The cool, crisp evenings of Fall...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:04 AM GMT on October 04, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 10/03)
Good evening!!! Today I want to look at an interesting concept in the meteorological field, averages. We use the term average for granted every day, not only just weather enthusiasts but also the average Joe. An average is a mean total taken from a set of data added together and divided by the amount of data taken. This gives you the mean, or average total from that data pool and it usually comes out to the mode, or most common data total. But really what is average? Average is basically taking extremes and putting them together to get your mean. So when someone says well the average high for October 3 is 69degrees in Harrisburg, looking back on past data most of the time it really was not 69 and in fact highs ranged from either side of the 69 in two polar opposites. Average is a term I use, but quite dislike, because in weather nothing is average. There will never be a single period of weather exactly the same as one previous. And in many locations the weather changes so quickly, nothing is average. For instance if someone asked what an average Fall is like in Washington, DC average I suppose is subject to one's opinion. Statistical analysis is an interesting concept which tends to abuse the term average. Looking back through statistics of seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg we see very few years that come exactly at "average" of 36inches. Most seasons are actually below the 36inches with a few anomalies such as a few winters with 80inches. This is similar to most locations actually. So once again the term average does not really prove accurate when looking for pure accuracy. Most meteorologists would argue that there is not any averages in weather; it is all just unique, but yet weather uses averages more than many fields. This brings up the idea of correlations, which again is all too familiar in the weather field. We could say that -NAOs in October correlate to warmer than normal winters, but yet this is not nearly always the case. This section is sort of going to set the stage for my blog below especially in the winter portion and long term portion as I mention correlations. But you have to remember a correlation is not always accurate and there will always be outliers. Statistics are a large part of the meteorological field with correlations and averages, but correlations do not write a forecast like most people assume. A forecast is generally a large inexact equation which always equals a different solution. In any case next time you hear the term average low for the day is "X" ask yourself what really is average.

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 10/03)
The cold front has passed through the entire region sparking a few rain showers and thunderstorms currently, Saturday night. Sunday the upper level trough will be over the region, with a 1008mb upper level low spinning over southern Canada. H85s will drop below 8C for the entire Middle Atlantic Sunday giving way to slightly below normal temperatures. Overnight vertical moisture profiles do show the potential for fog Sunday morning for areas especially across the Delmarva up through eastern Pennsylvania, but fog will be patchy and likely limited to visibilities around 1mile. After cool overnight radiational cooling, temperatures will swing upwards during the day under partly sunny skies for most of Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania courtesy of a westerly downsloping component. But across northern Pennsylvania a weak ripple in the jet will allow for a few lake effect rain showers throughout the day with a west-northwest flow aloft and a westerly flow at the surface. Highs will be cool across northern Pennsylvania under an alto-stratus deck with occasional rain squalls. QPF amounts generally will be light. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania with cloudy skies, highs in mid 60s for the rest of Pennsylvania, with upper 60s to lower 70s for the Philadelphia metro area and most of Maryland and Delaware. The upper level low will begin to progress northeast by Sunday evening with clearing across the entire Middle Atlantic from south to north. Radiational cooling will allow for very chilly temperatures Sunday night as dewpoints will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s over Pennsylvania to low 50s over Maryland and Delaware. With clear skies and light winds cool air will sink in the valleys with the warm air residual layer forming aloft. Lows will range from upper 30s across the northern tier New York/Pennsylvania border counties to mid 40s over the southern portions of Pennsylvania to near 50 over the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Across western Maryland and northern Maryland lows will be in the low to mid 40s with low 50s over extreme southern Maryland with upper 40s over Delaware to 50degrees. High pressure looks to remain in control for Monday after some ground radiation morning fog burning off by 830am in the deep river valleys. Ground fog season is coming to a close as finally water temperatures are beginning to cool closer to air temperature during lows along for a non-existent extreme land/water temperature contrast overnight. Anyways Monday a few alto-cumulus are possible over the lake effect belts near Erie and Bradford through Garret County, Maryland but for the most part sunshine will prevail over the region for a nice day. Highs will continue to average slightly below normal with highs in the lower 60s for northern Pennsylvania and mid 60s for most other areas in Pennsylvania and western/northern Maryland. Southern Maryland through Delaware and the Philadelphia area will see high in the upper 60s. Slightly drier air will advect into the region for a very cold Monday night. Once again, low dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, calm winds, and clear skies will promote dramatic nocturnal temperature swings downward starting at sunset as the winds decouple. It looks like another potential for frost over northern Pennsylvania with lows ranging from the low 30s to mid 30s. The areas at highest threat will be around Bradford. Across central and southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia lows will range from the low 40s to upper 30s with lows similar to those numbers found for northern Maryland. Across Garret County and the Potomac Highlands in Maryland, lows may be in the mid 30s with the threat of light frost possible. Lows for areas through the Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor will be in the mid 40s to upper 40s. After some patchy radiational fog, Tuesday will feature increasing clouds ahead of the next cold front and disturbance. Generally the day looks partly cloudy for most areas with a lowering cloud deck especially for southwestern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for highs ranging from the low 60s over northern areas to near 70 across the Washington DC metropolitan region. Pittsburgh will also see slightly warmer temperatures under the southwest flow ahead of the front with high perhaps in the lower 70s. Clouds will be thickening over much of the western half of the Middle Atlantic by Tuesday evening as a cold front approaches with an upper level low moving through the Great Lakes. H85s will rise briefly to 11C over the region for a milder night Tuesday than the past few nights. Lows will remain relatively uniform over the region ranging in the 50s with clouds.

Weak frontogenisis and better dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic will allow for meager QPF around .25inches to only a trace as the front passes through early Wednesday. Temperatures will only slightly rise throughout the day Wednesday once the front passes through. The highest chance of measurable rainfall is over northwestern Pennsylvania with chances of precipitation dwindling as one moves south and east. This is an all too common theme of the past two weeks, and it will continue. Even some heavier rain is possible over New England. Highs Wednesday will be near seasonal levels ranging from lower 70s over Maryland and the Delmarva along with southern Pennsylvania to the mid 60s over northern Pennsylvania. A few mid 70s may also even be possible in the larger cities over southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast will occur throughout the day allowing dewpoints to fall also. Wednesday will feature clear skies over Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania with clouds over northern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands courtesy of the cold air advection/northwest flow. H85s will drop back below 8C by late Wednesday evening. Radiational cooling will allow for chilly temperatures once again over Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware ranging from low 40s to low 50s depending on location. High pressure moves in control for Thursday for the region with the influence of the upper level trough. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s over Pennsylvania and western Maryland, to mid 60s to upper 60s over Delaware and Maryland. Sunshine will prevail over the region. Thursday night will also feature radiational cooling conditions combined with low dewpoints, so this will allow for well below normal lows. Once again a frost potential is possible for western Maryland and northern Pennsylvania perhaps into the Poconos. Lows will range from low 30s near Bradford to upper 40s in Philadelphia. Lows over Maryland will range from the upper 30s near Deep Creek to low 50s in Washington DC. Over Delaware lows will be pretty uniform with lows along the coast in the lower 50s to upper 40s over northern Delaware. Friday looks to be once again a nice day with sunshine and high pressure in control under the influence of a weak trough. Temperatures look seasonable to slightly below normal in the upper 50s to lower 70s near Washington DC. A few clouds will approach the region from the west, with thick clouds by evening as another front approaches the region. See more details on the Columbus Day weekend forecast in the "long term" section.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Forecast"(Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon Counties)(Updated 10/03)
The coming week looks pretty typical of October with slightly below normal temperatures all week and several frontal passages as wave lengths remain shorter in October allowing for more transient weather patterns. Sunday morning may allow for some patchy fog to form in the Lower Susquehanna Valley especially towards eastern York County in southern Lancaster County where there remains some residual moisture. Those places may see some locally dense fog down below .25miles. Fog should burn off by 830/9am. After a cool morning temperatures will rise to slightly below normal highs ranging from the mid 60s over the elevations above 900ft to upper 60s over the southern portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley towards Lancaster County. Sunshine will prevail most of the day with high pressure in control and a downsloping westerly wind. Clear skies and calm winds will allow for a chilly night Sunday night as dewpoints remain quite dry in the upper 40s. Lows will range from the low 40s over northern Dauphin County around Halifax to Williamstown to Ono in Lebanon County and also in Perry County from Newport on westward. Lows elsewhere will be in the mid 40s. Monday looks to be a generally nice day with brilliant sunshine after patchy morning radiation fog across Franklin and Adams Counties along the South Mountain foothills. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal with highs in the mid 60s for the entire area with a few lower 60s over the higher elevations in Adams, Franklin, Perry, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties. Monday night will feature a very chilly night; one of the coldest of the season. With calm winds, clear skies, and dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s, low temperatures will fall quickly overnight at the rate of 2-5degrees/hour. Lows will drop into the upper 30s for areas in favorable radiating locations such as central York County, the foothills of South Mountain in Adams County, Amberson Valley in Franklin County, the ridge valleys in Dauphin and Lebanon Counties, and Perry County. Areas in the higher elevations and over urban heat island effect locations such as central Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster lows will be more manageable in the low to mid 40s. I would not be surprised to hear of a very light frost across far northern Dauphin County just east of Millersburg or across Amberson Valley in northern Franklin County. Keep in mind frosts can form from 2m lows in the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday will feature morning sunshine with increasing clouds throughout the day giving way to highs in the mid 60s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures again will be a few degrees below normal. By evening an alto-stratus deck will begin to dominate the valley. Tuesday night will feature milder temperatures than the few previous nights courtesy of cloud cover and a southwest flow. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which are a hair above normal.

For Wednesday temperatures will be near seasonable levels to slightly above normal under the southwest flow ahead of the front. Highs will range from the upper 60s for elevations above 1000ft to low 70s for most other locations. A mid 70 reading is possible for areas such as Lancaster. A few very early morning rain showers are possible, but amounts look very light and spotty with the better dynamics to our north and west. Sunshine will begin to peak out later in the day. By evening skies will begin to clear from west to east with falling temperatures as the front moves through with another upper level trough. Wednesday night will be cool as winds decouple with lows in the upper 40s for most of the region, which is right around normal for this time of year. Some guidance suggests Wednesday is the best chance at above normal temperatures in the 14-16 day time frame. Thursday looks nice with high pressure in control and brilliant sunshine with highs slightly below normal in the mid 60s for most areas with a few upper 60s near Lancaster and downtown York. With low dewpoints once again, Thursday night will be very cool and lows will fall to similar readings as Monday night with upper 30s to lower 40s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will rebound for the daytime hours of Friday and any patchy radiation fog will burn off by 830am. Sunshine will prevail for the morning before an increase in clouds ahead of another cold front. Once again though the better dynamics remain north of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Highs Friday will be slightly below normal again in the low to mid 60s. Average highs this time of year are in the upper 60s to 70. On a side note I find it comical I contradict myself mentioning averages for all the forecasts despite my rant about the term average in my afternoon thoughts section. Anyways for more details on the weekend forecast see the long term section below. In general a nice, cool Fall weekend is in store for the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

"Current Lower Susquehanna Valley Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast Marine and Boating Forecast"(Maryland and Delaware Coastal Forecast)(Updated 10/03)
It looks like a relatively quiet marine and boating weather week is in store for the Chesapeake Bay basin and the Atlantic coast along Delaware and Maryland. To start the week a weak secondary low over the Delmarva will move off the coast in response to the primary upper level low off the Great Lakes transitioning northeast through Ontario and Quebec. As the flow turns from southeasterly, seas will lower less than 5ft wave lengths along the coast and tidal levels in the Chesapeake will return to normal. A northwest flow will prevail Sunday with a slightly tightened pressure gradient transferring 20-30knot winds to the surface over the open water. Small craft advisory conditions are possible through Sunday evening with some gusty winds, but brilliant sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area this week, but high pressure will prevail Monday with sunshine and cooler Fall-like temperatures. Towards Tuesday the flow will turn a bit more southerly allowing for slightly warmer air and some weak channeling of water along the southern Chesapeake. But conditions will quickly change by Wednesday as another cold front moves through with cold air advection to follow with another tightened pressure gradient with 25knot small craft advisory threshold winds over much of the local waterways through Wednesday night. Once again high pressure will move in from the south Thursday through Friday with much cooler air, but calmer winds. Another cold front will approach the region towards the weekend with similar conditions ahead and after the frontal passage. Precipitation chances this week remain relatively slim as weak forcing of the fronts courtesy of the extended and trailing upper level lows keeps most of the precipitation dying off as they approach the Middle Atlantic. Any QPF through the week would likely be Tuesday night through Wednesday or Friday night, but totals would likely be less than a tenth of an inch. In general the transient pattern this week will be very reminiscent of typical cool Fall conditions. Happy sailing!!!

"Current Atlantic Coast Forecast Wave Heights and Chesapeake Bay Forecast Wind Direction/Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Updates on Winter Predictions" (Updated 10/03)
It was nice to see some signs of winter this week across the United States with currently many winter storm advisories and warnings being issued for the Rockies as a deep trough and low pressure will correlate to heavy mountain snowfall. But also recently across New England snowfall occurred with the second earliest on record 3inch snowfall for Mt. Mansfield in Vermont. Mount Washington also record 1.1inches with temperatures dropping into the upper teens. I imagine it looked wonderful with the fall foliage lined against the snow-white capped mountains of the Green, White, and Adirondack Mountains. This week my focus was analyzing the Pacific as we really have a pretty ideal Pacific for east coast troughing this week through the middle of October. A giant negative EPO ridge will move across the western United States towards next week along with a positive PNA. Also we are finally starting to see signs of the El Nino gaining a bit more footing as the SOI readings are beginning to show weaker positive daily reports. The westerly wind burst and Kelvin wave looks to have established some warmer SSTs over Nino regions 4 and 3.4 to remain relatively consistent this past week despite some impressive cooling over region 1 and 2. Signs are growing of the more favorable +AMM and +QBO towards November. Also the PDO still appears to be negative with a few cold pockets in the Gulf of Alaska vicinity, but it will not be nearly as negative as the last few winters and may perhaps leaving the negative PDO cycle. Statistics and correlations show that during +ENSO years a positive PNA may correlate to a below normal temperature winter, this has occurred on several occasions. But looking at the Atlantic, despite it being a favorable negative and west-based NAO through midmonth statistics prove that negative NAOs correlate to a switch to a positive NAO during winter. And then on the other hand colder than normal Octobers correlate to below normal temperature winters in the east. I emphasize these correlations, because what I have read this week is people putting too much emphasize on these correlations. Several select years including several 60s winters and the winter of 76-77 and 77-78 kept the negative NAO from October through the entire winter. Right now the pattern is pretty great looking at it from a teleconnective perspective, and as we move through October signs of the winter pattern will appear. This year is very unusual, and as I keep mentioning, analogs are really quite difficult to find. I still see conflicting signs, but for now I am quite pleased with my winter forecast.

Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 10/03)
It is exciting is not, to see pumpkins lining the streets and Fall leaves canvassing local roadways. Fall foliage is going to be hitting the height across the northern parts of Pennsylvania as Fall foliage will be entering peak colors likely by the end of this week through the 15th. Maples are showing brilliant reds along the mountainsides especially across Sullivan County through Bradford, Susquehanna, Wayne, Lackawanna, McKean, Warren, Crawford, Potter, Tioga Mercer, and Erie counties. Red maples along with birch are showing brilliants yellows and reds especially for elevations above 1800ft. First frosts have occurred in many of these areas with upper 20s reported in Potter, Tioga, McKean, and Warren counties the other evening which has enhanced the breakdown of the green chlorophyll. Oaks are not showing too much color, although extremities are beginning to show yellows or rustic browns especially for the higher elevations. The next coming week is perfect for those long drives along scenic RT 6 across the northern parts of Pennsylvania through Alleghany National forecast, which is reporting wonderful colors including some yellows from oaks. Across the central third of Pennsylvania along and just south of the interstate 80 corridor, colors will be nearing peak within the next 6-14 days with hardwood sugar and red maple beginning to reach heightened color. The common theme of below normal temperatures through September and continuing into October has allowed for some earlier color in some areas especially across the higher elevations towards Clearfield and western Centre County, but also along the Poconos. Color is reported as excellent near famous state parks such as World's End State Park in the endless mountain region. The next two weekends look wonderful for a weekend stay in the Poconos to do some fall exploring near Bushkill Falls. Across the coal country of Schuylkill County birch and aspen are turning brilliant yellows and those trees should reach peak in the next seven days. Farther south in Pennsylvania the southeastern region near Philadelphia is still reporting patchy conditions as oaks dominate most of the southern portion of Pennsylvania's forests. Most maples though or ornamental trees and invasive species are showing some reds. Across the south-central region colors are a bit more prevalent with some color change across the South Mountain region up through the Blue Ridge. Once again oaks dominate the forests, so color will always be delayed likely to late October. Across the Laurel Highlands, high elevation has allowed for more color with areas near Johnstown being reported at 25% color change and should reach peak in the next 1-2 weeks. Across western Pennsylvania, conditions have been dry allowing for more plentiful color than some surrounding areas. It looks like a week or two to take a trip out to Shawnee State Park. Towards Maryland, western portions of the state along and western of the Cumberland Gap are showing near peak conditions especially towards Garret County with the higher elevations. Frosts have been recorded in this areas enhancing color. Across the rest of Maryland and through Delaware color conditions are similar to southeastern Pennsylvania with colors being patchy courtesy of the abundance of late turning oaks. Overall color should be enhanced this week as days will be sunny with cooler than normal temperatures followed by very chilly nights. A few frosts are possible across northern Pennsylvania Tuesday night and later in the week. Take a Sunday drive and few the beauty of Mother Nature at some of the fine state parks in the Middle Atlantic.

Fall Foliage Reports... Link

"Long Term Outlook" (7-14 Day Time Frame) (Updated 10/03)
Towards the Columbus Day weekend, the weather gets quite interesting. A strong cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley with steep lapse rates, courtesy of the -10 deviation temperatures behind the front. Current model guidance is suggesting a front passage around late Friday through early Saturday, but being so far away timing is a bit low confidence of a forecast at this point. In any case 12z 10/3/09 GFS was interesting show some Gulf moisture streaming up the Ohio Valley and forming some convection along the front in that region on Friday. Heightened winds aloft may even a pose a threat to strong thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley. But once again a 996mb upper level low lagging behind the front in the Great Lakes will tend to steal the dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic allowing the front to weaken in terms of precipitation. H85s then drop below 7C for much of the region on Saturday with cold air advection allowing for below normal temperatures. It remains uncertain how much QPF is possible over the Middle Atlantic, but for now it appears the front will be weakening as it approaches from the west. Saturday afternoon may be partly cloudy as the front moves out to sea. Cool Canadian air moves in for Sunday with well below normal temperatures as H85s drop below 0C for all of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. High pressure to our west looks to be in control, so Sunday should be nice but cool outside. The flow begins to turn more northwesterly later in the day Sunday allowing some lake effect precipitation in diurnal cumulus to advect over the region especially later in the day and towards Monday. For Columbus Day a few flakes cannot even be ruled out for elevations above 2100ft in northern Pennsylvania as air column samples will be partly below freezing. Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will occur for Columbus day over the Middle Atlantic, with downsloping allowing for some sunshine towards southeastern Pennsylvania, southern Maryland, and all of Delaware. Looking towards next week, temperatures look nearly 10-20degrees below normal over the region as the coldest air of the season moves over the region. 12z 10/03/09 ECMWF even shows early signs of lake effect possibilities towards New York State, there may even be some higher elevation snow in this time frame across New England perhaps a bit more widespread than the previous event. Today the ECMWF center even gave special access to 2m temperatures in this long range time frame from the 12z model run showing highs in the low 50s to 40s for many areas in this time frame with mid 50s towards Maryland and Delaware. In any case next week is looking well below normal with possible lake effect rain and daily alto-cumulus over much of the Middle Atlantic. It should not last too long with the (-2)-(-3) deviation trough as a modifying ridge moves over the region later in the week before another troughs move in. The pattern remains transient, but generally below normal temperature wise and near to below normal precipitation.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(October)(Updated 9/13)
This monthly outlook is going to be posted a bit early this year for October. I never issued a September forecast and now it is the middle of the month so I decided to forecast October instead of the last two weeks in September. Therefore this outlook is a bit lower than normal for confidence. As many probably could guess I am going with a colder than normal October. Long term GFS especially is consistent with trough formation over the east coast and an amplified western ridge. Latest ECMWF is also steadfast, but not amplified with weaker western ridge and a weaker trough, but they are still evident. Teleconnections are a bit more favorable also for a cool pattern across the east coast. It appears the PNA will be spiking highly positive towards October 1 with the NAO and AO more towards neutral. As far as precipitation it appears near normal precipitation is likely with a drier start to the month gradually becoming more active. If the cooler than normal October verifies historical odds definitely favor a colder than normal with quite a bit of snow for the upcoming winter. I guess all we can wish for is not another October 2008 which was extremely mild and again followed by a mild winter. Looking on a more global perspective there is a building dome of cold air over the Arctic towards Greenland and northern Canada. This cold air will continue to build and likely be a catalyst for bits of cold air to break off and surge to the United States with strong cold fronts.

Temperature- As I already mentioned I believe this month will feature cooler than normal temperatures will a general trough over the Middle Atlantic. I think areas north of I-80 will have the colder anomalies as occasional stalled fronts affect southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware with clouds and precipitation while highs to the north allow radiational cooling for northern Pennsylvania. I am going with a general (-1)-(-2) temperature anomaly for most areas with a generally (0)-(-.5) for the metros of Philadelphia and Washington DC. Frosts and freezes do look likely for most all locations this month with periods of colder than normal weather. Especially early in the month frosts may occur with a high pressure over the region and a trough.

Precipitation- Precipitation looks to be near normal for the month with a dry start to the month as a strong high pressure looks to be over much of the eastern United States in a general benign weather pattern. Towards the middle of the month and the end the active storm track should resume similarities to earlier in the month of September. The subtropical jet will feature periods of storms tracking up the east coast. As far as snowfall, most likely at some point in the month areas, in the lake effect snow belts of Maryland and Pennsylvania will see at least flurries. It is too early to tell whether any system like October 2009 will affect the region.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

Fall Reflections... (Blizzard92)
Colors are a bit more brilliant in northern Dauphin County than towards Harrisburg. Fishing Creek Valley has evident yellows, reds, and oranges.
Fall Reflections...

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Thanks for the photos Mason, hope your trees survive, trees are pretty tough if they are healthy and yours sure look to be. Hurigo, I mentioned here in Blizz's blog about the "plethora" of acorns this year. Right after I mentioned it there was an article in AOL.News about the tremendous crop this year, it said the trees seem to go in cycles varying from 2-7 years. I know last year where I live, Stamford CT., we had very little, this year incredible. They were coming down like bombs!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
TheDawnAwakening- They had some snow up on Mt Washington earlier this evening, not sure what they are reporting currently.

NEwxguy- This certainly may pose as a winter and even late Fall preview.

TheRasberryPatch- Yep hardly rain here too, as expected though.

jthal57- Looking at damage reports, Pennsylvania was hit one of the hardest.

Mason803- Wow! Thanks for posting the pictures!

hurigo- Good evening! I was out in the mountains this past weekend and everytime the wind would blow, hundreds of acorns would come raining down on my head, lol. It definitely seems there is an abundance this year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
Well that's a good thing, Mason: the firewood provided. It was similar here in that there would be calm and then a gust. Since I was driving when I noticed the turbulence, I was wondering if it was when I was on the east-west routes that I felt the wind (momentarily freightening) and it seemed so much less on the north-south treks. The E-W routes had trees closer to the road, and thus more acorns falling forcefully, and the N-S routes not so much.

There's nothing like the sound of a tree falling or tearing. Bet it was awful to hear but that you were grateful that there was no damage, not to mention the easier firewood.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hurigo,

no problem. The wood is going to be turned into firewood so it won't be wasted. Yes, it was very gusty up this way today. The wind would calm down and then all of the sudden a big gust would roll through and stir up leaves and dust and sometimes snap trees as the case in my frontyard.
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Hi Mason,
Thank you for posting the pictures of the tree damages. I suppose the winds were a bit stronger up your way. I hate to see a tree hurt, but hope that all fared well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Blizz,
Firstly, please forgive my absence as I have been busy with all that stuff that happens to all of us in daily life. Secondly, I did think of you and your blog today when the power went off momentarily when I was in the kitchen mid-day and that was after an interesting lunch time drive through strong winds blowing dust, dirt, branches, acorns and other assorted tree productions. It made me happy to see and hear all those acorns when I remembered that last year in the mid-Atlantic there was a serious, mysterious acorn shortage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's my wind damage today:






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
had .16 rain this am, 33mph gust this afternoon in downtown Easton. Someone a few miles from me recorded a 46mph gust. Reports (unofficial) of branches and a few trees down around area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
0.01" of rain from the front. highest wind gust so far has been 35mph occurred at 1230pm

i haven't seen much damage except for some twigs from a neighbors tree. a chair got blown into my pool.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6243
Blizzard, BMG put the S word in the extended. That spot of snow is getting more likely as the days pass. :-)


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2009

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WNW UPPER FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EXITS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WEAK LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN MORNING IN PRONOUNCED WNW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUASH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY. LARGE
UNCERTAINTY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN TAKES THE FEATURE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER BY 00Z TUE. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKES
THE FEATURE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LATEST ARRIVING
12Z CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE FURTHER EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...HOWEVER THE GEM HAS THE
FEATURE FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO BASE MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON THE IN BETWEEN ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS
OBVIOUSLY SUPPORTS RATHER COOL TEMPS FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE ONTARIO. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES EASILY FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY TUESDAY AND THUS
HAVE INTRODUCED -RA/SN MENTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS HOWEVER AS ELEVATION CONSIDERATIONS
MAY FAVOR ALL SN PRECIP TYPE AS OPPOSED TO A RA/SN MIX. CONTINUED
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW/S
DEPARTURE AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLANS/MIDWEST. IN GENERAL...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE AS
IT WAS ALREADY INDICATING TEMPS BELOW MEX VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
this is going to be an interesting storm next Monday and Tuesday,a couple of the models bring it right up over eastern new england deepening it rapidly
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15559
Heavy downpours earlier this morning then cleared out with clouds here to there, now just about a half hour to an hour ago we had some reasonable 20mph gusts I believe with a round of heavy showers. Now it's just cloudy.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
Mason803- Wow, looking forward to pictures. I have about a 2-3inch diameter limb down in my front yard, but that is it.

originalLT- I can't find too many reports of strong wind gusts, but damage is pretty widespread. A 53mph gust was recorded at PSU a few hours ago, Erie had a 51mph gust this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
Good afternoon from here, its windy but not that bad here, yet, I have 2 anamometers, one analogue, the other digital, well, something is wrong with the digital, I ckecked for the max wind gust for the day and it reads,162.6km, I think not. The other one reads 32mph. for my highest gust, thats more like it. From about 10 to 10:30 am today a secondary line of brief but heavy showers came thru., moving NW to SE. It left 0.08" more. Many reports around the NYC. area of downed trees. Kennedy airport was reporting last houe sustained winds of 32mph, gusting to 46mph. according to WCBS AM radio. My baro. now reads 1000mb. and rising slowly. Thats it for now, how about some other reports from you guys!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
*storm report*

12" diameter section of tree snapped off along with another 10" diameter section of a different tree snapped on my property. recorded gust of 41mph. both trees were maples with full foilage. i'll try to have pics later

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Good afternoon all!!! Sure is windy with several damage reports in the Middle Atlantic.

TheDawnAwakening- 630ft isn't too high. The chance is a long way out so difficult to say at this point.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
12z GFS, must be on crack and what not. 992mb low over Cape Cod, MA deepening around 15-20mb in 12 hours after it's journey over Cape Cod, MA and into the Canadian Maritimes. Of course the 12z GFS out to 384 hours has the perfect storm, but nowhere near the pressure it has for the storm next Tuesday. CMC and EURO disagree on the strength with the CMC along with the track further east and the EURO and GFS closer with the track.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
Strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts to 50mph and small hail near Buzzards Bay: Special WEather Statement:
At 107 PM EDT National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm with the potential to produce wind gusts to 50
mph and small hail 5 miles northwest of Falmouth... moving east at 50
mph.

* Some locations affected include... Falmouth... Mashpee... Hyannis...
Harwich and Chatham.

For your safety... get inside when this storm approaches. Heavy rain
may cause minor street flooding as well as ponding of water in poor
drainage areas.

Mle
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
Thanks Lawnton, just a weather note here in Stamford CT., we got 0.58" of rain over night, even a rumble or two of thunder, the Baro. got down to 994mb. about an hour ago, now starting to rise, up to 996mb. Also the wind is starting to pick up out of the NW, gusts to 15mph. Whats interesting, the wind is generally out of the NW but the clouds are moving very fast from the WSW to the ENE. Temp. is 63F. The sun is starting to peak thru now and then. Waiting for the strong wind gusts!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Quoting originalLT:
Just looked it up, of course there really is no correlation to what winter will be like, scientifically, they have tried to find one but there is no apparent connection.


original. Sorry I didn't respond back yesterday but I got busy. The wooly bear caterpillar is like the ground hog. Just another way to make forecsting more fun. The one I saw yesterday was big and black and may have been something other than a wooly bear.
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Looks like a pretty serious wind event for southern new england this afternoon.Will have to see how things transpire.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 873 Comments: 15559
Raining now since earlier this morning. Blizzard I am roughly 630ft from sea level and at 44N latitude, what are the chances for me to get snow next week?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
Windy day is coming today, only .03inches of rain overnight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
pittsburghnurse- Good evening!!! It is possible for Pittsburgh to see flurries next week, but the Laurel Highlands and to your north have a better chance. As we get closer, we will be able to zone in on details.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
BTW, crickets here have quieted down dramatically. I haven't seen a robin in about a week. The titmice have arrived at the feeder in moderate numbers and the chickadees and nuthatches are plentiful.
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Accuweather is predicting some snow for the Pittsburgh region Monday night of next week. That's further south than anyone has mentioned thus far.
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wind Advisory for most of Southern New England.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
First CTP entire CWA wind advisory of young fall season...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
Low of 38.2degrees here this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
Just looked it up, of course there really is no correlation to what winter will be like, scientifically, they have tried to find one but there is no apparent connection.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Completly black!, doesn't that, in folk lore, mean a cold winter?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Good morning. I saw a couple of wooly caterpillars yesterday and they were big. One was completely black and about 1/2 inch in diameter. Looking for a place to winter over.
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temp is at 43 where I live it is chilly!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
MY cricket index is way down, just was outside with my 2 dogs and only a couple chirping--down to 47.3F now, looks like soon there will be none, any trace of summer will be over!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
Models seem on track with an amplified pattern next week, given that the PNA index is positive next week and the NAO stays negative for the most part.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3605
TheRasberryPatch- I just decided to post them here so I could reference them at ease. Anyways I think so for the freeze. Areas in southern Maryland and probably Baltimore and Philadelphia will not see freezing conditions, but other areas have a pretty decent chances. GFS has been consistent on upper 20s for us here in Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
thanks Blizz. i just thought maybe you could have it as a link instead of using up space. so do you think most of those stations seeing freeze temps by the end of next week if models are correct?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6243
KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Mason803- September 30
Blizzard92- October 4
Snowlover2010- October 5
wxgeek723- October 7
Lawntonlookers- October 14
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 17
Tazmanian- October 20

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 30
Blizzard92- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
wxgeek723- October 11
hurricane30- October 17
Lawtonlookers- October 21
Mason803- October 22
Tazmanian- October 30

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 15
Mason803- September 18
hurricane30- September 18
Blizzard92- September 22
TheRasberryPatch- September 23
Lawtonlookers- September 28
wxgeek723- September 30
Tazmanian- October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Snowlover2010- September 28
Mason803- September 28
Blizzard92- October 1
Lawtonlookers- October 5
TheRasberryPatch- October 6
hurricane30- October 12
wxgeek723- October 14
Tazmanian- October 20

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 9
Snowlover2010- October 12
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Blizzard92- October 27
Mason803- October 30
hurricane30- November 4
Lawtonlookers- November 5
wxgeek723- November 6

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
Tazmanian- October 15
Mason803- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 15
hurricane30- October 22
Snowlover2010- October 27
Blizzard92- October 28
Lawtonlookers- October 28
wxgeek723- November 9

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 6
TheRasberryPatch- October 8
Tazmanian- October 10
Snowlover2010- October 10
Lawtonlookers- October 14
wxgeek723- October 16
hurricane30- October 17
Mason803- October 20

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
Tazmanian- October 7
TheRasberryPatch- October 17
Snowlover2010- October 25
Blizzard92- October 25
Lawtonlookers- November 1
Mason802- November 4
wxgeek723- November 9

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
Tazmanian- October 15
TheRasberryPatch- October 20
Weathergeek5- October 24
Blizzard92- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- October 29
hurricane30- October 29
wxgeek723- November 3
Lawtonlookers- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRasberryPatch- October 25
Snowlover2010- October 27
Mason803- November 3
hurricane30- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5
Lawtonlookers- November 8
wxgeek723- November 15
Blizzard92- November 18
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
maybe you can put in your blog the link to the freezing temp contest. i would like to check back on it. i think a lot of people had freeze and frosts earlier
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6243
Snowlover2010- The lacking Siberian snowcover currently and slightly unfavorable placement of negative NAO leads me to believe the models are overamplifying the trough and the cool down will be transient in nature. While it will be nearly 10-15degrees below normal for a few days next week, I dought it will be record breaking like the ECMWF showed yesterday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
I was just comparing the GFS and NAM and around 84hrs the NAM actually has everything further south than the GFS including the cold air, and high on east coast. To me this would mean a cooler pattern than the GFS shows. Any thoughts Bliz?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
This goes to show everyone how winter starved we are. I better buy a hat soon.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
jthal57- We should be able to get some frost in the region within the next 7-10days.

TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha, I wondered when you would chime in. It just is quite impressive how anomalously cold the models are forecasting next week to be. The data is quite impressive, and while it will be toned down in the coming days it is exciting to watch. For me the excitement of a Fall through Winter forecast is 100% better than summer and severe weather forecasting.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
amazing the hype. is this Blizz's blog on WU or one of those other snow loving blogs? too funny

i do recall snow/rain that cancelled the first game of the 1979 World Series that allowed me to go to the game the next day because a friend had to work. it was one cold game too
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6243
I know some are anxiously awaiting first flakes, but I'll be happy with my first frost!
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this 1st cold snap looks like it may bring the 1st snow too many parts of the USA and back E next week
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Snowlover2010- Haha, I wondered when someone was going to mention it. I cannot say I disagree with his discussion; although some of his forecast snow totals are a bit gustsy to say the least.

***By the way all, today is the earliest reported trace of snow in Harrisburg. October 5, 1944 trace of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
U see on accuweather henry margusity's winter forecast? says that normal for harrisburg is 34in and his forecast is 51in!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Snowlover2010- 12z ECMWF also had a few nice signals for lake effect. But my thinking is the models are a bit too amplified and will tone down the cold by a bit, so for now I think it is just a bit too far out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071
I was actually talking more like next wed-thurs as far as lake effect. On GFS seems pretty widepread.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Snowlover2010- For now Bradford looks to have a pretty decent chance for flurries starting towards the weekend. We should be able to zone in on details later this week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15071

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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