October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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577. originalLT
4:08 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
Hi Blizz and all, Beautiful here in SW CT. after almost 2" of rain. No water in my basement, that's amazing! I guess putting a tarp over my bilco doors worked! Blizz , one more thing about the W.C., did you say they are going to show movies? Wow, thats really going off the deep-end. That's terrible.I wonder what guys like Cantore and Dr. Steve Lyons really think about this and the whole direction that station is taking. I guess they can't say much, they don't want to lose their jobs. Those are the two guys I do like on the station.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
576. pittsburghnurse
3:45 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
Shore, I remember when TWC was more than the hype and glitz it's putting out now. It was a first class operation. Maybe they'll figure out their current format needs deep sixing and go back to the way it once was.

Another OT, GO STEELERS! A beautiful day in the Burgh for football. Sunshine and a high of 59 expected. Past peak as far as foliage. We lost a lot of leaves to the wind yesterday.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
575. Zachary Labe
3:20 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
Good morning all!!! What a perfect Fall morning. I already took my Sunday hike through Blue Mountain. The desperate attempts the weather channel is making is pathetic, Al Roker, come on he is a joke. And this new MSNBC news updates throughout the day is ridiculous. Now they are playing movies, I guess the Wizard of Oz will be on tomorrow, lol. New blog out by late afternoon!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
574. shoreacres
3:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
RaspberryPatch ~ Trust me on this one. Mom and electronics don't mix. Period. I live within a minute or two of her so I can help out in emergencies quickly. At least twice a week the "emergency" is that she's forgotten how to work her tv remote.

Better I should just keep an eye on things and tell her when to panic ;-)

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
573. weathergeek5
3:12 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
I really don't watch the weather channel anymore. I keep it glued here when weather strikes or as long as I have power.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
572. TheRasberryPatch
3:01 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
shoreacres - we have been saying that on and off throughout Blizz's blog. it is disgusting. if you ever want to read something interesting about TWC - look up the guy that started TWC and his rants on the channel.

what you should do is buy your mother a weather radio. there aren't any graphics, but they tell what is going on in her immediate area. she should have one anyway, at least for emergency purposes. and there is always her daughter hahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
571. shoreacres
2:31 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
RE: the weather channel and their so-called "weather features". They lost me some months ago - I got sick to death of flipping the channel on and finding nothing but replays of hurricane Camille or a decades-old earthquake. Or, more glop "global warming". I can get my political propaganda from CNN, MSNBC and Fox, thank you very much.

What bothers me is that so many people - like my mother, age 91, came to depend on the weather channel for - well, for weather. Now, if she wants to know if a local storm is dangerous, she calls me. There's never anything useful on that channel.

End of rant. :-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
570. jthal57
2:19 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
1.81" (1.57 Sat.) for the two-day event here, Blizz
569. originalLT
4:50 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
Hi all, rain stopped here in Stamford CT. at about 1130pm, we had a total of 1.98"...over an inch fell from about 6:30 till 10:30 pm. Skys are clearing, see some stars, Baro 1003mb, wind calm. temp still mild at 60F now. On another topic, was very dissapointed with the W.Channel tonight, went to check it several times between 8-11pm and it was all "canned shows" about tornado chasing, which I've seen already, no dicussion of tonight's weather which was bad enough to post-pone a baseball playoff game. Really bad when they feel it is more important to put on these canned shows than to discuss the weather, their original function. I guess its kind of like MTV not showing music videos, which was their original idea. Except that I feel current weather shuld take precidence over canned shows. Are they doing this for ratings?, if so they'vd lost me as a viewer. Sorry for going on so long, I guess I am just angree.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
568. shoreacres
3:42 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
Hi, Bliz, pittsburghnurse, raspberrypatch et.al -

I've heard the same good things about Paranormal Activity. Well, good if you like that sort of thing. Anyway, I have heard and read that you're right, Bliz - it's more a psychological thriller and not so much special effects, and really, really scary.

Me, I'm going to go see Where the Wild Things Are! I missed the book, so I have some catching up to do.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
567. pittsburghnurse
3:33 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
Thanks for the recommendation. I saw The Exorcist when it first came out in theaters. People were truly petrified. There were widespread reports of fainting and heart attacks among moviegoers. I've heard this new movie is really frightening as well. It's been a long time since a really good horror movie's come out.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
566. Zachary Labe
1:29 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
Well a bit off-topic... I have a movie recommendation. Now at first it may seem for most that there is not much out at the theaters, but there is a very simple and one of the most terrifying movies since the Exorcist out, "Paranormal Activity." The idea of it is so simple with the fear of isolation and the dark which everyone has and putting it in one's home adds an additional realm of possibilities. It was a wonderful movie, but not for the faint at heart. I have never seen an audience so petrified on the way out. Even for those not into horror films, it is an interesting storyline and not the typical cheesy 21st century film.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
565. TheRasberryPatch
1:23 AM GMT on October 25, 2009
1.25" for the two days

its amazing how the first part of the month was dry and now we are almost at 4".

my maples are about 50%. my dogwood is a gorgeous red. usually the leaves aren't all on there for the complete turn. usually we have some storms that rip half of them. Japanese maple is also beautiful
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
564. Mason803
11:14 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
leaves are peaking around south mountain as well. i took a drive today and saw some great colors throughout the area. final rainfall total for me 1.46". just had a wind gust to 36mph on my new tower.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
563. originalLT
10:29 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
As of 6PM I have 0.90" of rain, it has almost stopped now but it looks like a lot more over the next several hours. Baro. 1004mb falling slowly, SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
562. Zachary Labe
10:29 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Fall colors are peaking here along Blue Mountain this week. They have absolutely popped the last two days and the talk around here is they are some of the best colors in years, I agree. The wet summer helped to aid in terrific color. Many other parts of Pennsylvania recorded some of the best fall colors in nearly a decade especially near State College until the snow brought all of the leaves down.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
561. weathergeek5
10:27 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
It has been pouring here!!! I also heard a few rumbles of thunder
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
560. TheRasberryPatch
8:33 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
it has been raining the past 1 1/2 hours. not sure how much i lost connection. that is next on my list of things to do. install a new battery and if that doesn't work i will be moving my station. i think i may do that anyway. the locust trees are amazing. they were not even around when i placed my station and now they are 15' tall up on top of the hill in the field adjacent to my yard. they are probably 15' from the station. if they can grow that tall in 2 years then next year they will be over 20'.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
559. originalLT
8:04 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Blizz, are you getting any of that big area of rain that developed, or is it just east of you? Its moving NE, I think it will get me in a couple of hours, maybe in three or four hours.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
558. TheRasberryPatch
6:44 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
69F

0.98" still a bit of drizzle

winds have shifted but mostly calm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
557. originalLT
5:31 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Looking foreward to the new blog, some local mets are hinting at a big storm next weekend, for the mid atlantic and northeast.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
556. Zachary Labe
5:12 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Good afternoon everyone!!! Looks like a grand total of 1.29inches of rain here. Front looks like it is passing through central Pennsylvania as sun is now out here with a wind shift from the southeast to now the west. Temperature is still 68 and I wonder how high it can get before the drier and cooler air moves in. Sorry about my tardiness in a new blog...As I mentioned earlier this week would be busy and I got over a sinus infection the first half of this week. A new typical weekly weather blog will definitely be out this weekend.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
555. originalLT
5:07 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Did anybody else have trouble getting on the WU site? I couldn't for about 2 hours.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
554. RkTec
5:06 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 12:35 PM EDT on October 24, 2009

... Potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening...

Light showers are scattered throughout the region, but later this
afternoon the potential exists for much stronger storms accompanied
by damaging winds and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

The atmosphere will become more unstable as temperatures rise into
the 70s and dew points in the 60s. In addition... winds ahead of an
approaching cold front are very strong in the lowest layers of the
atmosphere and could descend to the ground with damaging results.

While all areas could experience a strong thunderstorm, the
greatest threat appears to be extreme southeast Pennsylvania,
parts of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.

Stay tuned in the event a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
553. originalLT
3:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Of course, just as I say its only a light mist, it has started raining harder, and the Temp has jumped up to 63F, Baro 1009mb falling, wind generally S 5-10 mph. I should have looked at the radar BEFORE posting!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
552. originalLT
2:49 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Good morning, we've had 0.40" of rain so far up to 10AM. Hust cloudy now , with light mist. 57 degrees.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
551. TheRasberryPatch
1:57 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
looks like a big blob of raining heading our way very soon Blizz.

what do you think is the forecast for the weekend Blizz
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
550. weathergeek5
1:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
This program is great I am watching it now:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/104087/national-geographic-specials-storm-of-the-century
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
549. lawntonlookers
1:46 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Winds this morning are light at the surface, but pretty strong at 3000 ft. somewhere around 50 K
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
548. Mason803
1:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
1.19" of rain

temp 66

wind south @ 10 w/ gust to 22
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
547. TheRasberryPatch
11:39 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
0.62" so far
temp is 66F
winds out of SSE
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
546. jthal57
11:32 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
.52" so far here
545. weathergeek5
11:26 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
It seems that this is a normal fall. What I mean is we have the cold spells then a few warmer days then back to cool fall weather. Here is the near term from my NWS:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WRF-NMM HAD A BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE GFS AT 00Z AT BOTH
850MB AND 500MB. THE FLOW AT 500MB DID NOT LOOK BACKED ENOUGH ON THE
GFS TO OUR S AND MAY BE THE REASON THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
COME FLYING IN FASTER THAN THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM. WE WILL THUS
WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE LATTER FOR THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD BEFORE
INCLUDING SOME GFS INFO IN LATER PERIODS.

NEVER A GOOD SIGN WHEN DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S IN
LATE OCTOBER. LATER TODAY WE MAY FIND OUT WHY. THE WARM FRONT IS
ALREADY MAKING SOME HEADWAY THROUGH OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NORTH. AN INCREASING LLJ FCST TO EXCEED 50KTS WILL HELP MAKE
IT HAVE LESS RESISTANCE THAN NORMAL CLEARING OUR CWA. PRECIPITATION
TO OUR W ALREADY HAS A "CONVECTIVE" LOOK TO IT.

THE BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM FOR
TODAY IS WHAT THEY DO WITH THE NC CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE GFS
TAKES A SHORT WAVE IN ALABAMA AND ADVECTS IT THROUGH OUR CWA
BLOSSOMING THE CONVECTION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAN RGEM AND
THE WRF-NMM DO NOT AND BACK IT FARTHER TO THE WEST. AT LEAST BASED
ON THE 00Z INITIALIZATION THIS LOOKED MORE LOGICAL AS THE 500MB FLOW
ON THE GFS DID NOT APPEAR BACKED ENOUGH. THUS ITS LLJ IS FARTHER
EAST BY 18Z. INFERRING THE PREV ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT THE SLOWER
WRF-NMM PLACEMENT. LASTLY THE GFS IS SHOWING FCST MID LVL QVEC
DIVERGENCE THIS AFTN IN DE AND NJ AND HAS ITS CONCENTRATED
CONVERGENCE STILL IN PA.

THUS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA, THERE MAY VERY WELL BE
A PCPN BREAK TODAY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS AS WE WAIT FOR THE CDFNT
TO APPROACH. WE WILL REACH THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE, SO WE
DID NOT WANT TO PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSRA OCCURRING. WE
ADDED THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE FCST 925MB AND 850MB STABILITY
INDICES AND THEN MOVED IT ACROSS OUR CWA THE REST OF THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THE PRECIPITATION BREAK SOLUTION WILL
ENHANCE OUR CHANCES. THIS SHOULD GIVE US SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE WHICH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE. THE WRF-NMM SFC DEW POINT PROJECTIONS ARE TOO HIGH.
EVEN SO, THE GFS HAS SOME SFC BASED CAPE FCST FOR NJ AND DE AND WITH
EVENTS LIKE THIS, IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE MUCH WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SFC FCST TO BE 50 TO 60KTS FOR THEM TO MIX DOWN. OFTEN ITS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OR THE NARROW CFRB THAT BECOMES THE FORCE THAT MIXES
THE WINDS DOWNWARD. PRECEDING THE FRONT THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER
WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2K AND FCST SHEAR OF ABOUT 50KTS ARE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO IMPLY SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS IF THEY CAN BE
DISCRETE. WITH THE FORMER WE MIGHT CATCH A BREAK IF IT COINCIDES
WITH THE FNT AS IT SHOULD NOT PASS THROUGH OUR CWA TIL THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE HIER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS PASS A LINE OF TSRAS THRU THE
DELAWARE VALLEY AT 23Z.

WE WILL CARRY ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR ZONES, GRIDS AND HWO. THERE IS
ALSO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY WELL AS IT LOOKS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING TO OUR
W AND SW. BUT PWATS ARE RUNNING GREATER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
IT HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST WEEK AFTER NOR`EASTER NUMBER TWO WENT
OFFSHORE AND PCPN AMTS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT BEEN ROBUST.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT UNLESS THERE IS TRAINING THIS IS
MORE OF AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVY TYPE EVENT VS A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BECAUSE OF ABOVE EITHER AN OUTRIGHT WARMER NAM MOS OR A COMPROMISE
NAM MOS/GFS MOS COMPROMISE NORTH LOOKS BETTER THAN GFS MOS ITSELF.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
544. Zachary Labe
11:19 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
weathergeek5- Yep, the warm front rose throughout the region. The dirty warm sector may allow for a few stronger thunderstorms to develop near the Delmarva later today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
543. weathergeek5
11:04 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Temps rose throughout the night. It is now 64 here.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
542. Zachary Labe
11:00 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
1.22inches of rain here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
541. weathergeek5
1:44 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Quoting weathergeek5:

Even though my post will not be weather related I want to shout it from the rooftops that I was accepted to LAW SCHOOL!!!!!!!! My hobby is the weather. But I hate math so being a full fledged meteorologist is not for me. I start on January 11 th so starting then if you do not see me on here as much you will know where I will be. I will still be working full time but instead of completing my Juris Doctorate in 3 years it will take me 4 years to complete it. Then after that I will have the joy of taking PA and De's state bar exams. Tbis site will have the weather nut legal shark.



I wonder if I will have any snow days????
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
540. originalLT
1:30 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
It seems the radar elements are moving mor ENE now which means I'm gonna get wet.
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539. originalLT
1:21 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Congrats Weathergeek5, its natural to be scared, its a big step. Just work hard and you'll make it.
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538. TheRasberryPatch
1:14 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Congratulations weathergeek5

0.31"
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
537. Mason803
11:42 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
up to .62" of rain. steady light rain currently
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
536. weathergeek5
11:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
But it is lot of sacrifice and hard work ahead. I am a bit scared now
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
535. Zachary Labe
11:22 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
weathergeek5- Congratulations!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
534. weathergeek5
11:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Even though my post will not be weather related I want to shout it from the rooftops that I was accepted to LAW SCHOOL!!!!!!!! My hobby is the weather. But I hate math so being a full fledged meteorologist is not for me. I start on January 11 th so starting then if you do not see me on here as much you will know where I will be. I will still be working full time but instead of completing my Juris Doctorate in 3 years it will take me 4 years to complete it. Then after that I will have the joy of taking PA and De's state bar exams. Tbis site will have the weather nut legal shark.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
533. originalLT
11:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Yeah, Blizz, I see you are under a pretty good batch of rain now, the way its moving, SW to NE, looks like it may slide by to my NW, maybe.Tough to see if it has enough eastward motion to get me. I guess I'll know for sure in a few hours. Of course if the whole area expands in coverage I'll definitly get rain tonight.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511
532. TheRasberryPatch
11:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
0.18" so far with rain coming down
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
531. Zachary Labe
10:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
.35inches of rain now currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
530. Mason803
8:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
0.11" here
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
529. TheRasberryPatch
7:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
nothing measureable yet. i closed up my pool. i think that is why i haven't had freezing temps. hahaha

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
528. lawntonlookers
7:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
We had a slight drizel in Lawnton this afternoon, but it looks like more this evening. I guess this iw what was left over from Rick. I will check back in in the AM. Have a good evening Blizz. Any football tonight?
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
527. originalLT
7:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Hi Blizz, temps about 25 degrees colder today than yesterday at this same time. 49F now East wind 5-10 mph. Baro 1022mb. No rain here so far, just cloudy.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7511

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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