The Northeast Weather Blog...

October Nor'easter???

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 1:53 AM GMT on October 12, 2009

I must say this has to be one of my favorite Octobers in the last few years. I took one of my typical hikes Sunday afternoon up on the trail that strattles the summit of Blue Mountain near Linglestown for a few miles to the power line clearing/hawk migration viewing location. Fall leaves were looking pretty nice with oaks even beginning to show some yellow color change. Colors are about a week ahead of schedule with maples reaching their peak here in the Lower Susquehanna Vally by the end of this coming week. Then this evening my church held a nice fall festival function with bonfires, hayrides, and overall just a nice community get together. While I was sitting their chit-chatting with all the locals at the bonfire on this clear and cool October night, it just is that great feeling you get that everything is great. To me an open fire with stars in the sky in an open field is so relaxing, I just can never see myself ever living in a city. This Sunday evening sure was beautiful with the temperature already down in the mid 40s by 8pm with a wonderful sunset in the midst of Fall leaves. And looking ahead this wonderful cool weather pattern is going to continue. The weather pattern is indeed fascinating and I gather from many people it brings back memories of a typical Autumn with cool, breezy days and cold nights. Looking back at my daily weather journals I can definitely concur we have had our fair share of 80 and even a 90degree days in the last few Octobers, especially October 2007. Forecasting the weather is not just be able to analyze data from computer models and weather maps, but it is also necessary to be able recall past weather events/synoptic setups and apply them to present weather forecasting. This blog is going to take a look at the current weather pattern for the week ahead and take a look at a possible nor'easter setup towards the weekend, which in my opinion is foreshadowing what is yet to come this winter! I am going to try to do my best to recall other past October nor'easter and rain/snow events to summarize the scenarios present for the upcoming week.

Fig 1.1- (Courtesy of HPC) Looking across the current surface map a few features are evident including a large and expansive high pressure over the middle of the nation, a trough over 2/3rds of the continental United States, and an approaching low pressure towards the California coast.

Frost and freeze advisories/warnings are out for a large portion of the Northeast including parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is courtesy of a trough over the east coast with cool Canadian air funneling down with a high pressure to the west allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas in the northern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania will see an abrupt end to their growing season. As the week progresses a shortwave will progress through the eastern United States later on Monday through Tuesday enhancing the cold air and amplifying the jet stream with a ridge in west/trough in east orientation. This is where the forecast takes a turn to a more interesting approach which may prove as a good test for some of us to renew our coastal storm forecasting skills (that would be me hahaha). In any case it appears several scenarios will present themeselves with interesting thermal progressions that may allow for some wrap-around rain/snow showers in northern Pennsylvania.

Before we look at the current synoptic setup, lets review a few past October nor'easter events. The one of recent memory is the 28-29 October 2008 nor'easter special for northeastern Pennsylvania.

Fig. 2.1- (Courtesy of NWS BGM) This is a 12z October 28 surface map indicating a 992mb low off the New Jersey coast.

The event featured a negatively tilted trough under a deep amplified jet allowing a low pressure to move up along the New Jersey coast north through the Connecticut Valley up through Canada. Now keep in mind being this was the very end of October, there was a bit more cold air to present itself. Bufkit profiles indicating winds of 50-60mph a few thousand feet aloft allowed for some strong winds to occur across eastern Pennsylvania. Across the higher elevations coupled with H85s near (-4)-(-6) blizzard conditions occurred resulting in some areas of 2ft of snow from Luzerne up through Wayne Counties.

Halloween seems to be a common time for nor'easters to strike the eastern seaboard. Another similar low track occurred in 2005 on October 24-25 when remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Wilma allowed moisture to stream along the negatively orientated trough with an upper level low over the Great Lakes. This setup allowed for moderate snowfall totals to occur over the mountains of Pennsylvania with rainfall for elevations below 1900ft. As cooler air funneled in from the northwest courtesy of the upper level low, the complex synoptic setup featured up to 10inches over the ridges of the Laurel Highlands up through the north central mountains.

Fig 3.1- (Courtesy of the NWS CTP) This surface map shows the 984mb primary low off of Long Island coast with the moisture from the water vapor loop indicating heavy precipitation over Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for much of eastern Pennsylvania totaled over 1-2inches.

Now once again what is important to observe in these short case studies is the date of the events. Many nor'easters in October are featured in the later half of the month. Remember the perfect storm in 1991, again featured at the very end of the month. Archives prove October has featured some very harsh nor'easters and cold Outbreaks as it is a transition month. The month is very similar to April or May with complex storm systems across the mid section of the Nation and sharp temperature contrasts from cold fronts and ridge orientations. So why all of this talk about nor'easters? Well the end of the week poses a few interesting possibilities.

Interesting 500mb initiations from models for the end of this week as a large -EPO fueled ridge will allow for a large ridge across the west coast.

Fig. 4.1- (Courtesy of Raleighwx Models) Current GFS predictions indicate the negative EPO to last through the end of this week before it rises to positive for a short time before once again transitioning negative by the end of the month. A negative EPO and positive PNA are typical for a western United States ridge formation.

Looking at the NAO, which is a general rule of thumb with the AO for eastern troughing events. A decent theory is the idea of a progression from an extended negative NAO to a positive NAO or an extended positive NAO to a negative NAO is usually coupled with a large east coast storm.

Fig 5.1- (Courtesy of CPC) Once again note the transition from negative to positive occuring around the 15-17th of October, which is the exact period for the possibilities of a coastal storm.

Current 10/11/09 18UTC GFS took an interesting approach for the low pressure and is more in line with 0UTC ECMWF guidance. Model guidance has generally been extremely poor for the last few weeks so this end of the week system can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am going to lay out the scenarios is pose my highest threat scenario. As the week progresses I will update through comments on the possibility. For all we know this system may not even exist by Thursday. But generally this a decent model consensus on a general progression as followed...

06UTC Friday...

Generally a low pressure tracks across the Tennessee Valley as moisture moves up from the south from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a large expansive western ridge with orient an approaching trough from the Great Lakes to cause colder air to funnel into the system.

18UTC Friday...

Transfer from primary low to coastal low off Virginia coastline will allow for double barrel low to continue to produce heavy precipitation over the Middle Atlantic. While H85s are below 0C for much of Pennsylvania, that does not mean snow. I will talk more about this later. Also take note of the deformation band axis over the I-80 corridor in Pennsylvania.

06UTC Saturday...

Finally the low pressure begins to weaken and move to the northeast over the region with some residual rain/snow showers over western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.

So it appears the setup is isentropic lift allowing for some rain to start towards Thursday along a quasi-stationary boundary over the Middle Atlantic. Then a low pressure will transition from across the Tennessee Valley and reform along the eastern seaboard tracking towards 40/70 benchmark and on northeastward. Meanwhile high pressure will be over southern Canada trying to funnel in marginally cold air to the rear northwest flank of the system. Thermal layers from GFS bufkit data indicate most of the Middle Atlantic to range from 1000-500mb thickness around 541-549dam, which especially in October is not cold enough for snow even in the highest of elevations. It generally looks like a rain event for most areas for a large portion of the event which may feature some moderate to heavy rain.

12z ECMWF indicates a similar forecast to the 18z GFS, except the track is a bit closer to the coast near KACY. As the system wraps up is when the potential for snow flakes exists as cold air rushes into the back-end of the system with the potential for some snow over the higher elevations especially towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Latest ECMWF, GGEM, GFS consensus definitely is leaning towards H85s well below 0C with 540dam thickness as far south as Mason-Dixon line. I think for this event a few things are possible. For one I have noticed a slight south trend in model data within the past few days. Previous runs, especially of the GFS had an over-amplifyied 992mb low up the east coast under a negatively tilted trough with cold air rushing down the spine of the Appalachians. Also I would like to see the high pressure about 5mb stronger to reinforce blocking and cold air into the system. The pressure gradient is relatively tight and the easterly flow coupled with high historical astronomical tides this year may pose for a large coastal erosion and flooding threat with 40-45mph gusts along the coast. So in conclusion it appears a moderate to high threat of a coastal storm is likely towards Thursday and Friday. I think the GFS is a bit slow in the lows progression. I think as model runs progress the actual track may be a bit farther to the south and slightly weaker. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over the Middle Atlantic in this time frame with breezy conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion is extremely likely along the Chesapeake coastline and Atlantic Ocean. Depending on wet bulb heights and precipitation intensity, some snow may mix in on the rain towards the end of the system towards Friday night as a deep trough moves over the region. Though this time of year I would like to see H85s a bit colder. Although a good rule of thumb of October snows is usually you will only be able to predict if one will see snow flakes hours before the event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week. The general pattern regime for this week is steady below normal temperatures. This is an exciting pattern that may be setting up for the winter. My call for a moderate El Nino looks set with an westerly wind burst really causing SSTs to rise again towards Nino region 3.4. The PDO is also rising, which is more good news. As long as we do not get a sudden switch, I think it is likely many areas see their first snowflakes at or before Thanksgiving.

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18

Autumn's festival of colors... (Blizzard92)

Leaves beginning to really show along Blue Mountain near Harrisburg at the top with an elevation around 1230ft.

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501. hurigo 9:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Hi Ya'll. 73 and clear and calm wind here now. What a beautiful day. I regret missing that meteor shower overnight (but thanks for the notice Patch). Blizz, sorry to hear that your body's been hit by the changing weather. Hope you are feeling better. Local Mets are saying there may be some storms on Saturday, greater chances to the north. Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 98 Comments: 6618

502. TheRasberryPatch 11:58 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
changes? where? my lowest reading so far has been 33.3F. the kids farm at Milton Hershey has a patch where it looks like goose neck squash is growing or was growing. all the leaves have turne black probably from a freeze of the leaves Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

503. Zachary Labe 12:39 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
hurigo- I am, thanks! These dramatic temperature swings are not aiding in the illness prevention up here in the north. TheRasberryPatch- Flowers are brown towards central and northern Dauphin County with fall leaves peaking in 7-10 days. Low of 29 here with a low of 25 near Halifax. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

504. TheRasberryPatch 1:28 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
what is surprising Blizz is usually by now we have at least a couple of nights with hard freezes of temps around 24 or 25. but not this year Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

505. Zachary Labe 2:04 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Too much cold air advection. These troughs have been some anomalous that the northwest flow has too be strong enough to produce the near -20 high temperature departures we had a few days ago. This causes the lack of high pressure to allow for radiational cooling. By the way looking into long term I think we are entering and will be a warmer than normal weather pattern through the end of the month. Meanwhile the cold air over the arctic will reload. There is only so much cold available in October, this is not December. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

506. originalLT 4:21 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
Wed. I had broken clouds that eventually cleared up by mid afternoon, high was 66.8F, morning low was43.7F. Oh, not to "CHIRP" on this too much, but I still have "my" crickets outside, quite a number still active tonight as the temp. was above 50F up untill an hour ago. So the one 32F night has not, as of yet, killed them off. Still nice to here them, a piece of summer still hanging on! Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

507. originalLT 4:23 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
Correction, high was 68.8F . Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

508. TheRasberryPatch 11:44 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
As you said Blizz this is October. even November can have some warm days. you know me i always have a time i recall - there was a Thanksgiving back in the early 80's, i think. I was in Ocean City, MD and the temps got in the upper 80's for a few days. it just didn't seem like Thanksgiving. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

509. TheRasberryPatch 3:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
I just got back from Risser's farm. I was impressed with their selection of home grown vegetables. not badly priced. last year i went there in the summer and found most stuff so expensive. btw - i bought a crock over the summer and am in the process of making sauerkraut. Mmmmmmmm. i read up on it and supposedly lactic acid fermentation of vegetables is supposed to be one of the healthiest things to have in your diet. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

510. originalLT 4:05 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Sounds good Patch, makes me want a hot-dog with mustard and saurkraut for lunch! Here, its beautiful, after morning cloudiness, it cleared by 10am, now it is 68F SW wind 8-12mph, Baro 1015mb, falling slowly. Really nice out. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

511. Zachary Labe 8:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- I was down there this the other week when I was in your area. Last year I bought my fall things there and found the prices to be outrageous. This year I only stopped by for a large pumpkin and got the rest of my things elsewhere. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

512. NEwxguy 8:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
woohoo!!! we finally hit 70 up here,was wondering if we would ever see again until spring. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13275

513. TheRasberryPatch 8:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Blizz - i was surprised with the prices and not being so much. like the home grown cabbage was 0.39 cents/lb. thats not too bad. beets weren't badly priced either. its the first time i have been there since summer 08. corn at that time was like 4.50/dozen. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

514. Zachary Labe 11:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Nice evening out there. The fall colors have really popped with the recent sunshine and warmer temperatures. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

515. originalLT 1:04 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Beautiful day, high was 74.3F low about 49F, mostly sunny after morning clouds, P. cloudy now , baro 1012mb, 62.7F, calm wind. The local mets say high friday will be only 50-55F, ouch! Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

516. Zachary Labe 1:05 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
originalLT- I do not think these dramatic temperature swings are helping the flu situation, lol. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

517. originalLT 1:07 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Speaking of illness, how are you feeling Blizz, any better with your allergies? Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

518. Zachary Labe 1:08 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
originalLT- Much better, thanks. Talk about irony, all the leaves are now falling and my allergies improve, ha. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

519. upweatherdog 1:15 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Hi Blizzard. I just looked at the monthly precipitation departure map of the U.S, and the areas of above average precipitation have been mainly located over the Great Lakes and southern Mississippi Valley, just like I forecasted in my Fall-Winter outlook. So far, my forecast is pretty accurate! Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1365

520. Zachary Labe 1:30 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
upweatherdog- Good luck with the snow by the way. Hopefully there will not be too much WAA. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

521. upweatherdog 1:32 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
The latest 18utc GFS data has really backed down on the WAA strenght, and keeps the column around freezing with heavy QPF over my area, which would lead to a 6 to 10 inch snowfall. Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1365

522. Zachary Labe 1:36 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
upweatherdog- Remember to use a 5:1 snow ratio for this time of year and especially looking at thermal profiles for this situation. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

523. upweatherdog 1:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92: upweatherdog- Remember to use a 5:1 snow ratio for this time of year and especially looking at thermal profiles for this situation. True, however most of the column will be around 32F which supports a 10/1 snow ratio, except for the boundry layer. However, any mesoscale cold pockets could keep 10/1 snow ratios at the surface. Only time will tell. Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1365

524. Zachary Labe 1:50 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
upweatherdog- I doubt it, this time of year especially without elevation for most locations in semi-marginal situation a 5:1 or 7:1 ratio is a much safer bet. Always better to ease on the side of caution in October for most all locations outside the Rocky Mountains. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

525. upweatherdog 1:52 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92: upweatherdog- I doubt it, this time of year especially without elevation for most locations in semi-marginal situation a 5:1 or 7:1 ratio is a much safer bet. Always better to ease on the side of caution in October for most all locations outside the Rocky Mountains. Right now I'm using a 5/1 snow to water ratio on Friday becoming 10/1 Friday night and Saturday morning. Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1365

526. Zachary Labe 7:19 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
.01inches of rain here today. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

527. originalLT 7:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Hi Blizz, temps about 25 degrees colder today than yesterday at this same time. 49F now East wind 5-10 mph. Baro 1022mb. No rain here so far, just cloudy. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

528. lawntonlookers 7:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
We had a slight drizel in Lawnton this afternoon, but it looks like more this evening. I guess this iw what was left over from Rick. I will check back in in the AM. Have a good evening Blizz. Any football tonight? Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

529. TheRasberryPatch 7:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
nothing measureable yet. i closed up my pool. i think that is why i haven't had freezing temps. hahaha Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

530. Mason803 8:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
0.11" here Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

531. Zachary Labe 10:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
.35inches of rain now currently. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

532. TheRasberryPatch 11:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
0.18" so far with rain coming down Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

533. originalLT 11:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Yeah, Blizz, I see you are under a pretty good batch of rain now, the way its moving, SW to NE, looks like it may slide by to my NW, maybe.Tough to see if it has enough eastward motion to get me. I guess I'll know for sure in a few hours. Of course if the whole area expands in coverage I'll definitly get rain tonight. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

534. weathergeek5 11:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Even though my post will not be weather related I want to shout it from the rooftops that I was accepted to LAW SCHOOL!!!!!!!! My hobby is the weather. But I hate math so being a full fledged meteorologist is not for me. I start on January 11 th so starting then if you do not see me on here as much you will know where I will be. I will still be working full time but instead of completing my Juris Doctorate in 3 years it will take me 4 years to complete it. Then after that I will have the joy of taking PA and De's state bar exams. Tbis site will have the weather nut legal shark. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

535. Zachary Labe 11:22 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
weathergeek5- Congratulations!!! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

536. weathergeek5 11:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
But it is lot of sacrifice and hard work ahead. I am a bit scared now Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

537. Mason803 11:42 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
up to .62" of rain. steady light rain currently Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

538. TheRasberryPatch 1:14 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Congratulations weathergeek5 0.31" Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

539. originalLT 1:21 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Congrats Weathergeek5, its natural to be scared, its a big step. Just work hard and you'll make it. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

540. originalLT 1:30 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
It seems the radar elements are moving mor ENE now which means I'm gonna get wet. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

541. weathergeek5 1:44 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Quoting weathergeek5: Even though my post will not be weather related I want to shout it from the rooftops that I was accepted to LAW SCHOOL!!!!!!!! My hobby is the weather. But I hate math so being a full fledged meteorologist is not for me. I start on January 11 th so starting then if you do not see me on here as much you will know where I will be. I will still be working full time but instead of completing my Juris Doctorate in 3 years it will take me 4 years to complete it. Then after that I will have the joy of taking PA and De's state bar exams. Tbis site will have the weather nut legal shark. I wonder if I will have any snow days???? Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

542. Zachary Labe 11:00 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
1.22inches of rain here. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

543. weathergeek5 11:04 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
Temps rose throughout the night. It is now 64 here. Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

544. Zachary Labe 11:19 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
weathergeek5- Yep, the warm front rose throughout the region. The dirty warm sector may allow for a few stronger thunderstorms to develop near the Delmarva later today. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 255 Comments: 14363

545. weathergeek5 11:26 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
It seems that this is a normal fall. What I mean is we have the cold spells then a few warmer days then back to cool fall weather. Here is the near term from my NWS: NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE WRF-NMM HAD A BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE GFS AT 00Z AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB. THE FLOW AT 500MB DID NOT LOOK BACKED ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO OUR S AND MAY BE THE REASON THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO COME FLYING IN FASTER THAN THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM. WE WILL THUS WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE LATTER FOR THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD BEFORE INCLUDING SOME GFS INFO IN LATER PERIODS. NEVER A GOOD SIGN WHEN DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S IN LATE OCTOBER. LATER TODAY WE MAY FIND OUT WHY. THE WARM FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING SOME HEADWAY THROUGH OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH. AN INCREASING LLJ FCST TO EXCEED 50KTS WILL HELP MAKE IT HAVE LESS RESISTANCE THAN NORMAL CLEARING OUR CWA. PRECIPITATION TO OUR W ALREADY HAS A "CONVECTIVE" LOOK TO IT. THE BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM FOR TODAY IS WHAT THEY DO WITH THE NC CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A SHORT WAVE IN ALABAMA AND ADVECTS IT THROUGH OUR CWA BLOSSOMING THE CONVECTION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAN RGEM AND THE WRF-NMM DO NOT AND BACK IT FARTHER TO THE WEST. AT LEAST BASED ON THE 00Z INITIALIZATION THIS LOOKED MORE LOGICAL AS THE 500MB FLOW ON THE GFS DID NOT APPEAR BACKED ENOUGH. THUS ITS LLJ IS FARTHER EAST BY 18Z. INFERRING THE PREV ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT THE SLOWER WRF-NMM PLACEMENT. LASTLY THE GFS IS SHOWING FCST MID LVL QVEC DIVERGENCE THIS AFTN IN DE AND NJ AND HAS ITS CONCENTRATED CONVERGENCE STILL IN PA. THUS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA, THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A PCPN BREAK TODAY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS AS WE WAIT FOR THE CDFNT TO APPROACH. WE WILL REACH THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE, SO WE DID NOT WANT TO PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSRA OCCURRING. WE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE FCST 925MB AND 850MB STABILITY INDICES AND THEN MOVED IT ACROSS OUR CWA THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THE PRECIPITATION BREAK SOLUTION WILL ENHANCE OUR CHANCES. THIS SHOULD GIVE US SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE WHICH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE. THE WRF-NMM SFC DEW POINT PROJECTIONS ARE TOO HIGH. EVEN SO, THE GFS HAS SOME SFC BASED CAPE FCST FOR NJ AND DE AND WITH EVENTS LIKE THIS, IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE MUCH WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SFC FCST TO BE 50 TO 60KTS FOR THEM TO MIX DOWN. OFTEN ITS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OR THE NARROW CFRB THAT BECOMES THE FORCE THAT MIXES THE WINDS DOWNWARD. PRECEDING THE FRONT THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2K AND FCST SHEAR OF ABOUT 50KTS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO IMPLY SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STORMS IF THEY CAN BE DISCRETE. WITH THE FORMER WE MIGHT CATCH A BREAK IF IT COINCIDES WITH THE FNT AS IT SHOULD NOT PASS THROUGH OUR CWA TIL THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE HIER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS PASS A LINE OF TSRAS THRU THE DELAWARE VALLEY AT 23Z. WE WILL CARRY ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR ZONES, GRIDS AND HWO. THERE IS ALSO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY WELL AS IT LOOKS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING TO OUR W AND SW. BUT PWATS ARE RUNNING GREATER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST WEEK AFTER NOR`EASTER NUMBER TWO WENT OFFSHORE AND PCPN AMTS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT BEEN ROBUST. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT UNLESS THERE IS TRAINING THIS IS MORE OF AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVY TYPE EVENT VS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BECAUSE OF ABOVE EITHER AN OUTRIGHT WARMER NAM MOS OR A COMPROMISE NAM MOS/GFS MOS COMPROMISE NORTH LOOKS BETTER THAN GFS MOS ITSELF. -- End Changed Discussion -- Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

546. jthal57 11:32 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
.52" so far here

547. TheRasberryPatch 11:39 AM GMT on October 24, 2009
0.62" so far temp is 66F winds out of SSE Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

548. Mason803 1:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
1.19" of rain temp 66 wind south @ 10 w/ gust to 22 Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

549. lawntonlookers 1:46 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
Winds this morning are light at the surface, but pretty strong at 3000 ft. somewhere around 50 K Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

550. weathergeek5 1:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
This program is great I am watching it now: http://www.hulu.com/watch/104087/national-geographic-specials-storm-of-the-century Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729

551. TheRasberryPatch 1:57 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
looks like a big blob of raining heading our way very soon Blizz. what do you think is the forecast for the weekend Blizz Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5715

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperature:	73.1 °F
Dew Point:	66.2 °F
Humidity:	79%
Wind:	Calm
Wind Gust:	0.0 mph
Updated: 9:34 PM EDT on June 16, 2013 Station History