The Northwest Wind of Fall...

By: Zachary Labe , 9:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 9/26)
Looking back at the past year in weather across the Northeast, I find it hard to pinpoint any storm of any significance. Not that this is a bad thing, as the relatively quiet in nationwide weather is probably better for the economy; but it is interesting how benign the weather pattern really has been. Yes there have been several extreme weather anomalies, for instance take the recent Atlanta metro flooding with up to 19inches of rain, but looking on a large-scale level it is hard to find much. Fortunately hurricane season 2009 was extremely quiet as expected with only some minor impacts to the United States coastline. Looking at the overall pattern, it appears most tropical activity is going to continue to quiet down so hopefully those along the coastline can continue to breath a sigh of relief. Even the winter of 2008-2009 featured hardly anything of record, perhaps just a short January arctic blast with a day of negative lows but again nothing of too much memory. Large-scale storms were hard to come by even causing the winter to be one of the driest on record for the Middle Atlantic. Then as we entered Spring, Vortex2 sent out there mission of tracking and researching tornadoes; but we have one of the quietest tornado seasons in recent memory this year. Then Summer comes along with well below normal temperatures for most of the country. Sure the Texans would not agree with that statement, but looking on a widespread level and not pin-pointing extreme weather anomalies, hot/hazy/humid weather was hard to come by. And then as earlier mentioned we enter hurricane season, which turns into the quietest in recent record. Now I suppose we are fortunate to have the lack of extreme weather, but it sure is interesting how quiet the pattern has been. I wonder when this will change? In any case I guess I cannot call the Lower Susquehanna Valley this year "where storms come to die," because the entire country has been lacking in storm activity. In any case as Joe Bastardi always says, "Enjoy the weather! It's the only weather you've got!"

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Weather Map"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 9/26)
Relatively high confidence forecast this week looks likely with a bit of active weather earlier in the week transitioning to cool and dry weather later in the week. 1000mb low pressure will be moving up through the Ohio Valley across the Northern Middle Atlantic overnight Saturday into Monday. A moderate 35knot low level jet and isentropic lift will allow plentiful moisture to development streaming northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to near 1.75inches which is 1-2STD deviations above normal. GFS in particular shows a period of moderate to heavy Saturday night across the entire region, but especially southern Pennsylvania through Maryland and Delaware. At times Saturday night rainfall rates will approach .5inches per hour as the low level jet strengthens. Water vapor loops and current visible satellite already show a large expanse of clouds and moisture aloft with a dense stratiform stratus cloud deck dropping conditions to IFR conditions Saturday with ceilings as low as 300ft. Moderate low level shear will also promote some breezy conditions Saturday out of the south-southwest near 15mph. With low stratus and widespread rain with RH values near 100%, low temperatures Saturday night will not drop too much from dewpoint values in the mid to upper 50s with low 60s for Washington DC. Rainfall will continue much of the night as the low progresses east-northeast out towards the Atlantic Sunday morning. Rainfall totals will be moderate soaking rainfall with 1-2inch totals over the entire Middle Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall totals will likely be over western Maryland and the southern Laurel Highlands where orographic lift will enhance rainfall rates overnight. A few timing discrepancies arise between the models for the end of the stratiform rain, but for most areas it appears the rain will be done by 12pm-1pm with scattered alto-stratus clouds through the rest of the day and occasional drizzle over northeastern Pennsylvania in the Poconos. Under a southwesterly flow ahead of a negatively tilted trough, highs will rise warmer than Saturday in the mid to upper 70s for areas in Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania with highs in the low 70s along and north of interstate 80. H85s rise to near 13C and with a few peaks of sunshine, an 80degree high or two cannot be ruled out especially for the major metropolitan region. Inversion should maintain low ceilings over the mountains throughout the day as low as 500ft (MVFR conditions). Skies remain mostly cloudy through the evening into Sunday night as an advancing steep trough moves through the Ohio Valley. A few areas of clearing may develop, especially in the east to perhaps aid in fog development. A linear vertical change in humidity aloft though will be partial to stratus development and not fog, but a few areas of dense fog (.25mile visibility) cannot be ruled out overnight Sunday. With high RH values over 75% and mostly cloudy skies, lows will again not drop off too much generally into the low 60s for most of Delaware and Maryland with upper 50s for most of Pennsylvania and far western Maryland. Monday features an interesting day with our first true Autumn front. Crashing H85 heights below 10C accompanied by a steep trough and tight pressure gradient will allow for a strong cold frontal passage with gusty winds and possible rain showers. Veering wind profiles aloft and moderate low level shear with helicity values near 534 m2/s2 during Monday will cause the potential for an isolated strong wind gust over northern Pennsylvania. A strong upper level low, 984mb, advancing quickly through Quebec and Ontario will be the catalyst for the gusty winds. Looking at convective indices, CAPE values only rise to near 50 j/kg profiles for most of the region. Areas south of I-80, away from the better dynamics will escape with only rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm. A low-topped squall line is highly possible Monday morning from New York State south through extreme northern Pennsylvania. 0-6km shear values approach 60knots and any higher core thunderstorm that forms could mix down some gusts of 50mph to the surface especially towards the Great Lakes. QPF totals will only be near .25inches for most areas with only a frontal rain band. A weak thermodynamic field should inhibit most thunderstorm development under a moderate CIN environment. At this time I am not too concerned for the Middle Atlantic, with any squall line probably limited towards New England. Monday will generally featured rain showers immediately along the front with partly to mostly alto-cumulus clouds throughout the day. Highs will be in the low 70s for most all areas dropping steadily with a frontal passage for western Pennsylvania around 8am, 12pm for central Maryland and Pennsylvania, and after 3pm for the rest of the area. A 277degree cyclonic flow will presume after the frontal passage for Monday night with breezy conditions under the tight pressure gradient. Gusts above 1500ft will be near 35mph with gusts in the valleys near 25-30mph. Dewpoints will be on the fall also Monday along with temperatures with lows chilly near 39degrees for extreme northern Pennsylvania with lows in the 40s for most of central, northeastern, and western Pennsylvania. Lows for Maryland and Delaware will be slightly milder courtesy of the later frontal passage with lows in the 50s to near 60 for Baltimore and Washington DC.

Tuesday will feature a cyclonic northwest 314degree flow with a bit of lake effect precipitation for far northwestern Pennsylvania. Lake temperatures in the 70s with highs in the 50s up in that region will promote some scattered rain showers with QPF generally at or below .1inches. Much of Tuesday looks to remain typical of a northwest flow with widespread clouds over the mountains and some clearing to the east courtesy of downsloping. Highs will be near 10degrees below normal with H85s around +2C. Across central Maryland and all of Delaware highs will be in the mid to upper 60s including Washington DC. Across western Maryland up through western and central Pennsylvania highs will range from the upper 50s to low 60s. For northern Pennsylvania highs will be in the mid to upper 50s with a few low 50s possible across Potter and McKean Counties. Tuesday night will feature mostly cloudy skies over the region with a semi-relaxation of the gusty winds from 20mph down to 10mph. Lows will range in the 40s for most areas north of the Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor. Across areas south of that line lows in the 50s will be the common place. Wednesday will feature a reinforcing shot of cold air as a closed 500mb low moves through southern Canada with a weak-undefined cold front draped through the Northeast. This will allow for the coldest air of the season with H85s dropping at or below 0C through the Mason-Dixon Line. Highs Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday's highs in the 50s and 60s for all areas under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Once again a few lake effect rain showers will cause a few hundredths of an inch of rain in the northwestern parts of the state. But also a few rain showers could be across the rest of western and central Pennsylvania associated with the advancing shortwave. Wednesday night will feature an advancing eastward Anti-cyclone, which will allow for clearing skies for much of the Middle Atlantic. But up across northern New England, the Adirondacks, White Mountains, and Green Mountains will likely pick up the first snow of the year. Typically in late September and early October H85s must be around (-4)-(-6)C for snowflakes, and that looks possible towards the mountains with an upslope orographic lift event. Elevations above 4000ft may pick up a coating to inch of snow overnight, so for those in the region you may want to check out the peaks especially towards Mt. Mansfield early Thursday morning. Lows Wednesday night for the Middle Atlantic will range from the mid 30s over northern Pennsylvania to low 50s near Washington DC. The cold pool aloft centers itself over the region for Thursday with the associated high pressure, 1024mb. With H85s below 0C through most of the Middle Atlantic a few cold nights are certainly in store. Thursday will feature sunshine generally over the entire region with a few clouds over the higher elevations of western Maryland and Pennsylvania about 1700ft. With dewpoints in the 30s over the entire region, it will feel pretty chilly with highs in the mid 50s for northern Pennsylvania up to mid 60s for southern Maryland and southern Delaware. Thursday night will be the coldest night of the young season with dewpoints in the 30s with clear skies and calm winds ideal for radiational cooling. Lows will likely fall at or below freezing for the northern parts of Pennsylvania with patchy frost in the I-80 corridor. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are expected elsewhere. I would not be surprised though if these low numbers get colder with frosts as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike and northern Maryland near Garret County. After some patchy morning fog and frost Friday morning, sunshine will prevail through the afternoon with once again well below normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s throughout the region. Once again ideal radiational cooling conditions for Friday night, but a few clouds, cirrus, may try to work in late overnight. Still frosts are possible on a widespread level with lows ranging from 30-45 over the Middle Atlantic.

"Regional Radars"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lower Susquehanna Valley Forecast"(Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon Counties)(Updated 9/26)
Well below normal temperature week is in store for the Lower Susquehanna Valley along with a decent soaking rain. Increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico associated with a low pressure system moving across northern Virginia will allow for a period of moderate to heavy rain Saturday night. Increasing boundary layer southeast winds will allow moisture to pile up along the southern facing ridges causing low clouds with ceilings as low as 300ft and patchy fog, visibilities around 3-5miles. Also some stronger winds aloft may cause it to be a bit breezy during the rain making it feel quite chilly outside Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Lows Saturday night will be similar to dewpoint values in the mid to upper 50s over the valley with a few colder numbers for elevations above 1000ft in northern Dauphin and Lebanon Counties along with Franklin and Adams Counties. Rainfall amounts will be a widespread 1-2inches over the region with highest totals along South Mountain courtesy of the favored upslope enhancement. Rain should be ending by early Sunday morning as the low pulls off to the northeast across Long Island on off the coast. Under a more southwest flow Sunday conditions will try to improve, but with an inversion stratus clouds may be hard to budge especially during the first half of the day. With slightly rising temperatures aloft, highs will be several degrees warmer than Saturday rounding out in the upper 70s near York and Lancaster to mid 70s from the Pennsylvania turnpike corridor on northward. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail most of the day with patchy morning drizzle and fog. Any additional rainfall will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch. Sunday night will feature partly cloudy skies over the region with a slightly southwest breeze ahead of a steep south-north facing trough advancing east from the Great Lakes. Coupled with a strong upper level low in Canada, the cold frontal passage will be the first to pose more Autumn characteristics. But overnight Sunday lows will be in the mid 50s throughout much of the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which is actually a tad above normal. Monday will be the cold front passage around noon with a chance of a low-topped rain shower squall line that may pull some of the gusty winds aloft to the surface. Best dynamics remain north of Harrisburg though in this instance. In any case the narrow precipitation frontal band should only cause a little bit of rain with amounts no more than .25inches. As the front moves through temperatures will slowly fall Monday with highs ranging from low 70s over Franklin, Cumberland, Adams, and Perry Counties to mid 70s over Lancaster and Lebanon counties. Breezy conditions will prevail by evening courtesy of cold air advection and the northwest flow. Monday night will be a bit breezy and partly cloudy with lows ranging from upper 40s in northern Perry, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties to low 50s for Lancaster County. Winds should not exceed 25-30mph for the most part. Tuesday will feature a typical northwest flow with partly cloudy skies over the eastern parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley courtesy of downsloping, but clouds over the western half especially in Franklin County. Highs will slowly rise throughout the day and struggle to reach the 60degree mark for elevations above 900ft. The cities of Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster will see highs in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday night the winds will finally begin to settle and skies will slowly clear ahead of another advancing shortwave. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s over the region with dewpoints in the low 40s or perhaps upper 30s over northern and western Perry County.

Wednesday features the cold pool aloft centering over the Northeast as another shortwave in Canada accompanies a weak undefined cold front that will move through during the day. H85s heights will drop below 0C causing the coldest conditions of the season. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Wednesday over the Lower Susquehanna Valley with a chance of a few spotty rain showers. Precipitation totals generally though will remain at or below a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s over the region. Wednesday night conditions begin to clear out for a cold night as winds decouple towards the pre-dawn hours of Thursday allowing lows to dip into the low 40s for the northern half of the valley with mid 40s for areas in Lancaster and York County. Mostly sunny skies will prevail Thursday after some patchy morning river fog that will form near the Clarks Ferry Bridge courtesy of the extreme water/air temperature contrast. Thursday will be a beautiful Fall day with highs in the low to mid 60s over the region with brilliant sunshine. Dewpoints will drop into the 30s by evening as winds will relax as high pressure approaches from the west. Thursday night will feature the coldest conditions so far with lows possibly into the mid to upper 30s especially north of the Pennsylvania turnpike. Depending on dewpoints, frost may be possible for some areas, but I will have updates throughout the week as the threat becomes closer. Friday again features a beautiful day with well below normal temperatures continued under brilliant sunny skies after patchy morning frost and radiation fog. Friday night will feature clear skies for the first half of the night with increasing stratus overnight ahead of the next shortwave/front combo for Saturday. Lows will be very cold Friday with even some guidance printing out lows in the low 30s. Again I will focus in more on this threat later in the week.

"Current Lower Susquehanna Valley Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast Marine and Boating Forecast"(Maryland and Delaware Coastal Forecast)(Updated 9/26)
It does not look like the best week for marine interests with several days of small craft advisory thresholds. A low pressure will move across northern Virginia and out to sea through Sunday afternoon. Low level wind shear will allow breezy winds to mix down to the surface with gusts over the Chesapeake Bay near 25knots through Sunday evening. Heavy rain will also occur with QPF totals near 1-1.5inches. Conditions will remain very poor through Sunday evening. Areas of advection fog may also form off the Atlantic coast a few nautical miles along with wave heights up to 6-8ft just offshore. Winds may approach 30-35knots along the Atlantic Ocean coastline through Sunday evening. Along the heightened waves and wind, the southeasterly flow will cause some coastal flooding as the southeast flow channels the water up the Chesapeake during high tide Saturday night through Sunday night. Prone splash-over areas may see tidal levels up to 2ft above normal. Monday another cold front approaches the region with a strong tightened pressure gradient causing an extension for small craft advisory conditions. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible along with spotty rain showers associated with the frontal passage. Winds will approach 30knots over the water Monday and this will last through Tuesday. The flow will turn more northwesterly allowing any coastal flooding to end by Monday morning. But wave heights and winds will remain in moderate levels for Fall standards through Tuesday evening. Another weak shortwave approaches the region Wednesday causing much colder conditions and breezy conditions again, but for now it looks like conditions remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Thursday and Friday, an anti-cyclone will allow for a relaxed pressure gradient with calmer seas and wind, but temperatures will be chilly with overnight lows in the 40s for coastal waterways. Water temperatures are just about now beginning their turn-around slowly cooling each week. By the weekend it appears a weak front approaches the Middle Atlantic, but nothing overly threatening looks likely.

"Current Atlantic Coast Forecast Wave Heights and Chesapeake Bay Forecast Wind Direction/Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Updates on Winter Predictions" (Updated 9/26)
This section has been recently added this week and will last through the month of October is replacement of the Garden/Agriculture section. This section allows me to keep updating how the ENSO is evolving and the northern Pacific situation. Also we will be able to see how conditions are presenting themselves in contrast with my winter forecast. By the way this year I have decided not to issue an updated winter outlook forecast like I did in 2008. Anyways interesting conditions are occurring across the equatorial Pacific which will make this winter one for the analog books. We have a present El Nino with +.75-1C anomalies across the ENSO regions. But what makes this +ENSO interesting are the indices completely promoting a contrasting appearance. For nearly the month of September the SOI readings have been negative more indicative of a La Nina than El Nino, which proves very interesting. Also with unusual QBO, ONI, and GLAAM readings that seem to support Nina, it is surprising to watch each day. While yes there will be fluctuations from time to time and yes people are quickly overreacting, it is so interesting how the name La Nina keeps on coming back. If we look back at last winter and even the Summer 2009, La Nina unexpectedly dominated the global weather pattern regime. And even this Fall there are a few slightly noticeable lingering La Nina effects in the Pacific. Now I am not saying a La Nina is coming this winter, but I am just throwing some ideas on the plate. Also it is interesting to look at the latest ENSO regions with cooling SST positive anomalies in regions 1+2, 3; but regions 3.4 and 4 have remained relatively steadfast. This is a sign of the weak footing the El Nino has, but also a sign the El Nino is still approaching being west based and not basin wide which is in correspondence with the forecast. Finally I want to mention the PDO. This is my biggest concern this winter as there are some select signs already that there may be a blasting Pacific jet. A large cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska is showing up on SST anomaly charts which is indicative of a negative PDO. But a few positive anomalies on the southern edge of the pool gives me hope that the PDO will not be as negative as last winter. Now these thoughts above are only really thoughts at this point as winter is an "educated guessing game." But one thing for sure is this winter is not going to behave strictly like any analogs. I can see reason for people to fear a warm winter again, but for now I do not see any reason for alarm. In the end I suppose Mother Nature will do what she wants to do.

Winter Outlook 2009-2010...Link

"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 9/26)
Ah next week is the start on one of my favorite months of the year, October. It is amazing that we are already almost a week into the official start of Fall and that some areas are seeing peak fall foliage. Looking first at Pennsylvania, northern Pennsylvania is seeing decent color courtesy of very chilly nights and a few frosts. Fall color in the maples is nearing peak in the week or two for elevations above 2200ft across Potter and Tioga Counties. Wildflowers are also in full bloom for northern Pennsylvania, but also region wide. Oaks are beginning to show some signs of yellows across northern Pennsylvania with invasive species and ornamental trees across northern Pennsylvania at or past peak. Brilliant oranges and reds will be likely by next weekend near the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon outside of Wellsboro. For those who have never ventured up that way, it is well worth the trip. Towards the central third of Pennsylvania including the Laurel Highlands, Ridge and Valley region, and the southern Poconos aspens are beginning to turn yellow along with birch across the coal country. Suburbia maples have turned red or showing signs, but mountains generally remain patchy with only some lighter greens, browns, or light yellows appearing in the Ridge and Valley Region. For the Laurel Highlands colors are decent with maples and even oaks beginning to show color. Peak fall foliage will likely be by the end of the first full week in October. The mountains of the Poconos are also showing color, but still have a bit before peak. Across the southern Pennsylvania color is a bit more spotty than the northern neighbors, but colors are still a few days to a week or two earlier than normal. Colors are now slightly evident showing on higher ridges, especially towards the western facing side of South Mountain. Peak fall foliage is looking likely for this region by mid October. For the Philadelphia region through Delaware and central/southern Maryland fall colors are very spotty, but now a bit more color is showing than just distressed and diseased trees. Sumac and other invasive species are turning red and ornamental trees are showing signs of color change. Maples are beginning to show small signs of reds and oranges, but oaks have quite a bit in this region before color change with peak fall foliage likely around late October this year. Finally western Maryland around the Garret County region or so is showing brilliant fall colors for the higher elevations and the next two weeks look wonderful for a drive out to this region. Maples and even oaks are showing through the mountain sides and farm country. Overall this week will allow for more evident color change by next weekend with very chilly nights and below normal temperatures all week. Also Thursday and Friday with the cold nights and sunny days will allow for the chlorophyll to break down in the leaves. Happy Fall!!!

Fall Foliage Reports... Link

"Long Term Outlook" (7-14 Day Time Frame) (Updated 9/26)
Towards next weekend it looks to be generally under a similar theme with below normal temperatures and possibly a weak front passing through the area Saturday, although I do not think it will be too much of a problem for the weekend. It is hard to believe next weekend is the first full weekend of October! Anyways I think the pattern is looking for interesting for the next two weeks. In October we start to see signs of patterns that may hold through the first half of winter. What makes the next two weeks interesting is the impressive west-based negative NAO which will reach its height during the first few days of October and slowly retreat back to neutral overtime. Also impressive above normal 500mb hPa heights are going to be located over the Hudson Bay and western Greenland forming a strong blocking pattern, which again will slowly relax by October 7-10. The pattern appears the first week or two of October is a series of troughs over the east coast with well below normal temperature anomalies and near normal precipitation. Towards mid October the pattern retrogrades as expected, remember my balance of equilibrium theory. With a trough then centered over the Rockies, we still enter a near normal to slightly below normal temperature pattern over the east coast as weak upper level lows rotate through the region courtesy of a negative EPO. As long as the NAO does not stay brutally negative most of the month, historical odds will favor a colder than normal winter as we will have a below normal temperature anomaly for the month. Overall I do not see any extreme warmth headed towards the Middle Atlantic anytime soon. A few bouts of warmer than normal temperatures are likely towards the second to third week in October as a trough forms over the west, but for now that looks temporary with GFS/GEFS means producing a positive PNA by mid month. Generally the pattern is reminiscent of typical slightly below normal temperature Octobers with a volatile pattern with occasional weak mid level ridges followed by quick weak troughs and associated upper level lows.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(October)(Updated 9/13)
This monthly outlook is going to be posted a bit early this year for October. I never issued a September forecast and now it is the middle of the month so I decided to forecast October instead of the last two weeks in September. Therefore this outlook is a bit lower than normal for confidence. As many probably could guess I am going with a colder than normal October. Long term GFS especially is consistent with trough formation over the east coast and an amplified western ridge. Latest ECMWF is also steadfast, but not amplified with weaker western ridge and a weaker trough, but they are still evident. Teleconnections are a bit more favorable also for a cool pattern across the east coast. It appears the PNA will be spiking highly positive towards October 1 with the NAO and AO more towards neutral. As far as precipitation it appears near normal precipitation is likely with a drier start to the month gradually becoming more active. If the cooler than normal October verifies historical odds definitely favor a colder than normal with quite a bit of snow for the upcoming winter. I guess all we can wish for is not another October 2008 which was extremely mild and again followed by a mild winter. Looking on a more global perspective there is a building dome of cold air over the Arctic towards Greenland and northern Canada. This cold air will continue to build and likely be a catalyst for bits of cold air to break off and surge to the United States with strong cold fronts.

Temperature- As I already mentioned I believe this month will feature cooler than normal temperatures will a general trough over the Middle Atlantic. I think areas north of I-80 will have the colder anomalies as occasional stalled fronts affect southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware with clouds and precipitation while highs to the north allow radiational cooling for northern Pennsylvania. I am going with a general (-1)-(-2) temperature anomaly for most areas with a generally (0)-(-.5) for the metros of Philadelphia and Washington DC. Frosts and freezes do look likely for most all locations this month with periods of colder than normal weather. Especially early in the month frosts may occur with a high pressure over the region and a trough.

Precipitation- Precipitation looks to be near normal for the month with a dry start to the month as a strong high pressure looks to be over much of the eastern United States in a general benign weather pattern. Towards the middle of the month and the end the active storm track should resume similarities to earlier in the month of September. The subtropical jet will feature periods of storms tracking up the east coast. As far as snowfall, most likely at some point in the month areas, in the lake effect snow belts of Maryland and Pennsylvania will see at least flurries. It is too early to tell whether any system like October 2009 will affect the region.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 3.69inches
Yearly Precipitation- 32.53inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Congratulations to Taz. Just wait until Bugs Bunny comes out of his hole. He will not be happy. hahaha

Blizz - i recall that picture from Stan and was glad it wasn't us. hmmmm. not sure I was in the state for that. I think I was in Disney. Did we get flurries at the end of the storm.

low of 41.2F

Mason - it appears VP2 is performing well


trp,

yeah, my vp2 has worked well since i replaced the transmitter. I recently bought the anemometer wireless transmitter kit to move my anemometer into a great location. I put an ad in the merchandiser for an antenna tower wanted. I got a hit right away. the tower was only 5 miles from my house! Anyway I plan on putting my anemomter in the middle of my field about 40 ft high. There is nothing to break up the wind and the gusts should come right off the ridgetop a mile to my west. it's going to be great. i'm so excited to get it installed.

high of 65f today with a trace of rain this morning. gust to 20mph eariler
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:
TheDawnAwakening- Well see we can use anomalies with SSTs in that region during the winter to figure heat content and hPa pressure mb measures intensity of lows, and with the other teleconnections you basically get a formula. But only a few select storms have taken the weak correlation between SSTs in that region and cyclogenesis. Teleconnections generally affect a large part of the globe and generally an entire western or eastern hemisphere. The impact of anamolous gulf stream SSTs and low intensity affects only a relatively small percentage of topography. Just my take on it all, but if you could do research for that formula mentioned above you could have interesting results. Keep in mind to use all low type strengths as lows track directly over the region and measure the -mb/3hr.


Thanks for the advice and input Blizzard. Yeah I am going to have to find the storm tracks of previous monster storms to affect the Northeast Urban Corridor, the storms that went out to sea and those that went inland and the individual NAO and PNA indexes for those storms. However given the limited historical data for SST anomalies, it will be difficult to measure out before say 1996 which will take away a ton of research for historical snowstorms.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting originalLT:
You're probably right Blizz, but there are ALOT of people who live in that area. Maybe TDA has a good idea! Also, I really hope things work out for you TDA, and you can stay in school, but the airforce may be a good alternative, I've heard of many guys who received a very good education and training in meteorology while in the service. Heaven knows the Airforce needs good meteorologists, so important for flying, etc.


Thanks the confidence boost.

I have taken into account the index and this is the name I came up with:
Remember this is a base plan right now research will need to be done to test this theorized index:
Northeast Coastal Oscillation Storm Index
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
TheDawnAwakening- Well see we can use anomalies with SSTs in that region during the winter to figure heat content and hPa pressure mb measures intensity of lows, and with the other teleconnections you basically get a formula. But only a few select storms have taken the weak correlation between SSTs in that region and cyclogenesis. Teleconnections generally affect a large part of the globe and generally an entire western or eastern hemisphere. The impact of anamolous gulf stream SSTs and low intensity affects only a relatively small percentage of global topography. Just my take on it all, but if you could do research for that formula mentioned above you could have interesting results. Keep in mind to use all low type strengths as lows track directly over the region and measure the -mb/3hr.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
You're probably right Blizz, but there are ALOT of people who live in that area. Maybe TDA has a good idea! Also, I really hope things work out for you TDA, and you can stay in school, but the airforce may be a good alternative, I've heard of many guys who received a very good education and training in meteorology while in the service. Heaven knows the Airforce needs good meteorologists, so important for flying, etc.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7728
Ok good point Blizzard, but what if somehow we can measure the intensity of any given storm based on its track, and SSTs which it tracked over and the state of the PNA and NAO?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
We can rename the region of 60W to 80W and at the latitude of 40N to 35N as the GSO 3.0 region, or Gulf Stream Oscillation 3.0 region. The temperature anomaly in this region could have significant impacts on the intensity and the track of winter storms. Also we can combine the effects of the NAO, PNA and Gulf Stream Oscillation 3.0 region as a PNANOAGSO index which says if the index is negative, that means we have a -PNA, +NAO and -GSO, which would not support the NUC snowstorms and be detrimental for an east coast snowstorm to happen. A positive index would be a -NAO, +PNA and +GSO index which would be superb for EAST COAST Cyclogenesis and a monster snowstorm for the NUC. Or the neutral phase which would be a combination of a +PNA, +NAO, and -GSO, or a -PNA, -NAO and +GSO. These indexes would indicate a chance for either of the two scenarios. I see the potential side effects and what not of not having a certain neutral this would happen. Let's say if we had a neutral phase of my made up system: however we have a +GSO, which would indicate higher SSTs in the 3.0 region then we would get more of an inland runner, and if we had a -GSO then we would have a storm out to sea with a combination of a PNA and NAO.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
TheDawnAwakening- Probably because the SSTs usually only affect areas within 50mi or so of the coast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Or a storm potential intensity index that measures both the PNA, NAO indexes and the SST anomalies associated with the Gulf Stream south of the NEw England coastline in the favorable region for cyclogenesis off the East Coast?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Blizzard, why don't we have like a SST measured Gulf Stream Oscillation or Atlantic Ocean Oscillation to measure the impact that warmer SST have on the winter season of the Northeast Urban Corridor?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


It's probably because they sense the negative NAO after this week.

That and the large negative EPO western ridge.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z ECMWF/12z GFS really have the next two weeks very chilly with impressive upstream blocking starting late next week.


It's probably because they sense the negative NAO after this week.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
12z ECMWF/12z GFS really have the next two weeks very chilly with impressive upstream blocking starting late next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Dawn,that is a very real possibility
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168 hours out, the 12z GFS shows a moderate strength low pressure east of Cape Cod, MA. Could this be the sign of what's to come in the winter?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
36 degrees at my house this morning,getting close to the fost level,next week I expect to scrape my windows,which is about the normal time to get my first frost
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
Thats fine. I will figure it at some point. I am going home on the 9th, which is a week from today, so I will be in the warmer sunnier region of New England, instead of where the leaves are changing and signs of winter are occurring all around me.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
TheDawnAwakening- My collection only came with a CD-ROM adaption and not the DVD, so sorry not much help there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Blizzard, how do you work the DVD?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
In the snowy winter of 2002-2003 Cape Cod, MA received an above average snowfall with a total amount of 52.6" of snow, about double the average snowfall for the County. Snowstorm studies should only include the storms to dump 10" or more in the last 12 years for Cape Cod, MA considering the ENSO, NAO, PNA and Gulf Stream temperature anomalies in the 60W-80W Northwest Atlantic Ocean around 40N latitude. Cape Cod, MA received 15-18" of snow for the snowstorm the day after Christmas in 2004.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
TheDawnAwakening- Congrats you got the book!!! It is excellent and well worth the money.

NEwxguy- Yep, decent dynamics up that way with very high helicity readings. There could be some isolated stronger storms towards New Jersey up through the New England coastal region.

TheRasberryPatch- Yep we had snowshowers last year in October. Anyways no the 12/26/2004 did not affect our area. The Christmas storm you are thinking of is the 2002 storm which produced 9-12inches of snow over much of Pennsylvania. It was part of the snowy winter of 02-03. As for the rain, the forecast in the blog above looks spot on. Not much of an affect on the area it doesn't appear. Models once again cut back QPF by 75% in the day 1-2 time frame. possibly a weak front passing through the area Saturday, although I do not think it will be too much of a problem for the weekend.

Stanb999- I am guessing the valley saw some frost as your mountaintop does not radiate well.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Raspberry patch, I am using the Blizzard of 2005 and 12/26/2004 snowstorms as case studies for my own personal informational studies. I am trying to figure out if there is a way to correlate all of these factors to predict another similar season because it was so rare on Cape Cod, MA. Our previous record for total snowfall was 93-94 winter where we got 65.8", but in 2004-2005 we got 92.6" almost 27 more inches then our previous record. Severe storms are unlikely tomorrow due to lack of strong instability, but we have shear, so any instability that does develop SNE needs to watch it closely.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - looking at the radar it doesn't seem to have anything in our area. It all pushed to our north and west. will we see any rain? also, these guys talk about the winter storm of 12/26/2004 i am assuming that is the same one where we got 9" on Christmas morning and afternoon?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Blizz - looking at the radar it doesn't seem to have anything in our area. It all pushed to our north and west. will we see any rain? also, these guys talk about the winter storm of 12/26/2004 i am assuming that is the same one where we got 9" on Christmas morning and afternoon?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Hopefully, right now I am undeclared, and may consider going into the Air Force given that I won't be able to pay for my education next semester. Anyways we will resolve the situation in some manner. I am reading some of the Northeast Snowstorms by Paul Kocin and Louis W Uccellini and I am finding that if the NAO goes from a negative phase trending positive then we have a better chance at seeing a snowstorm. Now I will have to look back at the Blizzard of 2005 and 12/26/2004 Snowstorms to see if this relationship is true for these storms. Given that we were in the weak EL Nino to neutral phase of the warm and cold ENSO seasonal variations and +4C -60W to -80W longitude and 40N latitude region of the Atlantic Ocean ie: Gulf Stream temperature anomalies and +PNA all these factors together brought Cape Cod, MA the highest total in a snowstorm in years and brought the record breaking seasonal snowfall totals for one winter in 2004-2005.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
TDA, in your location up at college, most likely you will get some good snows this winter,BTW, are you going to be studying meteorology?
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Dawn,they even threw in tornado into the wording,although unless things really got stirred up,I would put tornado at a very low probability
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
Yeah NE, Taunton, MA NWS office was talking about some chance at thunderstorms for the South Coast of SNE. Unfortunately I am up in central NH right now so I won't be able to report anything for Cape Cod, MA. I just got Northeast Snowstorms by Paul Kocin and Louis W. Uccellini. So I will try to read some of it this weekend.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
An interesting pattern setting up for tomorrow for us here in New England,looks like some decent shear setting up,to create some hvy thunderstorm activity.Will have to wait until things develope,these situations are hard to predict,but there is going to be an E and SE flow at the surface and not too far up a southerly flow.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
It was 36F this morning @ 6:00AM
No real frost up at the house yet. Even this morning everything was just wet. I did see some on the way to work tho.


That picture reminds me to get the hay put up. This year was just too wet for me to cut it myself. I better get some put up.

Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
Congratulations to Taz. Just wait until Bugs Bunny comes out of his hole. He will not be happy. hahaha

Blizz - i recall that picture from Stan and was glad it wasn't us. hmmmm. not sure I was in the state for that. I think I was in Disney. Did we get flurries at the end of the storm.

low of 41.2F

Mason - it appears VP2 is performing well
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Right now I am sitting at 36.5F here in Plymouth, NH. I am not used to the early arrival of winter, like northerners are, as I have lived on Cape Cod, MA for 19years and have experienced a few early season snowfalls, which means late November for us.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
And the winner for Bradford is Tazmanian with October 1. This morning's low in Bradford was 28degrees. My low this morning was 39.7degrees before the clouds.

Mason803- There could be some morning rain, but things will be on the improve. Thanks for your report!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
forgot to report but yesterday i hit 38F yesterday morning for my official low. my mmts had 38.3F and my vp2 hit 37.8. I was the "cold" spot. glad to see that this saturday is shaping up to be less rain. (big yardsale)
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Evening Blizzard.

I just finished my forecast for the first half of winter. I am splitting my forecast in two because there will be some rather significant changes throught the winter regarding the placement of the western ridge and eastern trough.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha, I love this time of year though and will be sad when it is over. But it does snow in October sometimes. Remember this picture from Stan999 in northern Pennsylvania around the 28th of October...

Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
i don't want to hear of any Indian Snow Dances either. I seem to recall a similar situation last October. Maybe i should have this speach handy for each year lol
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
TheRasberryPatch- Lol. I will keep my excitement to a minimum, ha. A few cirrus already beginning to stream in from the southwest, 40.9/39.3 currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
its 41F with a dewpt of 40F.

you guys pushing the snow. ugh. we haven't even had a frost and/or freeze. the trees in my area are still full of green leaves. i want to enjoy October in its full colors. i won't mind some flurries or showers, but nothing to accumulate yet. i still have a few weekends of work in the yard and garage. hahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
I can't wait for our first snow!
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Check out some of these beautiful snow pictures out of Stowe, Vermont Ski resort this morning. Link.
(First snowfall of the season: 2-3 inches fell at the top of the mountain last night! Stowe opens for the 09-10 winter season on November 21, 2009. Do your snow dances and get your boards ready!)

Also a staff meteorologist up at Mt. Washington is reporting .7inches of snow for the day with graupel being reported currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Snowlover2010- Yep in general despite a few transiet warmups, the pattern looks cool. ECMWF ensemble models and weeklies produce cool weather through the end of October. It is only about three weeks until we can start scouting out isolated snow showers especially for the northern Great Lakes and Northern New England. Remember last year the large blizzard that affected northeast Pennsylvania with 2ft of snow at the end of October. Then flurries fell the next day in October all the way to my location. I am sure Stanb999 remembers that storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
You see the 12z GFS and 12z Euro today? The GFS shows a massive pocket of cold air spreading through Georgia by mid October. Temps below freezing for GA and AL. Then I looked at the Euro and saw at 168 it also shows a massive pocket of cool air forming. Maybe signs of the cold and snowy winter to come?
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TheRasberryPatch- The dewpoint will drop a little throughout the night with a high amount of subsidence, but it won't be terribly cold tonight. Also some high and mid level cirrus will rotate in overnight. Still though we may see our first upper 30s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
with the dewpt @ 41f i am guessing we won't get much lower for the eveing for temperature

thanks for the explanation
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
jthal57- Wow you got really chilly last night and this morning. Currently 43degrees here now.

TheRasberryPatch- During the diurnal hours solar radiation allows the atmosphere to be well mixed, but during the night a cold layer develops at the surface with a residual warmer layer slightly aloft. The process of the winds becoming calm is called decoupling and typically results in excellent radiational cooling depending on cloud cover.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
it is clear and chilly this evening. i am at 43f with a dewpt of 41f

Blizz - when you say the winds didn't decouple - do you mean winds at the surface or above? and how low do the winds have to be to decouple? calm?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
low of 38.5, high of 55.8 and overcast here today Blizzard. Really had the feel of a November day.
Today's State Extremes (Pennsylvania)

State Lows:
Washington 32°F
Johnstown 36°F
Bradford 37°F
Pittsburgh 37°F
Quakertown 37°F
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Evident snow fell across northern New England with webcams showing showing snow at Mt. Mansfield and Stowe VT. Also the presidentials in New Hamsphire...

Snow in October is not too unusual, but for it only being October 1 it doesn't occur every year.

Mount Washington
Lat: 44.28 Lon: -71.3 Elev: 6266
Last Update on Oct 1, 4:52 pm EDT

Low Drifting Snow Freezing Fog

21 F
(-6 C) Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: W 18 MPH
Barometer: NA
Dewpoint: 21 F (-6 C)
Wind Chill: 6 F (-14 C)
Visibility: 0.00 mi.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Thanks for the update Blizz. that should be good. The inlaws are going to do Gettysburg on Saturday - do a driving tour and Harpers Ferry and Antietam on Sunday. Glad the weather is improving.

That winter you showed the graph was cold, just not any moisture
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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