October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

Share this Blog
0
+

I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 427 - 377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Good morning, Blizzard,

They kept putting the words Western PA and snow together in the same sentence on the radio yesterday, so I thought I'd better pop over and see if there was any evidence of the excitement. Yep! Love the pic of the pumpkin in the snow especially.

And I really enjoyed your header. Cool air, bonfires, clear skies - nothing better. Hope the rest of your weekend is great.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I found snow this morning:










This was up at the big flat. The elevation there is just above 2000ft. (northwestern part of adams county) I measured 1.5" of snow and it was still snowing lightly this morning. This made my day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i wasn't up that late to see if i got any snow

a low of 38F now at 39F

rain so far 2.70"

barometer hasn't really done much 30.08" or 1018.7mb
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Lots of reports of snow in this band moving north through Lower Susquehanna Valley. Even the city of Baltimore there have been reports of patchy flakes...

PAZ065-066-180745-
LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
151 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
LANCASTER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...

THROUGH 4 AM...A BAND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
LANCASTER COUNTIES. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS...WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES IF AND LEAF-LADEN TREE BRANCHES FALL AS THE WET SNOW
ACCUMULATES ON THEM.

PAZ036-063-064-180645-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-
122 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...A HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT SOUTH MOUNTAIN IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...

THROUGH 3 AM...A HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1200 FEET IN WESTERN ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. THIS MAINLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTH MOUNTAIN
REGION.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Blizz, I thought that, for example, 30.00" was equal to 1016mb, and 1017mb would equal 30.03", 1018mb equal to 30.06" etc. In other words each 1mb movement would be equal to .03" of mercury, or vice/versa.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
originalLT- There isn't a set conversion I do not believe. 2.42inches of rain here so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Cool highway picture, you can really see the snow on the grassy areas. Just a technical question, below the picture it gives the stats., it says the baro. is 30.08" or 1021mb, wouldn't 1021mb be 30.15" ?.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --LOW OFF DELMARVA WILL SLOSH AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE M-U 30S OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. ONLY
THE FAR WRN MTS ARE BELOW FZG. THERE IS SOME SNOW FALLING ON THE
RIDGES S/E OF UNV AND NW OF MDT ATTM. AS WBZ LEVELS DIP SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...THESE LEVELS SHOULD DROP A FEW HUNDRED MORE FEET...AND
SOME SNOW MAY EVEN MIX IN ACROSS THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. THERE
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR HARRISBURG BY THE MORNING
...BUT MOST OF THE
LARGER CITIES THERE WILL STAY ALL RAIN ALL NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE UP TO 3 INCHES ON THE RIDGES IN SCHUYLKILL AND
COLUMBIA COS...BUT MOST OF THAT AREA WILL ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR
TWO.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Snow beginning to fall heavy in western Maryland into the Laurel Highlands of southcentral Pennsylvania.

I-81 at I-70 in Maryland...


Johnstown-Cambria County Airport
Lat: 40.33 Lon: -78.83 Elev: 2280
Last Update on Oct 17, 9:54 pm EDT

Snow Fog

32 °F
(0 °C) Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: N 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.08" (1021.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 31 °F (-1 °C)
Wind Chill: 25 °F (-4 °C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Evening Bliz. Just got back. Boy is the shore creepy during the offseason, lol. Anyway, it was rather windy with light to moderate rain at times. We took a look at the bay and there were pretty decent waves (for bay standards) and it was very misty outside. And the drive home against the windblown rain was horrible, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Temperature continues to fall, 38.9.

Mason803- I think it will be a mix of rain/snow showers over the region. A few questions remain on the evolution of the precipitation shield tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
So far, not one drop of rain here yet , alot of verga,got to start raining soon! temp. 46.4F Baro. 1020mb. wind N 3-8mph. Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
blizzard92,

any idea of what the weather will be like at 7 am tomorrow morn?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
after a high of 43F i am down to 40.6F

the barometer is looking like a mountain range climbing up. it continues to climb.

unless the temps drop drastically here i don't see any mixing in my area
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
this is the only advisory that is in my county:

Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2009

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 4 am EDT
Sunday...

A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 4 am EDT Sunday.

A persistent northeast wind produced minor tidal flooding along
the upper portions of Delaware Bay this morning and will do so
again around the time of high tide once again late this evening.

High tide along the Upper Bay will occur around 1130 PM tonight.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas. Do not leave or
drive your vehicle in an area that is prone to tidal flooding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- I think it is starting to mix on South Mountain for elevations aoa 1750ft. Freezing heights have lowered to 3000ft and the other critical thicknesses are below 0C. Also a few radars picking up on some mixing.
thats good. i wonder how low the rain/snow line will make it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mason803- I think it is starting to mix on South Mountain for elevations aoa 1750ft. Freezing heights have lowered to 3000ft and the other critical thicknesses are below 0C. Also a few radars picking up on some mixing.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Wow that is weird about the freeze in georgia. Rain is getting heavier now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
high of 41 here. current temp 38.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Coastal low now has formed near Delmarva. Winds are shifting to the northeast allowing temperatures to fall a bit. Dropped from a high of 43.1 to currently 39.9degrees. That is a much larger range than the past few nights.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
I sort of think it is comical that Atlantic on south in Georgia are under a freeze watch, yet many areas here in the north have not been at or below freezing despite all of this cold air with departures near -20 each day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
The precip now on radar is seemingly filling in now and moving northward, I really think the playoff game at Yankee Stadium is in jeapardy for tonight, unless of course they elect to play in the rain, I hope they don't.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
i see the precipitation is spreading west

temp 42
barometer is starting to fall 30.03" or 1017.0mb
2.15" of rain for the storm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
back from my errands temp is now a toasty 46 degrees with a light rain falling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
skies trying to brighten up here, 42F. 3 day total not that impressive; only 1.03"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
originalLT- Yep that is where it will form and slowly become cutoff as it moves northeast.

wxgeek723- When winter starts returning things go wild around here, lol. Last year we almost hit 1000 comments in a blog in January. Anyways looks like guidance suggesting another 1-1.5inches of rain for many areas with a large steady rain likely especially late tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
401st! Lol. You must be enjoying the high activity on your blog Bliz. A total of 1.02 inches fell from Thursday to midday yesterday. I'm actually going down to Cape May today to visit relatives, so it should be interesting to see how it is there. I have no intention of going near the water, lol. At least the drive there should be tranquil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty good storm total Blizz , I got only 0.53" so far. Blizz, on the vis. sat. it looks like there is a spin to the clouds over central Va. is that the distubence that will translate into the second noreaster they are taking about? So far no rain by me today. Radar is not that impressive now, at least along the coast.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
2.04inches of rain here as a storm total.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
41f here. rain has been steady all morn. check this Link of accumulated precip. western adams has seen the heaviest rain. i'm approaching 2.5" of rain and that band of precip to the south will add to that total.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Temp is now to 44. a break in the rain for right now. I have to catch the bus to work so I hope this break in the rain lasts for a bit. Forgot my phone at work I hope. If it is not there then I left it on the bus yesterday and I will have to get it deactivated. It was a cheap phone so so it is no biggie if it is gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42.1F here with very little rain or drizzle
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
39.8degrees with moderate rain here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Good morning Blizz. I was reading about the damage in Happy Valley from the snow and one of the comments in the Centre county paper was that the storm actually caught some of the forecasters in State College off guard. "The Centre Region appeared

hardest hit. The National Weather Service reported 3.2 inches of snowfall in Philipsburg by 7 a.m. Friday morning. In State College the total at that time was 4.7 inches. In Park Forest it was 6 inches and, at the top of Mount Nittany, 8 inches of accumulation was recorded.

Bill Syrett, manager of the Joel N. Myers Weather Center at Penn State, said it was hard to believe what had happened.

“All of us old forecasters were like: ‘No way, (that) doesn’t happen here,’ ” he said Friday around noon. “And while we’re talking, it has snowed 27 hours straight ... and that’s unheard of in October.”



Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/story/1572060.html#ixzz0UChGpdNC

See what it looks likd at game time at 3PM

Cold and raw again today. The cold and damp weather seems to go right through me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
38.7 here, mod. rain; reports of snow mixing in around the Lehigh Valley, not here yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just watched the NAM run and it seems even colder and stronger. I really think I will see a little mixing tomorrow.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
i wonder what it is like at PU?

temp is steady at 39.8F

barometer is slowly rising

rain for the storms is 2.08"
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Morning all, just looking at the radar, pretty good batch of precip. in western and central N.J. and eastern PA., but it appears to be moving NNE which means it may miss me in Stamford CT. 45F now baro. 1018mb NE wind 0-5mph. sun trying to peak thru the clouds.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
good morning. nws seems to think another inch of rain is possible tonight into tomorrow alone with a deformation setting up. i'm up to 2.12" for the event. if only it were january,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is raining really hard where I am. I am concerned about flooding if it is supposed to rain into tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
take a look at these links and check out the inlet at OCMD and the beach
Link if anyone knows the inlet the rocks are completely covered and the water is really moving and the inlet waters look like they are ready to wash over the rock wall into assateague surf

Link

Link

Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
the temp has dropped one degree since midnight to 39F

the barometer has been climbing or holding steady since yesterday @ 30.00" or 1015.8mb

rain for the storm is 1.86"

i wonder how much more rain we will see? will it go over the 3" mark
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
hey blizz- I had three flakes that I saw mix in when I left for school and that quick it was over been rain ever since, I don't think were going to see much snow the temps really warmed up today. I thought the CAD would have kept them in the 30's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am still not on the NWS train snow wagon. RUC indicates warming H85s again towards dawn and surface temperatures out there tonight are warm even in the north country. With thick clouds, temperatures will likely not change to much if we continue to only see light precipitation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Evening #381

This is 20 miles SE of Cape Fear N.C.

Frying Pan Tower
NDBC - Station 41013 Observations
Station 41013
October 16, 2009 8:50 pm EDT
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Wind Direction: NNE (20°)
Wind Speed: 19.4 knots
Wind Gust: 23.3 knots
Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (36°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in (1007.3 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.04 in (+1.3 mb)
Air Temperature: 65.5°F (18.6°C)
Dew Point: 60.3°F (15.7°C)
Water Temperature: 77.7°F (25.4°C)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW I just cant believe all this is happening with the weather. I wish you all luck in state college with all the problems with the snow. Temps are holding steady around 43 now. I hear the rain is supposed to start later tomorrow again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blizz, where exactly is the off shore low forming, off NC. ?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Just checking in, was mostly cloudy here all day, a little brightening in the sky around late morning but that didn't last. High was 46.2F low 35.9F, baro now is 1017mb. Currently42.3F. We've had only about 0.53" of rain(with a few snow flakes) since this storm began, hardly anything today during the daylight hours. Wind mostly out of the NE, ocassionally drifting NW, at 5-10mph. Now the winds are calm.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Everything is set. Moisture increasing, s/w beginning to interact with a forming offshore low. Key is surface temperatures/dewpoints. Temperatures aloft are already below 0C H85 as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike statewide. If a strong deformation band forms in central Pennsylvania like some guidance suggests, watch out!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
temp has been steady since 4pm at 41F

barometer is rising at 30.00" or 1016.0mb

rain for the storm 1.50"

are the models still expecting a s/w coming out of the lakes and then a low forming off the coast? i have been watching webcams at OCMD and really haven't seen any flooding from the surf.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Good evening Sir.
Here is the conditions on this mountain top.

Today
High 39F
Light drizzle.



Currently
34F snow!!!! :-)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

Viewing: 427 - 377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
27 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations