The cool, crisp evenings of Fall...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:04 AM GMT on October 04, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 10/03)
Good evening!!! Today I want to look at an interesting concept in the meteorological field, averages. We use the term average for granted every day, not only just weather enthusiasts but also the average Joe. An average is a mean total taken from a set of data added together and divided by the amount of data taken. This gives you the mean, or average total from that data pool and it usually comes out to the mode, or most common data total. But really what is average? Average is basically taking extremes and putting them together to get your mean. So when someone says well the average high for October 3 is 69degrees in Harrisburg, looking back on past data most of the time it really was not 69 and in fact highs ranged from either side of the 69 in two polar opposites. Average is a term I use, but quite dislike, because in weather nothing is average. There will never be a single period of weather exactly the same as one previous. And in many locations the weather changes so quickly, nothing is average. For instance if someone asked what an average Fall is like in Washington, DC average I suppose is subject to one's opinion. Statistical analysis is an interesting concept which tends to abuse the term average. Looking back through statistics of seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg we see very few years that come exactly at "average" of 36inches. Most seasons are actually below the 36inches with a few anomalies such as a few winters with 80inches. This is similar to most locations actually. So once again the term average does not really prove accurate when looking for pure accuracy. Most meteorologists would argue that there is not any averages in weather; it is all just unique, but yet weather uses averages more than many fields. This brings up the idea of correlations, which again is all too familiar in the weather field. We could say that -NAOs in October correlate to warmer than normal winters, but yet this is not nearly always the case. This section is sort of going to set the stage for my blog below especially in the winter portion and long term portion as I mention correlations. But you have to remember a correlation is not always accurate and there will always be outliers. Statistics are a large part of the meteorological field with correlations and averages, but correlations do not write a forecast like most people assume. A forecast is generally a large inexact equation which always equals a different solution. In any case next time you hear the term average low for the day is "X" ask yourself what really is average.

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 10/03)
The cold front has passed through the entire region sparking a few rain showers and thunderstorms currently, Saturday night. Sunday the upper level trough will be over the region, with a 1008mb upper level low spinning over southern Canada. H85s will drop below 8C for the entire Middle Atlantic Sunday giving way to slightly below normal temperatures. Overnight vertical moisture profiles do show the potential for fog Sunday morning for areas especially across the Delmarva up through eastern Pennsylvania, but fog will be patchy and likely limited to visibilities around 1mile. After cool overnight radiational cooling, temperatures will swing upwards during the day under partly sunny skies for most of Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania courtesy of a westerly downsloping component. But across northern Pennsylvania a weak ripple in the jet will allow for a few lake effect rain showers throughout the day with a west-northwest flow aloft and a westerly flow at the surface. Highs will be cool across northern Pennsylvania under an alto-stratus deck with occasional rain squalls. QPF amounts generally will be light. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania with cloudy skies, highs in mid 60s for the rest of Pennsylvania, with upper 60s to lower 70s for the Philadelphia metro area and most of Maryland and Delaware. The upper level low will begin to progress northeast by Sunday evening with clearing across the entire Middle Atlantic from south to north. Radiational cooling will allow for very chilly temperatures Sunday night as dewpoints will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s over Pennsylvania to low 50s over Maryland and Delaware. With clear skies and light winds cool air will sink in the valleys with the warm air residual layer forming aloft. Lows will range from upper 30s across the northern tier New York/Pennsylvania border counties to mid 40s over the southern portions of Pennsylvania to near 50 over the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Across western Maryland and northern Maryland lows will be in the low to mid 40s with low 50s over extreme southern Maryland with upper 40s over Delaware to 50degrees. High pressure looks to remain in control for Monday after some ground radiation morning fog burning off by 830am in the deep river valleys. Ground fog season is coming to a close as finally water temperatures are beginning to cool closer to air temperature during lows along for a non-existent extreme land/water temperature contrast overnight. Anyways Monday a few alto-cumulus are possible over the lake effect belts near Erie and Bradford through Garret County, Maryland but for the most part sunshine will prevail over the region for a nice day. Highs will continue to average slightly below normal with highs in the lower 60s for northern Pennsylvania and mid 60s for most other areas in Pennsylvania and western/northern Maryland. Southern Maryland through Delaware and the Philadelphia area will see high in the upper 60s. Slightly drier air will advect into the region for a very cold Monday night. Once again, low dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, calm winds, and clear skies will promote dramatic nocturnal temperature swings downward starting at sunset as the winds decouple. It looks like another potential for frost over northern Pennsylvania with lows ranging from the low 30s to mid 30s. The areas at highest threat will be around Bradford. Across central and southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia lows will range from the low 40s to upper 30s with lows similar to those numbers found for northern Maryland. Across Garret County and the Potomac Highlands in Maryland, lows may be in the mid 30s with the threat of light frost possible. Lows for areas through the Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor will be in the mid 40s to upper 40s. After some patchy radiational fog, Tuesday will feature increasing clouds ahead of the next cold front and disturbance. Generally the day looks partly cloudy for most areas with a lowering cloud deck especially for southwestern Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for highs ranging from the low 60s over northern areas to near 70 across the Washington DC metropolitan region. Pittsburgh will also see slightly warmer temperatures under the southwest flow ahead of the front with high perhaps in the lower 70s. Clouds will be thickening over much of the western half of the Middle Atlantic by Tuesday evening as a cold front approaches with an upper level low moving through the Great Lakes. H85s will rise briefly to 11C over the region for a milder night Tuesday than the past few nights. Lows will remain relatively uniform over the region ranging in the 50s with clouds.

Weak frontogenisis and better dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic will allow for meager QPF around .25inches to only a trace as the front passes through early Wednesday. Temperatures will only slightly rise throughout the day Wednesday once the front passes through. The highest chance of measurable rainfall is over northwestern Pennsylvania with chances of precipitation dwindling as one moves south and east. This is an all too common theme of the past two weeks, and it will continue. Even some heavier rain is possible over New England. Highs Wednesday will be near seasonal levels ranging from lower 70s over Maryland and the Delmarva along with southern Pennsylvania to the mid 60s over northern Pennsylvania. A few mid 70s may also even be possible in the larger cities over southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast will occur throughout the day allowing dewpoints to fall also. Wednesday will feature clear skies over Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania with clouds over northern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands courtesy of the cold air advection/northwest flow. H85s will drop back below 8C by late Wednesday evening. Radiational cooling will allow for chilly temperatures once again over Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware ranging from low 40s to low 50s depending on location. High pressure moves in control for Thursday for the region with the influence of the upper level trough. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s over Pennsylvania and western Maryland, to mid 60s to upper 60s over Delaware and Maryland. Sunshine will prevail over the region. Thursday night will also feature radiational cooling conditions combined with low dewpoints, so this will allow for well below normal lows. Once again a frost potential is possible for western Maryland and northern Pennsylvania perhaps into the Poconos. Lows will range from low 30s near Bradford to upper 40s in Philadelphia. Lows over Maryland will range from the upper 30s near Deep Creek to low 50s in Washington DC. Over Delaware lows will be pretty uniform with lows along the coast in the lower 50s to upper 40s over northern Delaware. Friday looks to be once again a nice day with sunshine and high pressure in control under the influence of a weak trough. Temperatures look seasonable to slightly below normal in the upper 50s to lower 70s near Washington DC. A few clouds will approach the region from the west, with thick clouds by evening as another front approaches the region. See more details on the Columbus Day weekend forecast in the "long term" section.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Forecast"(Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon Counties)(Updated 10/03)
The coming week looks pretty typical of October with slightly below normal temperatures all week and several frontal passages as wave lengths remain shorter in October allowing for more transient weather patterns. Sunday morning may allow for some patchy fog to form in the Lower Susquehanna Valley especially towards eastern York County in southern Lancaster County where there remains some residual moisture. Those places may see some locally dense fog down below .25miles. Fog should burn off by 830/9am. After a cool morning temperatures will rise to slightly below normal highs ranging from the mid 60s over the elevations above 900ft to upper 60s over the southern portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley towards Lancaster County. Sunshine will prevail most of the day with high pressure in control and a downsloping westerly wind. Clear skies and calm winds will allow for a chilly night Sunday night as dewpoints remain quite dry in the upper 40s. Lows will range from the low 40s over northern Dauphin County around Halifax to Williamstown to Ono in Lebanon County and also in Perry County from Newport on westward. Lows elsewhere will be in the mid 40s. Monday looks to be a generally nice day with brilliant sunshine after patchy morning radiation fog across Franklin and Adams Counties along the South Mountain foothills. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal with highs in the mid 60s for the entire area with a few lower 60s over the higher elevations in Adams, Franklin, Perry, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties. Monday night will feature a very chilly night; one of the coldest of the season. With calm winds, clear skies, and dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s, low temperatures will fall quickly overnight at the rate of 2-5degrees/hour. Lows will drop into the upper 30s for areas in favorable radiating locations such as central York County, the foothills of South Mountain in Adams County, Amberson Valley in Franklin County, the ridge valleys in Dauphin and Lebanon Counties, and Perry County. Areas in the higher elevations and over urban heat island effect locations such as central Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster lows will be more manageable in the low to mid 40s. I would not be surprised to hear of a very light frost across far northern Dauphin County just east of Millersburg or across Amberson Valley in northern Franklin County. Keep in mind frosts can form from 2m lows in the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday will feature morning sunshine with increasing clouds throughout the day giving way to highs in the mid 60s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures again will be a few degrees below normal. By evening an alto-stratus deck will begin to dominate the valley. Tuesday night will feature milder temperatures than the few previous nights courtesy of cloud cover and a southwest flow. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which are a hair above normal.

For Wednesday temperatures will be near seasonable levels to slightly above normal under the southwest flow ahead of the front. Highs will range from the upper 60s for elevations above 1000ft to low 70s for most other locations. A mid 70 reading is possible for areas such as Lancaster. A few very early morning rain showers are possible, but amounts look very light and spotty with the better dynamics to our north and west. Sunshine will begin to peak out later in the day. By evening skies will begin to clear from west to east with falling temperatures as the front moves through with another upper level trough. Wednesday night will be cool as winds decouple with lows in the upper 40s for most of the region, which is right around normal for this time of year. Some guidance suggests Wednesday is the best chance at above normal temperatures in the 14-16 day time frame. Thursday looks nice with high pressure in control and brilliant sunshine with highs slightly below normal in the mid 60s for most areas with a few upper 60s near Lancaster and downtown York. With low dewpoints once again, Thursday night will be very cool and lows will fall to similar readings as Monday night with upper 30s to lower 40s over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will rebound for the daytime hours of Friday and any patchy radiation fog will burn off by 830am. Sunshine will prevail for the morning before an increase in clouds ahead of another cold front. Once again though the better dynamics remain north of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Highs Friday will be slightly below normal again in the low to mid 60s. Average highs this time of year are in the upper 60s to 70. On a side note I find it comical I contradict myself mentioning averages for all the forecasts despite my rant about the term average in my afternoon thoughts section. Anyways for more details on the weekend forecast see the long term section below. In general a nice, cool Fall weekend is in store for the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

"Current Lower Susquehanna Valley Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast Marine and Boating Forecast"(Maryland and Delaware Coastal Forecast)(Updated 10/03)
It looks like a relatively quiet marine and boating weather week is in store for the Chesapeake Bay basin and the Atlantic coast along Delaware and Maryland. To start the week a weak secondary low over the Delmarva will move off the coast in response to the primary upper level low off the Great Lakes transitioning northeast through Ontario and Quebec. As the flow turns from southeasterly, seas will lower less than 5ft wave lengths along the coast and tidal levels in the Chesapeake will return to normal. A northwest flow will prevail Sunday with a slightly tightened pressure gradient transferring 20-30knot winds to the surface over the open water. Small craft advisory conditions are possible through Sunday evening with some gusty winds, but brilliant sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area this week, but high pressure will prevail Monday with sunshine and cooler Fall-like temperatures. Towards Tuesday the flow will turn a bit more southerly allowing for slightly warmer air and some weak channeling of water along the southern Chesapeake. But conditions will quickly change by Wednesday as another cold front moves through with cold air advection to follow with another tightened pressure gradient with 25knot small craft advisory threshold winds over much of the local waterways through Wednesday night. Once again high pressure will move in from the south Thursday through Friday with much cooler air, but calmer winds. Another cold front will approach the region towards the weekend with similar conditions ahead and after the frontal passage. Precipitation chances this week remain relatively slim as weak forcing of the fronts courtesy of the extended and trailing upper level lows keeps most of the precipitation dying off as they approach the Middle Atlantic. Any QPF through the week would likely be Tuesday night through Wednesday or Friday night, but totals would likely be less than a tenth of an inch. In general the transient pattern this week will be very reminiscent of typical cool Fall conditions. Happy sailing!!!

"Current Atlantic Coast Forecast Wave Heights and Chesapeake Bay Forecast Wind Direction/Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Updates on Winter Predictions" (Updated 10/03)
It was nice to see some signs of winter this week across the United States with currently many winter storm advisories and warnings being issued for the Rockies as a deep trough and low pressure will correlate to heavy mountain snowfall. But also recently across New England snowfall occurred with the second earliest on record 3inch snowfall for Mt. Mansfield in Vermont. Mount Washington also record 1.1inches with temperatures dropping into the upper teens. I imagine it looked wonderful with the fall foliage lined against the snow-white capped mountains of the Green, White, and Adirondack Mountains. This week my focus was analyzing the Pacific as we really have a pretty ideal Pacific for east coast troughing this week through the middle of October. A giant negative EPO ridge will move across the western United States towards next week along with a positive PNA. Also we are finally starting to see signs of the El Nino gaining a bit more footing as the SOI readings are beginning to show weaker positive daily reports. The westerly wind burst and Kelvin wave looks to have established some warmer SSTs over Nino regions 4 and 3.4 to remain relatively consistent this past week despite some impressive cooling over region 1 and 2. Signs are growing of the more favorable +AMM and +QBO towards November. Also the PDO still appears to be negative with a few cold pockets in the Gulf of Alaska vicinity, but it will not be nearly as negative as the last few winters and may perhaps leaving the negative PDO cycle. Statistics and correlations show that during +ENSO years a positive PNA may correlate to a below normal temperature winter, this has occurred on several occasions. But looking at the Atlantic, despite it being a favorable negative and west-based NAO through midmonth statistics prove that negative NAOs correlate to a switch to a positive NAO during winter. And then on the other hand colder than normal Octobers correlate to below normal temperature winters in the east. I emphasize these correlations, because what I have read this week is people putting too much emphasize on these correlations. Several select years including several 60s winters and the winter of 76-77 and 77-78 kept the negative NAO from October through the entire winter. Right now the pattern is pretty great looking at it from a teleconnective perspective, and as we move through October signs of the winter pattern will appear. This year is very unusual, and as I keep mentioning, analogs are really quite difficult to find. I still see conflicting signs, but for now I am quite pleased with my winter forecast.

Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 10/03)
It is exciting is not, to see pumpkins lining the streets and Fall leaves canvassing local roadways. Fall foliage is going to be hitting the height across the northern parts of Pennsylvania as Fall foliage will be entering peak colors likely by the end of this week through the 15th. Maples are showing brilliant reds along the mountainsides especially across Sullivan County through Bradford, Susquehanna, Wayne, Lackawanna, McKean, Warren, Crawford, Potter, Tioga Mercer, and Erie counties. Red maples along with birch are showing brilliants yellows and reds especially for elevations above 1800ft. First frosts have occurred in many of these areas with upper 20s reported in Potter, Tioga, McKean, and Warren counties the other evening which has enhanced the breakdown of the green chlorophyll. Oaks are not showing too much color, although extremities are beginning to show yellows or rustic browns especially for the higher elevations. The next coming week is perfect for those long drives along scenic RT 6 across the northern parts of Pennsylvania through Alleghany National forecast, which is reporting wonderful colors including some yellows from oaks. Across the central third of Pennsylvania along and just south of the interstate 80 corridor, colors will be nearing peak within the next 6-14 days with hardwood sugar and red maple beginning to reach heightened color. The common theme of below normal temperatures through September and continuing into October has allowed for some earlier color in some areas especially across the higher elevations towards Clearfield and western Centre County, but also along the Poconos. Color is reported as excellent near famous state parks such as World's End State Park in the endless mountain region. The next two weekends look wonderful for a weekend stay in the Poconos to do some fall exploring near Bushkill Falls. Across the coal country of Schuylkill County birch and aspen are turning brilliant yellows and those trees should reach peak in the next seven days. Farther south in Pennsylvania the southeastern region near Philadelphia is still reporting patchy conditions as oaks dominate most of the southern portion of Pennsylvania's forests. Most maples though or ornamental trees and invasive species are showing some reds. Across the south-central region colors are a bit more prevalent with some color change across the South Mountain region up through the Blue Ridge. Once again oaks dominate the forests, so color will always be delayed likely to late October. Across the Laurel Highlands, high elevation has allowed for more color with areas near Johnstown being reported at 25% color change and should reach peak in the next 1-2 weeks. Across western Pennsylvania, conditions have been dry allowing for more plentiful color than some surrounding areas. It looks like a week or two to take a trip out to Shawnee State Park. Towards Maryland, western portions of the state along and western of the Cumberland Gap are showing near peak conditions especially towards Garret County with the higher elevations. Frosts have been recorded in this areas enhancing color. Across the rest of Maryland and through Delaware color conditions are similar to southeastern Pennsylvania with colors being patchy courtesy of the abundance of late turning oaks. Overall color should be enhanced this week as days will be sunny with cooler than normal temperatures followed by very chilly nights. A few frosts are possible across northern Pennsylvania Tuesday night and later in the week. Take a Sunday drive and few the beauty of Mother Nature at some of the fine state parks in the Middle Atlantic.

Fall Foliage Reports... Link

"Long Term Outlook" (7-14 Day Time Frame) (Updated 10/03)
Towards the Columbus Day weekend, the weather gets quite interesting. A strong cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley with steep lapse rates, courtesy of the -10 deviation temperatures behind the front. Current model guidance is suggesting a front passage around late Friday through early Saturday, but being so far away timing is a bit low confidence of a forecast at this point. In any case 12z 10/3/09 GFS was interesting show some Gulf moisture streaming up the Ohio Valley and forming some convection along the front in that region on Friday. Heightened winds aloft may even a pose a threat to strong thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley. But once again a 996mb upper level low lagging behind the front in the Great Lakes will tend to steal the dynamics north of the Middle Atlantic allowing the front to weaken in terms of precipitation. H85s then drop below 7C for much of the region on Saturday with cold air advection allowing for below normal temperatures. It remains uncertain how much QPF is possible over the Middle Atlantic, but for now it appears the front will be weakening as it approaches from the west. Saturday afternoon may be partly cloudy as the front moves out to sea. Cool Canadian air moves in for Sunday with well below normal temperatures as H85s drop below 0C for all of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. High pressure to our west looks to be in control, so Sunday should be nice but cool outside. The flow begins to turn more northwesterly later in the day Sunday allowing some lake effect precipitation in diurnal cumulus to advect over the region especially later in the day and towards Monday. For Columbus Day a few flakes cannot even be ruled out for elevations above 2100ft in northern Pennsylvania as air column samples will be partly below freezing. Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will occur for Columbus day over the Middle Atlantic, with downsloping allowing for some sunshine towards southeastern Pennsylvania, southern Maryland, and all of Delaware. Looking towards next week, temperatures look nearly 10-20degrees below normal over the region as the coldest air of the season moves over the region. 12z 10/03/09 ECMWF even shows early signs of lake effect possibilities towards New York State, there may even be some higher elevation snow in this time frame across New England perhaps a bit more widespread than the previous event. Today the ECMWF center even gave special access to 2m temperatures in this long range time frame from the 12z model run showing highs in the low 50s to 40s for many areas in this time frame with mid 50s towards Maryland and Delaware. In any case next week is looking well below normal with possible lake effect rain and daily alto-cumulus over much of the Middle Atlantic. It should not last too long with the (-2)-(-3) deviation trough as a modifying ridge moves over the region later in the week before another troughs move in. The pattern remains transient, but generally below normal temperature wise and near to below normal precipitation.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(October)(Updated 9/13)
This monthly outlook is going to be posted a bit early this year for October. I never issued a September forecast and now it is the middle of the month so I decided to forecast October instead of the last two weeks in September. Therefore this outlook is a bit lower than normal for confidence. As many probably could guess I am going with a colder than normal October. Long term GFS especially is consistent with trough formation over the east coast and an amplified western ridge. Latest ECMWF is also steadfast, but not amplified with weaker western ridge and a weaker trough, but they are still evident. Teleconnections are a bit more favorable also for a cool pattern across the east coast. It appears the PNA will be spiking highly positive towards October 1 with the NAO and AO more towards neutral. As far as precipitation it appears near normal precipitation is likely with a drier start to the month gradually becoming more active. If the cooler than normal October verifies historical odds definitely favor a colder than normal with quite a bit of snow for the upcoming winter. I guess all we can wish for is not another October 2008 which was extremely mild and again followed by a mild winter. Looking on a more global perspective there is a building dome of cold air over the Arctic towards Greenland and northern Canada. This cold air will continue to build and likely be a catalyst for bits of cold air to break off and surge to the United States with strong cold fronts.

Temperature- As I already mentioned I believe this month will feature cooler than normal temperatures will a general trough over the Middle Atlantic. I think areas north of I-80 will have the colder anomalies as occasional stalled fronts affect southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware with clouds and precipitation while highs to the north allow radiational cooling for northern Pennsylvania. I am going with a general (-1)-(-2) temperature anomaly for most areas with a generally (0)-(-.5) for the metros of Philadelphia and Washington DC. Frosts and freezes do look likely for most all locations this month with periods of colder than normal weather. Especially early in the month frosts may occur with a high pressure over the region and a trough.

Precipitation- Precipitation looks to be near normal for the month with a dry start to the month as a strong high pressure looks to be over much of the eastern United States in a general benign weather pattern. Towards the middle of the month and the end the active storm track should resume similarities to earlier in the month of September. The subtropical jet will feature periods of storms tracking up the east coast. As far as snowfall, most likely at some point in the month areas, in the lake effect snow belts of Maryland and Pennsylvania will see at least flurries. It is too early to tell whether any system like October 2009 will affect the region.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 0.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.50inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

Fall Reflections... (Blizzard92)
Colors are a bit more brilliant in northern Dauphin County than towards Harrisburg. Fishing Creek Valley has evident yellows, reds, and oranges.
Fall Reflections...

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TheRasberryPatch- Yep, most of that rain will track through Erie and such areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - i know you said we won't see much rain, but just curious, is all that rain in the missouri valley just going to slide east? that football game last night the rain was pouring down in missouri
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
When something sounds too good to be true . . .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weathergeek5-
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
here is the latest discussion on El nino:

EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
8 October 2009


ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory



Spanish Version


Synopsis: El Nino is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

A weak El Nino continued during September 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained nearly unchanged across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). Since the transition to El Nino conditions during June, the weekly values of the Nino-3.4 index have remained between 0.7oC and 0.9oC (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Nino with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. In addition, two westerly wind bursts were observed over the western equatorial Pacific, the first occurring early in the month and the second occurring near the end of the month (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Nino.

A majority of the model forecasts for the NIno 3.4 SST index (Fig. 6) suggest that El Nino will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Nino-3.4 SST index of 1.0oC or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Nino (3-month Nino-3.4 SST index in excess of 1.5oC) during the fall and winter, but in recent months some models, including the NCEP CFS, have over-predicted the degree of warming observed so far in the Nino-3.4 region (Fig. 7). Based on the model forecasts, the seasonality of El Nino, and the continuation of westerly wind bursts, El Nino is expected to strengthen and most likely peak at moderate strength.

Expected El Nino impacts during October-December 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, and below-average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest. Other potential impacts include a continued suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity, along with above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall for the Northern Plains.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA%u2019s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Nino/La Nino are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 November 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

Link

SOURCE:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1743
weathergeek5- Hahaha, time so sit back with popcorn lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
The "other site" is freaking because one of the mets mentioned the comeback of the Southeast ridge.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1743
TheRasberryPatch- I am not sure if numbers for statistics like that were produced when averages were calculated. If so, I have no idea where to find them haha, sorry.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Stanb - that man was one of the smartest i think to ever live. to come up with physics and calculus like he did. amazing.

i think the show made him look a bit crazy. i tried not to pay too much attention to the ranting and raving the character was doing
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - on the history channel last night was a very interesting show about Isaac Newton and how he was a huge theorist on the end of the world. it was a good show from what i saw. his date is 2060. he based it all on symbols and the like from the book of Daniel and the book of Revelation. he had some other years where he was pretty close. he seemed to have the feeling that God already had things planned. anyway, just another theory.



RasberryPatch, I tried to watch that last night... It got old. I was waiting for the punch line. But a 40 mins. in it hadn't come.

He seemed to me to be as mad as a hatter, and crazy. But he did found physics.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
hello i have a vary wet vary windy and vary powerfull strong storm on the way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Blizz - do you know if there is some data on first freeze and frost for our area that is kind of like a spread distribution or similar graph. i was just curious about how close most freeze or frost occur around Oct. 12th
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Blizz - on the history channel last night was a very interesting show about Isaac Newton and how he was a huge theorist on the end of the world. it was a good show from what i saw. his date is 2060. he based it all on symbols and the like from the book of Daniel and the book of Revelation. he had some other years where he was pretty close. he seemed to have the feeling that God already had things planned. anyway, just another theory.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
TheRasberryPatch- Not exactly sure on the rainfall, but .25-.5inches is possible for our area. It appears that starting Sunday highs will drop in upper 50s, then Tuesday highs are in the upper 40s, low 50s.

wxgeek723- Haha... Well I am not any conspiracy theorist so I will leave it at that. Just quite a bit of hype for what makes for interesting books, movies, media influences, etc.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Hey Bliz. I know this is random and out-of-the-blue, but out of curiosity, where do you stand in those 12/21/2012 rumors? Do you think it's all bullcrap, or...?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Blizz.

i don't see in your blog how much if any rain from the front you forecast or the models.

when do you thnk the bottom will drop out?

looks like this weekend i will be cleaning around the gardens and yard. right on time for Columbus Day. Pretty much you can forecast very similar conditions within a week of Columbus Day. I have been cleaning gardens for almost 20 years on my own and for some reason that seems to be the time.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, interesting pattern. No too often they get near 0F for lows across the northern plains in North Dakato in early October. Anyways the low will be moving north of our area and just like the last two or three rains the precipitation shield will generally be too our north and west. That is not to say we won't get some rain though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - don't make me come there and knock some sense back into your head. it's only October or Rocktober or Wiztober. look at how many times you looked ahead last winter only to be discouraged as the time got closer to zero. keep you mind on the picture. lol

just as long as the visible sat and regional radar are still in the blog as well as the current weather map. its how i keep track of your blog when you aren't. lol

so the low pressure attached to the front won't make it into our area? that looks like a lot of rain in the lower plains and missouri valley streaming northeast

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
NEwxguy- I will try to get a new blog either out tomorrow or Saturday. It will be in a weather pattern format and not the typical weekly weather format. I just want to change it up a bit, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz,when you look at the weather pattern starting next week,summer becomes a distant memory,going to be a lot to watch,I'll be intereste in your take on the pattern we are entering.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15053
TheRasberryPatch- Haha, I had to look what I even posted; I have been so caught up with analyzing next week. Anyways yes there are changes, the front is moving a bit quicker allowing for an earlier arrival for rainfall. The heaviest rain should be northwest of our area in northwest Pennsylvania where they could see 1inch of rain. Our area will be more towards the start of the dirty warm sector which may allow temperatures to rise quite a bit if the warm front comes far enough north. Rainfall amounts around here will vary depending on longitude. In fact some guidance suggests very little rain in our area with a sharp-gradient. We will have to wait and see where it steps up. I am going a bit more optimistic for Saturday with clouds clearing out by afternoon. Overall I think the weekend will be generally nice, but cool and breezy.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Blizz - is your blog forecast still accurate for tomorrow and Saturday? looking at the radar it appears the rain is streaming up from the tennessee valley and has already invaded SW Pa. also it appears the clouds are on our doorstep. any changes?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Everyone if you get a chance take a look at the 12z GFS model run throughout the entire run. It is interesting to note because you can tell we no longer are in a Summer continental USA weather pattern. There are series of Great Lakes storm, coastal storms, clippers, large cold fronts, Ohio Valley storms; quite interesting. Looks like the next two weeks are going to be very volatile.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting NEwxguy:
snowstorms are very rare in October,although certainly flurries get common toward the end of October,even November although a better chance,snowstorms are still rare.Dec 1st is the real start of our snow season.
Our snow season usually starts near the end of December, but last year we had our first snow in the middle of Nov, which is pretty rare!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
Quoting Stanb999:



Summer is my boring time... Temps 50-80, gentle rain, with the occasional thunderstorm. But even the storms aren't strong. The mountains make them move around us.


Winter is when our weather is interesting. :-)
I bet you get to experience lots of snowy weather, considering where you live, that must be awesome! =)

Oh yes, mountains can do that to ya! I can't tell you how many times I've seen squall lines moving through TN and then fizzle out once they hit the mountains :/
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
a beautiful day outside. not too windy, Blizz.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Blizz,I agree was outside and except for the wind temps aren't bad.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15053
Good afternoon all!!! Nice sunny day outside.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
NEwxguy, you are 100% correct, same for me here in SW CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7058
snowstorms are very rare in October,although certainly flurries get common toward the end of October,even November although a better chance,snowstorms are still rare.Dec 1st is the real start of our snow season.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15053
Quoting synthman19872003:
Sorry, I guess I just assumed that snow occurred in the Northeast quite often in October. Yeah Rasberry, I must be thinking about the areas around the Great Lakes, they certainly DO have some Wintry stuff this time of year! Oct and Nov typically are our dry months down here, it gets rather boring :/



Summer is my boring time... Temps 50-80, gentle rain, with the occasional thunderstorm. But even the storms aren't strong. The mountains make them move around us.


Winter is when our weather is interesting. :-)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Sorry, I guess I just assumed that snow occurred in the Northeast quite often in October. Yeah Rasberry, I must be thinking about the areas around the Great Lakes, they certainly DO have some Wintry stuff this time of year! Oct and Nov typically are our dry months down here, it gets rather boring :/
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
Quoting synthman19872003:
I'm jealous of y'all up North LOL! I want snow in Oct! I've never seen flakes fall before Halloween...


I am just going to school in NH right now, but I live on Cape Cod, MA. SO normally I would be too jealous of the people living up north.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
synthman - we don't see that much snow around here in Oct. rarely do we get anything accumulating. mostly it is flurries from a passing cold front or one that already passed. now farther north around the lakes, most definitely
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Wind was ferocious yesterday, my deck furniture was all over the place.Things are quieting down slowly today.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15053
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
NWS Gray, ME is saying possible rain and snow showers next week.
I'm jealous of y'all up North LOL! I want snow in Oct! I've never seen flakes fall before Halloween...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
NWS Gray, ME is saying possible rain and snow showers next week.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
shoreacres- O my goodness, how many darn 90degree days are you going to get this year, lol? Anyways thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Love reading the reports and seeing the pics.

Today, on the upper Texas coast? High of 92 and heat index of 107. We're gritting our teeth, trying to pretend we're anywhere else!

Have a great evening and rest of the week, you northern sorts. Down here in the south we have weather envy!
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You do not realize how much I hope we get a flurry at least next week. I guess I can wait a couple weeks. By the way do you think we could actually see snow this year as early as November?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Quoting upweatherdog:


The poplar trees are fully leafed, and they are somewhat week trees. The maples are glowing red with color, while the oaks are only starting to change.
I bet it looks pretty! I hope to head up to the Blue Ridge Parkway this weekend (probably Sunday) to get some pics of the colors; they're in their peak right now up there around Grandfather Mountain and Linn Cove Viaduct :) Just hope the weather will cooperate though...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
upweatherdog- Yep, I really enjoy it. The special SWEWT T features are great for analyzing temperature vertical profiles and such.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
I learned how to use the Bufkit program, and it's pretty usefull. Looking at the latest GFS Bufkit data, the GFS actually shows conditions pretty favorable for accumulating snow, at least for this time of the year. This will be pretty interesting, as lake instability is in the moderate range, and high omega values are located in the snow growth zone.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1371
Snowlover2010- Probably not, lol take a look at the 18z GFS meteogram for Harrisburg... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting Blizzard92:
upweatherdog- How's your fall foliage? If leaves remain on trees the wet snow could pose some problems.


The poplar trees are fully leafed, and they are somewhat week trees. The maples are glowing red with color, while the oaks are only starting to change.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1371
101. Snowlover2010
1:25 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
Any chance of us actually seeing winter precip next week?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
100. Snowlover2010
1:24 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
Anyone else see the snow on teh 18z DGEX? Or am I crazy?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
99. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
upweatherdog- How's your fall foliage? If leaves remain on trees the wet snow could pose some problems.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
98. upweatherdog
12:55 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
Evening Blizz.

It looks like I could see some accumulating snow Sunday night as a strong shortwave moves through. With deep moisture, northerly winds, temps below freezing, and very high over water instability, a few inches of snow cant be ruled out. The models are putting out anywhere from 0.25 to 0.75 of total QPF over the central U.P. With snow to water ratios around 10/1, there is a slight possibility of around 6 inches of snow.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1371
97. synthman19872003
12:46 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
Wow Mason803, amazing pics! Looks like it was VERY windy up there in the Northeast!

Here it was just breezy, but warm too, in the 80Fs! The Southeast should stay unseasonably warm for the next few days :)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
96. originalLT
12:23 AM GMT on October 08, 2009
Thanks for the photos Mason, hope your trees survive, trees are pretty tough if they are healthy and yours sure look to be. Hurigo, I mentioned here in Blizz's blog about the "plethora" of acorns this year. Right after I mentioned it there was an article in AOL.News about the tremendous crop this year, it said the trees seem to go in cycles varying from 2-7 years. I know last year where I live, Stamford CT., we had very little, this year incredible. They were coming down like bombs!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7058

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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