGE ICY ROADS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS

...LYCOMING COUNTY...
MUNCY ICY ROADS AND NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS

...MCKEAN COUNTY...
BRADFORD ICY ROADS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS

...POTTER COUNTY...
COUDERSPORT MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND 28 DEGREES

...WARREN COUNTY...
CHANDLERS VALLEY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND 27 DEGREES
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
734. onoweather
2:57 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Everyone is going slow but its really starting to melt should be better in an hour or two.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
733. Zachary Labe
2:52 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
onoweather- O gosh, I am glad we all pretreated again. I through some ice melt on my sidewalk and driveway, but so far I have not seen any cars go down my road.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
732. onoweather
2:45 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
PENNDOT truck just slid sideways and hit the bridge down from my house, even they are only doing about 10mph. The roads like a skate rink.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
731. Zachary Labe
2:43 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
937 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

...VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY. LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
REPORT NUMEROUS VEHICLE ACCIDENTS AND SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS
UNTIL TEMPERATURES RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING LATER TODAY.

TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO DELAY TRIPS IF POSSIBLE. IF TRAVEL CANNOT
BE AVOIDED...BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION
AND ALSO ALLOW EXTRA FOLLOWING DISTANCE ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
730. jthal57
2:33 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
mix of sleet/Frz rain just started here, 27F
729. Zachary Labe
2:29 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Ugh; I went out to get the paper, but caught myself luckily, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
728. PalmyraPunishment
2:28 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
So I just stepped outside to get something from my car... and I didn't make it 2 feet before falling. The first step doomed me. Sheet of ice here in Camp Hill and now I have a knee that looks like a head. Nice. hahahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
727. Zachary Labe
2:24 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
originalLT- Thanks!

onoweather- There will likely be a chance for a few lake effect streamers into our region during the second half of the week and possible Friday night a clipper could move through. But nothing too significant. I will have a new blog out today to detail the coming week or two.

pittsburghnurse- It is only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems. Stay safe!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
726. pittsburghnurse
2:19 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Coating of ice city-wide has closed several major roadways. Accidents are all over the place. Temp remains hovering at 32. I really wanted to get out this morning and get some things done but will have to sit on it for a while.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
725. onoweather
2:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
blizz- I'm at the freezing mark now,just a thin sheet of ice but its causing a lot of accidents. Any chances of snow before december 20?
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
724. originalLT
2:12 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Morning Blizz and all. You were spot-on Blizz with the arrival of the precip. I thought it wouldn't make it till late morning but you explained why it would make to your area by 7-8AM! By me it got down surprisingly cold overnight even with a broken sky cover of clouds, down to 18.7F . Now up to 25.8F while NYC just 35miles to my SW is already 40F. Cloudy now , calm winds, Baro.1028mb and falling.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
723. Zachary Labe
2:03 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
This morning's 0z parallel GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF both show a coastal storm for the 20-22 with heavy snow across inland areas. Ensembles for these models also show something of concern in this time frame. I think if a big system is going to occur out of this pattern, it will be in that time frame. This is our system of concern to track despite it being many days away.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
722. WillHershey
2:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Looks like we had a little bit of ice this morning, had some laying around the flower beds. Just raining now.
Member Since: December 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
721. Zachary Labe
1:47 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Good morning all!!! Light freezing rain here this morning, and big surprise for the NWS to extend the freezing rain advisory southward, hahaha.

Stanb999- That storm was a very strong low originating out of the gulf of mexico. The winds allowed the low to be much stronger in its effects. But I would agree nor'easters affect much more populated regions therefore having larger effects.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
720. Stanb999
1:36 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Good morning Blizzard,

The weather channel was on the TV and they were talking about the "blizzard" in IOWA. They said they had 50 mph winds and 10" of snow. The worst storm in 30 years?

Is this really much more than an Alberta Clipper? It certainly doesn't rival a Nor'easter.

So the question is... Are the people in the mid-west Soft?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
719. HeavySnow
1:25 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
And I yours weathergeek5. It's coming, hopefully before Christmas, but it's coming!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
718. weathergeek5
1:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Yep here it is all rain too. It is 33 here. I feel your pain heavy snow.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
717. HeavySnow
1:16 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
34 and nothing but rain/drizzle here. Even though the radar says otherwise. I need some more snow please. Come on Santa!!!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
716. PalmyraPunishment
1:02 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Where's Corky?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
715. Mason803
1:01 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
adams county is very slick. countywide accidents. still 28f with light freezing rain
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
714. hurigo
12:50 PM GMT on December 13, 2009
Morning All,
It's 55 here on the border, 60 in Kill Devil Hills and twenty degrees colder--up in Richmond at 35
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
713. Mason803
11:58 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
light freezing has started

temp 28
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
712. shipweather
6:50 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
27-25 here depending on where you check. So it's very cold. Should be interesting to see what happens. I would love a huge ice storm to start finals week!

Catch you all in the morning.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
711. originalLT
4:02 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
Has become cloudy, temp. 22.6F Baro.1034mb. Wind calm. Local mets calling for freezing rain and or sleet by mid-morning going over to rain by 12-1pm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
710. jthal57
2:09 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
23.9F here.

looks like we may both see some frozen precip for a short period Sun am
709. Zachary Labe
1:51 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
23.9F here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
708. jthal57
1:31 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
23.5F here now
707. shipweather
1:27 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
Wow, it got cold here very fast. Under 30 now. But the school's weather station is down, so I can't get accurate data.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
706. Mason803
1:15 AM GMT on December 13, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
The H5 progged on the GFS reminds me of the December 5, 2007 clipper that tracked south of the region allowing us to be closer to the jet streak in southern Pennsylania allowing for some impressive totals...


i remember this event. I had a nice 6" snowfall.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
705. Zachary Labe
10:54 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
The H5 progged on the GFS reminds me of the December 5, 2007 clipper that tracked south of the region allowing us to be closer to the jet streak in southern Pennsylania allowing for some impressive totals...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
704. originalLT
10:34 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Gotcha! Thanks Blizz
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
703. Zachary Labe
10:08 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Blizz and all, do you think the precip. shield will make it to southern pa. by morning, there seems to be alot of realestate to cover by say 8am when the cold air might still be in place? Its still way down South.

Warm air advection and isentropic lift will allow the precipitation to develop and advance northeast as the high pressure pulls off the coast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
702. originalLT
9:44 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Hi Blizz and all, do you think the precip. shield will make it to southern pa. by morning, there seems to be alot of realestate to cover by say 8am when the cold air might still be in place? Its still way down South.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
701. Mason803
9:39 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Well it is typical... CTP expressing their hatred towards the southern counties. I am pretty sure many areas in the southern Lower Susquehanna Valley will see some freezing rain on onset and considering cold road temperatures, things could be a mess tomorrow morning.


yep blizz,

my temp has bottomed to 31F already with a dew of 18F. LWX has headlines for even baltimore county.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
700. Zachary Labe
9:22 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Well it is typical... CTP expressing their hatred towards the southern counties. I am pretty sure many areas in the southern Lower Susquehanna Valley will see some freezing rain on onset and considering cold road temperatures, things could be a mess tomorrow morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
699. RkTec
8:14 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Winter weather advisories will likely be going out for many of us today as moisture from the south works into the region causes evaporational cooling aloft and at the surface allowing for a period of sleet and freezing rain tomorrow morning. Ice accumulations should be around .1inch or so since object surfaces are pretty cold.


Good call bliz! lol

Winter Weather Advisory

Statement as of 2:29 PM EST on December 12, 2009

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 am to noon EST
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Poconos... Lehigh Valley and Berks County
which is in effect from 7 am to noon EST Sunday.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely at the
onset of precipitation on Sunday morning. As southerly winds
continue during the day Sunday, temperatures will rise and by
the afternoon all precipitation should be in the form of plain rain.
The threat for frozen precipitation will last the longest over the
higher elevations in the Poconos.

Any accumulations of snow and or sleet should be minimal and ice
accretions from the freezing rain should be less than one tenth of
an inch. But, any ice on untreated surfaces will make for slippery
and hazardous walking and travel.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.

-----------------

State college went with freezing rain advisories

Freezing Rain Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

.A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063-130830-
/O.NEW.KCTP.ZR.Y.0001.091213T1000Z-091213T1800Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-
317 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS EVENING TO PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AROUND
DAWN SUNDAY. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TURN TO PLAIN RAIN BY
AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 30S. THE AREAS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING RAIN AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOMERSET AND JOHNSTOWN...NORTHWARD
THROUGH PHILIPSBURG AND COUDERSPORT. THE AREAS LEAST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY...FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
698. TheDawnAwakening
7:58 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Blizzard, it appears that central NH may end up with a few inches before changing over to rain or sleet.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
697. Zachary Labe
7:40 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Winter weather advisories will likely be going out for many of us today as moisture from the south works into the region causes evaporational cooling aloft and at the surface allowing for a period of sleet and freezing rain tomorrow morning. Ice accumulations should be around .1inch or so since object surfaces are pretty cold.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
696. TheDawnAwakening
7:35 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Yeah Blizzard, the clipper is in most of the medium to longer range models. A big change from the monster miller A storm they showed last week. Now we just need the models to develop a more amplified trough to support a track closer to the coast. It is these storms that bring us the most favorable set ups for ocean effect snow events. I remember that in 1999 we got like 25" of snow from an ocean storm that developed to far out to directly effect us, but we got ocean effect snows. I personally don't remember the storm, but records prove it.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
695. Zachary Labe
7:19 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
Quoting RkTec:
Looks like a potential alberta clipper Dec. 19-20 may be the next shot at some snow. Somethings got to give eventually sometime between the 19th-25th. lol Mt. Holly is not jumping on the GFS bandwagon just yet though.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

ON FRIDAY, THE GFS IS FORECASTING AN ALBERTA TYPE LOW TO MAKE IT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT. THIS HAS TO
DO WITH HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING A POLAR VORTEX MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH RETROGRADE IT, BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF WITH ITS RETROGRESSION AND THUS PASSES THE LOW INTO
OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND ALL OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT
AS FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

THE GFS REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE COLDEST TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH STILL REMAINS LOGICAL GIVEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH POLE, WE LEANED CLOSER TO ITS THERMAL FIELDS
THAN THE ECMWF.






I sort of like this clipper threat as our next best chance of accumulating snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086
694. Zachary Labe
7:10 PM GMT on December 12, 2009
hurigo- Well I try to do that in my afternoon thoughts section and 7-day forecast section. The blog above if a special format one for a significant winter storm, but my typically weekly weather blogs try to both offer a scientific discussion and generic discussion.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15086

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