The Northeast Weather Blog...

October Nor'easter???

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.

Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)

Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.

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101. TheRasberryPatch 4:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
i see they have a high wind watch, a gale watch and hazardous weather statement and coastal flood watch up for the coast. they expect a strong coast storm. if this storm plays out like they predict it will do some serious damage along the east coast. Blizz - is it time to break out the WGAL Doppler? hahaha Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

102. PalmyraPunishment 6:08 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
am i missing something by not being here on the regular yet? hahahahaha Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

103. onoweather 6:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
blizz- so much for my dry saturday in state college, looks like it might be white. Do you think the 12ZNAM is to heavy on QPF? Also doesn't look like to much snow south of I-80, 850 temps are very marginal. Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

104. Zachary Labe 6:56 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
weathergeek5- Carbon and Monroe counties may seem some snow, but the farther west one goes the better so Mt. Holly CWA should only get mostly rain. jthal57- Low of 37 here, once again winds overnight would not decouple TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha, wouldn't it be nice to see a light dusting of snow against the fall colors. I am hoping Blue Mountain sees some snow to get pictures. The elevation behind my house on the summit is around 1300ft. Well we certainly have the cool air. Today is the second day this month I have not gotten out of the 40s for highs and departures from normal by the start of next week will be around -4degrees for the month, well below normal. Also I definitely will be using the WGAL radar this winter nothing is any better. But a bit too early now, lol. NEwxguy- Thanks for the report, raw day here currently 47. originalLT- Thanks for your report! There is two waves of precipitation so timing is a bit low confidence (along with everything else, lol) SilverShipsofAndilar- Looks like Accuweather winter forecast is out and very snow for Middle Atlantic. I really think there is the potential for an I-81 corridor winter. PalmyraPunishment- Yeppers, you better march on back here, hahaha. Interesting times ahead. onoweather- Lol, not quite the same Saturday forecast. 850s are marginal yes, but with such a strong easterly flow and cold high to north, I can see the higher elevations (aob 1200ft) seeing snow along and north of the turnpike. Also look towards the end of the storm on the models. They all feature an area of energy held back with cooler H85s. That will likely be the potential snow for higher elevations Friday night. And I definitely think the NAM is overestimating QPF. It has a severe wet bias and performed that way all summer. Really most of the models are probably a bit too much in the QPF department. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

105. Zachary Labe 7:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 215 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2009 MDZ001-PAZ030-032-WVZ023-041-142015- GARRETT-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...OHIOPYLE...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS... DAVIS...THOMAS 215 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2009 .NOW... ...SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... SPOTTERS AND NWS EMPLOYEES HAVE REPORTED SNOW ABOVE 2500 FEET ACROSS THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOMERSET AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...AND GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND. WHILE A COATING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY RAIN AND NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

106. onoweather 7:11 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Blizz- do you think we'll see snow down here at the lower evelevations? or is it only on the ridgetops northward of the turnpike? Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

107. NEwxguy 7:12 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Its amazing to see so many reports of snow on Oct 14,a very unusual event going on the next several days.I actually managed to reach 50 this afternoon. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13084

108. Zachary Labe 7:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
onoweather- Not quite sure yet, I think it is a possibility especially for you and I along Blue Mountain. The 850 low, which always moved north of us last year during S/W events causing the lack of snow is finally going to move south of our region especially towards Friday night. This will allow the flow aloft to turn ENE which may allow H85s to fall just enough for some snow to mix in. It will be close. Just interesting to note a coating of snow/sleet has been reported in Garret County, Maryland but also some low valleys such as Leesburg, Virginia have reported sleet currently. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

109. PalmyraPunishment 7:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
What I find interesting is that Bastardi apparently feels (keep in mind, it's Bastardi. The guy hasn't exactly been a pillar of accuracy lately) that the El Nino will fade into a more neutral pattern for the winter. If that's the case I point your attention to Blizz's "The Mid Atlantic Winter" blog from the middle of last winter where he posted several graphs depicting winter weather patterns that presented a strong case for cyclical winter weather in terms of decades. The 80s in regards to PDO appear to be the only anomaly having a mostly positive value, the 90s were rough, and this decade - for our part of the world, has been relatively tame. Interesting to point that we are approaching the beginning of a new decade. The graphs provide historical evidence that might suggest that this winter could be a swing of the pendulum towards another decade that is more conducive to wintry weather. Either way, I've noticed that while it hasn't gotten as cold as early as in previous years -- it hasn't exactly been Indian Summer either. This year may be the proverbial "toss up"... Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

110. Zachary Labe 7:25 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- That PDO you and I talked a lot about last winter is rising; let me go try to find the current values vs. last year at this time. Here is the link all to the blog being referenced... Link. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

111. Zachary Labe 7:31 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
PDO September readings... 2005- (-.46) 2006- (-.94) 2007- (-.36) 2008- (-1.55) 2009- ( .52) Not sure I completely agree it is positive, but none the less it is rising. By the way take the snowy winter of 2002-2003. The September PDO reading was ( .43). Link. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

112. onoweather 7:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
blizz-did you see the WSWatch issued for schuylkill and points North and West. Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

113. lawntonlookers 7:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Good afternoon Blizz. It looks like snow the way the clouds are. I think Thompsontown had a 32 F reading this morning at 7:53AM Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

114. Zachary Labe 7:40 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
onoweather- You beat me, lol. See that winter storm watch is close enough to give some snow to the mountains of Dauphin, Perry, Lebanon, and Franklin Counties. lawntonlookers- Yep it is raw out. Quite a few sleet reports coming out of the western Washington DC suburbs due to evaportation cooling. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

115. TheRasberryPatch 7:41 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
one question for you Blizz. i have found the jet stream and the way it sets up has a lot to do with storm track at least from when i used to watch the tv mets before internet. what makes the jet line up to give us these storms along the coast? or am i just wrong in thinking the jet has any part in the storm track? i know you talk about the PDO and the moderate la nina, but doesn't that jet play an intricle part? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

116. Zachary Labe 7:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
By the way who would have thought State College is the first NWS east of the Mississippi to issue a WINTER STORM WATCH, hahaha. Current Garret County, Maryland webcam... TheRasberryPatch- It has a major influence but it is built around the indices. For instance positive PNA tends to favor an amplfied jet stream with a ridge in the west and trough in the east. All of these indices tend to oriente the jet to their liking in simplistic terms. Also during El Nino/La Nina years the historical average suggests different ways the jet stream is positioned. I hope that helps. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

117. TheRasberryPatch 7:46 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
high of 49.7F and it is now 48.5F with a dewpt of 35.7F i love the feel of this weather. nice crisp autumn afternoon. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

118. Zachary Labe 7:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- O I do too. But the high is still well below normal. November 24 is when the average high hits 49degrees! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

119. TheRasberryPatch 7:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
the jet is usually a sine wave, correct? so doesn't it move west to east depending on the ridge and trough? what controls the jet? the indices? doesn't the jet slide east giving us a ridge or trough? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

120. onoweather 7:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
blizz- do you know what elevation that webcam is at? Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

121. wxgeek723 7:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Oh wow Bliz you seem to be getting excited. I knew from the beginning I wouldn't see anything other then heavy rain. I need to move away from the ocean. You must be furious to be just outside a Winter Storm Watch, lol. Especially in October, when was the last time the region saw snow this early anyway? Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

122. Zachary Labe 8:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Yep it is a sine/cosine curve and winds blow from west to east up to 200knots sometimes during the winter. A lot of things go into the position of the jet including things such as the MJO, which takes in account tropical rainfall anomalies and tropical convection activity. El Nino and the effects of the monsoonal rains effect the jet stream. onoweather- (~2800ft) wxgeek723- Well a few Octobers have featured snows in north central Pennsylvania, but none to recent for this time period in October. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

123. TheRasberryPatch 8:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
wow, Blizz, i guess i didn't realize we are a month ahead of average high Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

124. Zachary Labe 8:04 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Here is a great American Meteorological Society scholarly journal essay on the jet stream and special synoptic conditions. Link is to abstract, but the PDF file is listed near the top of the page... Link. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

125. PalmyraPunishment 8:11 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
The last time I remember Snowfall in October was 2003 and that was around the 30th-31st or closer to it. I was living in Huntingdon County at the time where I was a Sr in High School and it snowed on "trick or treat" night. Totally unexpected by me as I was hanging out at my best friend's house and we stepped outside to walk down the street to the local OIP for a food run and as soon as we opened the door everything was white. Only a coating, but nice nonetheless. That's the last time I saw snow in October of any real substance. I can't believe however, we're nearing a year since the November lake effect snow event from last year. Man, how time flies. Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250

126. Zachary Labe 8:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
18z NAM coming in a good deal colder actually, looking at H85s. 0C along turnpike instead of I-80. Now this time of year H85 0C is not a rain/snow line for valleys, but it can be for higher elevations. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

127. onoweather 8:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
18Z NAM is looking nice so far 850 freezing line is right on top of me Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

128. onoweather 8:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
blizz- you beat me!lol Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

129. Zachary Labe 8:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
onoweather- We will have to see if this is a trend with the 0z data. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

130. TheRasberryPatch 8:20 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
i am watching the regional radar and the moisture is not condensed. is this the moisture arriving from the tennessee valley? or is that still there? and when will the coastal low form? according to NAM? or other model? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

131. onoweather 8:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
blizz-its definately trending colder each model run from 0z last night, which was the warmest I believe in the past two days? not 100% on that statement Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

132. Zachary Labe 8:23 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- If you look at those graphics I posted in the blog above, it gives a pretty good representation of the development of this low. The energy transferal will occur tomorrow midday to form the coastal low and that will track along the eastern seaboard. The only model descrepancies are exact low track and QPF northern extent along with strength of cold air damming/high pressure. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

133. TheRasberryPatch 8:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
thanks Blizz. i wasn't sure if anything had changed. is any precip around DC and Baltimore reaching the ground. i just see overcast for there. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

134. Zachary Labe 8:30 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- ASOS stations not reporting anything, but personal ground reports are saying there is a light rain/sleet mix around the area. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

135. TheRasberryPatch 9:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
well one nice thing after 4 or 5 days of rain and wind we get into some warmer weather according to NWS. sunny and 60's Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5637

136. weathergeek5 9:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Hey Blizz for the 1992-1993 season were there a lot of nor'easters that year besides the superstorm? I remember the mountains of PA getting a huge amount of snow in the fall and winter. I was going to college in ohio and I was mad I could not be on the east coast that year. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

137. TheDawnAwakening 9:43 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Also discrepencies develop within their mid to upper level charts of the jet streams. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

138. Zachary Labe 10:47 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
weathergeek5- Yep quite a few including ice storms. 18z GFS is interesting as it brings a norlun trough like feature across southern Pennsylvania with the entire column below freezing as far south as the turnpike in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. That is towards Saturday. I will look for it on future runs. Member Since:* December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

139. Snowlover2010 10:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Hey Bliz I am going up to James Creek on saturday. Think i will see much snow? Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

140. Snowlover2010 10:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Also does the 18z GFS show snow for me in Lancaster? Thats what it looks like to me. If so will we have a chance of accumulation here? Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

141. Zachary Labe 10:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Snowlover2010- Yep out there in western Huntingdon County you will at the minimum see snow on the mountaintops. As far as Lancaster I doubt it, but verbatum the 18z GFS would probably give a period of light snow flurries. Keep your hopes up!!! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

142. Snowlover2010 11:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
By the way if I remeber right the 18z DGEX also showed a period of light snow here. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

143. TheDawnAwakening 11:04 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
I don't think it will stay cold enough here in Central NH for snow towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

144. Zachary Labe 11:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- There is not too much QPF up there anways. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

145. TheDawnAwakening 11:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
Blizzard do you watch the Celtics on CSN? Also another exhibtion tonight at 730pm. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

146. Snowlover2010 11:15 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
I was actually looking at other models and it seems that most 18z runs have shifted south(NAM, DGEX, ETA, GFS). Hopefully this trend continues. Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

147. Zachary Labe 11:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- On occasion. Celtics would be my favorite basketball team though. Snowlover2010- It will be interesting to see the 0z runs after the models ingest the new data. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

148. Snowlover2010 11:20 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
I can't wait for 00z! Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

149. weathergeek5 12:23 AM GMT on October 15, 2009
Wow this seems like a mid January blog. Here in Delaware I better have a raincoat with me. An umbrella will break in that wind I think. I also am getting confused how many storms will we deal with over the next 4 days? SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... IT`S NOT OFTEN THAT WE GET BACK TO BACK NOR`EASTERS IN OCTOBER. AS THE FIRST LOW REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY, RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE MILD, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ROAD SURFACES. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SOGGY WET SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. THE LINE BETWEEN NO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AND AN ADVISORY/WARNING EVENT WILL BE A FINE ONE. JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN OUR AREA. MOVE THAT LINE 20 OR 30 MILES SOUTHEAST, AND WE HAVE OUR FIRST WINTER STORM(EVEN THOUGH IT`S ONLY OCTOBER). STAY TUNED. THAT FIRST STORM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LAT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY, AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

150. Zachary Labe 12:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2009
weathergeek5- It is definitely complex. Two coastal lows then possibility an inverted trough. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14300

151. BostonDan 12:32 AM GMT on October 15, 2009
Hey Blizz! Glad to see the wintry madness starting up! Member Since: February 10, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 431

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperature:	85.1 °F
Dew Point:	73.3 °F
Humidity:	68%
Wind:	2.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust:	5.0 mph
Updated: 1:24 PM EDT on May 21, 2013 Station History