October Nor'easter???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

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I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.


Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees


KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)
Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.
Autumn's festival of colors...

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weathergeek5- I do not think it will be that strong. Just two low pressure flat wave passages.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
My NWS calls this storm a hefty nor'easter. As of right now how strong do you think this will be?

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THINK THE OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT THE MAV MOS IS SPITTING OUT ARE A
LITTLE TOO COLD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
SLIGHT AIR MASS MODIFICATION CAN BE SEEN IN THE MODELS WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW TURNING TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AT
THE MID-LEVELS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A PRETTY HEFTY NOR-EASTER AFFECTING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW, FORMING NEAR THE
CAROLINA`S, BEGINS SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST SO DOES THE PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WET AND
COLD DAY AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND
PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, STILL THINK THAT THE MAV MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN
REGARDS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WITH BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF CLOSELY MATCH SO THE MET MOS
WAS PRIMARILY USED ON THURSDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WINTER IS STILL A FEW MONTHS AWAY, THIS PATTERN IS
DEFINITELY A WINTER ONE. COOLER LANDMASS TEMPERATURES AND WARMER
OCEAN AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACT AS A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
THUS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO KEEP A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1743
I think the coastal low will be further west in the end, given the +PNA and -NAO regime.
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Blizz it is just east of the main intersection very close to the fire dept. you should check it out. good beer. and good food. its nice for me because its just a hop skip and a jump to get there
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
StSimonsIslandGAGuy- It certainly could indicate the high pressure moving in is strong enough for cold air damming. I guess you are finally getting a taste of the cooler air after all of your warmer weather.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Oh Blizz, you are so cute (comment 66). In other words it may happen or it may not and that's what makes life a little more fun. Sort of like planning a trip, traveling, getting lost, or taking a direct route... is just as much whatever as being there.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
TheDawnAwakening- QPF looks to be a bit south of your region according to latest guidance so I guess that is why they are keeping it pretty quiet.

TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha. We shall see. I never like to be too bullish. Anyways never heard of that in Campbelltown. I guess I will have to look for it next time I drive through the area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - great with the words. now you can come back and say well i said may/possible/perhaps/could/chance and it is a no lose situation. very nice. way to go out on a limb. hahaha. just giving you sh*t. btw - i hope you didn't but your tonuge, whatever that is. lol

never eaten at Cafe Campbelltown. it always has lots of cars there. Sopranos is very good, next to Annies. Brass Rail Deli you need to stop in sometime. It is attached to the beer store. Same owners. He opened a deli with a wall of beer that is from all over the world and he can chill it in 4 mins. Also, he sells six packs and domestic brews in the refrigerator. lastly, he has 6 micro brews on tap. its a nice little place.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
NWS in Gray, ME is kind of just mentioning the possibility, but not going into any detail at this time. We had some wet snow this morning, but nothing accumulated. Its cold with temps in the 40-42F range today.
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Well hopefully I do not bite my tonuge, but I think there is a legitimate chance for many central Pennsylvanians to see their first snowflakes of the year by the end of this week. And higher elevations from Blue Mountain north through State College up through White Deer Mountains have a chance at accumulating snow. GFS is impressive in terms of cold air and pumps a north-northeast wind from the cold perfect high placement to the north into the northern fringes of this system. QPF while is not as much in some areas is enough for some possible accumulations. With the deep negatively tilted trough and upper level low placement it does look like a classic October snowfall especially for central Pennsylvania through southeast New York. State College usually does well in these situations, look back at October 2002 Halloween up there. Also notice the date, 2002. Anyways I am definitely not getting carried away, but I at times like to be a bit gutsy in my forecasts as I was slightly criticized in not taking chances last winter, hahaha. Two waves will impact the region and more information on setup can be found in blog above, only chances are that the wave is a bit flatter and may track farther south. Notice I choose my words very carefully, hahaha, may/possible/perhaps/could/chance. Alot of factors for early season snowstorms with very, very little room for error and I will be around for analysis around 8pm this evening. As expected I will update on any changes. But for those with locations above any snow accumulating this time of year can be destructive. Even if nothing occurs take this once again as a fun learning opportunity as forecasting knowledge always can be gained despite any experience from the past.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR AT 850 HPA AND 925 HPA...MODELS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SHOULD WE GET THE RATES SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN CENTRAL PA
. EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST MADE WEATHER TYPE
RAIN OR SNOW. THE 1200 UTC GEFS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR SNOW IS OVER CENTRAL PA. PROBABILITIES APPROACH 100 PERCENT AT
TIMES THUR- FRIDAY. BUT QPF IS RELATIVELY LOW.


AT THIS TIME THE MODELS IMPLY THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THE
HIGH PROB OF SNOW AREA. BUT THE ANOMALOUS LLJ IMPLIES THE QPF
SHIELD COULD COME WELL WEST OF THE HIGH PROB OF 0.25 TO 1.00
INCHES OF QPF. AS THIS FORECAST GETS INTO THE SHORTER RANGES ONE
COULD CONSIDER THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT FOR NOW...DUE TO LOW PROB OF
HIGH QPF KEPT IT MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


THE MORE RECENT MODELS APPEAR TO PLAY DOWN THE SECOND POTENTIAL
CYCLONE. SO AS THE FIRST CYCLONE LIFTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT QPF
THREAT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THAT SAID SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE VERY COLD AS -1.5 TO -2SD THERMAL ANOMALIES MOVE OVER US.
ADDITIONALLY COLD NORTHWEST (+1SD ABV NORMAL NORTHERLY WINDS)
FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PA SATURDAY.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
I may see some frost,but wind may stay up enough to keep frost away,but tomorrow night should be a different story.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
TheRasberryPatch- No not familiar with that place. I know where Annies is though. Cafe Campbelltown is also a nice eatery.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
have you stopped at Mazzoli's? they don't have a drive thru, but i think the ice cream is great. and they say it is the only homemade in the area. they have unusual flavors also. my favorite is butter brickle. Mmmmmmmmmm you should see Annie's at the light in Campbelltown during the summer, crowded. if you like soft ice cream it is good.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Very interesting CTP discussion today concerning snowfall. I have not had a chance to analyze today's new data, but the NWS is now talking the possibility of snow even as far south as Dauphin County with rain/snow mix in grid data forecasts.

TheDawnAwakening- Congrats!

NEwxguy- Frost advisory for here tonight.

TheRasberryPatch- Yep I stopped at the Milton Hershey kid-run pumpkin patch, but my favorite ice cream is Brusters. The flavors are slightly unusual and the drive thru is nice.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - what did you get when on 322 yesterday? pumpkins and ice cream? next time you want really really good home made ice cream and on 322 go to Mazzoli's just a couple of blocks west of the Cocoa Motel(corner of 743 & 322). the ice cream is so good.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Wet,cool morning here in eastern mass,watched the radar and a lot of white showing up on the radar.
About 43 here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
First snowfall of the 2009-2010 snowfall season, no accumulations. Northern NH and ME have been issued a winter weather advisory for a few inches of snow.
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Frost advisories and freeze warnings out for many areas tonight and tomorrow morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - i looked up to the end of the month and saw only a few nights. now granted that is a long way off and fronts could form anytime to our north with the model not seeing it. i just thought it was interesting.

thanks jthal.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
TheRasberryPatch- We do not really have ideal radiational cooling conditions with the clouds this week. It is just an overall cold pattern. Tommorrow night is the next chance of patchy frost over our areas if the wind decouple.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Oh Blizz Blizz Blizz

hahahaha...only time will tell

jthal - where did you purchase the battery? any place batteries are sold?

I got mine at Sears, but I saw them at CVS, Walgreens, etc. Mine was Energizer lithium, #123, I think it was 3.0v
looking at that link it doesn't appear there are very many nights below freezing. that seems a bit unusual
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
18z GFS remains chilly with the high for Harrisburg not getting above 59degrees in the next 16 days and beyond. That seems a bit extreme though so I wouldn't buy it. Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Oh Blizz Blizz Blizz

hahahaha...only time will tell

jthal - where did you purchase the battery? any place batteries are sold?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
thanks jthal. i will definitely go out and buy a new one and replace it. that makes sense. i think that is when it would go out. i can remember last February during a Blizz hyped storm where it would go out. and that was usually a couple of days of clouds.

hahaha - lets see if Blizz is paying attention.

and the stats are pretty amazing. it seems like they used to say the Big Ten would never win the Rose Bowl mostly because of the travel. granted these days its nothing, but also the Big Ten used to finish by the second week of November and off for 6 weeks. my wife always brings up her team MSU winning the Rose Bowl back in 87 or 88

lol
yea, the big ten was the stronger conference in the old days, but there were some good teams in the last 25 or so years. From '47-'59, Big ten won all but one game. In the '60's, it was split. '70's-'90s was advantage Pac 10.
TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha... Throwing subliminal messages around these days, what next!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
thanks jthal. i will definitely go out and buy a new one and replace it. that makes sense. i think that is when it would go out. i can remember last February during a Blizz hyped storm where it would go out. and that was usually a couple of days of clouds.

hahaha - lets see if Blizz is paying attention.

and the stats are pretty amazing. it seems like they used to say the Big Ten would never win the Rose Bowl mostly because of the travel. granted these days its nothing, but also the Big Ten used to finish by the second week of November and off for 6 weeks. my wife always brings up her team MSU winning the Rose Bowl back in 87 or 88
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
jthal - is that stat true? it seemed like i heard or read a stat that Bo and Woody were like 25% or less for the Rose Bowl, now I understand they haven't coached in decades, but they dominated the Big Ten for decades too.
thanks for the advice about reception problems. did you replace it from the ISS? why would it work most days and a few hours not? maybe it isn't charging correctly or the charge is intermittent on a few days out of the year. when i contacted Davis a few weeks ago they didn't mention the battery. hmmmm. it is over 5 years old. i may look into it.

I just counted from 1947 to current, I could be off one or two.
Yes, I changed the ISS battery; your symptoms sound somewhat similar. It was weird, it would work for days, then not for half a day. I came to the conclusion the solar was keeping it charged, and then when we had several cloudy days, I noticed I wasn't receiving data. It might be worth trying it; the battery is only $2-$3. Good luck!
Snowlover2010- Probably a flatter wave as we would be on the farthest nothern fringe, although with a coastal it will allow more cold air to funnel in the backside. Either way I think it matters to watch if there is a high pressure to the north.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Would a flatter wave or coastal be better for snow?
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Thanks Blizz,
I'll be watching for your latest. Hard to know with these things. I bet they are even more difficult to forecast than a tropical. Thanks for your work.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
hurigo- Good evening! Not quite sure yet. I am trying to wrap myself around a definitive forecast, but I remain uncertain. Models are not helping either now showing a weak, flatter wave with fewer coastal storm characteristics. Some of the upper air soundings will be better initiated into guidance tonight so we may start to see a better picture towards tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Hi Blizz, et al.
Went to work today and it was nice and warm. Went out mid-morning to feed my mocking bird some raisins and it was "freezing." Just checked the temps and it's only 60 ish but it feels cold and I think it is raining, or my vision is blurred.

So, what's up with the October Noyster (as my grandmother called them)? Is there one coming this weekend? Got a wedding this weekend on the MD side of the DC border.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 99 Comments: 6707
Snowlover2010- O believe me it is certainly a potential, but October is fickle and snow is rare so to forecast a chance of flurries even days in advance is a very gutsy forecast. Do you still have the meteograms from the GFS link? Here it is anyway... Link.

TheRasberryPatch- Here is a link to their homepage... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - sorry, i was thinking HPC was a computer model
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
jthal - is that stat true? it seemed like i heard or read a stat that Bo and Woody were like 25% or less for the Rose Bowl, now I understand they haven't coached in decades, but they dominated the Big Ten for decades too.
thanks for the advice about reception problems. did you replace it from the ISS? why would it work most days and a few hours not? maybe it isn't charging correctly or the charge is intermittent on a few days out of the year. when i contacted Davis a few weeks ago they didn't mention the battery. hmmmm. it is over 5 years old. i may look into it.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
I am really hoping for at least a flake or two this week!
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Snowlover2010- Eh I wouldn't be too concerned, although I will update throughout the week. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens along Peters Mountain or Blue Mountain but for now use my rule of thumb posted in the blog above... Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event.

TheRasberryPatch- HPC is like a sub-branch of NOAA that looks at hydro concerns. They are certainly reputable. The days coming will certainly be interesting and if we continue to bust 10degrees below the forecast high like today from the morning forecast then this week will be a forecasting nightmare, hahaha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
very interesting Blizz. very interesting. what is the time frame and do you trust HPC? was this in your blog? hmmmmmm? hahaha

Stan - like i said they sell brand new Davis for a lot less. like $400. there is one seller that is asking for best offer and if they don't like it they send you back a counteroffer and you can counter it or accept it. sounds like a great place to seat your station. besides WU there is CWOP that accepts your data also. oh...to get your data to the internet you will need a data logger with software. ambientweather.com is a great place for that.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Noticed that a few models show a litlle bit of light flurries on Thursday in S PA around like Lancaster and York(NAM, ETA, CMC). Maybe something to watch Bliz?
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RaspberryPatch-I think you would see a lot of interest if the Big Ten would have a Championship game. I'm not sure of this stat, but I think a Big Ten team has won 29 of last 62 Rose Bowl games. Also, My Davis VP2 at work had intermittent reception issues, and I changed the battery. So far it seems to have fixed it.
A little bit interesting from the HPC...

THE PATTERN IS DECIDEDLY WINTRY
OVER THE EAST...WITH VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND AT LEAST TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SWIPES AT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE FIRST WAVE IS
LIKELY TO BE SNOW...WITH THE GFS ALGORITHMS SUGGESTING THAT EVEN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE APPALACHIANS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

TO THE HILL COUNTRY OF CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS MAY SEE SOME
WET SNOW.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Stan did you check out ebay for Davis?



Not yet. I'll look. :-) If I get one. I intend to put it on the very top of the hill right behind me. It will be fun to see how hard these north winds blow. The house sits in a grove of spruce, down from the peak, and faces due south so the wind at the house is nothing. The power wires that run along the ridge hum from the wind often and loud enough to hear them 400 or so feet away at the house. But at the house the air is almost still.
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TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha. Well here is a stat for you. The average low is 46degrees for the date. My high for my weather station was 48degrees. That is pretty darn well below normal. I was down around your neck of the woods today, stopped at Brusters ice cream and the Milton Hershey kid's fall festival pumpkin etc. market, and then headed down through Mt. Gretna out through Brickerville. Looks like some yellows beginning to pop in the woods of the Mt. Gretna Mountains.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
jthal - well stated. i agree. Big Ten games are a lot better to watch lately. no more 3 yards and a cloud of dust. one reason why they never did well in the Rose Bowl. its ashame the Big Ten still is living back in the times. no championship game and no games after Thanksgiving or is it Thanksgiving weekend. most conferences have another week or two after that one.

Blizz - high of 50F here and overcast all day. you must run around the house in October in sweatshirts or heavy flannel shirts and thermal socks. lol. usually October is when the heat kicks on and there will be days when its on all day, maybe not as much as a day in January. hahaha

Stan did you check out ebay for Davis?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
NEwxguy- It looks like temperatures will try to moderate next week and that is to be expected. It is only October and there just is not enough cold air to go around this time of year to not include some periods of above normal temperatures. It does appear towards the end of the month near Halloween that wavelengths favor another cold blast. But this time around climatology favors temperatures being colder than currently. I have to say it is not a good sign when your heat runs the entire day in early October, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz,we reached the low 50's,but don't expect to see the 50's for a while.We have to get through this cold snap,I suspect after this there will be a dramatic warmup for a short period.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
Stanb999- I was just checking obs up that way as I thought there may be some sleet. High of 48degrees even at my location today so it is much colder across northern Pennsylvania. It will be a pretty chilly night with some spotty drizzle, light rain with lows in 30s for your area.

NEwxguy- Today was a wakeup call down here for many not getting out of the 40s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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