Ice Storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:48 PM GMT on January 27, 2008

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"Afternoon thoughts"
Update as of 700pm...
Well precipitation is changing to snow from west to east currently. On radars recently I have noticed a pretty intense band of snow was forming across the central part of the state and moving northeastward. The band looks quite intense in northern Centre County and in Clinton County. The band stretches as far south as Carlisle, pa. I do think this band will swing on to the north and gradually weaken. But for the time being there may be a quick burst of heavy snow from Harrisburg on northward to the NY/PA border in the next hour or two. In the northern areas, they may see 1-3inches of snow in a short period of time. Also in areas with wet roads, temperatures will quickly go back below freezing and may become snowcovered and slippery. Elevations about 2000ft should be avoided tonight as travel is nearly impassible. In the southern areas that this band affects a quick C-1inch could occur. On for tomorrow I will not be updating my blog as I am taking a short break after monitoring this storm. But come Sunday I will post a full new blog entry. Tomorrow I will be on and off to post comments and answer any commments. Overall I think my forecast for this storm was very good, other than more sleet in State College than expected, my freezing rain forecast was pretty good. Drive safe out tonight and have a great evening!

Update as of 300pm...
Well things are sure rough here in Harrisburg. We I am near Blue Mountain about 1-2hrs ago we got above freezing and have been at 33degrees ever since. We accumulated about .3inch of ice. We have gotten 1.24inches of precipitation and it is coming down hard still. It is also windy, which makes for horrible conditions. Trees are bent over and now flooding is occuring along streams and creeks. For now many areas have changed to rain, but some areas are holding onto the freezing rain and sleet. A changeover to snow will occur soon in the west.
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 11:25 am EST on February 1, 2008
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region.
Appreciation is extended to Highway departments... cooperative
observers... Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This
summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/ctp
Location storm total time/date comments
rainfall of
(inches) measurement

Pennsylvania
... Bedford County...
Buffalo Mills 0.25 805 am 2/1 spotter
Bedford 0.26 906 am 2/1 ASOS
... Blair County...
Altoona 0.48 902 am 2/1 ASOS
... Cambria County...
Johnstown 0.38 909 am 2/1 ASOS
... Centre County...
Philipsburg 0.51 700 am 2/1 spotter
... Clearfield County...
Clearfield 0.45 907 am 2/1 ASOS
... Columbia County...
Benton 0.68 1015 am 2/1 spotter
... Dauphin County...
Middletown 0.37 907 am 2/1 ASOS
... Franklin County...
Upper Strasburg 0.69 700 am 2/1 spotter
Greencastle 0.38 1100 am 2/1 spotter
... Lancaster County...
Lancaster 0.36 909 am 2/1 ASOS
... Lycoming County...
Williamsport 0.12 845 am 2/1 ASOS
... McKean County...
Kane 0.32 700 am 2/1 spotter
Port Allegany 0.24 700 am 2/1 spotter
... Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 0.31 911 am 2/1 ASOS
... Somerset County...
Somerset 0.57 700 am 2/1 spotter
Meyersdale 0.36 700 am 2/1 spotter
... York County...
Thomasville 0.38 911 am 2/1 ASOS

Location storm total time/date comments
ice of
(inches) measurement

Pennsylvania
... Bedford County...
Buffalo Mills 0.4 805 am 2/1
Bedford 0.3 906 am 2/1
... Blair County...
Altoona 0.3 902 am 2/1
... Cambria County...
Johnstown 0.3 909 am 2/1
... Centre County...
Philipsburg 0.2 700 am 2/1
... Clearfield County...
Clearfield 0.3 907 am 2/1
... Columbia County...
Benton 0.4 1015 am 2/1
... Dauphin County...
Middletown 0.3 907 am 2/1
... Franklin County...
Greencastle 0.4 1100 am 2/1
Upper Strasburg 0.4 700 am 2/1
... Lancaster County...
Lancaster 0.3 909 am 2/1
... Lycoming County...
Williamsport 0.3 845 am 2/1
... McKean County...
Kane 0.3 700 am 2/1
Port Allegany 0.3 700 am 2/1
... Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 0.3 911 am 2/1
... Somerset County...
Meyersdale 0.3 700 am 2/1
Somerset 0.3 700 am 2/1
... York County...
Thomasville 0.3 911 am 2/1
... Armstrong County...
Parker 0.50 930 am 2/1
... Butler County...
Mars 0.30 719 am 2/1 6 miles west of Mars.
... Fayette County...
Farmington 0.50 1152 am 2/1 temp 31. Freezing rain
... Jefferson County...
Punxsutawney 0.30 1143 am 2/1 3 south Punxsutawney
... Westmoreland County...
Latrobe 0.30 948 am 2/1

Update as of 745am...
Well conditions are horrible across the state. This is a short update. I hope to post a longer update soon. Schools and businesses are closed all throughout Pennsylvania. New winter storm warnings are out along with ice storm warnings. Many areas above the Pennsylvania turnpike are still well below freezing and precipitation is coming down hard. Here in Harrisburg, conditions are getting even worse. We have about .2inch of freezing rain with temperatures steady or slowly falling around 30degrees right now. Power outages are beginning to be reported as many trees are bending. Here where I live the roads are ice covered and there have been many accidents in my county. I still do not see us getting to above freezing until late afternoon, so things will continue to get much worse. Stay indoors and cancel all travel for the day. If necesssary to be driving allow plenty of time and plenty of room between you and the other cars. Roads are poor and mountain tops are immpassible. Sleet is being reported up north. Stay tuned for furthur updates...

About the ice storm. I think the most affected areas will be in central Pennsylvania. I think Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Selinsgrove, and Williamsport will see the worst of the freezing rain. In the far north they will see more sleet than anything. Possibly up to 4inches of pure sleet in some areas. There will be little snow in regions outside of the NY/PA border. See my short term for more details on the time line for the storm. I do think the NWS is underestimating the cold air damming. There is a 1040mb high pressure to the north of the storm which will keep the cold air snug in east of the mountains. I do not think most areas get above freezing north of the Pennsylvania turnpike. Also there will be some snow on the back side of this storm. Which will accumulate 1-3inches in western areas and westcentral areas. Also watch out for high winds behind this storm, with 40-50mph gusts, especially on the ridge tops. Elevations above 2000ft in the Laural highlands may see a devastating ice storm as precipitation totals will be 1.5-2.5inches and those areas will not get above freezing.

"Short Term"
Ok for Friday another storm system will build in from the Midwest that will cause a wintry mix for most of Pennsylvania, excluding the far southeast near Philadelphia which will see mostly rain. This storm has many questions that remain with it. Models have been trending southeast with this storm. This intern would bring colder and more wintry conditions. Winter storm warnings are now up for many areas in central Pennsylvania for significant icing.

Timeline of storm as what I see it...
Thursday night- Light to moderate snow will overspread all of Pennsylvania and may accumulate 1-3inches in western and central areas. The far north will see locally more snow. From southwest to northeast the snow/mix line will move. The low pressure at this time will be into central Ohio. By Friday morning most areas should be switched over to some form of freezing rain and/or sleet. Far northern areas may still be recieving snow near the NY/PA border.
Friday Morning- The low pressure will be moving up through northeastern Ohio at this time. Also to take note there will be a high pressure to the north of this storm system. The strength of this high will play a major part in precipitation types, especially in central and eastern regions. There will be some cold air damming, and I believe some cold air damming prone areas such as Harrisburg up through Wilksbarre may see a possible significant winter storm. But still this has yet to be determined. By late morning precipitation in the southwest and southeast will be plain rain with eastcentral regions still in sleet, northern areas in snow/sleet and all other areas in freezing rain.
Friday midday- The low pressure will be pulling up north into Canada and then into New York State. There are signs that a seconday low may develop in the Delmarva region and the western low pressure may transfer its energy to the coastal low pressure bringing in colder air. But this has yet to be determined. At this point in midday I would currently say that everyone except the north which will be seeing sleet and east central areas seeing freezing rain, everyone else will be getting plain rain. East central Pennsylvania is very prone to cold air damming. This is areas in the Susquehanna River valley. Then all areas will probably change to plain rain for a point except the north which will stick with sleet.
Friday late afternoon/evening- As the low pressure pulls away from the region, any remaining precipitation should turn to light snow. Little to no accumulation will be picked up in this timeframe. But if we have a secondary low pressure this would change things up.
Summary- Overall a significant storm will affect the state of Pennsylvania with everyone seeing some form of wintry precipitation at some point during the storm. Some areas may see a significant ice storm so this definitely bears watching. Also there will be some light snow accumulations too. This type of situation looks similar to the winter storm of December 16, 2007 which delivered a record ice storm across the state. Many questions remain with this storm and I will update everyday on any changes that have been made. But above is my current prediction.

Also watch out for 40mph gusts after the storm moves through and could intern bring trees and powerlines down that are coated with ice.

Here is my ice/rain/snow map for the storm...
Ice/Snow Map- Jan. 31- Feb. 1

After Friday normal to slightly above normal temperatures with sunshine will occur this weekend ahead of the next storm system for early next week.

Advisory...
None...

Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
Well, a little addition to the long term. Yes I have seen the last few GFS model runs which show mild and calm conditions across the country. I still think we are headed for a stormier pattern with possibly more snow. The GFS will be back and forth over the next week, but still I think it will come to see this pattern. Though of course I am no expert on long term predictions, I think this stormier pattern make sense.

We are certainly entering a period of stormy weather. This pattern seems to be in place for almost all of February. I think this pattern will lead to one if not two large east coast storms. I have been saying this over and over that I think a major snowstorm is heading towards the whole northeast and middle atlantic. One of these storms may be the big one. Now for the storms in the first week of February the storm track seems to favor storms heading up through the Great Lakes putting the east coast in the warm sector of the storm for the most part. Though it seems on the back sides of these storms so snow may be mixed in. But after about the first full week in February then the jet stream shifts slightly possibly bringing an east coast trough. This would favor colder air and a storm tracks taking systems up the coast. Now I know this is a long ways away and the GFS has a history of forecasting coastal storms in the long term that never come to fruitation. But I think this shows us we are favoring more east coast systems.

Now today the NAO is forecast to go positive. This does not really favor east coast storm development. Also the PNA is predicted to be approaching positive around the same time. The NAO and PNA are visible below. When the PNA goes positive this upsets the arctic air from Siberia and sends it southward towards the United States. When the NAO is negative, east coast storms are favorable to develop.

Overall the pattern is quite a stormy one and needs to be watched for all sorts of weather. I do think most areas see snow in this type of pattern from northern Virginia on northward. Stay tuned as I will update everyday on all of this possible storm scenerios.

Current NAO...
NAO...
*Note the positive trend.

Current PNA...
PNA...
*Note the trend of becoming positive.


"Just to throw out there"

I just wanted to say that we should not give up on this winter and even though the latest GFS does not hint at a cooler, stormier pattern like it did the last several days does not mean it will not happen. There is very low confidence in the long term. Also the NAO and PNA have been back and forth with greatly varied predictions every day.

"Regional Forecasts" (Friday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Light sleet to heavy freezing rain. Then ending as plain rain. .25inch of frz rain. High 35.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Freezing rain most of day, possibling changing to plain rain for a time south of the turnpike. .1-.4inches of freezing rain possible. High 34.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Rain, sleet a few times may be mixed in. High 41.

4. Central- (State College)-
Heavy freezing rain, occasionally mixed with sleet. .5inch of freezing rain. High 32.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Sleet with snow mixed in north and freezing rain mixed in in south. 1-3inches of sleet/snow. .1-.25inch of freezing rain. High 31.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Rain and freezing rain. High 36.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Freezing rain changing to rain by noon. High 36.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Regional Map...

Weekly Weather Reviews
Ok, this is something new I am going to try to write. This section will be dedicated to weather stations, weather technology, weather books, weather websites, weather magazines, etc. reviews that I write. I am going to try to write a review once a week on Sunday about some of the above topics. Also I am going to rate each item out of 5 stars. (*****)

Also if anyone else has a topic idea or something to add about my review you can leave it in a comment. Hopefully this will give you some knowledge about all of the fascinating weather accessories that are out there. And maybe you can try some out yourself.

Weather Station- The Weather Channel Professional Weather Station (Aliminum) (***)
I currently own 2 professional weather stations. My first weather station which I got a few years ago was a lacrosse weather station that is called TWC professional weather station. I also own a Davis Vantage Pro2 which I got last year and I will be writing a review for it too in the future.

Anyway the Lacrosse weather station has worked very well for me. Throughout the years I have had the system there have been no mechanical problems or errors in the features. The features of this weather station include windspeed, wind direction, temperature in/out, windchill, dewpoint, air pressure, rain 1hr/24hr/year, humidity in/out, and weather indicator, forecast. All it keeps min/max records for each feature. The weather station also has warning levels which sounds an alarm. The setup of the weather station was not to easy as many cables have to be laid across for each item, the thermo/hydro center, anemometer, and rain gauge. The station runs on several AAbatteries and an AC adapter for the indoor console. The console has a very easy to navigate screen, with very few buttons making the system quite easy to use. The only problems with the system I encountered was the anemometer is a fan that is not very accurate and the temperature reading during the day is very poor, due to the suns rays. One extra with the system is it comes with a computer software program with it.

Overall I recommend this system for an avid weather watcher who wants to start off with a simple professional weather station. The price is very affordable of $99.99. This includes all of the features above. The only poor qualities with this system are the temperature daytime readings and the wind readings.

The goods (+)
easy to use console screen
accuracy relatively good
has all necessary features
stories memory of min/max records
comes with computer program (heavyweather)
price
The bads (-)
difficult setup
poor temperature reading during daytime sunshine
anemometer does not record wind gusts

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 9.25inches
Monthly Total... 2.75inches
Daily Total... 0inches
Snow Cover... none

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow

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81. TheRasberryPatch
6:38 PM GMT on February 03, 2008
Wow, I guess that freezing fog must have been treacherous to drive.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
80. Zachary Labe
2:51 PM GMT on February 03, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yes there was freezing fog last night. And the trees that are coated in frost were coated from the fog.

I have a completely new blog coming today so stay tuned!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
79. TheRasberryPatch
12:42 PM GMT on February 03, 2008
No fog here this morning. Maybe it occured overnight, but everywhere you look it is white. Even the trees have a frosty coat on them. I see the dew point is the same as the actual temperature. Don't see that very often in the winter, I guess. Usually, the air is very dry on a starry night.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
78. Zachary Labe
9:49 PM GMT on February 02, 2008
Watch out for freezing fog later tonight and tomorrow morning. Could be quite thick in the Susquehanna River Valley!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
77. Zachary Labe
12:41 AM GMT on February 03, 2008
Cold night here. Already 25degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
76. jthal57
5:00 PM GMT on February 02, 2008
Blizzard-headed out your way today; Hershey Bears hockey game. Assuming travel won't be a problem. Maybe Phil will guarantee us a "Big Daddy"!
75. Zachary Labe
4:41 PM GMT on February 02, 2008
On top of the mountain right behind my home, ice is visible still on the trees at the very top. It is real neat looking.

By the way Punxatawney Phil says we will have 6more weeks of winter. So we will see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
74. Zachary Labe
4:36 PM GMT on February 02, 2008
Flood Warnings are out for some areas due to minor flooding on creeks.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
73. TheRasberryPatch
12:46 AM GMT on February 02, 2008
Broken clouds with lots of stars visible. I doubt if any snow is coming my way. oh well, i guess we will have to wait until the 9th. You picked a good date. There have been many big big snowstorms around the 14th. I recall I believe in 1983 or was it 1978 when I was living in Towson we got 23". It ruined dinner for a lot of Valentines.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
72. TheRasberryPatch
12:10 AM GMT on February 02, 2008
Sorry, correction the winds shifted around 530pm out of the West, NW and WSW.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
71. TheRasberryPatch
12:07 AM GMT on February 02, 2008
Our strongest wind gust here occured at 4am and was 17mph. the winds are out of the SW right now at about 5mph. the temps have come down to 34.5F, but have started to rise again and is now at 35.5F. with the winds out of the SW I would guess the temperatures won't do much around here until we get a wind shift.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
70. Zachary Labe
11:24 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Got up to 35degrees for a few minutes but now temperatures are falling. Winds were only around 25mph here for a brief time. 1.68inches of precipitation fell here. Also I think we may see a few snow showers tonight, but other will minimally affect the region other than keeping the spirit of winter in the air.

In the western part of the state though they may see 1-4inches of snow, depending on elevation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
69. TheRasberryPatch
10:18 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
It is 36F here @ 5pm in Campbelltown and a rainfall total of 1.93" of rain so far. It came down pretty good most of the afternoon. Is there really a chance of some snow this evening? There really wasn't much wind to speak of today with this storm in my area.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
68. lawntonlookers
8:52 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
BLIZZ. I Just posted in Sully blog that on Derry Street the ice has melted and it is just rain now. By the looks of the radar, the rain is about over and possibly some snow as the temp gets colder at sunset. Have a Great Day
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
67. jthal57
8:35 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
Blizzard-see that large area on radar of heavy rain just east and south of Harrisburg? Is that what you got? Looks like it's headed toward Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area. Looks like my rain gauge is going to get a workout!
66. Zachary Labe
8:33 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
Update on snow...
Many areas in western Pennsylvania. Also some areas in the central part of beginning too. Johnstown is currently reporting heavy snow. So it will be interesting to see how far east the rain&mix/snow line makes it.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
65. TheRasberryPatch
3:17 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
A very nice layer of ice throughout. I even see icicles hanging from limbs of trees. it is just at 32F here. A shame this isn't snow. Even though I kind of dread the 2 hours of snowblowing and shoveling and coming in soaked from sweat. I bet people that don't have snowblowers don't realize how much work they really can be to use. But I would rather be sweating from using a snowblower than from shoveling. Did that too many times growing up in rowhouse in Towson and throwing the snow from the road over a sidewalk into the grass.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
64. jthal57
1:00 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
hey blizzard-i just updated things here in northampton county. not too bad, but ya know, any ice makes for difficult conditions. heavier band of rain approaching us, will wait and see if it all freezes.
63. Zachary Labe
12:52 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
TheRasberryPatch-Well that was quite a tornado. Also I had a feeling that a winter storm warning would be issued. It is pretty rough out there. Becareful!


WeatherBobNut-Good morning. Horrible ice here and still coming down. Becareful up there!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
62. TheRasberryPatch
12:41 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
Blizzard - I just moved into this house last year, so I wasn't here for the tornado, but this neighborhood and house were hit by the tornado. If you look closely at the pictures of my weather station you can see the trees in the backgroud were hit bad or should I say the ones that are still standing. Supposedly, that area by my weather station had all kinds of trees. A neighbor gave me some pictures before and after. I will try and post them here. Looks like your prediction of a WSWarning came true. Just freezing rain here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
61. WeatherBobNut
12:37 PM GMT on February 01, 2008
Good morning Blizzard92, currenly it's a heavy freezing rain falling here! Everything is a glaze of ice, every school in the eastern part of the state is closed, reports coming in of power lines starting to snap in spots, yikes! I'm up extremely early because my wifes car was encased in ice and i had to chisle it away...work calls you know....oh, the good 'ol days of school...sigh....i work 2nd shift so this is early for mw, and now with the storm, i can't go back for some more zzz...lol....have a great friday, looks like next Tuesdays storm will be a plain rain....then i'm hopin the 9th storm returns as i see it's off the models again! grrrrr...

-Weather Bob
60. WeatherBobNut
4:43 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Hi Blizzard92, just got home and checked the 18z runs and i yelled "YES"!!! the storm for the 9th was still there! As for this current storm, i like your map and i agree the central part of the state will see the most ice. I think here where i live it'll take a while to start because it's so dry so i expect an hour or so of verga before it reaches the ground by 8:00am or shortly after...I'm expecting an icy morning before the warmer air works in by noon....travel will be hard along with school closings....

I really hope the models hold on the storm for the 9th...because after that, it may be our last hope for any good snow event here...sigh...The ground is all bare again with no snow anywhere....just patches in the mountains, thats it.....welp, off to bed...be carefull out there tomorrow.....

-Weather Bob
59. Zachary Labe
1:58 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Snowlover2010- You are correct. It is not reaching the ground.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
58. Snowlover2010
1:55 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
I'm guessing the precip on the map in Adams County is not making it to the ground. Is this correct?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
57. Zachary Labe
1:42 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Were you close to the tornado a few years ago?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
56. TheRasberryPatch
12:34 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
yes, the new graphics are pretty cool. and i am in Campbelltown, don't make that mistake again. Hahahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
55. Zachary Labe
12:28 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Just wanted to share that the 18z GFS still shows a major snowstorm/coastal storm for all of Pennsylvania for the 9th of February.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
54. Zachary Labe
11:11 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
jthal57- Just noticed the graphics, look good.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
53. jthal57
10:53 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Hey, check out the new graphics and format on WUnderground forecast pages. Nice!
52. Snowlover2010
10:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Cool, I hope there is NO SCHOOL tomorow. Not that I want bad road conditions but I could really use a day off.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
51. Zachary Labe
9:53 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Snowlover2010- If the storm cut up through Pennsylvania then things would be a little colder, but I doubt this will happen. And I am not making snow changes to my map right now. I like it. And yes I do think schools will be delayed or closed in Lancaster County. Already I checked that WGAL has 2 schools reporting closings.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
50. Snowlover2010
9:48 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
First, if the storm cuts up through PA will that mean colder air? Do you think you will be making any adjustments to you current map? And do you believe any schools in Lancaster County will delay or close?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
49. Zachary Labe
9:22 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
I did some checking around on models recently and most of the agree. Here is a little something on each model...
NMM- a little to far west with storm track
SREF- seems to want to warm up the upper atmosphere too fast
NGM- takes the low pressure right up through central Pennsylvania, which is odd
NAM- exactly in line for what I think
GFS- a tiny bit too warm
EURO- similar to GFS
NAVY- slow arrival time with storm
MRF- way too slow with arrival time
CMC- also takes storm track through central Pennsylvania
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
48. PalmyraPunishment
8:56 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Campbelltown... pfft

More like Palmyra-South hahahahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
47. TheRasberryPatch
8:42 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
The high here in campbelltown got to 37F. I am just off of Rt 322 and just east of Hershey. And you are correct about the damming affect. It seems like the cold air lasts longer than they expect. the problem is do we have enough cold air here and NE of us to keep the cold air at the surface?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
46. Zachary Labe
8:13 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Thanks for sharing. I have a davis vantage pro2 and absolutely love it. I hope to write a review on it soon!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
45. Zachary Labe
8:11 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- I think our Carlisle-Harrisburg region will see a horrible ice storm if everything comes together, worse than the NWS says. Temperatures even today did only get to 34 and they were forecast near 40. Also the NWS never seems to add the cold air damming effect which effects our areas greatly. Also during the December 16 event of the worst ice storm in decades in our area. The nws forecast for that storm was a winter weather advisory and for .1inch-.2inch of ice. In the storm some areas saw .5-.75inch of ice. The nws has always been to warm with forecasts for winter storms this year. So let us see what tomorrow brings.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
44. PalmyraPunishment
7:59 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
well this sucks. we can't even get an ice storm right...

went down from WS Watch to WW Advisory. wtf?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
43. TheRasberryPatch
4:31 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
BTW, anyone know how to change the zip code in 5 day weather forecast where my current conditions page is located. I can't seem to figure it out and the zip isn't my zip.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
42. TheRasberryPatch
4:28 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Wow, if i do that then I am going out for the tour and face Tiger down. Can you make it a bit warmer then. I prefer to have at least temps in the 50's with very little wind. I do need to work on my game. I hope to play in the golf channel amateur tour out of Baltimore (the closest around).
would love some pre-weekend advance notice to make my reservations. : )
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
41. PalmyraPunishment
4:00 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
may as well golf... you'll have a better chance of getting 18 consecutive hole-in-ones than you do of getting a respectable snowstorm this year, until this damn SE Ridge gets wiped out...

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
40. TheRasberryPatch
3:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Hey Blizz
Nice work. I have been busy and haven't had much of a chance to blog this year. I have a Vantage Pro wireless. I haven't had too many problems with it. The wireless part works well. I have replace the outside humidity detector once and then anemometer last year. That might have been my fault. There was ice on it last year and I tried to knock it off with a broom stick. I got it off, but a few days later it stopped working. If you look at my pictures on my weather station, the instruments are up close to 10'. The reason I went with Davis Vantage Pro was because I like the accuracies of their instruments. I am a scientist and I guess I prefer to have some accurate data. I love being able to send the data to weather observers and I look at getting 2 thumbs with pride. Just being proud that I can send good data.
You do a great job. I enjoy reading your blogs. Hopefully, we can get a bit of snow this month for sledding, even though I do want to get out and golf some too. hmmmm. not sure what i want now
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
39. PalmyraPunishment
2:35 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
btw, I want some of whatever the person on Accuweather's forums that posted this is smoking... very effective stuff

Current Thinking on Storm Map too Come soon
Pittsburgh - 1-3 Snow/sleet mixture Over too ZR .25 Then Back to Snow 1-3
Allentown -2-4 Snow Then 1 Inch Sleet/.20 ZR Then Back to Snow 3-5
Buffalo-ALL SNOW NO MIXING ISSUES 12-18
Scranton-4-8 Snow Mixing with sleet then All snow Additional 3-6
York/Lancaster- 2 Inches of Frontend Snow Then 3-5 hr Sleet/Zr Mix then snow 1-3
Harrisburg-2-4 Frontend snow then Sleet Then Back to Snow 3-5
Baltimore-Inch of Sleet/Snow then ZR Over to rain back to snow 1-2 inches
Frederick,MD-2-4 Front end Snow Short Sleet Back to Snow 4-8
Harrisonburg-Sleet/snow 2 Inches Then Heavy ZR MAJOR ICE Back to snow 2-4
Columbus-ALL SNOW 8-12
NYC-Snow 3-5 Then Sleet 3 inches back to snow 3 inches
Boston 4-8 front end snow sleet mixing in then all snow 3-6 addtl.
Harftford-3-6 front end snow micing with sleet/zr back to snow 4-8 addtl
Providence-Snow/sleet MAJOR ICE back to snow 2-4 Mixing with rain
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
38. PalmyraPunishment
2:27 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Well, I'm getting my Blazer retro-fitted with front, back, and side bumpers and blades under the tires so that I can make it to work tomorrow morning.

Something tells me more this is going to be a significant icing event... granted they're predicting almost a half inch here in Carlisle, something just tells me thats gonne be a little underdone.

We'll see. I think this is our last hurrah for winter, however. Bummer
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
37. Zachary Labe
1:55 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Snowlover2010- I would still watch out for .1inch or less of ice in Lancaster. The farthur northwest the more ice there will be. Still monitor the situation though because there is a chance there could be more ice. NO snow though from this storm I do not think. Have a great evening!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
36. Snowlover2010
1:47 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Here is where the NWS said around .2inches of ice in Lancaster, http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/digital/066afm.htm.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
35. Zachary Labe
1:01 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
cchamp6- Thanks, I sure hope we some more snow this February. And yes this year storms sure are in a hurry.

Snowlover2010- Where did you see that the NWS was predicting over .2inch of ice? I do think that is overestimating the ice. The real icing event should be from the Pennsylvania turnpike and on northward. See my map for more details.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
34. cchamp6
10:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
I like your forecast for upcoming friday storm. Nice job. My gut is telling me we are screwed for the big snows in feb. The other thing that has been happening all winter is that these storms are in a big hurry to get out of here. I am getting inpatient and already thinking about spring.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
33. Snowlover2010
10:26 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
Compared to what everyone is saying is the NWS overpredicting ice in Lancater by saying we could have around .2inches of ice tom. night?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
32. Zachary Labe
8:40 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
Snowlover2010- NAM is usually too warm
GFS is usually too cold

Though for Lancaster I do not think you will see any snow. You may see some light icing though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
31. Zachary Labe
8:32 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
Snow map coming soon!!!

Some quick points about the long term...
I saw todays NAO and it is forecast to go highly positive. I doubt this, as it was forecast to go strongly negative just 2days ago. The PNA is now forecast to go positive and this would favor an east coast trough. But the NAO does not predict negative in response, which is strange. The long term is very questionable and I still think we are headed for a snowier pattern with average temperatures.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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