Where is Summer???

By: Zachary Labe , 1:15 AM GMT on June 21, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 6/20)
Well I am back from a very nice trip with abnormally disturbing weather for mid June standards. I first want to thank everyone for each and every great observation. It makes everything real easy to take a look back at the weather in the region. On to the trip... We stayed in Corolla, NC in the southern end of town along the ocean. The drive that was supposed to take about 6 or so hours took exactly 12 hours thanks to beautiful traffic and construction on the beltways outside Washington DC, Baltimore, and Richmond. Then another area of traffic was located getting onto the Outerbanks on the Wright Brother's Memorial Bridge. The trip down was all rain with very heavy rain in Corolla until the mid evening. Areas of flooding did occur on the island. The first half of the week we were north of the warm front with a coastal low sitting a few hundred miles off the Atlantic Coast. This caused abnormally high tides promting a Coastal Flood Warning and several Coastal Flood Advisories. The water was near 4ft higher than normal during high tide. The southeasterly strong fetch also caused quite a many riptides which in fact they closed the beach for one day. I also witnessed several water rescues on Friday. Then one night during the week a severe thunderstorm that hit Virginia Beach up the coastline traveled south to the northern Outerbanks. Heating lightning occured for nearly 45minutes before and after the storm. Then the storm hit with about 1inch of rain and several CTG strikes, one possibly striking a beach home as I heard many fire trucks during and after the storm. The next morning dense fog occured even with the sun completely out in clear skies. The RH was near 100% and the fog did not burn out until noon. Several days the high was only in the low 70s and many of nights were very, very chilly. Finally on Friday the sun appeared completely admist a 3mile haze for a decent beach day with a high near 80. Overall the beach weather was not the best including the surf which was quite rough. But I did learn quite a bit about forecasting marine forecast and tide levels which may come in handy this tropics season. I also picked up two local weather books to add to my library of meteorological books. I picked up "The Great Storms of North Carolina" and "The Ash Wednesday Storm." We had a really great time and I enjoyed myself here much better than even Emerald Isle in the southern Outerbanks. I took a few day trips such as the Wright Brothers and Lighthouses. I am a large collector and enjoy visiting lighthouses. So now my travels end for now... I come back here to 74degrees and a stiff northwest wind, Fall? Anyways have a great day!!! Attached are a few pictures I took.

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 6/20)
1000mb Low pressure and associated cold front near the tri-state region will be departing out into the Atlantic. But it will churn and move slowly off shore posing the threat for some rain showers and isolated pea sized hail thunder showers with freezing levels below 10,000ft on Sunday. Rain showers will not be too widespread and generally confined to the higher elevations. Another cold pocket aloft approaches for Monday afternoon causing similar conditions to Sunday, but more across the eastern half of the state. The low pressure will begin to stall several hundred miles offshore putting Pennsylvania in a cyclonic flow with winds out of the northwest. H85s remain around 10C under the northwest flow keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal for the first half of the week. Current operation guidance including the GFS and ECMWF keep the low far enough offshore to prevent rain showers for the week, but still partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with cloudier skies the farther east one travels. Thankfully the low remains far enough north that we do not fall under a southeast wind otherwise a marine layer would dominate our forecast our week. Towards Wednesday the flow does turn a bit more easterly with some light drizzle and light rain less than .1inches of QPF for eastern Pennsylvania with some 500' ceilings and possible 1-2mile visibility fog near Philadelphia. A ridge of warmth and weak high pressure moves in for the second half of the week through Thursday and the first half of Friday with a return to warmer conditions with H85s near 15C and highs near normal. Sunshine will prevail. A high cirrus deck will likely approach ahead of the next frontal system towards Friday and Saturday as several thunderstorm complexes approach for the first half of the weekend. Convection may be widespread along with another chance of heavier rain. Current GFS guidance suggests over 1inch of rain once again as the front slowly progresses over the region. The front looks to stall over the region with pessimistic guidance suggesting rainfall through the beginning of the next week. Once again pattern change for the short term does not look likely.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecast" (Updated 6/20)
Sunday- The region remains under a northwest cyclonic flow with a more typical fall like regime with strato-cumulus over the higher elevations thanks to some additional lift. Temperatures look to be below normal with highs across the north and mountains in the upper 60s with highs across the south in the mid 70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy across the region and with some heating of the day there will likely be some rain showers that form some of which could be heavier with pea sized hail, but that would be isolated at best. Rainfall amounts should not exceed .25inches in any one locale. With sunset should cause a decline in cloud cover and rain showers should become more intermittent. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the state under a northerly flow.

Monday- Monday looks slightly similar to Sunday, but with some more sunshine. Another very weak wave approaches the region tapping some light and spotty rain showers over the eastern half of the state especially in the Poconos. Cloud cover will generally be partly cloudy skies with a cumulus deck. Rainfall should not exceed .1inches in most locations. Highs will be slightly below normal once again with low 70s over the north to upper 70s across the south. Areas in western Pennsylvania though will see more sunshine and the Pittsburgh metro area may approach 80degrees. Monday night will feature clear skies early in the evening with some clouds moving east to west from a weak marine layer thanks to the low pressure offshore. Lows will be in the 60s statewide.

Tuesday- Cloudy skies will be generally across extreme eastern Pennsylvania with nicer conditions the farther west one goes. Some light rain showers are possible over the east as an area of energy from the churning low pressure brings in some spotty showers with rainfall generally less than .1inches. Highs will greatly vary across the state as western areas see more sunshine than the east. Highs in the east will struggle to reach 80degrees, but 85degrees is possible across the west especially in the Pittsburgh metro region. Tuesday night will feature low clouds especially near Philadelphia with ceilings near 500-1000ft and possible spotty drizzle and light fog with visibilities from 1-3miles. Lows will be once again in the 60s across Pennsylvania.

Wednesday- The weak wave will depart along with the low across the North Atlantic shipping lanes so conditions will be improving throughout the day with sunshine possible for all areas by evening. Some light rain is even possible in the morning for eastern areas with amounts generally less than .1inches. The stratus deck will slowly move out to sea and will cause highs to be near normal or slightly below normal for the east. But once again across the west there will be near normal to slightly above normal temperatures under the full sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 70s in the east to mid 80s across the west. Wednesday night will feature improving conditions will generally clear to partly cloudy skies in the east with lows once again in the 60s.

Thursday- A ridge of warm weather and weak high pressure will approach the region turning the flow more typical of that of summer from the south-southwest. Humidity and dewpoint levels will be on the increase to near 60 for the Susquehanna Valley. Highs will be near normal to slightly below normal under brilliant sunshine with highs in the 80s statewide. Thursday night will feature clear skies with mild overnight lows generally in the 70s statewide.

Friday- Sunshine will prevail only with a slight increase in clouds from the west ahead of the next weather system. Any cloud cover will generally be high and wispy cirrus. Humidity levels will continue to increase with dewpoints touching the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley near the Mason-Dixon line. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s statewide. Friday night will feature an increase in clouds with possible showers and thunderstorms late especially across the west. Rainfall amounts will be near .25inches for areas that receive rainfall.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 6/20)
Once again with quite a bit of rainfall during the past week, it appears the fire threat for natural forest fires remains low the next seven days. Our wildfire seasons while minor are typically in the fall in spring as there is a lack of foliage on the trees making for dry brush. The nest seven days will not be seeing as much rain as the last seven so dry fuel levels will increase later in the week, but any threat should be quite minimal. So after some thought I was thinking on changing this secton to a Chesapeake Bay forecast section for tides and such along with updates on winds and currents. But I was wondering on what every thought about the idea and whether it would be of any use for anyone. Write down a comment or shoot me by a Wunderground mail on your thoughts. Thanks!

Here again are the fire criteria for development in Pennsylvania... Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 6/20)
I will admit I was a bit excited to return to see how my gardens grew especially after just so much rainfall. My annuals in pots are growing terrific especially my impatients and sweet potato vines. Perennials are also growing nice with several flowers blooming on the bee balm and hydrangea. It appears about a little over 2inches of rain fell here while I was gone during the past seven days. My vegetables grew relatively nicely, but they are definitely lacking due to the lack of heat. My zucchini grew beautifully and already is starting with small yellow flowers. The pickling cucumber also grew very nicely and I built two trellises for then ti grow up on. Remember last year I let the cucumber plant grow along the ground and I ended up with a very low harvest. The beets are growing slow, but seem healthy and may need some thinning out later this week. The radishes are about down and I may plant another summer variety shortly. My tomato plants are just massive especially my Early Girl. The roma and cherry varieties have little green tomatoes, none of which have ripened. The watermelon and cantelope also seem healthy and are growing nice long vines. The herbs are growing nicely although the cilantro has bolted flowers which I need to snip immmediantly. The onions and garlic continue to grow over two feet high and look very healthy; the leeks are also very similar. My yellow wax beens look very nice and are about 2-3inches tall after I planted seed about a week and a half ago. My pepper plants are very slow to grow and need immediantly some hot weather. My blueberry bushes have some unripened berries, which will need picked in the beginning of July most likely. The celery plants continue to grow, but I just do not see a stalk anywhere. Sadly all of my lettuce bolted so I will need to replace that area likely with zucchini or more tomatoes. The Swiss Chard continues to look great and has a wonderful spinach like flavor. Everything continues to grow very nicely and likely the second week of July will be my yearly vegetable gardening blog where everyone shares their pictures!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 6/20)
Severe weather chances will be relatively quiet this week as generally high pressure remains in control along with a slight easterly flow along the coastline as a low pressure churns off the coast several hundred miles. The next frontal system poses at the region towards Friday and Saturday with a cutoff low to the north in Canada. This displaces the highest winds to the north, but with a southerly flow along the warm front ahead of the cold front could position some form of MCS complex across the Northeast with as always the threat of wind damage, lightning, and very heavy rain common from these events. But this threat is nearly seven days away so at this point threat level is quite minimal. During this previous week I saw there was quite a bit of severe weather in the Pittsburgh region with intense flash flooding and funnel clouds with hail and wind damage. Training thunderstorms really dumped quite a bit of water nearly 6inches in some locations on the western side of the north-south ridges. Also some flash flooding occurred in the Northeast Mountains in Susquehanna and Bradford Counties. Wind damage also occured in the western mountains of Butler County and surrounding ares with several severe thunderstorm warnings being issued for the strong cells. Also finally some severe weather occurred today with wind damage across York and Lancaster County from a supercell that proceeded into Maryland causing an EF-1 tornado near Essex in Baltimore County with top winds of 90mph with damage to several homes and many trees and power lines down. So overall the threat for severe weather for at least the next five days looks slim.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (June)
Well I guess there has to be a best and worst with everything and my recent May forecast was my worst monthly forecast to date. My call for warmer and drier temperatures definitely did not pan out as temperatures were slightly below normal to normal and precipitation was well above normal. This pattern is very strange we are in with a very solid negative NAO and strong positive PNA. MJO also has been pretty steady in the higher phases such as 6,7,8. These phases are quite favorable for east coast troughing. Interesting to note is the currently 3.4 Nino status. SSTs are rapidly warming as the Hadley cell departs the region and immediant term wise SSTs rose enough to be classified as a weak El Nino. But the CPC waits for a certain length of time for classification. We also have a favorable Greenland blocking creating these troughs in the east. Looking at the long term model runs they continue this winter like jet stream pattern with troughing over the east and a strong ridge in the west. This also will combine with these consistent stalled fronts. Rainfall looks plentiful this month with some GFS model runs indicating 4-6inches of rainfall in the first half of the month with some areas 6-8inches of QPF. This pattern looks to continue for most of the month as the pattern seems very consistant. The remnants of the La Nina continue to dominate the flow and this pattern appears to do so. My Summer Outlook so far is not looking great unless we can see some signs of the troughing backing off in the east and have the Bermuda high and Southeast ridge build in. For now the pattern will be cooler than normal temperatures with periods of heavy rain. Severe weather will be common for those south of the occluded fronts. Here are more details...

Temperature- I am calling for normal to slightly below normal temperatures as a trough dominates the weather here in the east and cloud cover keeps a hold on highs even in warm sectors. Temperatures anomalies should be in the (-1.2)-(-.2) sector. The best chance of warmer temperatures will be extreme southern Pennsylvania closer to the warm sector in these stalled frontal situations.

Precipitation- I am calling for well above normal precipitation as we continue to be right in the perfect region for these stalled fronts. Rainfall will be common with many overrunning situations. Also MCS complexes will be common overnight as severe weather in the southern Great Lakes creates weak complexes of nocturnal thunderstorms. The month will be wettest in the first two thirds.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 6/20)
The Atlantic remains relatively quiet as we continue to move through the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Lack of any surface feature along with high shear levels will continue to preclude tropical chances likely for the next five days or so. A non tropical coastal low will be tracking several hundred miles off the east coast, but the only threat to the lower 48 would be heightened tides along the coast about 1ft above normal along with a heightened chance of rip currents particularily from the Jersey Shore on northward through Cape Cod. The Eastern Pacific looks a bit more active, but still relatively calm givin the East Pacific Hurricane Season begins earlier than the Atlantic. A weakening area of showers and an isolated thunderstorm southeast of the Hawaiian Islands will cause little to no impact with a low threat of developing. Off the coast of Mexico remains a large area of thunderstorms and rain showers slowly organizing. As winds aloft begin to weaken some possibly development is likely as the tropical wave moves westward. Any threat to the coastline remains very low. An update on El Nino proves that sea surface temperatures continue to warm to above normal levels in the Central Pacific. NOAA has issued an El Nino watch and likely the El Nino will keep a hold on the tropical season in the Atlantic to normal or below normal activity. But as I always say it only takes one storm to make a season such as in 1992 with Andrew. Otherwise the season was relatively quiet. Also Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures along the east coast remain semi-below normal, but they have greatly warmed in the last two weeks in the Caribbean where temperatures are now slightly above last year's numbers. So for now the tropics continue to remain quiet.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2009 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 3
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 1
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 5.04inches
Yearly Precipitation- 18.44inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 3
Highest Temperature- 92degrees

Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Currituck Lighthouse
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Corolla Beach- We had a very strong thunderstorm the one evening which also hit north of here near Virginia Beach with a funnel cloud and waterspout. The thunderstorm hit around midnight with intense lightning and an inch of rain. But during the evening the thunderstorm could be seen approaching. Note the mammatus clouds on the underside of the anvil over our beach homes.
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Corolla Beach- We had several days of abnormally high water including Coastal Flood Warnings and Coastal Flood Advisories. Also the rip current threat was high enough they shut the beach down for a day.
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Corolla Beach
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse
Outer Banks, NC
Outer Banks, NC (Blizzard92)
Bodie Island Lighthouse
Outer Banks, NC

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 150 - 100

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

150. TheRasberryPatch
1:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2009
that is very interesting. no heatwaves. huh. most unusual. we alwaya have the HHH for a month it seems. but it hasn't been around for the last few years.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
149. Zachary Labe
1:15 AM GMT on June 29, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Thanks! I was looking at some long term guidance and the EURO model is still throwing a big trough over the region in the 10-15 day period so we shall see. Sullivanweather brought up an interesting point about the models the other day. Usually in winter you see a period of astronomical -30C forecast for the real long term but it never comes to fruitation. Well in summer usually you see a period of 850s over 20C in the long term... Well in the latest models there really are no astronomical fantasy heatwaves, very unusual.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
148. TheRasberryPatch
11:49 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
i know tell me about it Blizz. not much of summer yet, but we still have a couple more months, especially July. it is usually the hottest month for us. when i was a kid my Dad would not take vacation until the end of July when the waters of the Atlantic were warm. it was always hot, but then was back in the 60's and 70's.

Hope your vacation is fun and excellent weather. Probably when you get back the ridge will be over us and we will be in a heatwave with the Bermuda High dominating. where will i go, what shall i do haha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
147. Zachary Labe
9:50 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Now this is what I call summer, 71 and thick low clouds. Ha.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
146. Zachary Labe
7:56 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
weathergeek5- 72degrees F. It is supposed to be in the upper 80s in Rome with mostly sunshine and in Athens it is supposed to be upper 80s to 90 with sunshine.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
145. weathergeek5
6:48 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Hey blizz. Do you know what kind of weather you will be expecting in Europe this week and next? Quiz time: what temp in Fahrenheit is 22C.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
144. Zachary Labe
5:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Lol. The rain really is reaching the ground in most areas and if it does, it shouldn't be too heavy. The story probably this week will not be how much rain, but how cool the temperature is for this time of year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
143. TheRasberryPatch
4:18 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Thanks for the forecast Blizz. I appreciate it. haha just go on your vacation already. :)

Are we in for rain most of the afternoon? i was going to rotisserie a chicken on the grill, but if it will be raining i probably won't
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
142. TheDawnAwakening
2:48 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Yes I got the storm that was producing 1.75" sized hail over the ocean but it weakened before it hit us, but I got a great video that youtube is processing.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
141. Zachary Labe
2:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
lawntonlookers- Thanks! It doesn't look like I will miss any too interesting of weather. This week looks chilly and damp for summer standards here in Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
140. lawntonlookers
2:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Have a great vacation Blizz.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
139. TheDawnAwakening
2:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
There was lightning with them earlier according to WU lightning experimental guidance.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
138. Zachary Labe
2:19 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- I am not sure there is too much lightning with them, dbz's are pretty weak.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
137. TheDawnAwakening
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Youtube is processing my video right now.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
136. TheDawnAwakening
2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Blizzard, thunderstorms are moving from east to west to my southeast. Biggest storms remain to my south as an upper level low rotates to my south.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
135. Zachary Labe
2:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Looks like the beautiful morning is coming to an end with a cloud bank moving east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
134. TheDawnAwakening
1:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
I have a great video I will posting soon of the storms last night. Its a little long before you see any lightning. However if you want to see great cloud formations then this is your video. You know when you watch a Jerry Bruckheimer film, with the lightning near the tree, this video I took reminds me of that.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
133. upweatherdog
2:31 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Here in the U.P, trout season lasts all summer. It usually stays cool enough for strong trout activity during the summer.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
132. TheRasberryPatch
12:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
uppy - trout sounds really good. also, it sounds like you have been hotter than us here in PA.

TDw - did you get any of those storms?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
131. Zachary Labe
9:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- They issued a MCD for inland areas which I thought was necessary.

upweatherdog- Great! Trout season is well over here, too warm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
130. upweatherdog
7:35 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Well, it's raining heavy here. Finally! The two weeks of heat and humidity have ended! A week of rain and clouds is in store for the U.P.

My dad and I went fishing at a nearby creek today. The fish didn't start biting until it started to rain. My dad and I found a old bridge over a deep pool in the stream. We almost caught two 8-12 inch brook trout. My dad caught 3 small trout. After the rain stopped, the fish stopped biting. I find that kinda strange.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
129. TheDawnAwakening
7:20 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Some hailstorms have developed over interior Southeastern MA. Blizzard, do you think the big storms to my southwest will weaken as they get further north or closer to my latitude, or will they just go out to sea with the same strength or stronger? Also do you think we are worthy of a MCD?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
128. TheDawnAwakening
6:59 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Blizzard, there are storms developing right near Nantucket, MA. I agree with you about that. The storms will probably end up further east.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
127. Zachary Labe
6:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- They will probably stay out over the ocean. Althought it will be close. The NMM WRF HIRES simulated radar shows them clipping your region extremly close but slightly to your east. Your best bet is convection to develop almost right on top of you and slightly west where the ocean breeze is.

TheRasberryPatch- No, I did not think it was needed.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
126. TheRasberryPatch
6:48 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
i am at 1007.0 but my barometer has a bit of a deviation the past few months. ever since i changed over to a new computer the barometer has been a bit low. 1.5mb error with a standard deviation of 0.03mb. i think i will adjust to your setting Blizz
have you ever updated your firmware version with Davis? i have never done it for my VP. just curious if you thought it was needed
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
125. TheDawnAwakening
6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Blizzard, what do you think of the storms to my south over the ocean?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
124. Zachary Labe
6:33 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Ah good spot your right. 28inches is very low for pressure. By the way I switched my pressure readings to millibars because most things meteorologically speaking with high and lows are measured in millibars. It is a closer measure for example when lows travel overhead. Currently it is 1007.8mb here for the current pressure.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
123. TheRasberryPatch
6:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
that is very hot Shock. that is time to be at the beach or pool.
i am a bit confused though. the barometer seems a bit low for hot and clear. you might want to check your pressure gauge. usually when you are in the 28's it is a major storm. i could be wrong
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
122. TheDawnAwakening
6:07 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Cumulus clouds coming from the south. It looks like that new surface low pressure center to our west is pivoting everything from the south to the north now. Maybe this will kick those storms to my south up here. Maybe it won't.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
121. Zachary Labe
5:51 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Sh0cK- Ugh too hot for me. Where is this?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
120. Sh0cK
5:33 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Summer is in full fury here:

103.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 40%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 28.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 118 °F
Member Since: November 3, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 182
119. TheRasberryPatch
5:32 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
that is amazing, Blizz. probably makes people more grumpy
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
118. Zachary Labe
5:12 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
It seems that the big storms to my south will still the thunder. Dew point is 66 and temps are in the low 70s. SSW winds. Surface analysis for WU homepage says we have a surface low to my southwest.

You still have some -200 CIN there this morning with CAPE below 250 j/kg, but it is slightly early so you can get rid of that this afternoon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
117. TheDawnAwakening
5:09 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
It seems that the big storms to my south will still the thunder. Dew point is 66 and temps are in the low 70s. SSW winds. Surface analysis for WU homepage says we have a surface low to my southwest.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
116. Zachary Labe
5:04 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Can't say for sure. Nothing will be too strong today as the dynamics aloft and boundary layer will be meager at best.

TheRasberryPatch- Thanks, I hope so too. Did you check the extended term... showers, showers, showers. According to KMDT we have only had 1 clear day, 17 partly cloudy days, and 8 cloudy days this June.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
115. TheRasberryPatch
4:13 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
sounds like a fun vacation Blizz. i hope you get to taste some delicious food and wine.

why can't we have a day of full sun? the clouds are invading a bit.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
114. TheDawnAwakening
4:10 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
***Well folks you fearless leader, ha, will be out for ten days starting Monday due to another vacation for travels to Europe in Italy and Greece. I will be back after the first week in July. I will post another observation blog and this is in particular extremely important if all of you could try to daily report your observations as I will have little contact with what is going on weatherwise in the United States. It would be a big help, thanks. I will be here until Monday. After the trip I am here on out.

TheDawnAwakening- Whatever occurs today will not be widespread and more on the pea variety. Chances are not high and activity will be scattered, but this is your best chance in the last few weeks so that is a plus.


I think the heavy storms to the south will take a lot of energy out of our area. Do you think these storms can make it here or is there too much of a westerly component to their track?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
113. Zachary Labe
3:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
***Well folks your fearless leader, ha, will be out for ten days starting Monday due to another vacation for travels to Europe in Italy and Greece. I will be back after the first week in July. I will post another observation blog and this is in particular extremely important if all of you could try to daily report your observations as I will have little contact with what is going on weatherwise in the United States. It would be a big help, thanks. I will be here until Monday. After the trip I am here on out.

TheDawnAwakening- Whatever occurs today will not be widespread and more on the pea variety. Chances are not high and activity will be scattered, but this is your best chance in the last few weeks so that is a plus.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
112. TheDawnAwakening
3:28 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Thoughts on the possible hail storms Blizzard?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
111. TheDawnAwakening
2:14 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
TheDawnAwakening- Well the SPC did not add any probabilities for up there for today.


I know Blizzard. 18z GFs may be right with -4 to -6 LI values and CAPE greater than 1000j/kg. Why? Dew point is rising this morning along with the temperature this morning. Also the low is still to my northwest and the NAM and GFS are still too far east with the low, which would lend me to believe that the are also too fast in bringing in the easterly winds. I don't see why the 18z GFS can't be right. We have had almost full sunshine this morning, only mitigating factor is the fog and winds off the ocean.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
110. TheRasberryPatch
1:35 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
looks like a bright sunny day today. it is a very nice morning to just sit outside and have a cup of coffee listening to the birds.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
109. Zachary Labe
1:30 PM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Well the SPC did not add any probabilities for up there for today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
108. TheDawnAwakening
2:26 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
Blizzard. Tomorrow could be a repeat of last year's June 24th, 2008 severe hail event. Almost identical setup with the low forecast to be right on top of us tomorrow. LI indicate moderate instability with values of -4 to -6. With the cutoff low pressure center forecasted to be right in our vicinity there is a trigger with cyclonic flow giving lift to the atmosphere. Also the GFS forecasts MUCAPE values of 1000j/kg as there is a finger of moderate instability with the surface based CAPE lacking some. It will be interesting to see if the SPC will go with a 15/5 Hail/Wind slight risk tomorrow for New England. NAM is not on our side though with CAPE values further west.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
107. Zachary Labe
2:16 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
it appeared the thunderstorms fizzled out once it got in to the area. i didn't even get enough to measure. just to wet the grass.

it looks like from the WU forecast the trough is coming into the area next week.

Yep that was with the cutoff low I mentioned a few days ago for next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
106. TheRasberryPatch
1:58 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
it appeared the thunderstorms fizzled out once it got in to the area. i didn't even get enough to measure. just to wet the grass.

it looks like from the WU forecast the trough is coming into the area next week.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
105. Zachary Labe
1:46 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- I am glad you got yourself a thunderstorm at least.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
104. TheDawnAwakening
1:26 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
A lot of lightning tonight. More on the way. Also tomorrow looks very interesting on the 18z GFS. Lets see what the 00z says, then we could have a slight risk tomorrow for Hail.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
103. Zachary Labe
1:14 AM GMT on June 27, 2009
Ugh, a measly .02inches of rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
102. Zachary Labe
6:49 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-033-037-041-043-045-055-057-
061-067-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-
133-270200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0517.090626T1845Z-090627T0200Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR BUCKS CARBON
CENTRE CHESTER CLEARFIELD
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY
PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
UNION YORK
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
101. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on June 26, 2009

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN PA...SERN NY...WRN CT...NJ...DE...NRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261819Z - 261915Z

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN PA TO THE SOUTH OF WW 516 WITHIN REGION
OF ENHANCED DIABATIC HEATING. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
SOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVING SEWD
TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTH CENTRAL/NERN PA WITH LEADING CELL MOVING INTO
EXTREME SERN NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS
SERN NY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD WRN CT WHERE LIMITED
CLOUDS/STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING. FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE SRN EDGE
OF STRONGER WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN PA
INTO NJ.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
100. shoreacres
6:08 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
I have captured summer and am holding it for ransom. Send about 8" of rain in eight 1" installments, and summer's yours.

Currents:

temp 96
heat index 108

I could quote rainfall deficits and heat exhaustion stats, but I'm heading back into the sauna and I'd hate to be late ;-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288

Viewing: 150 - 100

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations