October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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Good evening Sir.
Here is the conditions on this mountain top.

Today
High 39F
Light drizzle.



Currently
34F snow!!!! :-)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
TheRasberryPatch- Earliest Harrisburg measureable snow is the 16th of October.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Whoa Blizz, I see your blog has been VERY busy over the past couple of days LOL! I'm not surprised though, there's lots to talk about up there in your part of the country! Still seems odd talking about snowfall this early in the season! Can't wait till I can "join the club" so to speak ;)
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Blizz - you may have mentioned but when is the record for earliest snowfall for Harrisburg? also any other records set from this storm setup or should i say this outbreak?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
temp has increased to 41.1F
rain for the storm 1.37"
barometer looks like a roller coaster. 29.95" or 1014.2mb

i guess it is a wait and see what occurs. no matter at least the pavement is warm enough for no accumulation. no ice. thats good

what is the forecast for PU game tomorrow? what time are they playing?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
Weather Channel now calling for mix Sunday. What is the earlest we have ever had snow? I feel like this would make it.
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Late Afternoon: Occasional rain. High near 41. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain and snow. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday: Rain and snow. High near 38. North wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: Snow. Low around 36. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

My NWS valley forecast... It is possible, I am just not ready to jump on the train yet.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Is that forecast for Dauphin County higher elevations or is it Dauphin County generally? Because Cumberland County wants some of that 0-2 inches of snow to fall here as well.
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Lancaster Forecast:
Tonight: Rain and snow. Low around 36. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday: Rain and snow. High near 41. North wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow. Low around 36. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Think this is possible Bliz?
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NWS Dauphin County zone forecast...

Tonight
Rain and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Saturday
Rain and snow. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Saturday Night
Snow and rain. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday
Cloudy. Rain showers likely...mainly in the morning. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
My generalization forecast still holds issued on the 13th. Seems to have worked well so far...

Well hopefully I do not bite my tonuge, but I think there is a legitimate chance for many central Pennsylvanians to see their first snowflakes of the year by the end of this week. And higher elevations from Blue Mountain north through State College up through White Deer Mountains have a chance at accumulating snow. GFS is impressive in terms of cold air and pumps a north-northeast wind from the cold perfect high placement to the north into the northern fringes of this system. QPF while is not as much in some areas is enough for some possible accumulations. With the deep negatively tilted trough and upper level low placement it does look like a classic October snowfall especially for central Pennsylvania through southeast New York. State College usually does well in these situations, look back at October 2002 Halloween up there. Also notice the date, 2002. Anyways I am definitely not getting carried away, but I at times like to be a bit gutsy in my forecasts as I was slightly criticized in not taking chances last winter, hahaha. Two waves will impact the region and more information on setup can be found in blog above, only chances are that the wave is a bit flatter and may track farther south. Notice I choose my words very carefully, hahaha, may/possible/perhaps/could/chance. Alot of factors for early season snowstorms with very, very little room for error and I will be around for analysis around 8pm this evening. As expected I will update on any changes. But for those with locations above any snow accumulating this time of year can be destructive. Even if nothing occurs take this once again as a fun learning opportunity as forecasting knowledge always can be gained despite any experience from the past.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
I just saw Eric Horst from Millersville is actually saying I could se a little bit of snow.
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Snowlover2010- I doubt it. Best chance will be along I-81 and to the west and along or north of Pennsylvania turnpike. From what I gather from the NWS discussion they too are quite confused like myself in a solid forecast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Hey Bliz think I will see any snow in Lancaster? Seems the NAM and ECM show it, but NWS is not predicting it.
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9" of snow with leaves still on the trees? that is a lot of snow for October or for any other time of year. that is a major snowstorm.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
originalLT- Lewistown is the start of the heavier snow and that is about 60mi to my northwest.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Blizz, how far are you from this "Bull's Eye" of heavy wet snow?
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you know if this happened to us... we'd feel like we deserved it for the way we moaned and groaned the last 2 years. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Cape Cod has gotten some very heavy snowstorms, the noreaster of March 1960 brought Nantucket 31" of snow and a pressure of 28.30"!


I had no idea Nantucket, MA got that much and that low of a pressure. Perhaps the low was actually a little deeper than that given it's possible location for Nantucket, MA to even get that much snow.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
9inches of snow fell on Mt. Nittany. Massive tree damage. If they get a possible 2-4inches from the next wave, o my.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
wow... this is unbelievable.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
TheRasberryPatch- Centre County is now under a state of emergency and tens of thousands of people are without power. Emergency shelters are being opened up.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
wow, Blizz. that is bad news. you said if it snows it would be destructive. something you don't consider usually with snow
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
From some of the reports I have heard, parts of 22/322 north of Lewistown were impassable due to the widespread destruction of trees. Also the State College ASOS station reported thunder in the vicinity as an observation this morning, and it appears the supposed thunder were the sounds of transformers blowing out. It is a mess up there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
because of snow PU isn't allowing tailgating on their lots? what is that all about? i have never heard of such a thing. maybe i can see the grass lots getting muddy and people getting stuck, but in paved lots? why don't they have better parking? i guess they are more concerned with how many people they pack into the place using bleachers from my elementary football field. hahaha what a joke?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
by the way, here in Carlisle the temp is 40 and we are experiencing a light mist. Not as cold as I thought it would be, today.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Heads up to anybody headed to Happy Valley for Homecoming against Minnesota.

Due to the snow and forecasted significant snow tonight and into tomorrow, the grass lots at Beaver Stadium are closed. RV Parking is being redirected, tailgating is closed even in paved lots. Those attending the game are urged to carpool or walk if possible. The University is working with several local businesses to free up parking lots to allow parking and shuttle services for the game.

The Stadium is also going to be snow covered. Make sure to dress warm with a waterproof outer layer and shoes with traction.

Snowball fights, FTW!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Blizz - will the rest of the day be this heavy drizzle? i want to get out and spend an hour outside working on my log rack.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
Afternoon blizzard...

Here in nepa the sun is trying to poke out. We had 2" on the grass and trees and a little on the walkway.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
This first storm was pretty much a non-event for where I"m at about 10 miles west of boston,other than the little light snow this morning.Will have to see what the second storm brings.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15568
TheRasberryPatch- That is true. A lot of times with these norlun trough situations, there are a lot of surprises thrown with them so that is what is really keeping my interest.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Blizz - you were question your confidence in the models and whether the dewpt will get low enough. i thought a s/w is moving out of the lakes. wouldn't that help reinforce the colder air? btw - i don't believe you. i need pictures. hahaha. still light rain or heavy drizzle here. kind of lightening up a bit

Mason - i recall those storms. We got the big snow on a Sunday into Monday and then the smaller storm on Friday. Then like 10 days later the temps got up to 60F and we got over 2" of rain.

No worries TDA.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
Moderate sleet now. Actually a fine layer of sleet that hasn't melted off my back deck. I got a picture in case you guys didn't believe me, hahaha. Am I not pathetic or what, lol?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Well I thought I was crazy, but someone else reported it too along Blue Mountain. We currently have a light sleet/mainly rain/brief snow flake mix! First flakes of year in October second year in a row!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
I remember the best 1, 2 punch for Cape Cod was in 2005 when we had the Blizzard of 2005, followed by a clipper with another 4-8" of snow. Got to go to class, be back in two hours or so.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
TheDawnAwakening- No worries; I find most weather enthusiasts get pretty agressive defending their snow statistics. Pretty common lol.

Mason803- That picture of the walnut street bridges in Harrisburg collapsing is one of the best.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Quoting Blizzard92:
TheRasberryPatch- There have been a few "1 two punches" as the weather channel refers to them, hahaha. But I do not believe there have been back to back "feet" snowstorms within three days of each other.


the best 1 two punch i've ever seen was 1996 with the blizzard giving over 30+" of snow followed by 12" of snow a day or two later. then it all melted lol
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Sorry Patch, I thought you were being a little smart with the statement, but in terms of feet with each storm, there I believe you are right in that regard. I hope that would occur, I am optimistic that it is possible for that to occur, since anything in reality is possible. However I was talking about a few feet in total from two snowstorms. In this case we have a +PNA and -NAO trending positive which means we still have a blocking pattern and a closed 500mb low that develops causing the slowing down of the second storm which the models are showing. I know that you are nice Patch, just got caught up in the moment, it's hard to distinguish someone's demeanor on the computer when emotions cannot be shown.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
TheRasberryPatch- There have been a few "1 two punches" as the weather channel refers to them, hahaha. But I do not believe there have been back to back "feet" snowstorms within three days of each other.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
I have the same book, and Patch I think you misread my statement, a said 2 feet or more in total of the two storms like in 2003 where we had a storm on February 7, 2003 dump 14-18" and then February 17-18, 2003 dump another 18" of snow. I was talking about this, not 2 feet or more each from a two storm event.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
charlesimages- It is miserable out there. I think yesterday was worse with a strong easterly wind.

Stay warm man! We should warm up here in MI this weekend.. will try to share..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
sorry TDA that you think i have some type of attitude. i am just commenting. please don't take anything i say seriously. it is just a comment. take things lighthearted. its just a blog
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
TDA and Miss Nadia I wasn't saying that a couple of feet couldn't happen, but that is usually from one storm. i was just commenting on that I can't recall too many times in the past where a two storms dropped 2 feet or more from each in a day or two period, but I am not an expert. Blizz has the book that talks about these storms, maybe he can comment if there has ever been two storms back to back dropping several feet of snow on an area of the east coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244
Patch - there is always time for something to happen for a first time. Cape Cod, MA has actually had many storms where we have received 2 feet or more of snow, so I don't know where this attitude is coming from, maybe perhaps you are mixing us up with somewhere else, but we get our fair share of snowstorms with more then a foot, you just don't hear about on this blog, because I am complaining about storms missing us either way a lot, we have gotten at least several big snowstorms, here are some examples: February 26-27, 1999 (24"), February 7, 2003 (14"), February 17-18, 2003 (18"), December 26, 2004 (15"), January 23, 2005 (35"), these are just several storms, we also had a snowstorm in November of 1989 where we got 12" or more, and I was only three months old. Also in 1993-1994 winter we got 65.8" of snow the previous record holder, until that was broken in the winter of 2004-2005 where we got 92.6" of snow total.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
PalmyraPunishment- You are right about that. Now the wet snow will compact and some of it will melt today. But if the second coastal can throw snow that far west Saturday, ugh, things will be horrible.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
State College looks like an absolute disaster right now.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
TDW - in the history of Cape Cod when have they ever gotten several feet of snow? now play it out with these storms in Jan or Feb. do you really think they would set up like that? i think sometimes you have to be a realist and recognize that the storms would never set up like that unless it has happened before. granted it can happen anytime, but if it has happened in the past or once before WELL


Woa, settle down. In matter of fact we have gotten 35" of snow in a single storm, so don't tell me we haven't, when I have so many times in the past talked about this storm. Perhaps last winter, we had several consecutive snowstorms blast the central New England area. Given that the storm track is expected to come up the East Coast for the majority of the winter, I believe the coast will be more favored for snowstorms then say PA or inland areas. Now based on the last several storms to affect us this fall, this track is becoming contagious with the exception of the rogue Great Lakes Cutters when we all get warm sectored and it comes in as rain with a front. So I am being realistic, however you are right in the fact that it is rare, but it is realistic.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3610
325
Morning Patch

The Cape did have a couple of feet of snow back about 1990. It was at the time Boston had their huge storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
charlesimages- It is miserable out there. I think yesterday was worse with a strong easterly wind.

TheRasberryPatch- I just like to take the cautious approach after so many failed storms over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. State College though I did nail as the bullseye. The last three days emphasized how well State College does in these types of events. What concerns me is our dewpoint and actually slowly rising temperature today. The dewpoint is so high today, even with below 0C temperatures aloft, it may be hard to get the dewpoint to 32.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15072
Blizz - you were like that all last winter. guidance said YES and you just didn't have that feeling. It is only October, but yet again State College and points very nearby are getting snow. Our temps are awfully close. Also, the sun is still high in the sky if #2 hits early.

rain is still coming down lightly, but enough to get you wet if you stood outside for a couple of minutes, but it really isn't showing up on radar.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6244

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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