The Northeast Weather Blog...

October Nor'easter???

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.

Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)

Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.

Categories: Weekly Forecast

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 351 - 401

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index

351. PalmyraPunishment 5:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Heads up to anybody headed to Happy Valley for Homecoming against Minnesota. Due to the snow and forecasted significant snow tonight and into tomorrow, the grass lots at Beaver Stadium are closed. RV Parking is being redirected, tailgating is closed even in paved lots. Those attending the game are urged to carpool or walk if possible. The University is working with several local businesses to free up parking lots to allow parking and shuttle services for the game. The Stadium is also going to be snow covered. Make sure to dress warm with a waterproof outer layer and shoes with traction. Snowball fights, FTW! Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

352. PalmyraPunishment 5:30 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
by the way, here in Carlisle the temp is 40 and we are experiencing a light mist. Not as cold as I thought it would be, today. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

353. TheRasberryPatch 5:37 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
because of snow PU isn't allowing tailgating on their lots? what is that all about? i have never heard of such a thing. maybe i can see the grass lots getting muddy and people getting stuck, but in paved lots? why don't they have better parking? i guess they are more concerned with how many people they pack into the place using bleachers from my elementary football field. hahaha what a joke? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

354. Zachary Labe 5:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
From some of the reports I have heard, parts of 22/322 north of Lewistown were impassable due to the widespread destruction of trees. Also the State College ASOS station reported thunder in the vicinity as an observation this morning, and it appears the supposed thunder were the sounds of transformers blowing out. It is a mess up there. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

355. TheRasberryPatch 5:52 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
wow, Blizz. that is bad news. you said if it snows it would be destructive. something you don't consider usually with snow Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

356. Zachary Labe 5:54 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Centre County is now under a state of emergency and tens of thousands of people are without power. Emergency shelters are being opened up. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

357. PalmyraPunishment 5:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
wow... this is unbelievable. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

358. Zachary Labe 6:00 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
9inches of snow fell on Mt. Nittany. Massive tree damage. If they get a possible 2-4inches from the next wave, o my. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

359. TheDawnAwakening 6:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Cape Cod has gotten some very heavy snowstorms, the noreaster of March 1960 brought Nantucket 31" of snow and a pressure of 28.30"! I had no idea Nantucket, MA got that much and that low of a pressure. Perhaps the low was actually a little deeper than that given it's possible location for Nantucket, MA to even get that much snow. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

360. PalmyraPunishment 6:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
you know if this happened to us... we'd feel like we deserved it for the way we moaned and groaned the last 2 years. lol. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

361. originalLT 6:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Blizz, how far are you from this "Bull's Eye" of heavy wet snow? Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

362. Zachary Labe 6:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
originalLT- Lewistown is the start of the heavier snow and that is about 60mi to my northwest. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

363. TheRasberryPatch 6:24 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
9" of snow with leaves still on the trees? that is a lot of snow for October or for any other time of year. that is a major snowstorm. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

364. Snowlover2010 7:21 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Hey Bliz think I will see any snow in Lancaster? Seems the NAM and ECM show it, but NWS is not predicting it. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

365. Zachary Labe 7:26 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Snowlover2010- I doubt it. Best chance will be along I-81 and to the west and along or north of Pennsylvania turnpike. From what I gather from the NWS discussion they too are quite confused like myself in a solid forecast. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

366. Snowlover2010 7:34 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
I just saw Eric Horst from Millersville is actually saying I could se a little bit of snow. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

367. Zachary Labe 7:37 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
My generalization forecast still holds issued on the 13th. Seems to have worked well so far... Well hopefully I do not bite my tonuge, but I think there is a legitimate chance for many central Pennsylvanians to see their first snowflakes of the year by the end of this week. And higher elevations from Blue Mountain north through State College up through White Deer Mountains have a chance at accumulating snow. GFS is impressive in terms of cold air and pumps a north-northeast wind from the cold perfect high placement to the north into the northern fringes of this system. QPF while is not as much in some areas is enough for some possible accumulations. With the deep negatively tilted trough and upper level low placement it does look like a classic October snowfall especially for central Pennsylvania through southeast New York. State College usually does well in these situations, look back at October 2002 Halloween up there. Also notice the date, 2002. Anyways I am definitely not getting carried away, but I at times like to be a bit gutsy in my forecasts as I was slightly criticized in not taking chances last winter, hahaha. Two waves will impact the region and more information on setup can be found in blog above, only chances are that the wave is a bit flatter and may track farther south. Notice I choose my words very carefully, hahaha, may/possible/perhaps/could/chance. Alot of factors for early season snowstorms with very, very little room for error and I will be around for analysis around 8pm this evening. As expected I will update on any changes. But for those with locations above any snow accumulating this time of year can be destructive. Even if nothing occurs take this once again as a fun learning opportunity as forecasting knowledge always can be gained despite any experience from the past. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

368. Zachary Labe 8:10 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
NWS Dauphin County zone forecast... Tonight Rain and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Rain and snow. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Night Snow and rain. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Sunday Cloudy. Rain showers likely...mainly in the morning. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

369. Snowlover2010 8:21 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Lancaster Forecast: Tonight: Rain and snow. Low around 36. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Rain and snow. High near 41. North wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday Night: Rain and snow. Low around 36. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Think this is possible Bliz? Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

370. SilverShipsofAndilar 8:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Is that forecast for Dauphin County higher elevations or is it Dauphin County generally? Because Cumberland County wants some of that 0-2 inches of snow to fall here as well. Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

371. Zachary Labe 8:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Late Afternoon: Occasional rain. High near 41. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tonight: Rain and snow. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Rain and snow. High near 38. North wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night: Snow. Low around 36. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. My NWS valley forecast... It is possible, I am just not ready to jump on the train yet. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

372. Snowlover2010 8:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Weather Channel now calling for mix Sunday. What is the earlest we have ever had snow? I feel like this would make it. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

373. TheRasberryPatch 8:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
temp has increased to 41.1F rain for the storm 1.37" barometer looks like a roller coaster. 29.95" or 1014.2mb i guess it is a wait and see what occurs. no matter at least the pavement is warm enough for no accumulation. no ice. thats good what is the forecast for PU game tomorrow? what time are they playing? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

374. TheRasberryPatch 8:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Blizz - you may have mentioned but when is the record for earliest snowfall for Harrisburg? also any other records set from this storm setup or should i say this outbreak? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

375. synthman19872003 8:52 PM GMT on October 16, 2009
Whoa Blizz, I see your blog has been VERY busy over the past couple of days LOL! I'm not surprised though, there's lots to talk about up there in your part of the country! Still seems odd talking about snowfall this early in the season! Can't wait till I can "join the club" so to speak ;) Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045

376. Zachary Labe 12:42 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Earliest Harrisburg measureable snow is the 16th of October. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

377. Stanb999 12:49 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
Good evening Sir. Here is the conditions on this mountain top. Today High 39F Light drizzle. Currently 34F snow!!!! :-) Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

378. TheRasberryPatch 12:57 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
temp has been steady since 4pm at 41F barometer is rising at 30.00" or 1016.0mb rain for the storm 1.50" are the models still expecting a s/w coming out of the lakes and then a low forming off the coast? i have been watching webcams at OCMD and really haven't seen any flooding from the surf. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

379. Zachary Labe 1:19 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
Everything is set. Moisture increasing, s/w beginning to interact with a forming offshore low. Key is surface temperatures/dewpoints. Temperatures aloft are already below 0C H85 as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike statewide. If a strong deformation band forms in central Pennsylvania like some guidance suggests, watch out! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

380. originalLT 1:20 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
Just checking in, was mostly cloudy here all day, a little brightening in the sky around late morning but that didn't last. High was 46.2F low 35.9F, baro now is 1017mb. Currently42.3F. We've had only about 0.53" of rain(with a few snow flakes) since this storm began, hardly anything today during the daylight hours. Wind mostly out of the NE, ocassionally drifting NW, at 5-10mph. Now the winds are calm. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

381. originalLT 1:26 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
Blizz, where exactly is the off shore low forming, off NC. ? Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

382. weathergeek5 1:43 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
WOW I just cant believe all this is happening with the weather. I wish you all luck in state college with all the problems with the snow. Temps are holding steady around 43 now. I hear the rain is supposed to start later tomorrow again. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

383. MissNadia 1:50 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
Evening #381 This is 20 miles SE of Cape Fear N.C. Frying Pan Tower NDBC - Station 41013 Observations Station 41013 October 16, 2009 8:50 pm EDT Location: 33.436N 77.743W Wind Direction: NNE (20°) Wind Speed: 19.4 knots Wind Gust: 23.3 knots Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec Mean Wave Direction: NE (36°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in (1007.3 mb) Pressure Tendency: +0.04 in (+1.3 mb) Air Temperature: 65.5°F (18.6°C) Dew Point: 60.3°F (15.7°C) Water Temperature: 77.7°F (25.4°C) Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2698

384. Zachary Labe 2:27 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
I am still not on the NWS train snow wagon. RUC indicates warming H85s again towards dawn and surface temperatures out there tonight are warm even in the north country. With thick clouds, temperatures will likely not change to much if we continue to only see light precipitation. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

385. onoweather 4:03 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
hey blizz- I had three flakes that I saw mix in when I left for school and that quick it was over been rain ever since, I don't think were going to see much snow the temps really warmed up today. I thought the CAD would have kept them in the 30's. Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

386. TheRasberryPatch 11:10 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
the temp has dropped one degree since midnight to 39F the barometer has been climbing or holding steady since yesterday @ 30.00" or 1015.8mb rain for the storm is 1.86" i wonder how much more rain we will see? will it go over the 3" mark Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

387. TheRasberryPatch 11:23 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
take a look at these links and check out the inlet at OCMD and the beach Link if anyone knows the inlet the rocks are completely covered and the water is really moving and the inlet waters look like they are ready to wash over the rock wall into assateague surf Link Link Link Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

388. weathergeek5 11:26 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
It is raining really hard where I am. I am concerned about flooding if it is supposed to rain into tomorrow. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

389. Mason803 1:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
good morning. nws seems to think another inch of rain is possible tonight into tomorrow alone with a deformation setting up. i'm up to 2.12" for the event. if only it were january, Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

390. originalLT 2:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
Morning all, just looking at the radar, pretty good batch of precip. in western and central N.J. and eastern PA., but it appears to be moving NNE which means it may miss me in Stamford CT. 45F now baro. 1018mb NE wind 0-5mph. sun trying to peak thru the clouds. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

391. TheRasberryPatch 2:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
i wonder what it is like at PU? temp is steady at 39.8F barometer is slowly rising rain for the storms is 2.08" Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

392. Snowlover2010 2:09 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
I just watched the NAM run and it seems even colder and stronger. I really think I will see a little mixing tomorrow. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

393. jthal57 2:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
38.7 here, mod. rain; reports of snow mixing in around the Lehigh Valley, not here yet.

394. lawntonlookers 2:38 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
Good morning Blizz. I was reading about the damage in Happy Valley from the snow and one of the comments in the Centre county paper was that the storm actually caught some of the forecasters in State College off guard. "The Centre Region appeared hardest hit. The National Weather Service reported 3.2 inches of snowfall in Philipsburg by 7 a.m. Friday morning. In State College the total at that time was 4.7 inches. In Park Forest it was 6 inches and, at the top of Mount Nittany, 8 inches of accumulation was recorded. Bill Syrett, manager of the Joel N. Myers Weather Center at Penn State, said it was hard to believe what had happened. “All of us old forecasters were like: ‘No way, (that) doesn’t happen here,’ ” he said Friday around noon. “And while we’re talking, it has snowed 27 hours straight ... and that’s unheard of in October.” Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/story/1572060.html#ixzz0UChGpdNC See what it looks likd at game time at 3PM Cold and raw again today. The cold and damp weather seems to go right through me. Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

395. Zachary Labe 2:50 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
39.8degrees with moderate rain here. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

396. TheRasberryPatch 3:44 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
42.1F here with very little rain or drizzle Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5716

397. weathergeek5 3:58 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
Temp is now to 44. a break in the rain for right now. I have to catch the bus to work so I hope this break in the rain lasts for a bit. Forgot my phone at work I hope. If it is not there then I left it on the bus yesterday and I will have to get it deactivated. It was a cheap phone so so it is no biggie if it is gone. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

398. Mason803 4:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
41f here. rain has been steady all morn. check this Link of accumulated precip. western adams has seen the heaviest rain. i'm approaching 2.5" of rain and that band of precip to the south will add to that total. Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

399. Zachary Labe 4:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
2.04inches of rain here as a storm total. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

400. originalLT 4:24 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
Pretty good storm total Blizz , I got only 0.53" so far. Blizz, on the vis. sat. it looks like there is a spin to the clouds over central Va. is that the distubence that will translate into the second noreaster they are taking about? So far no rain by me today. Radar is not that impressive now, at least along the coast. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

401. wxgeek723 4:28 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
401st! Lol. You must be enjoying the high activity on your blog Bliz. A total of 1.02 inches fell from Thursday to midday yesterday. I'm actually going down to Cape May today to visit relatives, so it should be interesting to see how it is there. I have no intention of going near the water, lol. At least the drive there should be tranquil. Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2366

Viewing: 351 - 401

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Tropical Blogs

Tropical Weather Stickers®

Contact This Author

Local Weather

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

59 °F

Mostly Cloudy

Detailed Conditions & Forecast

Recent Photos

Blizzard92's Wunder Photos

Previous Entries for 2013

Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperature:	73.1 °F
Dew Point:	66.2 °F
Humidity:	79%
Wind:	Calm
Wind Gust:	0.0 mph
Updated: 9:34 PM EDT on June 16, 2013 Station History