The cool, crisp evenings of Fall...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:04 AM GMT on October 04, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 10/03)
Good evening!!! Today I want to look at an interesting concept in the meteorological field, averages. We use the term average for granted every day, not only just weather enthusiasts but also the average Joe. An average is a mean total taken from a set of data added together and divided by the amount of data taken. This gives you the mean, or average total from that data pool and it usually comes out to the mode, or most common data total. But really what is average? Average is basically taking extremes and putting them together to get your mean. So when someone says well the average high for October 3 is 69degrees in Harrisburg, looking back on past data most of the time it really was not 69 and in fact highs ranged from either side of the 69 in two polar opposites. Average is a term I use, but quite dislike, because in weather nothing is average. There will never be a single period of weather exactly the same as one previous. And in many locations the weather changes so quickly, nothing is average. For instance if someone asked what an average Fall is like in Washington, DC average I suppose is subject to one's opinion. Statistical analysis is an interesting concept which tends to abuse the term average. Looking back through statistics of seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg we see very few years that come exactly at "average" of 36inches. Most seasons are actually below the 36inches with a few anomalies such as a few winters with 80inches. This is similar to most locations actually. So once again the term average does not really prove accurate when looking for pure accuracy. Most meteorologists would argue that there is not any averages in weather; it is all just unique, but yet weather uses averages more than many fields. This brings up the idea of correlations, which again is all too familiar in the weather field. We could say that -NAOs in October correlate to warmer than normal winters, but yet this is not nearly always the case. This section is sort of going to set the stage for my blog below especially in the winter portion and long term portion as I mention correlations. But you have to remember a correlation is not always accurate and there will always be outliers. Statistics are a large part of the meteorological field with correlations and averages, but correlations do not write a forecast like most people assume. A forecast is generally a large inexact equation which always equals a different solution. In any case next time you hear the term average low for the day is "X" ask yourself what really is average.

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 10/03)
The cold front has passed through the entire region sparking a few rain showers and thunderstorms currently, Saturday night. Sunday the upper level trough will be over the region, with a 1008mb upper level low spinning over southern Canada. H85s will drop below 8C for the entire Middle Atlantic Sunday giving way to slightly below normal temperatures. Overnight vertical moisture profiles do show the potential for fog Sunday morning for areas especially across the Delmarva up through eastern Pennsylvania, but fog will be patchy and likely limited to visibilities around 1mile. After cool overnight radiational cooling, temperatures will swing upwards during the day under partly sunny skies for most of Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania courtesy of a westerly downsloping component. But across northern Pennsylvania a weak ripple in the jet will allow for a few lake effect rain showers throughout the day with a west-northwest flow aloft and a westerly flow at the surface. Highs will be cool across northern Pennsylvania under an alto-stratus deck with occasional rain squalls. QPF amounts generally will be light. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania with cloudy skies, highs in mid 60s for the rest of Pennsylvania, with upper 60s to lower 70s for the Philadelphia metro area and most of Maryland and Delaware. The upper level low will begin to progress northeast by Sunday evening with clearing across the entire Middle Atlantic from south to north. Radiational cooling will allow for very chilly temperatures Sunday night as dewpoints will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s over Pennsylvania to low 50s over Maryland and Delaware. With clear skies and light winds cool air will sink in the valleys with the warm air residual layer forming aloft. Lows will range from upper 30s across the northern tier New York/Pennsylvania border counties to mid 40s over the southern portions of Pennsylvania to near 50 over the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Across western Maryland and northern Maryland lows will be in the low to mid 40s with low 50s over extreme southern Maryland with upper 40s over Delaware to 50degrees. High pressure looks to remain in control for Monday after some ground radiation morning fog burning off by 830am in the deep river valleys. Ground fog season is coming to a close as finally water temperatures are beginning to cool closer to air temperature during lows along for a non-existent extreme land/water temperature contrast overnight. Anyways Monday a few alto-cumulus are possible over the lake effect belts near Erie and Bradford through Garret County, Maryland but for the most part sunshine will prevail over the region for a nice day. Highs will continue to average slightly below normal with highs in the lower 60s for northern Pennsylvania and mid 60s for most other areas in Pennsylvania and western/northern Maryland. Southern Maryland through Delaware and the Philadelphia area will see high in the upper 60s. Slightly drier air will advect into the region for a very cold Monday night. Once again, low dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, calm winds, and clear skies will promote dramatic nocturnal temperature swings downward starting at sunset as the winds decouple. It looks like another potential for frost over northern Pennsylvania with lows ranging from the low 30s to mid 30s. The areas at highest threat will be around Bradford. Across central and southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia lows will range from the low 40s to upper 30s with lows similar to those numbers found for northern Maryland. Across Garret County and the Potomac Highlands in Maryland, lows may be in the mid 30s with the threat of light frost possible. Lows for areas through the Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor will be in the mid 40s to upper 40s. After some patchy radiational fog, Tuesday will feature increasing clouds ahead of the next cold front and disturbance. Generally the day looks partly cloudy for most areas with a lowering cloud deck especially for southwestern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for highs ranging from the low 60s over northern areas to near 70 across the Washington DC metropolitan region. Pittsburgh will also see slightly warmer temperatures under the southwest flow ahead of the front with high perhaps in the lower 70s. Clouds will be thickening over much of the western half of the Middle Atlantic by Tuesday evening as a cold front approaches with an upper level low moving through the Great Lakes. H85s will rise briefly to 11C over the region for a milder night Tuesday than the past few nights. Lows will remain relatively uniform over the region ranging in the 50s with clouds.

Weak frontogenisis and better dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic will allow for meager QPF around .25inches to only a trace as the front passes through early Wednesday. Temperatures will only slightly rise throughout the day Wednesday once the front passes through. The highest chance of measurable rainfall is over northwestern Pennsylvania with chances of precipitation dwindling as one moves south and east. This is an all too common theme of the past two weeks, and it will continue. Even some heavier rain is possible over New England. Highs Wednesday will be near seasonal levels ranging from lower 70s over Maryland and the Delmarva along with southern Pennsylvania to the mid 60s over northern Pennsylvania. A few mid 70s may also even be possible in the larger cities over southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast will occur throughout the day allowing dewpoints to fall also. Wednesday will feature clear skies over Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania with clouds over northern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands courtesy of the cold air advection/northwest flow. H85s will drop back below 8C by late Wednesday evening. Radiational cooling will allow for chilly temperatures once again over Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware ranging from low 40s to low 50s depending on location. High pressure moves in control for Thursday for the region with the influence of the upper level trough. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s over Pennsylvania and western Maryland, to mid 60s to upper 60s over Delaware and Maryland. Sunshine will prevail over the region. Thursday night will also feature radiational cooling conditions combined with low dewpoints, so this will allow for well below normal lows. Once again a frost potential is possible for western Maryland and northern Pennsylvania perhaps into the Poconos. Lows will range from low 30s near Bradford to upper 40s in Philadelphia. Lows over Maryland will range from the upper 30s near Deep Creek to low 50s in Washington DC. Over Delaware lows will be pretty uniform with lows along the coast in the lower 50s to upper 40s over northern Delaware. Friday looks to be once again a nice day with sunshine and high pressure in control under the influence of a weak trough. Temperatures look seasonable to slightly below normal in the upper 50s to lower 70s near Washington DC. A few clouds will approach the region from the west, with thick clouds by evening as another front approaches the region. See more details on the Columbus Day weekend forecast in the "long term" section.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Forecast"(Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon Counties)(Updated 10/03)
The coming week looks pretty typical of October with slightly below normal temperatures all week and several frontal passages as wave lengths remain shorter in October allowing for more transient weather patterns. Sunday morning may allow for some patchy fog to form in the Lower Susquehanna Valley especially towards eastern York County in southern Lancaster County where there remains some residual moisture. Those places may see some locally dense fog down below .25miles. Fog should burn off by 830/9am. After a cool morning temperatures will rise to slightly below normal highs ranging from the mid 60s over the elevations above 900ft to upper 60s over the southern portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley towards Lancaster County. Sunshine will prevail most of the day with high pressure in control and a downsloping westerly wind. Clear skies and calm winds will allow for a chilly night Sunday night as dewpoints remain quite dry in the upper 40s. Lows will range from the low 40s over northern Dauphin County around Halifax to Williamstown to Ono in Lebanon County and also in Perry County from Newport on westward. Lows elsewhere will be in the mid 40s. Monday looks to be a generally nice day with brilliant sunshine after patchy morning radiation fog across Franklin and Adams Counties along the South Mountain foothills. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal with highs in the mid 60s for the entire area with a few lower 60s over the higher elevations in Adams, Franklin, Perry, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties. Monday night will feature a very chilly night; one of the coldest of the season. With calm winds, clear skies, and dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s, low temperatures will fall quickly overnight at the rate of 2-5degrees/hour. Lows will drop into the upper 30s for areas in favorable radiating locations such as central York County, the foothills of South Mountain in Adams County, Amberson Valley in Franklin County, the ridge valleys in Dauphin and Lebanon Counties, and Perry County. Areas in the higher elevations and over urban heat island effect locations such as central Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster lows will be more manageable in the low to mid 40s. I would not be surprised to hear of a very light frost across far northern Dauphin County just east of Millersburg or across Amberson Valley in northern Franklin County. Keep in mind frosts can form from 2m lows in the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday will feature morning sunshine with increasing clouds throughout the day giving way to highs in the mid 60s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures again will be a few degrees below normal. By evening an alto-stratus deck will begin to dominate the valley. Tuesday night will feature milder temperatures than the few previous nights courtesy of cloud cover and a southwest flow. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which are a hair above normal.

For Wednesday temperatures will be near seasonable levels to slightly above normal under the southwest flow ahead of the front. Highs will range from the upper 60s for elevations above 1000ft to low 70s for most other locations. A mid 70 reading is possible for areas such as Lancaster. A few very early morning rain showers are possible, but amounts look very light and spotty with the better dynamics to our north and west. Sunshine will begin to peak out later in the day. By evening skies will begin to clear from west to east with falling temperatures as the front moves through with another upper level trough. Wednesday night will be cool as winds decouple with lows in the upper 40s for most of the region, which is right around normal for this time of year. Some guidance suggests Wednesday is the best chance at above normal temperatures in the 14-16 day time frame. Thursday looks nice with high pressure in control and brilliant sunshine with highs slightly below normal in the mid 60s for most areas with a few upper 60s near Lancaster and downtown York. With low dewpoints once again, Thursday night will be very cool and lows will fall to similar readings as Monday night with upper 30s to lower 40s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will rebound for the daytime hours of Friday and any patchy radiation fog will burn off by 830am. Sunshine will prevail for the morning before an increase in clouds ahead of another cold front. Once again though the better dynamics remain north of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Highs Friday will be slightly below normal again in the low to mid 60s. Average highs this time of year are in the upper 60s to 70. On a side note I find it comical I contradict myself mentioning averages for all the forecasts despite my rant about the term average in my afternoon thoughts section. Anyways for more details on the weekend forecast see the long term section below. In general a nice, cool Fall weekend is in store for the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

"Current Lower Susquehanna Valley Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast Marine and Boating Forecast"(Maryland and Delaware Coastal Forecast)(Updated 10/03)
It looks like a relatively quiet marine and boating weather week is in store for the Chesapeake Bay basin and the Atlantic coast along Delaware and Maryland. To start the week a weak secondary low over the Delmarva will move off the coast in response to the primary upper level low off the Great Lakes transitioning northeast through Ontario and Quebec. As the flow turns from southeasterly, seas will lower less than 5ft wave lengths along the coast and tidal levels in the Chesapeake will return to normal. A northwest flow will prevail Sunday with a slightly tightened pressure gradient transferring 20-30knot winds to the surface over the open water. Small craft advisory conditions are possible through Sunday evening with some gusty winds, but brilliant sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area this week, but high pressure will prevail Monday with sunshine and cooler Fall-like temperatures. Towards Tuesday the flow will turn a bit more southerly allowing for slightly warmer air and some weak channeling of water along the southern Chesapeake. But conditions will quickly change by Wednesday as another cold front moves through with cold air advection to follow with another tightened pressure gradient with 25knot small craft advisory threshold winds over much of the local waterways through Wednesday night. Once again high pressure will move in from the south Thursday through Friday with much cooler air, but calmer winds. Another cold front will approach the region towards the weekend with similar conditions ahead and after the frontal passage. Precipitation chances this week remain relatively slim as weak forcing of the fronts courtesy of the extended and trailing upper level lows keeps most of the precipitation dying off as they approach the Middle Atlantic. Any QPF through the week would likely be Tuesday night through Wednesday or Friday night, but totals would likely be less than a tenth of an inch. In general the transient pattern this week will be very reminiscent of typical cool Fall conditions. Happy sailing!!!

"Current Atlantic Coast Forecast Wave Heights and Chesapeake Bay Forecast Wind Direction/Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Updates on Winter Predictions" (Updated 10/03)
It was nice to see some signs of winter this week across the United States with currently many winter storm advisories and warnings being issued for the Rockies as a deep trough and low pressure will correlate to heavy mountain snowfall. But also recently across New England snowfall occurred with the second earliest on record 3inch snowfall for Mt. Mansfield in Vermont. Mount Washington also record 1.1inches with temperatures dropping into the upper teens. I imagine it looked wonderful with the fall foliage lined against the snow-white capped mountains of the Green, White, and Adirondack Mountains. This week my focus was analyzing the Pacific as we really have a pretty ideal Pacific for east coast troughing this week through the middle of October. A giant negative EPO ridge will move across the western United States towards next week along with a positive PNA. Also we are finally starting to see signs of the El Nino gaining a bit more footing as the SOI readings are beginning to show weaker positive daily reports. The westerly wind burst and Kelvin wave looks to have established some warmer SSTs over Nino regions 4 and 3.4 to remain relatively consistent this past week despite some impressive cooling over region 1 and 2. Signs are growing of the more favorable +AMM and +QBO towards November. Also the PDO still appears to be negative with a few cold pockets in the Gulf of Alaska vicinity, but it will not be nearly as negative as the last few winters and may perhaps leaving the negative PDO cycle. Statistics and correlations show that during +ENSO years a positive PNA may correlate to a below normal temperature winter, this has occurred on several occasions. But looking at the Atlantic, despite it being a favorable negative and west-based NAO through midmonth statistics prove that negative NAOs correlate to a switch to a positive NAO during winter. And then on the other hand colder than normal Octobers correlate to below normal temperature winters in the east. I emphasize these correlations, because what I have read this week is people putting too much emphasize on these correlations. Several select years including several 60s winters and the winter of 76-77 and 77-78 kept the negative NAO from October through the entire winter. Right now the pattern is pretty great looking at it from a teleconnective perspective, and as we move through October signs of the winter pattern will appear. This year is very unusual, and as I keep mentioning, analogs are really quite difficult to find. I still see conflicting signs, but for now I am quite pleased with my winter forecast.

Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 10/03)
It is exciting is not, to see pumpkins lining the streets and Fall leaves canvassing local roadways. Fall foliage is going to be hitting the height across the northern parts of Pennsylvania as Fall foliage will be entering peak colors likely by the end of this week through the 15th. Maples are showing brilliant reds along the mountainsides especially across Sullivan County through Bradford, Susquehanna, Wayne, Lackawanna, McKean, Warren, Crawford, Potter, Tioga Mercer, and Erie counties. Red maples along with birch are showing brilliants yellows and reds especially for elevations above 1800ft. First frosts have occurred in many of these areas with upper 20s reported in Potter, Tioga, McKean, and Warren counties the other evening which has enhanced the breakdown of the green chlorophyll. Oaks are not showing too much color, although extremities are beginning to show yellows or rustic browns especially for the higher elevations. The next coming week is perfect for those long drives along scenic RT 6 across the northern parts of Pennsylvania through Alleghany National forecast, which is reporting wonderful colors including some yellows from oaks. Across the central third of Pennsylvania along and just south of the interstate 80 corridor, colors will be nearing peak within the next 6-14 days with hardwood sugar and red maple beginning to reach heightened color. The common theme of below normal temperatures through September and continuing into October has allowed for some earlier color in some areas especially across the higher elevations towards Clearfield and western Centre County, but also along the Poconos. Color is reported as excellent near famous state parks such as World's End State Park in the endless mountain region. The next two weekends look wonderful for a weekend stay in the Poconos to do some fall exploring near Bushkill Falls. Across the coal country of Schuylkill County birch and aspen are turning brilliant yellows and those trees should reach peak in the next seven days. Farther south in Pennsylvania the southeastern region near Philadelphia is still reporting patchy conditions as oaks dominate most of the southern portion of Pennsylvania's forests. Most maples though or ornamental trees and invasive species are showing some reds. Across the south-central region colors are a bit more prevalent with some color change across the South Mountain region up through the Blue Ridge. Once again oaks dominate the forests, so color will always be delayed likely to late October. Across the Laurel Highlands, high elevation has allowed for more color with areas near Johnstown being reported at 25% color change and should reach peak in the next 1-2 weeks. Across western Pennsylvania, conditions have been dry allowing for more plentiful color than some surrounding areas. It looks like a week or two to take a trip out to Shawnee State Park. Towards Maryland, western portions of the state along and western of the Cumberland Gap are showing near peak conditions especially towards Garret County with the higher elevations. Frosts have been recorded in this areas enhancing color. Across the rest of Maryland and through Delaware color conditions are similar to southeastern Pennsylvania with colors being patchy courtesy of the abundance of late turning oaks. Overall color should be enhanced this week as days will be sunny with cooler than normal temperatures followed by very chilly nights. A few frosts are possible across northern Pennsylvania Tuesday night and later in the week. Take a Sunday drive and few the beauty of Mother Nature at some of the fine state parks in the Middle Atlantic.

Fall Foliage Reports... Link

"Long Term Outlook" (7-14 Day Time Frame) (Updated 10/03)
Towards the Columbus Day weekend, the weather gets quite interesting. A strong cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley with steep lapse rates, courtesy of the -10 deviation temperatures behind the front. Current model guidance is suggesting a front passage around late Friday through early Saturday, but being so far away timing is a bit low confidence of a forecast at this point. In any case 12z 10/3/09 GFS was interesting show some Gulf moisture streaming up the Ohio Valley and forming some convection along the front in that region on Friday. Heightened winds aloft may even a pose a threat to strong thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley. But once again a 996mb upper level low lagging behind the front in the Great Lakes will tend to steal the dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic allowing the front to weaken in terms of precipitation. H85s then drop below 7C for much of the region on Saturday with cold air advection allowing for below normal temperatures. It remains uncertain how much QPF is possible over the Middle Atlantic, but for now it appears the front will be weakening as it approaches from the west. Saturday afternoon may be partly cloudy as the front moves out to sea. Cool Canadian air moves in for Sunday with well below normal temperatures as H85s drop below 0C for all of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. High pressure to our west looks to be in control, so Sunday should be nice but cool outside. The flow begins to turn more northwesterly later in the day Sunday allowing some lake effect precipitation in diurnal cumulus to advect over the region especially later in the day and towards Monday. For Columbus Day a few flakes cannot even be ruled out for elevations above 2100ft in northern Pennsylvania as air column samples will be partly below freezing. Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will occur for Columbus day over the Middle Atlantic, with downsloping allowing for some sunshine towards southeastern Pennsylvania, southern Maryland, and all of Delaware. Looking towards next week, temperatures look nearly 10-20degrees below normal over the region as the coldest air of the season moves over the region. 12z 10/03/09 ECMWF even shows early signs of lake effect possibilities towards New York State, there may even be some higher elevation snow in this time frame across New England perhaps a bit more widespread than the previous event. Today the ECMWF center even gave special access to 2m temperatures in this long range time frame from the 12z model run showing highs in the low 50s to 40s for many areas in this time frame with mid 50s towards Maryland and Delaware. In any case next week is looking well below normal with possible lake effect rain and daily alto-cumulus over much of the Middle Atlantic. It should not last too long with the (-2)-(-3) deviation trough as a modifying ridge moves over the region later in the week before another troughs move in. The pattern remains transient, but generally below normal temperature wise and near to below normal precipitation.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(October)(Updated 9/13)
This monthly outlook is going to be posted a bit early this year for October. I never issued a September forecast and now it is the middle of the month so I decided to forecast October instead of the last two weeks in September. Therefore this outlook is a bit lower than normal for confidence. As many probably could guess I am going with a colder than normal October. Long term GFS especially is consistent with trough formation over the east coast and an amplified western ridge. Latest ECMWF is also steadfast, but not amplified with weaker western ridge and a weaker trough, but they are still evident. Teleconnections are a bit more favorable also for a cool pattern across the east coast. It appears the PNA will be spiking highly positive towards October 1 with the NAO and AO more towards neutral. As far as precipitation it appears near normal precipitation is likely with a drier start to the month gradually becoming more active. If the cooler than normal October verifies historical odds definitely favor a colder than normal with quite a bit of snow for the upcoming winter. I guess all we can wish for is not another October 2008 which was extremely mild and again followed by a mild winter. Looking on a more global perspective there is a building dome of cold air over the Arctic towards Greenland and northern Canada. This cold air will continue to build and likely be a catalyst for bits of cold air to break off and surge to the United States with strong cold fronts.

Temperature- As I already mentioned I believe this month will feature cooler than normal temperatures will a general trough over the Middle Atlantic. I think areas north of I-80 will have the colder anomalies as occasional stalled fronts affect southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware with clouds and precipitation while highs to the north allow radiational cooling for northern Pennsylvania. I am going with a general (-1)-(-2) temperature anomaly for most areas with a generally (0)-(-.5) for the metros of Philadelphia and Washington DC. Frosts and freezes do look likely for most all locations this month with periods of colder than normal weather. Especially early in the month frosts may occur with a high pressure over the region and a trough.

Precipitation- Precipitation looks to be near normal for the month with a dry start to the month as a strong high pressure looks to be over much of the eastern United States in a general benign weather pattern. Towards the middle of the month and the end the active storm track should resume similarities to earlier in the month of September. The subtropical jet will feature periods of storms tracking up the east coast. As far as snowfall, most likely at some point in the month areas, in the lake effect snow belts of Maryland and Pennsylvania will see at least flurries. It is too early to tell whether any system like October 2009 will affect the region.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

Fall Reflections... (Blizzard92)
Colors are a bit more brilliant in northern Dauphin County than towards Harrisburg. Fishing Creek Valley has evident yellows, reds, and oranges.
Fall Reflections...

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196. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:03 PM GMT on October 15, 2009
Light accumulation Friday night in Carlisle? Will it be so?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
195. originalLT
12:30 AM GMT on October 12, 2009
Thanks Blizz for new blog coming out, anxious to see it , here right now its 48F, baro. 1026mb, wind calm, mostly clear.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
194. Zachary Labe
12:04 AM GMT on October 12, 2009
Down to 46.2degrees here. New blog should be out by 11pm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
193. weathergeek5
12:01 AM GMT on October 12, 2009
Temps are dropping now. It is down to 49 here. Scratch that it is 53 here. I was looking at the wrong number.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
192. TheDawnAwakening
10:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Blizzard, I wouldn't be surprised either as NAO stays negative at that time and the PNA goes positive.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
191. TheRasberryPatch
10:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
yes it was a beautiful day outside. i was enjoying the surroundings while golfing.

i believe that storm you guys are talking about that occured on a Sunday into Monday around Baltimore. we were off school all 5 days. we had a great time.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
190. Zachary Labe
4:41 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
What a beautiful day outside. Blue sky from here to Kalamazoo, literally.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
189. lawntonlookers
2:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Morning Blizz. Low of 41 around 7:30 this morning. That was quite a storm in Denver to postpond the Phillis Rockies game last night. It is suppose to get better for tonight, but it is still a late game.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
188. weathergeek5
2:51 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Quoting cchamp6:
Not sure if you guys are talking about the feb. blizzard of 78. Here in Ct. we were shut down for a week. I was 7 yrs. old and remember it like it was yesterday. And yes that makes me 38. I really think that storm is what made me love big snowstorms!


yeah that one.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
187. cchamp6
2:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Not sure if you guys are talking about the feb. blizzard of 78. Here in Ct. we were shut down for a week. I was 7 yrs. old and remember it like it was yesterday. And yes that makes me 38. I really think that storm is what made me love big snowstorms!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
186. originalLT
2:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Morning Blizz and all, yes I remember that blizzard, I was living in New rochelle NY, which is about 17 miles NE of NYC, we had about 20" and it was windy. It happened a month or so before I got married!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
185. weathergeek5
2:31 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
And here we go. I don't know why but I have been researching the winters of 1976-1977 and 1977-1978. That is why I asked the question about the 1978 blizzards. I remember that winter snow drifts going over the trailer that we lived in. Keep in mind I was 3 1/2 years old almost 4 then. Cant wait for the new blog.

On a side note when did you all first realize you were interested in the weather? Again I remember being glued to the window during a thunderstorm. I was scared but yet fascinated yelling "thunderstorm".
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
184. Zachary Labe
2:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Well I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at a nor'easter/coastal storm towards next weekend. My new blog will cover the pattern setup and the nor'easter scenarios for the weekend.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
183. weathergeek5
2:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
I knew there was the great lakes 1978 blizzard and the metropolitan one.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
182. Zachary Labe
1:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Good morning all and thanks for all your reports! Low of 36.5degrees here with some patchy frost and ground fog. Tonight should be a bit colder and the NWS looks to be issuing a frost advisory for most of Pennsylvania with freeze warnings in the north.

weathergeek5- The blizzard of 1978 was named the metropolitan blizzard as it mainly affected the I-95 corridor with very heavy snow. The westward extent of the snow did not go too far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
181. weathergeek5
1:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Hey Blizz:

Which one of the great blizzards of 1978 affected us here. How did it affect us in the Mid Atlantic?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
180. jthal57
12:51 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
35.2F here this morning Blizzard, Frost Adv. here for tonight/Mon.AM
179. TheRasberryPatch
11:56 AM GMT on October 11, 2009
a low of 39F this morning. a bit of ground fog up to 5 or so feet before sunrise
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
178. cchamp6
11:16 AM GMT on October 11, 2009
Good morning Blizz. Down to 28 here in northwest Connecticut this morning.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
177. weathergeek5
10:22 AM GMT on October 11, 2009
Temp is 42 degrees!

First mention of the s word in the NWS Mt Holly edition:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS.
THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS PCPN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE NEW ECMWF
KEEPS IT DRY LONGER WITH PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE FORECAST
GENERALLY HAS THE TREND CORRECT AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS, PCPN MAY NOT ARRIVE AS FAST AS THE MODELS INDICATE.

FOLLOWING PREVIOUS TRENDS, THE EXTENDED WITH SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALSO, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH LATE THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE PCPN TO BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH. EARLY
INDEED FOR SNOW IF IT HAPPENS. MODEL DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS FCST TEMPS.

-- End Changed Discussion --





Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
176. originalLT
4:01 AM GMT on October 11, 2009
Getting very chilly here now too, 44F, clear calm winds, Baro. 1021MB. Still heard a few crickets earlier tonight, but just had the dogs out and it was silent out there.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
175. Zachary Labe
2:10 AM GMT on October 11, 2009
weathergeek5- No, not really. Well the cold air over the northern plains is record breaking, but think of October as one of those transition months. It is very similar to an April type month. Large cold front with transient weather patterns and large temperature spreads are common. But the depth of this cold air outbreak is definitely not normal.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
174. weathergeek5
11:44 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Blizz is it unusual to have this spread of temperature differences across the nation in October?
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173. Zachary Labe
10:06 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
originalLT- Thanks! Temperatures beginning to cool off now.

TheRasberryPatch- Glad they had a nice time. The food their is absolutely wonderful and you can find just about anything from unusual things such as pumpkin funnel cakes to apple dacaries. It is impressively large, but the operation is run from smoothly with transportation from parking to festival. My soil is pretty wet here from nearly 1inch of rain so glad you were able to get things done.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
172. TheRasberryPatch
10:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
While i was out working in the yard and gardens, I sent my wife and kids and my mother to the Apple Festival you were at Blizz. They had a good time as well. They said it was huge and only saw about half of it. They brought back some apple cider and spiced cider as well as other stuff.

What a great day to be doing the work in the yard though. Not too cold and definetly not warm. no bugs to bother me, either.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
171. originalLT
9:55 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Sounds like fun! Glad you had a nice day. It turned mosly sunny here by 1:30 or so. was breezy earlier, but now calming down, west wind 5-8mph or less. Baro 1018mb and rising.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
170. Zachary Labe
9:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Well I had a great time today. Only in Pennsylvania is their an apple festival and john deere tractor square dancing, hahaha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
169. originalLT
3:04 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Good morning Blizz , The rain area kind of dissapated as it moved E, and the heavier rain did go to my N. I got 0.11"
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
168. TheRasberryPatch
2:35 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
thanks for the link Blizz.

it is a bit sad to see beautiful potted flowers that are still doing well to dump them in the compost. i realize it won't be much longer before the cold kills them, but it is still sad to see them go.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
167. lawntonlookers
2:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Good morning Blizz. I see it is getting quite cold in the northern plans states this morning. It should be an interesting game tonight between the Philies and Rockies in Denver. I don't know why the don't start the game earlier in the day. Have a good time at the apple festival.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
166. Zachary Labe
1:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Well I am sure that is record. I know Denver shattered their record low this morning by more than 5degrees and will likely shatter their record min high tmeperature for the date and their record low for tonight. The apple festival is on its 45th year I believe tucked in the South Mountain range near all of the beautiful Adam's County apple orchards. It is the largest apple festival I believe on the east coast. Here is a link to their home page for more information... Link.

jthal57- Yep you will likely by under a frost advisory Sunday night. You perhaps may even see some mid to upper 30s tonight.
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165. jthal57
1:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
rec'd .39 last night here. Frost adv. in the Poconos for tonite...looking at frost here Sunday night
164. TheRasberryPatch
1:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
how big is the festival? sounds like fun.

-3F is cold. i wonder how close to a record? also, from what i recall Denver's snowiest month is October
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
163. Mason803
1:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Interesting reports out of Omaha, Nebraska this morning. Just a bit north of the city, 5inches of snow is being reported.

Mason803- Yep, I visit the festival each year. Take some pictures of your new anemometer tower!


I will once everything is complete
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
162. Zachary Labe
1:34 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Interesting reports out of Omaha, Nebraska this morning. Just a bit north of the city, 5inches of snow is being reported.

Mason803- Yep, I visit the festival each year. Take some pictures of your new anemometer tower!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
161. Mason803
1:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
TheRasberryPatch- Exactly. They were forecasting lows of upper 40s with one or two mid 40s and I had lows of 40, 38, and 42. I am heading down to the Arendtsville Apple Festival today; It should be sunny by later this morning or so.


you'll be down im my neck of the woods today. I got apple dumplings from the Apple Harvest Festival last weekend and they were great. i'll be working on my tower for my new anemometer location this weekend.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
160. Zachary Labe
1:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Boorman, MT is at -3degrees this morning with North Platte, NE and Denver, CO at 19degrees and light snow also Des Moines, IA at 31degrees with light snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
159. TheRasberryPatch
1:10 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
wow, just saw rapid city and missoula are around 12F for morning lows. that is cold for this time of the year i would think.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
158. Zachary Labe
1:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Exactly. They were forecasting lows of upper 40s with one or two mid 40s and I had lows of 40, 38, and 42. I am heading down to the Arendtsville Apple Festival today; It should be sunny by later this morning or so.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
157. TheRasberryPatch
1:06 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
Blizz - i watched the radar last night and saw you were on the edge of the yellows. i don't mind. i will be out in the yard cleaning up and prefer it to not be wet

just like a couple of weeks ago the NWS is conservative with its temps, huh.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
156. Zachary Labe
12:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2009
originalLT- Yep we had some very heavy rain last night. I was the cutoff though between heavy rain and little rain.

TheRasberryPatch- .88inches of rain here!!! I said there was going to be a sharp-cutoff and it looks like it was right around me. Those lows for this week will be much lower. Tonight we should get some patchy roof-top frost with mid to upper 30s and possible frost on ground Sunday night with low to mid 30s. Later this week guidance suggests even lows at or slightly below freezing. NWS just playing it a bit conservative with lows for now. Even the GFS which does not really account for ideal radiational cooling conditions is predicting lows near freezing several times this week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
155. TheRasberryPatch
11:50 AM GMT on October 10, 2009
a warm morning. i am not sure if i got much rain. nothing is showing on the gauge, but the ground is wet. probably got a bit and the birds clogged the gauge. i will fix that problem today. i think i have the answer.

from WU forecast it doesn't appear the temps will get very low this coming week. seems like very similar to what we have been getting
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
154. originalLT
2:43 AM GMT on October 10, 2009
Nice area of showers basically from Scranton down to Allentown, moving ENE, will be interesting to see wether they clip me or just slide by to my N. Right now its 59F, calm wind, baro 1006mb, and cloudy. Blizz did you get any rain from this area of rain, looks like it may have gotten you?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410
153. Zachary Labe
12:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2009
High of 71degrees here. New blog now will likely be out Sunday, but definitely by Monday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
152. TheRasberryPatch
9:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
now up to 72F feels great outside
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
151. TheRasberryPatch
8:07 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
well its mostly sunny now and the temps are warming 67F almost 3F the last hour
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
150. Zachary Labe
7:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
upweatherdog- Well at the very least you will probably be seeing your first flakes of the season next week.

TheRasberryPatch- That is pretty typical for us in the northern half of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The easterly wind piles the cool air and stratus along Blue Mountain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
149. TheRasberryPatch
7:12 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
i was in Towson and they had partly cloudy skies with temps around 73. a really nice day
a far cry from thick clouds and 60's here
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6247
148. upweatherdog
6:31 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
Afternoon Blizzard.

I see the GFS still wants to bring a strong shortwave through the area again on Monday, with accumulating snow. The NAM is even farther north with the shortwave, and the latest GEM and UKMET model data is showing a similar event. The ECMWF is a bit weaker and farther south with the shortwave. Out local NWS office thinks the models are too aggresive with the system, however, it seems the models are trending towards the GFS solution.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
147. Zachary Labe
4:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
Our area will be more towards the start of the dirty warm sector which may allow temperatures to rise quite a bit if the warm front comes far enough north

It looks like the warm front will move far enough north so temperatures are really going to shoot up this afternoon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083
146. Zachary Labe
2:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Yep, most of that rain will track through Erie and such areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15083

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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