Overrunning QPF and Middle Atlantic Tropical Threat...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:45 AM GMT on August 27, 2009

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Every now and then I do enjoy straying away from a set organized blog and enjoy giving a more meteorological approach for a weather system coming towards the region. Just recently I issued that blog last weekend about the Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) and a severe weather forecast which gave more explanations on how I came about my forecast which ended up being one of my best severe weather calls if I do say so myself, hahaha. Anyways I thought to cover the approaching weather system and Tropical Storm Danny I might as well issue a short term blog that looks at the forecast in the immediate term. Also Sunday I will put out my Summer Outlook review, which is not going to pretty. Then for next weekend I will be debuting my Winter Outlook 2009-2010, which should make some happy and others maybe not so much; you will just have to wait and see. In any case a lot of blogs coming up. This one is featuring an overrunning precipitation event for much of the Middle Atlantic during the same time Tropical Storm Danny moves up along the coast. First I will take a look at the overrunning precipitation event and show how this will give us a taste of October stratiform rain events. Current water vapor loops shows some interesting features as a cold front located over the Middle Atlantic pushes southward drawing in drier and cooler air for Thursday. Lack of any trigger and moisture aloft will mainly cause a dry frontal passage.


Fig 1.0- A few important features to note on the water vapor loop. First off across the Midwest lies the next cold front and associated low pressure with a steep elongated trough that is causing near record lows over the northern Midwest with lows down in the 30s! South of the front is that pesky upper level low over the southeast near Alabama and Louisiana which is still shearing apart Danny on the eastern side. This dry air and associated upper level low will continue to weaken and moves West-southwest. These are the players in the next couple of days that will factor into our weather

By Thursday evening things begin to turn downhill from Maryland on through Pennsylvania as isentropic lift (when warm air lifts over a cooler airmass) touches off precipitation along the quasi-stationary boundary that stalls near central to northern Maryland. Cool air at the surface with a north wind, but aloft a southerly wind with an influx of tropical air will form an overrunning precipitation event for the upcoming days.


Fig 2.0- Current 18z GFS shows the 700mb RH values for Thursday night as precipitate waters rise to a few deviations above normal likely about 1.5inches. Keep in mind true tropical air has PWATs near 2inches+, but this overrunning event will be fighting some drier air from a weak low pressure system.

Meanwhile across the western United States a strong southwest ridge is forming and the several deviations below normal upper level trough is moving across areas from the Midwest on eastward. This pattern is very favorable for unseasonably cool air to transfer from Canada through the United States


Fig 3.0- 18z GFS looking out towards Sunday afternoon shows how cool in the incoming airmass actually is with H85s dropping to well below normal values for this time of year below 10C. Also note the 0C is not too far away from the Northern Great Lakes there in Canada. Current GFS meteograms drop lows down in the 40s for areas as far south as Harrisburg several times next week with dry dewpoints down in the low 40s. Link. This just goes to show the anomalous trough approaching that will help steer Tropical Storm Danny.

So all this put together means a wet and cool period is upon us despite what influence Tropical Storm Danny may have on the region. Thursday evening through Saturday several waves of low pressure will ride along the quasi-stationary boundary (stalled front). This will allow periods of damp conditions to occur with generally light to moderate steady rain periods especially for the southern half of Pennsylvania on southward through Maryland and Delaware. Convective chances remain slim with a relatively stable airmass although a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. Also with the overrunning event low clouds and fog will be common with the temperature contrast similar to what occurs in Fall and winter with low clouds featuring dense fog over the mountains with ceilings as low as 300ft. This will bring IFR conditions to the airfields especially south of I-80 this week. If you are unfamiliar with my use of VFR, MVFR, IFR, LIFR terms, that are acronyms for aviation use. For instance IFR stands for instrumental flight rules. VFR conditions are for clear days with low aviation threats with conditions deteriorating conditions to LIFR which stands for limited instrumental flight rules which occurs during low visibility or heavy weather. Anyways this week will be common for low visibility with fog and drizzle with visibilities down around 1-3mi. Timing is a bit questionable for Thursday night through Friday night with the waves of precipitation, but Friday should feature the majority of the overrunning precipitation with cool temperatures and an easterly 90degree wind. On occasion, especially for lake effect snow, you will see me reference degrees off the mathematic circle degrees 0-360. This use is common in meteorology and allows for more accuracy than saying a west-southwest wind. A west-southwest wind could mean anywhere from a 200degree to 220degrees. So therefore saying a 210degree wind is much more precise. Anyways I am getting sidetracked... For those looking at a weather map without any isothermals, it would look very similar to an overrunning snow event. We have a 1204 anticyclone (high pressure) over southern Canada in Quebec with a stationary front to our south allowing precipitation to ride up along it with drizzle intermittent thanks to a temperature contrast.

A cold front bring the upper level trough eastward will be approaching the region by Saturday allowing for the winds to shift out of the southwest eroding much of the marine layer for areas west of the Susquehanna River. As Tropical Storm Danny begins to move up the coast a more tropical airmass will encompass the region with higher dewpoints and slightly more unstable air.


Fig 4.0- The 15z SREF model, which is a higher resolution for short term forecasts shows rising CAPE values at the surface in excess of 500 j/kg for areas south of the Pennsylvania turnpike through Maryland and Delaware. For those who have been reading my blog and are afraid to ask, CAPE stands for convective available potential energy basically measuring the buoyancy in the atmosphere. For the science buffs out there and mathematical wizards here is the official American Meteorological Society definition and formula...

convective available potential energy—(Abbreviated CAPE.) The maximum energy available to an ascending parcel, according to parcel theory. On a thermodynamic diagram this is called positive area, and can be seen as the region between the lifted parcel process curve and the environmental sounding, from the parcel's level of free convection to its level of neutral buoyancy. It may be defined as

where αe is the environmental specific volume profile, αp is the specific volume of a parcel moving upward moist-adiabatically from the level of free convection, pf is the pressure at the level of free convection, and pn is the pressure at the level of neutral buoyancy. The value depends on whether the moist-adiabatic process is considered reversible or irreversible (conventionally irreversible) and whether the latent heat of freezing is considered (conventionally not). Compare convective inhibition.

Anyways as we enter Saturday we push the marine layer back over the Atlantic with a more tropical flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms triggered from several boundaries including the cold front to the west, the warm front rising over the region, and moisture from any Predecessor Rainfall Event over eastern and southern areas. As tropical systems move northward in latitude the increase in forward momentum as they enter a faster jet stream pattern in prevailing westerlies. So by morning Tropical Storm Danny will be approaching the coordinates 35N 75W, which is right off the coast of Hatteras. Intensity forecasts are a bit difficult with Danny as the influence of that Upper Level low causing dry air over the open low level circulation of Danny. But the ULL will weaken with time by Friday afternoon. Danny will enter an area of warm gulf waters near 28C and slightly strengthen for an optimum period of 12hrs of so before undergoing shear from the approach of the anomalous upper level trough. Danny will begin marching shifting from WNW Friday to NW Friday evening to N Saturday morning to NNE Saturday evening to NE Sunday morning. My official forecast track is for the following coordinates... 35N 75W...39N 73W... 41N 70.5W...43N 68W. Basically if you don't feel liking looking up the coordinates it is a few miles off of Hatteras...75 miles off of Atlantic City curving and cruising across Cape Cod making its first landfall. As far as intensity Danny has the potential to approach a strong Tropical storm or minimal hurricane with winds up to 100mph. But by Sunday approaching a Cape Cod landfall this system will potentially transition quickly to a cold core system which is more of a hybrid than purely tropical. This should prevent Danny from strengthening further more than a category 1 hurricane.

A quick look at the Wednesday evening models shows a bit more of a shift eastward in the foreign models including the ECMWF and the GGEM. The GFS is the farther outlier outside of a few hurricane models basically not phasing this system with the steering currents of the upper level trough and therefore keeping the intensity down and keeping this farther east. Keep in mind GFS data is initiated in the hurricane models such as the GFDL and HWRF, so they typically have semi similar paths. So with the forecast path would probably influence several coastal regions in the Middle Atlantic. Here is the current Wave Watch III prediction.



Fig 5.0- The current Wednesday evening Wave Watch III model initiated off the GFS data keeps the highest wave heights offshore generally around 6-10ft with lower waves closer to the coast.

The center of Danny will pass to the east of all coastal locations in the Middle Atlantic which is a positive as the western quadrant typically as lower wave heights, storm surge values, and lower wind speeds, but heavier rain. The eastern quadrant contains the fury of the storm, but with rain more organized into feeder bands. For areas across the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays I would estimate advisories being issued for the waterways starting late Friday as the system approaches the region. Winds for eastern buoys may approach 40knots for max speeds with gusts up to 45knots for a very brief period.

40knots...46mph
45knots...51mph

For another reference the NWS threshold for gale force winds is 34-47knots. Winds will be strong, but not enough to cause much more than minimal damage. Wave heights for the Bay will be a few feet above wave crests after Bill's passage. Storm surge will likely be minimal also around 1-3ft for the Bay especially towards the mouth of the Delaware and Chesapeake. Towards the coast with Danny about 85 nautical miles offshore (100miles) off the coast of KACY (Atlantic City). This will cause a bit rougher conditions over the Atlantic coasts of Delaware and Maryland with winds likely approach 50knots for Ocean City piers and such for a short period. The baroclonic pressure gradient is not overly impressive in the western quadrant of Danny as it passes offshore. Storm surge along the Atlantic coast in the same areas will again be minimal around 1-4ft with waves approach 5-10ft, likely higher depending on strength of Danny. As the storm moves northeastward likely moving towards Cape Cod, conditions will begin to improve over the Middle Atlantic coastal waters. Keep in mind also for beach enthusiasts again that there will be red flag warning conditions for rip currents, and it is not a good idea to be in the water from Friday through Sunday. We all saw what happened in the waters during Bill's offshore passage. The last marine threat other than heavy rain is the threat of waterspouts which are possible as the feeder bands from Danny rotate through the region, with waterspouts developing potentially with little to no warning.

This brings me up to my final point of QPF totals for directly related to Danny. The rain shield remains in question in the western extent. It does appear extreme eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, and Delaware will feel some of the effects of the heavy rain from this system. PWATs will rise to near 2inches for near the coastline allowing for tropical downpours and rainfall rates near 2inches per hour for some areas. Rainfall totals will likely be highest towards the coast with some areas seeing up to 3inches of rain or more.


Fig 6.0- HPC continues to show heavy rain over the region with the core of the heaviest rain over the open waters over the Atlantic. These are total QPF from Danny in the map above.

Finally I would like to list my concerns. I know this all sounds like a final forecast and that Danny is approaching in 24hours or so, but that is not true. And many regulars here on this blog know I do not issue set in stone forecasts until 24hours before a system. This is a general outline on how the synoptic setup currently looks. In fact Danny is several days away from approaching the Middle Atlantic or the United States for that matter. This means that a lot of changes are possible in the forecast, especially the track. After analyzing today it is interesting to note the center of circulation still is open and being sheared apart with little convection surrounding it, generally to the east. There are also subtle signs of models shifting a bit more to the east which would lessen the impact on the United States. The coming days are key to the final forecast and the above discussion is just giving a general heads-up for this weekend in terms of weather, and I know many changes are likely to occur. The best bet is to stay tuned to this quickly changing event, but for now I hoped I highlighted most people's concerns and gave my best effort on how the situation currently looks. I will be posting throughout the coming days on any updates that occur. By the way I am plotting the track of Danny, yes pencil and paper; some us like the old fashioned method, hahaha, so if anyone needs coordinate points and such, just ask! Stay tuned and have a wonderful weekend!


Fig 7.0- Current satellite of Tropical Storm Danny

"Here 10mi Northeast of Harrisburg, PA 2009 Statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 35

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 5.16inches
Yearly Precipitation- 28.83inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 9
Highest Temperature- 95degrees

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145. Zachary Labe
1:36 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
shoreacres- It definitely has been dry down there. I was looking at the climate prediction center outlooks for down in that region for the next few weeks and I am sad to say they keep the below normal precipitation conditions continuing. One positive is that during El Nino winters there is typically an active subtropical jet, so winters are typically too dry. Thanks for stopping by!

originalLT- If this system comes near the Islands it will tap into the westerly winds located over the western Caribbean. But a more probable solution is as it strengthens it begins to gain more latitude into another fish storm. But models seems to really turn this sharply, possibly overdone, so we will have to wait and see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
144. originalLT
1:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2009
Good morning Blizz and everyone, 94L looks alot more put together this morning, and the NHC has put a red circle around it.Looks like a depression to me already. Its environment to its west looks a bit hostile, dry air etc. but things do change rapidly in the tropics. Whats your take Blizz, and others?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7618
143. shoreacres
3:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Oh, Blizzard! Now you're talking Texas winter weather. I saw that word - "overrunning" - and just went all weak in the knees.

Those overrunning systems are what give us what passes for gloomy here - drizzle, damp, gray, and sometimes really good rain. We're going to need that just as soon as we can get it. I'm sure the rest of the country's tired of hearing us moan, but I don't believe I've lived through a summer like this since maybe 1990 - there was one summer I remember being hotter than this year, but I'm too lazy to go look up the stats to be sure it was '90.

In any event, I read this post with interest. Now, I'm going to go rattle the rain stick I brought back from Africa and see what I can stir up, weather-wise. Maybe I should start a graph, and record how long I shake the stick every day and how much precipitation we get! LOL!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
142. Zachary Labe
2:43 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
weathergeek5- Yep that was the first cold front. The second dry cold frontal passage will be tomorrow which will bring in the real cool air and dry air; (-2)-(-3) deviation below normmal trough.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
141. weathergeek5
2:38 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
The storms have arrived with some good winds. Now it is pouring here. These storms are associated with the actual front correct?
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140. Zachary Labe
2:00 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Dewpoint slowly falling now down in the mid 60s here.
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139. weathergeek5
1:00 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Those storms may hit me too. They issued a Special weather statement.
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138. TheRasberryPatch
12:47 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
for the day i am at 0.16" of rain
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
137. Zachary Labe
12:44 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Yep the radar was more impressive than the actual storm. Up to .17inches of rain here for the day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
136. RkTec
12:35 AM GMT on August 30, 2009
Got .13 inches of rain from that line. Maybe one crack of thunder. Looked much more impressive on radar compared to what actually happened.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
135. RkTec
11:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Looks like that line will be passing over me around 7:45 p.m. or so, if it doesn't begin to dissipate before then.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
134. TheRasberryPatch
10:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
it appeared that most of the line moved to my north or stayed to my north. i got 0.05" of rain, about 3 mins of rain.

i hope this is the last of the rain for like 10 days. we need a break like that
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
133. TheRasberryPatch
9:45 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
special weather statment for the line of storms. intense reds in that line
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
132. Zachary Labe
9:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Line of thunderstorms moving through here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
131. wxgeek723
7:30 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting lawntonlookers:
It looks like cape may and southern NJ got a lot of rainfall from Danny. Just saw where one location had 1.18 inches in 10 min.


Where was this if I may ask?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3590
130. originalLT
6:45 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
I see Blizz, but 94L looks better. Interesting that they would down grade its chances.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7618
129. TheRasberryPatch
6:12 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
that shower just moved through here and dumped 0.09" on me
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
128. Mason803
5:57 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
rain totals for adams county:

carroll valley 2.11"

orrtanna 1.89"

mostly sunny here with a temp of 81 and a dew around 70. hope the heating aids in stronger t-storm development as front nears
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
127. Zachary Labe
5:03 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- The front doesn't have much moisture and will only produce a narrow band of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. A little rain shower just moved through here with .04inches of rain.

lawntonlookers- Looks like coastal Massachusetts will receive quite a lot of rain.

originalLT- Lol, that is why I stay out of there. I see the NHC has downgraded 94L to less than a 30% chance of developing.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
126. originalLT
4:30 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Back to weather, convection seems to be firing-up around the apparent center of 94L, looking much better now.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7618
125. originalLT
3:50 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Just visited Dr. Masters blog, there is so much bickering and fighting there, I hate to visit it now, its too bad.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7618
124. lawntonlookers
3:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
It looks like cape may and southern NJ got a lot of rainfall from Danny. Just saw where one location had 1.18 inches in 10 min.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
123. TheRasberryPatch
3:31 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
sorry Blizz. i wasn't clear. i meant for us. will we see any influence or will the front have its own moisture? also, do you foresee any severe conditions with the front?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
122. Zachary Labe
3:13 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It should be a bit breezy over the bays and Atlantic coastline with some high surf. Probably small craft advisory thresholds for most areas in the Middle Atlantic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
121. TheRasberryPatch
2:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
do you still expect a marine influence from Danny when the front approaches? i was reading that in your blog.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
120. Zachary Labe
2:47 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Best dynamics are to our north and east today. If we get anything it will be from a heavy rain shower from the cold front passage.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
119. TheRasberryPatch
2:31 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Blizz, do you still foresee moisture streaming into our area today?

it looks like most of the thick clouds and moisture is along the coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
118. weathergeek5
2:27 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Ok. I will ask again as it gets closer.
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117. Zachary Labe
2:22 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Well Danny is extratropical and a depression. I can't say my forecast track was horrible issued a few days ago, hahaha. Here was one of my forecast points... 35N 75W here is where he is this morning... 34.3N 74.6W. But his intensity is weaker than thought and really should only affect the Cape Cod coastline.

weathergeek5- That is pretty far off, but I do think temperatures will be warming. GFS and ECMWF pump up a ridge on the east coast and trough in the west in about a week or two time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
116. weathergeek5
2:20 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
I saw the extended forecast for me and I am shocked with the cool temps that are coming. Next Friday I go on vacation. I will go to the beach for labor day weekend and come back just to do things around the house. How will the weather be then?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
115. Zachary Labe
2:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Good morning all!!! Dense fog here this morning with a total of .62inches of rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
114. originalLT
12:37 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
Good morning Blizz and all, huge blow-up of clouds off Va. Md. and De. coasts, radar shows a heck of alot of precip associated with that blow-up. Also 94L looks pretty weak, Blizz you were right, you didn't have much faith in its developement, but I guess it still could. By the way, 2 winning tickets in the Mega-ball Lotto, one sold in the Bronx, the other in Calif. I guess Sulli didn't win, darn it, no party!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7618
113. TheRasberryPatch
11:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
good morning. it looks like the heavy rain is to our east.

0.97 since yesterday
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
112. synthman19872003
3:43 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Didn't get too much rain out of that storm this evening. It fizzled out as it went through, but that storm earlier today gave us a lot more. Looks like we'll end the day right around a half inch total.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
111. Snowlover2010
3:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Officially 3in of rain so far and still coming. Several accidents in the Lancaster city to Lititz area, with several reports of high water on roadways. Anyone traveling in this area BE CAUTIOUS. Thats all from me for the day. Have a good night and everyone stay safe.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
110. Zachary Labe
2:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Take a look at this WU link. It lists the latest Carroll County, Maryland flood reports... Link.

Snowlover2010- PWATs remain several deviations above normal so there is still a lot of moisture aloft. More rounds of heavy showers will continue to move through some areas tonight through early tomorrow morning before the best dynamics slip to our north.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
109. Snowlover2010
2:27 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Looks like rain might be ending in an hour or two. Think much more will get going after this moves out?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
108. TheRasberryPatch
2:26 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
i guess i didn't know that Blizz. yes we are fortunate. we have had a lot of flooding surrounding out area.
i am used to seeing the type of flooding you described on tv in arizona or texas but not around here

pretty serious stuff.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
107. Zachary Labe
2:11 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- We have been really fortunate the last couple of years here in the Lower Susquehanna being that the Susquehanna River basin is one of the most flood prone rivers in the United States. And with all this rain this Summer, a few cells stalled could have caused massive flash flooding in isolated locations. But again we were fortunate and that was non-existent.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
106. TheRasberryPatch
2:04 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
wow, that is a lot of rain Blizz for Carroll County. like i said my wife and i had our first house in Carroll County, but more to the southern part of the county. Manchester i believe is around rt 30.

you don't hear about rain and flooding that high too often around here, maybe flash flooding, but not like that.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
105. Zachary Labe
1:54 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
RkTec- Good evening! Haha, I cannot remember a time where my lawn was this green in August. It has been cut a lot, but just a beautiful green the whole summer. Wow; alot of rain up there. I saw that flash flood warning out there this morning, though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
104. RkTec
1:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I can't wait until winter gets here just to put an end to this record breaking grass cutting.

So far 2.48 inches of rain here just a little south of Allentown. Had some flash flooding early this morning.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
103. Zachary Labe
1:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- Alrightly, glad to see the winter bloggers are beginning to come out of hiding, lol. I will be glad when the tropics are over too, lol.

Snowlover2010- I am definitely watching Lancaster County. Thunderstorms continue to train over the same areas from Maryland northward into your county.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
102. Snowlover2010
1:27 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Rainfall estimates in my area of 2-2.5in and still coming down good. Could be an interesting night.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
101. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:23 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I'll go back to hibernating until Labor Day, then. Looking forward to this tropics hype blowing over.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
100. Zachary Labe
1:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- Hey! How's it going? My annual winter forecast will be out the typical date of Labor Day so we can really start speculating then. Thanks for stopping by!

weathergeek5- Radar estimates 6+inches of rain. People's pools have overflowed with roads closed and higher elevations underwater with farm fields flooded over with over a foot of water. Sounds like a mess.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
99. weathergeek5
1:12 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Widespread flooding is being reported in Carroll County, Maryland with roads underwater according to eyewitnesses and mudslides. People are traveling less than 5mph on major roads with water up the the car doors. This is according to several people down near Manchester.


Wow mother nature should start letting up with the rain. The area cannot handle much more rain.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
98. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:00 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Is it time to start talking snow yet?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
97. Zachary Labe
12:42 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Widespread flooding is being reported in Carroll County, Maryland with roads underwater according to eyewitnesses and mudslides. People are traveling less than 5mph on major roads with water up the the car doors. This is according to several people down near Manchester.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
96. sullivanweather
12:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I haven't gone down to look at the gauge yet. TOO COLD!! LOL!!

I'm going out soon, though. I just remembered megamillions is 325 something million dollars and I figure what the hell, right?

For 325 million dollars I'll toss my hat in the ring.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
95. Zachary Labe
12:33 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
sullivanweather- Good evening! Yep, I got what I wished for a rainy day, lol. How much rainfall up there so far? Looks like northeastern Massachusetts looks to be hot spot for heavy rain through tomorrow. HPC excessive rainfall risks points a 5inch+ threat over them.

Snowlover2010- Lol. They have odd shifts at the NWS and with a dreary day, who knows.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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