Saturday thoughts on snow chances...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:52 PM GMT on January 18, 2008

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"Afternoon thoughts"
Good afternoon! Sorry for the late update, but was a little too busy yesterday to post.

With this cold weather lately I have noticed ice forming along the major rivers including the Susquehanna River here in Harrisburg, PA. Remember though the ice is not near thick enough to walk on so take caution if around waterways. Hypothermia easily can occur in water for only a few minutes. Every year the are a few deaths across the state for people falling into ice. Awareness is what we all need to spread about water/ice safety.

Pictures of ice on Susquehanna River (just north of Harrisburg)...
Ice on river...

Ice on Susquehanna River near the Rockville Railroad Bridge...

Anyway last night a weak disturbance moved through the region and actually created some snow. The upsloping factors of the mountains actually helped to create the lift and by the early morning hours snow was falling. A widespread 1-3inches of snow fell around the I-80 area. About 25miles on either side of the interestate was the region of accumulating snow. And it went as far east as Williamsport. State College area seemed to get hit the hardest. Now the left over snow showers are still moving through the northern half of the state. Currently near DuBois a pretty intense snow shower is moving through and may limit visibility to near 1mile for a time. A additional half inch accumulation is possible in that region.

Then tonight another little more potent disturbance moves through and affects the whole state. Warm air advection snow will break out across just about everywhere. Some drier air across the eastern part of the state may limit the snow. But from the extreme western part of the state to the York-Harrisburg-Wilksbarre-Scranton line is where the accumulating snow will be. Another C-3inches of snow looks likely. The 3inches will be confined to elevations above 2000ft. That disturbance is currently located over Wisconsin and will begin dropping southeast towards the northern middle atlantic by nightfall. Snow showers should end by 10am Sunday morning in all locations. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid20s which will create snow ratios of 15:1-20:1. This will enhance the snow. In areas that do see snow, it will accumulate on the roads so take care driving around late tonight and Sunday morning.

There has been lots of talk about the coastal storm developing tonight and moving northeast about 100-200miles off the coast. This will have no impact on Pennsylvania weather. Some areas in Cape Cod and Nantucket may get scaped by some precipitation that may be heavy for a time, but it shouldn't cause too many problems as it will be only a mix of wet snow and rain. Warmer air will get drawn in into these coastal areas. This storm will make loops in the open Atlantic for a few days due to the blocking high over Newfoundland, but should not cause many problems to any land masses. The only problems will be found in shipping lanes. To the United States we will only see the Massachusetts and Maine coastlines impacted with the mentioned already precipitation and some light coastal flooding with wind gusts to 50mph. Overall the storm should not be that big of deal.

Then by Monday across Pennsylvania things should quiet down and we will be stuck in the clouds for most of the day while temperatures go 5degrees above normal with southern areas seeing highs approach 40 for the first time in a while.

"Short Term"
Ok, for the short term. The forecast is for the first half of the week. Temperatures are going to go above normal by about 5-6degrees. The highest temperatures will be found around Philadelphia with them about 45degrees. These above normal temperatures will occur for Monday and Tuesday. During this time a front will approach from the west. This will be a strong front with moderate rain accompanying it. There may be a large temperature drop that could turn the precipitation to snow after the front moves through for a few hours across western and central areas. The for Wednesday it begins to get cooler with temperatures going back to near normal to just a few degrees above normal. Some people are calling this a January thaw, but not me, it is only going to get a little warmer and it will only last for 2-3days. By thursday another front with a low pressure approaches. Many, many questions remain with this front. Some models including the DGEX bring heavy, heavy snow across the state. Other models such as the GFS bring very warm temperatures with a possible severe weather outbreak. For now I am not even sure what is close to happening. So stay tuned. After that we are entering a stormy weather pattern.

Advisory...
NONE...

Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
Ok, some interesting things are going on in the long term. THe current pattern we are in is with a strong trough over the eastern and central United States. This has been bringing arctic air and for the most part dry conditions. Most coastal storms have been pushed out too sea. And clippers have been entering too dry off an atmosphere to really produce much. Also lake effect snow was at a westerly flow preventing it from becoming too widespread. So overall not too widespread of precipitation, which would be snow due to the cold air.

But now things are changing. Now the long term models, GFS and EURO, are hinting at not as cold of an airmass, but more stormy with just enough cold air for snow. Also it appears the high pressures will become more blocky during these storms. The GFS hints at a wild time during the beginning of February with storm after storm after storm after storm. All of them take a similar storm track of coming out of the gulf of mexico heading through the lower Tennessee Valley and then across the Appalachians then heading up right along the coast moving inland to Massachusetts. In alot of these storms it appear precipitation would start off as heavy rain but then change to snow as the storm moves to the northwest.

Now todays NAO is more negative than yesterdays approaching -1 by some members. This may set the stage for one of these systems in the long term to ride up the coast.

Also to note the NAO was neutral the entire time of this current arctic outbreak.

Now I know most of you are saying to yourself that the GFS always has these monster storms that never happen. This is true. And I am not saying that this inparticular storm will happen. But the point is that we are headed into a new weather pattern similar to the pattern in early December. We will have cool temperatures and possible big storms around.

This winter is not over yet, and I think it still could pull some surprises. So watch out as we are headed into a stormier weather pattern. I do think though after about the 20th of February things begin to warm up before they get cold again in mid March.

Also it will be interesting to see what today's 18z GFS run brings. As that model run for some reason always really intensifies the cold and storms in the long term. It is fun to dream about some of the storms that never come to fruitation. For now stay warm as more arctic air is moving in for Thursday.


Current NAO...
NAO...
*Note the negative trend.

Current PNA...
PNA...
*Note the trend of becoming neutal.


"Just to throw out there"

Well in this section I am quickly going to give my prediction for the rest of January.

I think that this week the arctic air sticks around before it slowly begins to moderate temperature wise. I do think the models too quickly throughout the cold air for this weekend. Then for next week it slightly warms up to slightly above normal temperatures, but then it cools down by the end of the week where some significant storms could enter the picture. Temperatures during the very end of January will probably be near normal. I do not think most people see any much more snow statewide before January comes to a close. The jet stream appears to favor storms heading up through the great lakes putting us in the warm sector.
*Note I will issue my February forecast during the first few days of the new month.

"Regional Forecasts" (Saturday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Cloudy. Flurry in northern sections. High 33.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Cloudy with a passing flurry late. High 32.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Mostly cloudy. High 35.

4. Central- (State College)-
A few snow showers. Additional Coating of snow. High 24.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Snow showers. Additional C-1inch of snow. High 23.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Flurries with a passing snow shower. Cloudy. High 27.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
A few flurries with cloudy conditions. High 25.

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)...
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 9.25inches
Monthly Total... 2.75inches
Daily Total... light coating
Snow Cover... .5inch in shaded areas

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.

Regional Map...

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88. WeatherBobNut
6:29 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
Hi cchamp6, i'm here just south of Scranton, Pa.....that precip went through without a single flake! RATS!!! Locals were calling for a coating to 2 inches...i had to laugh....I'm looking forward however to the next 3 weeks as the pattern looks stormy with better chances for snowstorms....time will tell....sigh....
87. Zachary Labe
6:19 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
lawntonlookers- around 8pm last night for about 1hr light snow fell. It actually completely coated the ground and roads in my area.

New week, new blog coming soon!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
86. cchamp6
4:03 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
Weatherbobnut, where are you located? That damn virga is worst than no snow at all!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
85. lawntonlookers
3:59 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
Good morning BLIZZ. Just stopped in quickly to see what is going on. Stopped by TAZ site and some new pictures that were posted. When I went out this morning I noted about a dozen snow pelets on the car so I guess we did get a little bit sometime during the night. Doesn't look like much happening over the next few days, but will check in on Monday to see what is going on.

By the way, some nice pictures of the Narrows and the Rockville Bridge. Kind of strange that the river hasn't frozen over yet, but with the warm temp I can understand..

Have a great day
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
84. WeatherBobNut
5:09 AM GMT on January 27, 2008
Just like i thought earlier Blizzard.....100% Verga went through here, not a flake! Radar was all lit up nice and blue, but with dewpoints at 10, no chance of it reaching the ground. Our local weather reports an icy mix for next weekends storm....Looks to start as rain, then go over to a wet snow.
83. Zachary Labe
1:38 AM GMT on January 27, 2008
830pm 10miles northeast of Harrisburg...

Light snow
4mile visibility
coating on ground
28degrees
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
82. WeatherBobNut
9:00 PM GMT on January 26, 2008
Yes, not expecting much here in the Scranton area, i think it will be mostly the dreaded "Verga" as it moves through here due to the Dewpoint at only 9! Ouch...oh well, bye bye precip.....sigh....
81. Zachary Labe
4:34 PM GMT on January 26, 2008
lawntonlookers- Good morning. It will be interesting to see how the warm air advection snow works out across our area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
80. lawntonlookers
4:00 PM GMT on January 26, 2008
Good morning;

Just stoped in quickly to see what was going on. Blizz, I don't think Harrisburg will get much because of the low humidity. Most of the snow probably won't hit the ground.

Quite some storm on the West Coast again. Have to run and will probably check in again on Sunday. Have a Great Day
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
79. Zachary Labe
1:51 AM GMT on January 26, 2008
jthal57- We still have to watch the coastal storm. There is the potential to affect us, but I highly doubt it.

Anyway I would say a widespread C-3inches of snow will fall saturday night due to the warm air advection.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
78. jthal57
12:04 AM GMT on January 26, 2008
hey blizzard; what's your take on this little snow event sat.nite and sunday? I don't think that low develops enough off coast to effect us on Sunday. our local accuweather here in lehigh valley talking about 1 in. accum. Sat. nite
77. Zachary Labe
8:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2008
Cape May, Wildwoods, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Tuckerton, N.J......All saw about 2-3 inches today. I know, because I was in it!

Lucky you!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
76. Stormfront
2:55 AM GMT on January 25, 2008
Cape May, Wildwoods, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Tuckerton, N.J......All saw about 2-3 inches today. I know, because I was in it!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
75. Zachary Labe
9:15 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
Front moving through central Pennsylvania with some heavy snow showers. Take care driving out there. Expect an additional C-2inches in most spots in central Pennsylvania through evening. Some snow showers may make it east of the mountains shortly. I will have an update again if this happens.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
74. Zachary Labe
8:16 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
dean2007- yes that is the low

Snowlover2010- It is not going to pull moisture is to eastern Pennsylvania. Whoever said that is just using wishful thinking. Clearly by radar the low is moving east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
73. Snowlover2010
7:17 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
People keep saying the storm will move west and people in eastern PA will see light snow. Why is this? The storm seems to being going out to sea. Will it really come back to the coast?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
72. dean2007
5:39 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
Blizzard is this the low?Link
70. WeatherBobNut
4:35 AM GMT on January 24, 2008
Good evening Blizzard and all....Yes, i do see the latest NAO forcast and all i can say is...WOW! I haven't seen it forcast to take a dive like that in a while. I did chack the latest runs and it does trent farther to the east....It was showing as a great lakes cutter for the last few runs....If the NAO does go into the -1 phase, then i will start jumping on board for a BIG ONE....I'm hoping i can write my next blog titled..."The Ground Hog Day Blizzard" ....wishfull thinking, but February always does have some good storms......last Valentines day, we all remember that one.....i had 5 inches of pure sleet all night followed by 10 inches of snow on top of that.....I-81 in my area was at a complete stand still for days.....I don't want that to happen, but i would like to use my snow blower soon.....i finally got one and i only used it once all winter so far.....sigh....Lets hope the FEB 2nd storm HOLDS!!! PLEEEZE!!
69. Stormfront
3:16 AM GMT on January 24, 2008
Well, once again, here we are in a situation where the models are telling us one thing, but our gut feelings are telling us something else. If we look back on the past several storms, they have all pretty much followed the same track....right up the eastern seaboard. Why would this storm be any different? I have seen this set up over the years at least a dozen times. NWS says it will rapidly intensify and head out to sea. I don't know exactely what is going to take place, but I do see a low over Michigan, another low over Indiana, and yet a third low over western Virginia/N. Carolina. All seem to be on a collision course for the Middle Atlantic Coast. I have learned not to make predictions, but it seems to me that with all that energy coming together, I would think there would be a little more than "Snowshowers" occuring. But I've been wrong before!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
68. Stormfront
2:05 AM GMT on January 24, 2008
There you go, Blizz. Your seeing what I'm seeing! The little clipper low has actually retrograded back west.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
67. Zachary Labe
1:54 AM GMT on January 24, 2008
Stormfront- I have noticed that tonight. There seems to be a delay in the blocking that would make the storm head straight out to sea.

What do you think will happen with this storm?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
66. Stormfront
1:41 AM GMT on January 24, 2008
I wouldn't put Thursday's storm out to sea just yet. I'm not convinced it's going to go out to sea just yet. Not saying it will go up the coast, but not saying it won't either.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
65. Zachary Labe
9:41 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Yes, I saw the 18z NAM and I do not think that you will see as much precipitation as it prints out.
Read my short term and I talk about Cape Cod.

Also for ocean effect I think it may be intense but short lived. Still you may see 1-2inches purely of ocean effect. Maybe a little more. I have doubts about the coastal storm affecting you, but still its worth monitoring.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
64. dean2007
9:29 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Blizzard, did you see the 18z NAM, what are your thoughts on the Ocean Effect potential? Have the percentages changed, for good or bad?
63. Zachary Labe
8:24 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
lawntonlookers- Thankyou. The storm tommorow will be to far southeast to affect us. Just a C-1inch of snow with the arctic front is what we can expect.

WeatherBobNut- For Feb 2 I am not ready to say that will run through the great lakes. Alot of questions remain with that storm. Also the NAO is really now forecast to head negative. Almost all ensemble members agree
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
62. WeatherBobNut
3:40 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Models continue to show a very large system in the east come Ground Hogs Day....It looks like a rain event so far but the great lakes area could get a lot of snow if the models hold..."Which i doubt!"
The NAM has been the most accurate model so i would only trust that model this year. The euro has been pretty good as well. The DGEX ...ahh, ok...

Still waiting on the BIG ONE....we're WAY overdue...It looks to ramain cold right through the first half of Feb with mini warm-ups in between....March looks stormy as well...i'm expecting at least one good storm before we start sweating again....sigh...
61. lawntonlookers
3:22 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Good morning Bliz: Your blog has been getting a lot of attention lately. You put a lot of time in it also. I am not sure about Thursday as it appears the system sill be to our east. Ground Hog day a little over a week away so we will have to see what his forcast is. 7 more weeks of winter wouldn't be bad at the rate the winter has been going so far.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
60. WeatherBobNut
4:10 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
Here we go again!!! LOL....great blog Blizzard. I'm not buying the Ground Hog Day storm just yet....i have to see the models over the next few days. I do agree we are going back to a stormy pattern. The NAO has been nutral for days now and is finally forcast to go negative the begining of FEB...I think before this winter is over, we will see that ONE big storm that dumps a LOT of snow for all....Them Margusity could wear his pathetic "BIG DADDY" hat! LMAO!!! Next he'll have the sweat shirt to go with it! Jeez...Anyway, i hope we do get that big storm soon, i'm very bored with these baby storms....sigh.....


-Weather Bob ;-(
59. eaglesrock
2:40 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
This storm will go out to sea. Just watch.
58. dean2007
2:36 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
It looks ok, still not convinced, we need all the models to do the same thing and it needs to start Thursday morning and last to Friday, but you know what its not, because snow is not on our side this year. Especially those on the coast.
57. Snowlover2010
2:22 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
0z NAM looks great for snow in Eastern PA. on Thursday Maybe 3-6 inches?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
56. Zachary Labe
1:28 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
Yes there may be a system near that date. Alot of models point it out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
55. eaglesrock
12:19 AM GMT on January 23, 2008
18z GFS ensembles at 252 hours...



Euro at 240 hours...



GGEM at 240 hours...



Feb. 2-3 storm? I'll post a new blog on this soon.
54. Snowlover2010
11:23 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Hey Blizzard check out the snow map I put on my blog and tell me what you think about it.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
53. Snowlover2010
11:13 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Never mind I figured it out. Hope we get a few inches of snow on Thursday!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
52. Snowlover2010
11:01 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
hey blizzard, how do you post a picture in your blog
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
51. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Snowlover2010- Sorry about the poor forecast for today. I only saw a few flurries here in Harrisburg.

I think the Thursday storm holds many questions, yet. But the potential is there for a light accumulation of snow here in southern pennsylvania. Stay tuned to my blog as I will have many updates on this situation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
50. Snowlover2010
9:21 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Well here in Lancaster we are over 6 inches in snow drought. I hope we get some Thursday. Maybe 3 or 4 inches for us. What do you think Blizzard?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
49. dean2007
9:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Man it seems the Mid Atlantic states get the stronger storms and in terms of snow then we do here in MA. Although its more then what we had last winter.
48. Zachary Labe
8:55 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Thursday is another little sloppy storm, but then blows up into a monster out to sea storm, nonetheless it will be fascinating to see it develop off the coast and know that we will not see snow from this one either. It will either rain or be too cold to snow, which one would you prefer, the NAO shows signs of going into a negative phase sometime in the beginning of February. Thats why Henry is getting excited. Blocking pattern appears to be developing sometime next week.

I like the cold. I do think someone sees snow out of this coastal storm on thursday in the middle atlantic. I will update my blog soon!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
47. dean2007
8:53 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Thursday is another little sloppy storm, but then blows up into a monster out to sea storm, nonetheless it will be fascinating to see it develop off the coast and know that we will not see snow from this one either. It will either rain or be too cold to snow, which one would you prefer, the NAO shows signs of going into a negative phase sometime in the beginning of February. Thats why Henry is getting excited. Blocking pattern appears to be developing sometime next week.
46. WeatherBobNut
5:39 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
Yes...i too want the mother of all storms....so does Margusity! LOL!!! He's talking about the long range again and thinking of putting his "Big Daddy" hat back on around Feb 4th....lmao....the guy is MAD!

I personally think February will be the month for the BIG storm where most everyone will pick up 10-15 inches...no mixing! All snow...We're heading into a stormy pattern again and i feel instead of being teased by these puppy storms, we'll get a BIG ONE soon...i feel in the next three weeks we'll see one...:-) Hang in there....the snow gods will answer....you'll see....:-)))
45. Stormfront
2:00 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
I'd love to see a huge record busting snowstorm just as much as the rest of you, but lets not get to over excited about these sloppy little slushstorms. Hopefully, the "Mother" of all blizzards is out there, just lurking for a chance to pounce on us in the next few weeks.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
44. Stormfront
1:38 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
I agree. But will the warm air move farther north over the next 12 hours? Remember Blizz, the models don't always tell the entire truth! The models are just telling you what they think will happen. And we both know how the models have been screwing up lately.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
43. Zachary Labe
1:33 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
Also the 850mb line on the models is way south into Maryland. That line is the indicater of how warm it is in the upper atmosphere. If warming was really in the upper atmosphere then the 850line would be farthur north.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
42. Zachary Labe
1:29 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
Cold air is denser than warm air.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
41. Stormfront
1:23 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
Surface map shows a 1040 milabar High off the coast of N. Carolina. Clockwise flow would bring warm air up from the gulf ahead of the next low. That would warm the upper atmosphere up pretty quick.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
40. Stormfront
1:17 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
I hear ya guys, but you have to ask yourself....Where is the NWS seeing this warm air coming from and do they know something we aren't seeing? Maybe a warm air over running situation? That would explain them hinting about a possible freezing rain scenerio in certain areas! Let's discuss it.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
39. Zachary Labe
1:02 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
I do not think it is going to mix with rain. They are consistently making horrible forecasts. They are always way to warm and not enough snow this winter. I am really getting mad at them. (NWS)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
38. jthal57
12:28 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
Can ya tell we're all anxious for snow?? I'm getting excited for just a couple of inches! Looks like east of Harrisburg is in 1-3" range, sans Philly area. Maybe a bit more in Poconos/Scranton? NWS wants rain to mix in late afternoon. I dont' see it, especially here in Lehigh Valley with temps expected to go down to 12F tonite. Any thoughts?

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