October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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TheRasberryPatch- There may be a few areas in that above 1500ft seeing snow. I just heard a report out of Easton, Pennsylvania where heavy precipitation caused dynamic cooling and a changeover to a mix of rain/snow dropping the temperature a few degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
if you go to the WGAL radar there is a big blotch of orange to the west of Harrisburg
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
this will be interesting to see over the next 24hours or so.
Link

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
thanks blizz. i guess south of the delaware bay they don't expect the winds to be as strong
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
i see they only have a coastal flood watch out for the coast around OCMD and north. they expect winds 20-30 knots, but i didn't see high wind watch or warning. sounds like a minor nor'easter without the high winds. large waves though

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

NJZ025-026-152000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.HW.A.0001.091015T2200Z-091016T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0002.091016T0000Z-091016T1000Z/
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND
339 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
i see they only have a coastal flood watch out for the coast around OCMD and north. they expect winds 20-30 knots, but i didn't see high wind watch or warning. sounds like a minor nor'easter without the high winds. large waves though
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
TheRasberryPatch- Rain currently, definitely down in Deep Creek. But I think some of the ridges around 2800ft are probably getting some snow in the Laurel Highlands.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Blizz how are the laurel highlands and deep creek for weather? i realize they don't get the damming of cold air, at least i didn't think they did
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
TheRasberryPatch- That is definitely possible. Easterly flow sticks around for a while with a marine layer.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
wow Blizz. precip for that long of a period? and according to NWS it may last into Monday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Beginning to stick and coat the ground in the State College valley locations. I would guess Mt. Nittany has some accumulation now probably around 1inch.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
It's snowing at home. You can't quite tell in the still view, but soon I'm sure. :-)
As you can see I figured out how to get the still image so once it's approved by WU it will be up in the webcam area. Here it is.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
What do you guys think of Joe Bastardi,he's predicting the snowiest winter in 5 yrs.
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Isn't this the same setup we had last october?
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
TheRasberryPatch- Not quite sure. According to guidance it looks like precipitation is pretty much steady through Saturday night. A few breaks are definitely going to occur, but it looks pretty steady especially over our area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
What is the time frame for the second event on Saturday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
12z GFS still showing nice norlun trough event towards Saturday with H85 0C thermal south of Pennsylvania turnpike.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
onoweather- NWS forecast + cold air damming = failure, lol. They are just terrible at cold air damming forecasts it seems. Temperature has been falling here too. It may warm slightly with some warm air advection aloft, not sure about that though. I think upper 30s are likely for a good portion of the day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
blizz- how far are temps supposed to fall today? NWS says 43 for a high but the temp has been falling ever since i woke up.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
You're welcome.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Big storms this end of week into weekend period.

Charles many areas in MI saw 1-2 feet of snow. I mean the East Coast Blizzard of 1978 saw close to 35-45" of snow, so we have a lot more moisture available for snowstorms to take advantage of given the ocean so that is a plus for us versus those Great Lakes Blizzard, but I believe Cleveland, OH or parts of the Midwest have the lowest land pressure recorded outside of tropical cyclones for the United States.
Those are crazy snow amounts! Thanks for the link I am reading now =)
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206. Finky
Blizz,

You got it. I live just a few miles north of Hanover!
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TheRasberryPatch- Yea the radar doesn't distinguish between rain/snow. We just knew it was all snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Link

Here is a good link to follow with that Superbomb. The pressure dropped 40mb in 24 hours almost Superstorm 93 like.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Big storms this end of week into weekend period.

Charles many areas in MI saw 1-2 feet of snow. I mean the East Coast Blizzard of 1978 saw close to 35-45" of snow, so we have a lot more moisture available for snowstorms to take advantage of given the ocean so that is a plus for us versus those Great Lakes Blizzard, but I believe Cleveland, OH or parts of the Midwest have the lowest land pressure recorded outside of tropical cyclones for the United States.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Blizz - i thought WGAL showed snow pretty well last year? or was it just that the temps were cold enough we knew it was snow? i am there and they are showing some oranges in Upper Dauphin
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Finky- Thanks, lol! Welcome back. Your down by York right? I am trying to remember everyone's location from last winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
TheRasberryPatch- Radars are never to adapt at showing snow, so I usually use ground reports. If you try accuweather's radar it is showing its guess at where snow is falling, but it is not too accurate. Snowing is falling in State College through much of Schuykill County so that is about the southward extent.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
199. Finky
Everybody can thank me for the snow! I was in wyominng last week on a hunting trip and they ask me to bring the snow back to PA. We were up in the Big Horn Mountains and there was anywhere from 10-15 Inches on the ground with more snow on the way. Lets hope the southern part of PA gets a little of the white stuff.
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i am not sure where you are Charles, but my inlaws live just north of South Bend in Michigan and they got a lot of snow last winter. they get mostly lake effect.

Blizz - any of the radars showing snow or are they not tuned to that just yet? temps continue to fall since yesterday evening. i am at 39.8F with a dewpt of 39.5F. so far 0.07" of rain. barometer is 29.98" or 1015.1 and falling. winds are calm to light out of the East
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Wilkes-Barre / Scranton Intl Airport
Lat: 41.33 Lon: -75.73 Elev: 930
Last Update on Oct 15, 10:54 am EDT

Light Snow Fog/Mist

36 °F
(2 °C) Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.04" (1017.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 32 °F (0 °C)
Visibility: 3.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
TDA, Haven't done a whole lot of research there, but have heard some ideas getting tossed about from a few knowledgeable friends about us perhaps having a winter similar to 77-78. I do know that was a big one though from what they have told me. 30" is big for sure. WOW 950mb?! that is deep!
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Ob too

State College
Lat: 40.86 Lon: -77.83 Elev: 1240
Last Update on Oct 15, 11:00 am EDT

Unknown Precip

34 °F
(1 °C)
Humidity: 99 %
Wind Speed: NE 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.96"
Dewpoint: 34 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 28 °F (-2 °C)
Visibility: 3.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
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State College now mixing with snow according to webcams.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Yes Sully, you are correct. 5$ to Sully. Just kidding I don't have 5$ to lend at this time.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Charles, have you done any research into the Great Lakes Blizzard of 1978, or also known as the Cleveland Superbomb? It only dropped 30" as its highest total in MI, so it wouldn't rival necessarily the Giants of the East Coast, but in terms of pressure it breaks the Superstorm of 93 and the Blizzard of February 1978 with a bottoming out of pressure at 950mb in Ontario. I couldn't have imagined being just east of that low.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
84hrs minus 12Z Sunday = 00Z Thursday...

hmm...okay, it is the 00Z...haha
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Because 84 hours out it is showing 12z Monday, not 00z Tuesday. I don't think all of the images on the Raleighwx website has updated, normally it's slower than the NCEP images.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Hey TDA! It's looking that way. I may not be the biggest fan of winter but it seems to be the biggest fan of me.. 04-05 was nice in a number of areas. The last 2 here in MI we had over 100 inches..2 history making seasons really. I am a sucker for a good snowstorm though
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Wow I can't believe that snowpack out west like that so early in the season. 00z NAM had a positive tilted 500mb chart jet stream.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
I think that is the 12z. The model initiation says 12z.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Oh correction the map I posted was 2 days ago oops!

Nice Blizz, I know someone who is gonna wake up unhappy in MN this morning.. hehehe Can't wait to tease her about the snow again.. 3rd time this Fall already XD
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Hahahaha...


Blizzard was that NAM run the 00z run?

Hey Charles, I guess the old pals are aligning themselves once again for a great winter, not like the last two, but more like 2004-2005 because of the storm tracks.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3897
Nice. 12-18" of snow....lol

Isn't that the 00Z model run too?

The latest one is even beefier! haha
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Hahahaha...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
AS OF YESTERDAY....

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I guess the big question is...Is this weekend just a preview for what lies ahead in the coming month,well,I can only speak for myself,but it sure gets my interest for the coming months.
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Sure am Blizz. It starting early this year for the northern states! Especially west of me. It's going to be fun for sure. Just hoping it doesn't last too far into Spring LOL

I've been up all night, woke up at 8PM yesterday so.. I have to readjust my schedule now hahaha
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sullivanweather- Hahaha, NAM has always been leading in QPF totals through this forecast event.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Hello again to you too, Chuck! LOL
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LMAO!!!

The 12Z NAM is absurd!!

I tell you one thing, if that model verifies there won't be a tree left standing in the Poconos!
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