October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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Blizz - you were like that all last winter. guidance said YES and you just didn't have that feeling. It is only October, but yet again State College and points very nearby are getting snow. Our temps are awfully close. Also, the sun is still high in the sky if #2 hits early.

rain is still coming down lightly, but enough to get you wet if you stood outside for a couple of minutes, but it really isn't showing up on radar.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
Quoting Blizzard92:
charlesimages- Winter is not here, only 36 or 37 with rain.
That's too bad really.. Unless you'd rather look at it as fortunate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TDW - in the history of Cape Cod when have they ever gotten several feet of snow? now play it out with these storms in Jan or Feb. do you really think they would set up like that? i think sometimes you have to be a realist and recognize that the storms would never set up like that unless it has happened before. granted it can happen anytime, but if it has happened in the past or once before WELL
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
TheRasberryPatch- Eh, I am in a pickle this morning, haha. I can't make up my mind on a forecast for the Saturday #2 coastal low. My instinct says it will not, but the model/guidance proves otherwise.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
I couldn't have imagine how much snow Cape Cod, MA could have received between these two lows had the storm occurred in late January, early February. They could have received at least several feet of snow.
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from that view where i have to tilt my head it appears that the pavement isn't getting covered.

will the snow make it down to KMDT?

temp here 37.5F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
charlesimages- Winter is not here, only 36 or 37 with rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
Hey Blizz! Enjoying winter? XD
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TheRasberryPatch- Ha and you were laughing at me last weekend pulling out my snowblower from my shed to my garage. State College is not that far away. Areas along 322 near Lewistown are also reporting significant accumulations.

State College...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
yes originalLT. it is Maryland and I believe the palm trees don't survive the winter. I think they are replaced every spring. almost every resort or outside restaurant has them. i am guessing they must not cost much. that is a great view from the Castle
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
blizz- Do you have a guesstimate as to how much more they are going to get?
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Thanks for the video links Rasberry, I particularly like the PALM TREES there in the Castle in the Sand resort. Is that in Maryland? I wonder how they survive there?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
7" ? is that all snow? wow. for this time of the year that is ridiculous. glad we aren't getting that much snow. i am not prepared. my snowblower is in the shed. i had it worked on at the end of last season, but i haven't looked at it since. not sure if it has oil and/or gas. hahaha. i guess i can always shovel
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
NEwxguy- Out of season snows usually cause a lot of problems.

onoweather- Yep there is a second coastal low.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
blizz- is there still a good chance for snow saturday evening/night in state college?
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snow has ended here,Blizz with trees fully leafed or leaved? snow accumulations like that are disastrous,I still remember our May snowstorm way back,brought down trees branches and major power outages.
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Good morning all!!! 37.0degrees here with light rain this morning. State College has picked up 7inches with major damage being reported. The additional snowfall tonight and Saturday may cause that area to have even more major issues. 7inches of heavy rain snow (3:1 ratios) combined with fully leafed trees is not good. We all remember what happened to Buffalo.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
on a couple of side notes:

La Guardia set a low temp record overnight by 3F. not sure about any other records. i was looking at weather for Middletown, NY and the record showed. I also saw Richmond, Va set a new record low max for 10/15 by 2F

Also, looking at the webcam along the beach at 15th St in Ocean City, MD the ocean is getting closer to the boardwalk. I am also seeing a tidal pool next to the boardwalk, so I would assume at high tide sometime after 6am that is where the waves were ending
Link if you go to this link there is live video of the surf. go to Clarion hotel cam. nice video

Linkthis one is from The Castle in the Sand and is a great view - very wide lens
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
well, I really didn't think I would get into the snow area here in eastern mass,but sure enough, around 6 am this morning it changed over to light snow and is continuing lightly as the morning progresses.
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Wow this Nor'easter has deepened to 986mb amazing, models only had it at 992mb at the lowest. I have head off to class, be back at around 10am.
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temps have pretty much remained steady. its fallen down to 36.5F a change of 0.8F over the last 12 hours

rain for the storm so far is 1.03"
barometer 1012.3mb and slowly rising
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
Been trying to get thru to your site, was having problems, but now seems to be working. 36.8F now baro 1013mb wind N 5mph. light mist. As noted when I was on Sulli's blog, been at about 36F for over 8 hours, had some snow mixing in with the rain about 7PM when some heavier cells were comig thru.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
Ain't it great?

I love it because it's not overly technical but in the same breath explains the technicalities. Very good presentation.
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Quoting Snowlover2010:
do the 1000mb-500mb have that much of an effect. i thought that 850mb was what mattered.



Very good read here explaining snow forecasting broken down into 50 slides that are easily understandable.

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Hey Bliz accuweather peps saying that temps from NAM do not matter, but rather the temps from the ECM matter. Any thoughts?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
301. Snowlover2010
2:34 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
do the 1000mb-500mb have that much of an effect. i thought that 850mb was what mattered.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
300. Zachary Labe
2:33 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
That NAM really shows a slow moving storm, would be extremely interesting if it occurs. I just have this nagging voice at the back of head saying watchout for this sliding south of everyone. For now though that is only a slight possibility. On a side note, 300 comments, you can tell it is a winter storm. Welcome back all and thanks for making for some great converstations. Here's to another great winter! I am off for the night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
299. Snowlover2010
2:30 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Think that I could get snow down here? And that possibly the NAM is only starting a trend.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
298. Zachary Labe
2:29 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Right now my major concern is for a lack of QPF on the northern fringes. A general trend has been to progress the Saturday coastal storm precipitation shield to the south and east. Right now I am more concerned about lack of QPF than lack of cold air for snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
297. Snowlover2010
2:20 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
NAM LOOKS GREAT AT 42. Looks like snow for Lancaster!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
296. Zachary Labe
2:19 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Verbatum 0z NAM shows accumulating snow along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike in central Pennsylvania including the Lower Susquehanna Valley. If this pans out this would be a rare October snow accumulation in Harrisburg. Again this is all verbatum the 0z NAM.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
295. Snowlover2010
2:14 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Kinda getting worried bout the NAM. Anything thoughts Bliz?
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294. Snowlover2010
1:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
NAM already looks dramatically cooler. Interesting.
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293. pittsburghnurse
1:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
No flakes here. At least not yet. I noticed the velocity of the drizzle is slowing as it moves through the air. The local weather reports have really downplayed any kind of a snow event here in Pittsburgh for any of this current forecast period. Does this low forming off the Great Lakes mean a third nor'easter is in the making? I may see my first blizzard this winter.
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292. Snowlover2010
1:40 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
when does the nam come out?
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291. TheRasberryPatch
1:21 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
ok.

temp still steady with light drizzle.
barometer is steady.
winds are light
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
290. Zachary Labe
1:16 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Any precipitation tomorrow will be from the coastal low, but generally it is taking a lot of the energy away from the Tennessee Valley low causing the precipitation to be east of our region. It is a very complex situation in terms of energy placement with all of the embedded shortwaves. The second coastal low will cause the inverted trough orientated precipitation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
289. TheRasberryPatch
1:13 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
so the first low to form off the coast will have no affect on us other than what you mentioned? we won't get any rain from this first storm off the coast?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
288. Zachary Labe
1:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Snowlover2010- Track of 850 low and surface low for second system. Thermal layer and QPF are also important. 0z NAM should tell whether or not there will be any radical swings in the forecast or not.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
287. Snowlover2010
1:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
By the way it is kind of off topic but it looks like towards the end of the month we might fall into another cold shot with another big nor' easter.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
286. Snowlover2010
1:08 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
What specifically are you going to be looking at in the models tonight and during what time period?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
285. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Snowlover2010- All I can say is the higher threats are the farther north and west one goes. Too soon to specify anything really other than pointing to the possibility. Tomorrow morning though will makes things a bit more clear.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
284. Snowlover2010
12:55 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
So is it possible for Lancaster to see accumulations or any snow at all? Or will it all be up like in Harrisburg?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
283. Zachary Labe
12:40 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Hahaha somehow I thought that would stir everyone up. A coastal low is developing tonight near Hatteras and will move northeast tonight through tomorrow. Most of the heavy precipitation is over tonight except for scattered activity. Tomorrow a second low will form off the coast in respone to a s/w over the Great Lakes moving east. The first low as it pulls northeast will allow the flow to turn more northerly drawing down the cold air from the high pressure resulting in cold air advection during Friday. The H85 0C line will slowly fall southeast throughout the day. Meanwhile precipitation will set up in a inverted trough formation which tends to favor orographically enhanced precipitation. This will occur late Friday night through Saturday night and east central Pennsylvania through eastern Pennsylvania looks favored for the most QPF. Depending on cold air available accumulating snow may occur in some other areas outside of what occurred today. A lot is still in question with this second low definitely as far as track. Stay tuned!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
282. Snowlover2010
12:25 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Is it possible the NWS already saw some 00z runs and that is why they said this?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
281. TheRasberryPatch
12:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
I am a little confused myself. which sfc low is this? am i correct that a low will be forming along the coast this evening? and a second low will follow on friday evening? or is my timing off?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
280. Stanb999
12:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Check out this from BMG...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX ACRS THE AREA AS UPR TROF DEEPENS. PCPN SHUD BE
LIGHT ON FRIDAY...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF ADDNL SNOW ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM/GFS DEPICT POTNL FOR HEAVY SNOW SAT INTO SAT
NGT AS SFC LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLC CST...WITH XCLNT FORCING
SIGS OBVSERVED IN THE FGEN/DEF/QVEC FIELDS ACRS THE ERN/SRN SXNS
OF THE BGM CWA (ALMOST TEXTBOOK!).
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
279. weathergeek5
12:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Here in Delaware it is 42 degrees and my heat is on now. it was 59 in the house when I got home. it was a windy RAW day.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
278. Snowlover2010
12:19 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
Huh? What does this mean? Actual accumulating snow for us? When? What?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
277. Zachary Labe
12:13 AM GMT on October 16, 2009
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
RAISING MORE WINTER WEATHER FLAGS WITH THE THREAT OF MORE EARLY
SEASON SNOWS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SE AS
THE LWR SUSQ VLY
DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082

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