October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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LMAO!!!

The 12Z NAM is absurd!!

I tell you one thing, if that model verifies there won't be a tree left standing in the Poconos!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
charlesimages- Good morning! Are you ready for another snow filled winter up there?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Hey Blizz we had some snow in Michigan this morning south of I-96!

Hello again Sully =)
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Hazleton always gets snow...lol
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Snow falling as far south as Hazleton...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
The ECMWF is rather wet too, according to Albany.

BGM already has us under a watch for that storm on top of the advisory we have for this storm.

Here it is in Mid-October and we have two flags issued for winter weather for separate events running concurrently. That's something that hardly happens in January! haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sullivanweather- 0z ECMWF brings the low a bit closer to the coast than in earlier runs. Idiotic NAM thermo codes used indicate 12inches of snow for KMDT. What a joke... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
The NAM model really blows up that second coastal low, huh?
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Stanb999- O yes, two October snows in a row, wow. Keep us updated!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Morning Blizzard

It's started light rain/snow mix here just to the west of Clarks Summit(I'm at work).

Bet it will be snowing good by the time I get home. :-)
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Looks like parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley in the threat of 10% threat of 4inch snow prob by HPC on Saturday. That is what Sullivanweather and I have been talking about with the upper level low/inverted trough.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
sullivanweather- Already down to 35degrees on Stony Mountain which is a few miles north of here and close to the elevation of Blue Mountain, about 300ft taller.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
I think you'll get something out of this. The upper level low is forecast to track right over you. That's usually a good spot to be with these early-season storms - close to the upper low.
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sullivanweather- I am watching the inverted trough situation towards the weekend. NAM and GFS both indicate frozen precipitation according to Bufkit data with entire thermal layer just about all below freezing. I still think Blue Mountain is going to see some type of accumulation during this later in the week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Morning, Blizz!

We were wondering where you were...lol
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Good morning all!!! 39degrees here with light to moderate rain. Already snowing in northern Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
It's cold and rainy, but since it's October, I'm stoked.
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Yeah, Wunderground is calling for a little accumulation as well. Now if we could just get two or three of these back to back to back in January/February we'd be set.
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low for today is occurring now at 41.8F with a dewpt of 38.5F. we just had a sprinkle about 15 mins ago

i notice now the NWS has a little accumulating snow on friday night

Blizz - what was that wave yesterday that dropped the light snow in Garrett County, MD yesterday and the sleet in DC suburbs?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Hi Blizz, if you are still up,as I mentioned on Sulli's blog, nothing too impressive on radar yet along the east coast. I guess that will change quite a bit when I wake up in 6-7 hours. Going to "hit the hay" in 10 min. or so.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
I noticed that 00z NAM temps are nearly identical to 18z GFS
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we will see i guess. its not often we get them anytime of the year.

Blizz - I haven't seen any estimates on amount of moisture. can you tell me if there has been any for the two storms
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Looks like the moutains of northcentral Pennsylvania could see a few inches of snow tomorrow night. This could be interesting.

I have noticed the models are trending towards some slight troughing across the northwestern U.S with a generaly zonal flow across the Pacific in mid-late October. I'm starting to think my first thoughts on this winter will be correct, when I thought the through axis would shift between the Plains and the Northeast, and a scattering of frequent snowstorms will impact areas from the Plains and Great Lakes to New England and the Mid Atlantic.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - i have never seen two nor'easters back to back. it would have to happen for me to believe it. it seems like the second storm never follows the first storm. i could be wrong.


Mt. Holly Discussion...
IT`S NOT OFTEN THAT WE GET BACK TO BACK NOR`EASTERS IN OCTOBER.
AS THE FIRST LOW REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
, RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN REGIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RUN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE MILD, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ON ROAD SURFACES. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SOGGY WET SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. THE LINE BETWEEN
NO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AND AN ADVISORY/WARNING EVENT WILL BE A
FINE ONE. JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN OUR AREA. MOVE THAT LINE 20 OR 30 MILES
SOUTHEAST, AND WE HAVE OUR FIRST WINTER STORM(EVEN THOUGH IT`S ONLY
OCTOBER). STAY TUNED. THAT FIRST STORM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST LAT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY, AS
YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Blizz - i have never seen two nor'easters back to back. it would have to happen for me to believe it. it seems like the second storm never follows the first storm. i could be wrong.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
BostonDan- Hey! Welcome back!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Hey Blizz! Glad to see the wintry madness starting up!
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weathergeek5- It is definitely complex. Two coastal lows then possibility an inverted trough.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Wow this seems like a mid January blog. Here in Delaware I better have a raincoat with me. An umbrella will break in that wind I think. I also am getting confused how many storms will we deal with over the next 4 days?

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IT`S NOT OFTEN THAT WE GET BACK TO BACK NOR`EASTERS IN OCTOBER.
AS THE FIRST LOW REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY, RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RUN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE MILD, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ON ROAD SURFACES. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SOGGY WET SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. THE LINE BETWEEN
NO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AND AN ADVISORY/WARNING EVENT WILL BE A
FINE ONE. JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN OUR AREA. MOVE THAT LINE 20 OR 30 MILES
SOUTHEAST, AND WE HAVE OUR FIRST WINTER STORM(EVEN THOUGH IT`S ONLY
OCTOBER). STAY TUNED. THAT FIRST STORM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST LAT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY, AS
YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.



Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
I can't wait for 00z!
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TheDawnAwakening- On occasion. Celtics would be my favorite basketball team though.

Snowlover2010- It will be interesting to see the 0z runs after the models ingest the new data.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
I was actually looking at other models and it seems that most 18z runs have shifted south(NAM, DGEX, ETA, GFS). Hopefully this trend continues.
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Blizzard do you watch the Celtics on CSN? Also another exhibtion tonight at 730pm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
TheDawnAwakening- There is not too much QPF up there anways.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
I don't think it will stay cold enough here in Central NH for snow towards the end of the weekend into early next week.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
By the way if I remeber right the 18z DGEX also showed a period of light snow here.
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Snowlover2010- Yep out there in western Huntingdon County you will at the minimum see snow on the mountaintops. As far as Lancaster I doubt it, but verbatum the 18z GFS would probably give a period of light snow flurries. Keep your hopes up!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Also does the 18z GFS show snow for me in Lancaster? Thats what it looks like to me. If so will we have a chance of accumulation here?
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Hey Bliz I am going up to James Creek on saturday. Think i will see much snow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weathergeek5- Yep quite a few including ice storms.


*18z GFS is interesting as it brings a norlun trough like feature across southern Pennsylvania with the entire column below freezing as far south as the turnpike in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. That is towards Saturday. I will look for it on future runs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Also discrepencies develop within their mid to upper level charts of the jet streams.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Hey Blizz for the 1992-1993 season were there a lot of nor'easters that year besides the superstorm? I remember the mountains of PA getting a huge amount of snow in the fall and winter. I was going to college in ohio and I was mad I could not be on the east coast that year.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
well one nice thing after 4 or 5 days of rain and wind we get into some warmer weather according to NWS. sunny and 60's
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
TheRasberryPatch- ASOS stations not reporting anything, but personal ground reports are saying there is a light rain/sleet mix around the area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
thanks Blizz. i wasn't sure if anything had changed.

is any precip around DC and Baltimore reaching the ground. i just see overcast for there.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
TheRasberryPatch- If you look at those graphics I posted in the blog above, it gives a pretty good representation of the development of this low. The energy transferal will occur tomorrow midday to form the coastal low and that will track along the eastern seaboard. The only model descrepancies are exact low track and QPF northern extent along with strength of cold air damming/high pressure.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
blizz-its definately trending colder each model run from 0z last night, which was the warmest I believe in the past two days? not 100% on that statement
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
i am watching the regional radar and the moisture is not condensed. is this the moisture arriving from the tennessee valley? or is that still there? and when will the coastal low form? according to NAM? or other model?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
onoweather- We will have to see if this is a trend with the 0z data.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
blizz- you beat me!lol
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
18Z NAM is looking nice so far 850 freezing line is right on top of me
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

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