Middle Atlantic Monday/Tuesday Severe Weather...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather of June 8-9"
A two day period of scattered thunderstorms will be occuring generally across the entire state of Pennsylvania as a warm front lifts northward followed by a cold front passage. The current weather pattern we are in has been anything but typical as these Pacific Airmasses in the form of troughs continue to track over much of the nation resulting in calm weather. But it does appear finally that the pattern is beginning to slowly transition to a more summer like regime. Bubbles of high pressure are beginning to form across the southeast and the Bermuda high will slowly move into a more summer like position. I do forsee warmer temperatures on the horizon, though with a continue unsettled pattern through at least mid month. El Nino is really beginning to crank out and if you haven't heard, NOAA has issued a El Nino Watch. This current blog will feature the potential for severe weather for the next two days across the Middle Atlantic. While severe weather shouldn't be overly widespread, there certainly will be some stronger storms. Interestingly enough we still haven't seen a widespread severe weather outbreak at all here in Pennsylvania in fact most thunderstorm events have been pretty quiet. Once we get into the simple summer weather pattern with the southeast ridge and occasional simple cold front passages with southwest flows, then we will be able to get more widespread severe weather with squall lines and such. It just seems like our weather is just so quiet lately here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley without any real major storm since December of 2007 with the severe ice storm. Our weather since then has been quiet. Now lets look at the date I joined Wunderground, December 14 2007. I guess I must be jinxing us, hahahaha. Anyways I suppose it is a good thing that our weather has been quiet and not causing problems across the region. But for us weather watchers, it sure has been quiet. Thanks to all still leaving comments and hanging around and for those who occasionally check-in throughout the summer until their season hits, winter. Stay tuned for updates from the NWS on the next two days with the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms.

"Current Weather Setup"
A frontal boundary located around the Mason-Dixon line will slowly sink southward during the day Sunday through Monday morning finally beginning to stall from northern New Jersey across northern Pennsylvania. The warm front will lift northward putting the southern half of Pennsylvania in the warm sector towards Monday afternoon. Some initial cloud debris will be across the region as a few morning showers are possible with some added lift from previous MCS complexes of the Midwest. But under strong June sunshine, the clouds should quickly burn out across southern Pennsylvania. Southwesterly winds will draw up warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints. Temperatures will rise to near 85degrees for many areas south of I-80 as temperatures in the 850s rise to near 13C slightly warm enough to CAP off the environment for the first half of the day. As instability begins to develop CAPE values will soar up to near 2000 j/kg with lifted indices near -2. The lacking mechanism will be organized bulk shear aloft and the lacking contrast between cold air aloft and the warm boundary layer. But with the warm front focusing the development of thunderstorms and some added 300 layer helicity, pulse thunderstorms will develop across Pennsylvania Monday afternoon. PWATs will rise to near 2inches in southeastern Pennsylvania thanks to a Chesapeake influence. Highest winds aloft remain displaced to the north of the best instability therefore resulting in winds aloft near 35knots. Freezing levels also will be relatively high aloft near 11000ft. But with moderate thermodynamics a few thunderstorms will be severe south of I-80. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with semi favorable horographs.

Tuesday poses the question for a more widespread severe weather event than pulse thunderstorms that occur Monday. The final push of the cold front will approach the region from the Midwest. The main concern for Tuesday and an inhibiting factor will be cloud cover. Strong thunderstorm complexes near Chicago will have formed Monday night and move across the Ohio Valley. Cloud debris may overspread Pennsylvania for parts of Tuesday. But with such strong June sunshine, we should be able to break out into the sunshine for at least central and eastern Pennsylvania. Dewpoints will rise into the low 70s with highs into the mid 80s. While bulk shear is lacking intensity strong low level and mid level lapse rates will dominate for the threat of an organized thunderstorm development possibly in the form of a squall line or clusters of bow echo thunderstorms. Wind damage is the primary threat with helicity displaced to the north lacking the tornado threat. Hail is also a possibility with 10000ft freezing levels. Mesoscale models are developing extremely high thermodynamics with CAPE values near 4000j/kg! But this seems a bit overdone with possible cloud cover, highs in low 80s, and dewpoints only in low 70s. Also some models show Lifted indices near (-4)-(-6), again seems overdone. Still though potential is there for a semi organized severe weather event as the front will be passing through during a favorable time with the full heating of the day.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
SPC AC 091210

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...EAST...
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM
DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.
GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND
DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
A few model errors appear to be developing in the short term with some error in the placement of how far north the warm front makes it and how strong of surface instability develops Tuesday. The GFS appears to be having some convective feedback issues especially reguarding Tuesday as it develops CAPE values near 4500 j/kg. The HIRES WRF and NMM also seem to be having a few convective feedback problems in result of some possible MCSs developing across the Midwest and tracking east over the Ohio Valley. This event being two days seems to call for a blend of models especially in reguards to frontal placement.

"3z SREF Model Forecast Lifted Index Values"

(Tuesday afternoon)

"0z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Tuesday afternoon)

"0z GFS Model Forecast Bulk Shear 0-6km"

(Tuesday afternoon)

"0z GFS Model Forecast EHI Values"

(Tusday afternoon)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
For Monday I am expecting the best chance of severe weather to be over the southern half of the state closer to the higher instability with wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes all being possible threats. The activity will be organized into generally pulse thunderstorms some of which will develop over the high terrain and move eastward into the valley regions with higher instability. Tuesday looks to be a bit more active for severe weather if the debris clouds do not inhibit storm activity. Stay tuned for a forecast map and short paragraph in this section Monday evening for the Tuesday forecast.

Below is my Tuesday severe weather map. I am calling for some significant thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of the state as low level moisture from nocturnal convection combined with sunshine breaking out later in the day forming high instability. Some of the models such as the NAM and GFS really break us into the moderate to high index of CAPE. What is lacking is the lack of low level jet feature causing stronger winds aloft. But with a high SWEAT index and some 200 helicity, a few rotating supercells cannot be ruled out. I am thinking about changing the format of my severe weather forecast maps. My moderate area is not the same as a SPC moderate guidelines. So I think I may change it to probability with putting max probabilities despite how widespread the severe weather is. I will explain it more once it is developed. In any case today's thunderstorms look to be organized into multi clusters and not a large squall line.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"

(Tuesday)


(Monday)
*Note... It has been a while since my severe weather maps have been posted. For review my probability areas are slightly different than the Storm Prediction Center due to the fact of the somewhat rarity of severe weather in Pennsylvania in comparison to other parts of the country. Therefore my moderate risk for Pennsylvania would be similar to a high end SPC slight risk. My 25-50% chance of thunderstorms include 0% chance of severe weather. My 75% chance of thunderstorms include 5% severe weather. My slight risk of severe weather includes 15% severe weather. My moderate risk includes 30% severe weather and my high risk includes 45% chance of severe weather. And after the storm I will plot the storm reports and forecast warnings over my forecast regions for a verification map.

"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Overall this event does not seem to be anything of too much significane on a widespread level as both thermodynamics and kinematics are displaced from one another, but still some severe weather will likely occur. Here is the outlook for the rest of the month. Well I guess there has to be a best and worst with everything and my recent May forecast was my worst monthly forecast to date. My call for warmer and drier temperatures definitely did not pan out as temperatures were slightly below normal to normal and precipitation was well above normal. This pattern is very strange we are in with a very solid negative NAO and strong positive PNA. MJO also has been pretty steady in the higher phases such as 6,7,8. These phases are quite favorable for east coast troughing. Interesting to note is the currently 3.4 Nino status. SSTs are rapidly warming as the Hadley cell departs the region and immediant term wise SSTs rose enough to be classified as a weak El Nino. But the CPC waits for a certain length of time for classification. We also have a favorable Greenland blocking creating these troughs in the east. Looking at the long term model runs they continue this winter like jet stream pattern with troughing over the east and a strong ridge in the west. This also will combine with these consistent stalled fronts. Rainfall looks plentiful this month with some GFS model runs indicating 4-6inches of rainfall in the first half of the month with some areas 6-8inches of QPF. This pattern looks to continue for most of the month as the pattern seems very consistant. The remnants of the La Nina continue to dominate the flow and this pattern appears to do so. My Summer Outlook so far is not looking great unless we can see some signs of the troughing backing off in the east and have the Bermuda high and Southeast ridge build in. For now the pattern will be cooler than normal temperatures with periods of heavy rain. Severe weather will be common for those south of the occluded fronts. Here are more details...

Temperature- I am calling for normal to slightly below normal temperatures as a trough dominates the weather here in the east and cloud cover keeps a hold on highs even in warm sectors. Temperatures anomalies should be in the (-1.2)-(-.2) sector. The best chance of warmer temperatures will be extreme southern Pennsylvania closer to the warm sector in these stalled frontal situations.

Precipitation- I am calling for well above normal precipitation as we continue to be right in the perfect region for these stalled fronts. Rainfall will be common with many overrunning situations. Also MCS complexes will be common overnight as severe weather in the southern Great Lakes creates weak complexes of nocturnal thunderstorms. The month will be wettest in the first two thirds.

"Storm Reports"


Below is my verification map for Monday. The forecast panned out really well as isolated severe pulse thunderstorms did form across the region only with a few reports of severe weather, but several warnings.


(Monday)


(Tuesday)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2009 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 3
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 14

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 1
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 2.95inches
Yearly Precipitation- 16.35inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 2
Highest Temperature- 92degrees

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168. Zachary Labe
12:01 PM GMT on June 12, 2009
SBKaren- My plants are in a lull too. This cool weather is sort of stunting their growth. Warm weather crops really enjoy hot weather so they is likely the inhibiting factor currently.

TheRasberryPatch- That severe squall line over the Tennessee Valley stole much of the energy from the system. .31inches of rain from that thunderstorm around midnight last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
167. TheRasberryPatch
11:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
whatever happened to the flood watch. for the last 24 hours i received 0.14" of rain and 0.11" came from yesterday morning. kind of a bust, which i am not complaining. i think we have gotten plenty of rain the last 10 days.

sounds like the garden will take off UPPY. be careful for the groundhogs and your melons.

SB - give it time. sometimes plants get in a lull. i can remember having green tomatoes for almost a month and not one turning red. just one of those things with backyard gardeners.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
166. SBKaren
3:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
Why isn't my corn getting any bigger? I planted more lettuce in my earth box and it's doing OK so far! Still eating strawberries and sugar snap peas and my second generation green beans seem to be doing a bit better. Zucchini started OK and now at a stand still. I must be doing something wrong.

I did cut back on my watering of my tomato plant and I have more tomatoes now, but still not nearly as many as I would have expected for such a healthy looking plant.

I need to get updated pics...maybe this weekend.
Member Since: February 21, 2005 Posts: 195 Comments: 14560
165. Zachary Labe
3:25 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
Loud thunder here with storm approaching. I should have kept a tally for the amount of thunderstorms that hit me this week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
164. TheDawnAwakening
3:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
Sunday looks to be another widespread severe weather event, however this time confined to some small hail and winds in Northern New England.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
163. upweatherdog
2:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
Well, I planted 16 watermelon plants and two cantalope plants this evening. I did things a little differently this year, so hopefully the melons grow a lot better than last year.

We also got 4 tomato plants planted in the Earth Boxes.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
162. Zachary Labe
2:19 AM GMT on June 12, 2009

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...SERN PA..SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120201Z - 120300Z

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME INVOF
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC.

RELATIVELY MARGINAL AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD
MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

01Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
LBE TO BETWEEN DOV AND SBY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE MD/PA/DE BORDER REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. MODIFIED
00Z IAD RAOB SUGGESTS AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THE FRONT
/MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG/ AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AROUND 40 KT/.
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING HAS
COMMENCED...JUXTAPOSITION OF KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ATTENDANT THREAT OF
MAINLY SEVERE HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
NEAR-TERM WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EVOLVING ALONG THE FRONT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
161. weathergeek5
1:50 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
Just started raining like crazy here. There have been a few rumbles of thunder.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
160. TheRasberryPatch
1:50 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
same here Blizz high of 69F. sounds lovely. i can't wait. hopefully, it will be warm and less humid also.

looks like another batch has sailed on by without any rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
159. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It is head out, thank goodness. The weekend looks lovely and even now Friday afternoon the sun may come out. The high here today was a toasty 69degrees. Beautiful June weather.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
158. TheRasberryPatch
1:14 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
so will this front finally push south and out to sea or will we be dealing with it in another couple of days?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
157. Zachary Labe
12:55 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Only had .03inches from it. Nice line of convection developing and moving across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
156. TheRasberryPatch
12:50 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
i didn't get any of that bow that moved through the state this afternoon
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
155. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on June 12, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- The energy from the dissipating MCV will result in our convection over the Susquehanna Valley tonight. Line of thunderstorms forming moving into Perry County and Cumberland County already this evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
154. TheRasberryPatch
9:11 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Thanks UPPY and TDA. i wasn't there. it was an area just to the east of Baltimore city. my brother in law works for the fire dept of the county there sent me those pictures.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
153. TheDawnAwakening
9:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheRaspberryPatch - Great Pictures of that storm. What was it like?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
152. upweatherdog
9:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Awsome pics Patch!

In the 2nd pic you can clearly see the wall cloud and associated mesocyclone along with the shelf cloud on the right associated with the downdraft. Very cool!
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
151. TheRasberryPatch
8:54 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
hey blizz - is that line moving into west virginia heading our way as well?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
150. Zachary Labe
8:51 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Great pictures! Classic supercellular formations.

upweatherdog- I have a patch in my backyard which I have no clue how they got there. I guess from a bird.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
149. upweatherdog
8:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Just walking through the backyard today I noticed a area about 200 sq.ft is filled with wild strawberries in bloom. Wild strawberries are considered a delicacy up here in late June and early July.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
148. TheRasberryPatch
8:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Blizz - here are a few pictures of that tornado from tuesday to hit Dundalk





Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
147. Zachary Labe
7:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
First flash flood warning of the day is out. Simulated radars still generate a lot of moisture later today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
146. TheRasberryPatch
5:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
well hopefully it will be gone by the weekend for a great weather weekend
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
145. Zachary Labe
5:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It won't push out of the region until late tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
144. TheRasberryPatch
4:51 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
that was a quick 0.11" of rain for that passing shower.

so does this front push north and out of the region for good?

i just did a quick check of my rain gauge. of course there is bird poop inside. not enough to stop the rain from getting to the gauge itself, but enough to slow the process down.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
143. Zachary Labe
3:57 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- PWATs are near 2inches by this afternoon. Some areas may see up to 3inches of rain today.

TheDawnAwakening- It may be some elevated thunder with heavy rain, but that should be all.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL PA SWD INTO MD...ERN WV AND CNTRL/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111551Z - 111715Z

STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON: 1)
ALONG LEE TROUGH AND/OR 2) IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT LARGE-SCALE
BOWING SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LARGE-SCALE BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...EXTENDING ALONG A
HLG-EKN-15 W ROA LINE AS OF 1535Z HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DIURNAL TRENDS AND MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THROUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR...THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF
CNTRL/SRN VA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COINCIDES
WITH THE STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING...SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG. FURTHER N...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOWER TO WARM DUE TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOISTENING AND HEATING
OF AIR MASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON NWD INTO SRN PA.

VWP DATA IN THE WAKE OF BOWING SYSTEM AT JKL/RLX INDICATE RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW /40-50 KT/ IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH
APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. ABOVE-MENTIONED KINEMATIC PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
142. TheDawnAwakening
3:52 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Blizzard, what about tomorrow? Front comes through and the 12z NAM shows a good line of storms coming through.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
141. TheRasberryPatch
3:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
that tiniest dot on the radar just southeast of you Blizz is giving me almost a tenth of an inch so far.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
140. Zachary Labe
3:36 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Looking at the GFS I think it would hint more towards Maine for a few hailers. I just do not see too much of an organized trigger.

PalmyraPunishment- I do not think today looks too confident for severe weather. The easterly wind is pushing the marine layer far inland. Possible flooding rains in some areas, yes. Severe weather, not as likely.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
139. PalmyraPunishment
3:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Looks like this may be the day everybody gets their severe thunderstorm. I still have yet to experience anything even remotely close to rough aside from a few cracks of thunder and some bright lightning. I'm ready...

so hopefully it happens. in the meantime, i'll be hiding under my desk. the swine flu pandemic declaration has left me with nothing left to do!!!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
138. TheDawnAwakening
2:09 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Blizzard, we just had a cluster of storm embedded within heavy rain showers. Saw some flashes of lightning, but I was trying to record them, but they happened when I decided not to record any more. Pocket of instability led to these storms. They came real fast from 830am to now which is just after 10am. Heavy rains and some lightning. Anyways did you see what the 00z and 6z GFS has for severe weather parameters here for Southern New England tomorrow, tremendous CAPE values near 3000 j/kg on the 00z GFS run, but the NWS seems to follow the EURO and NAM which show no real severe threats except for Sunday with the NAM. Thoughts?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
137. Zachary Labe
1:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
.97inches of rain was final total here for yesterday. Flash flood watch out today for Susquehanna Valley. Cloud cover is widespread so that should preclude major severe weather so no new blog today. I will cover the event here in comments. Thunderstorms could be training and put down a lot of rain in some areas later today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
136. TheDawnAwakening
12:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Man the 00z and 06z GFS is being very robust for Friday for central MA, CT and RI in terms of severe weather parameters while the NAM is not hinting at anything. I just heard thunder for the second time in 30 seconds or so.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
135. TheRasberryPatch
12:35 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
i bet it did lawnton. i bet lake redman got filled.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
134. lawntonlookers
12:23 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
That storm in York County in Codorus did a lot of flood damage.

Link
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133. TheDawnAwakening
11:31 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Blizz, what do you think my chances are for a thunderstorm tomorrow?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
132. TheRasberryPatch
11:22 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
hopefully, it will work out for you UPPY. its nice to have fresh fruits and vegetables from the area.

0.38" from that batch last night into the earl morning. for me it came down light enough to soak in

do i see on the weather forecast days of sun after friday? lets hope so
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
131. upweatherdog
3:52 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
We had another nice sunset this evening after a passing rain shower.

By the way, nice maps Blizz!

From what I hear, many locals around here who grow gardens say their gardens are a month behind in terms of growth. If Fall-like temps arrive quick, the fruit and vegatable harvest will be meager. However, with a El Nino this Fall, the growing season should be extended another month :)
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
130. shipweather
3:47 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
strong cell passing near Kutztown now. heaviest just to the north. raining steady now
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
129. Zachary Labe
1:59 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
Flash flood warning now out for here. What a couple of days!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
128. TheRasberryPatch
1:30 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
getting some rain here as well. not terribly hard yet, but it looks like the blob has just gotten in my area.

it appears from the radar the storm is intensifying just to my west. i see some purples in with the reds
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
127. Zachary Labe
1:03 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- After this final storm moving through my area, activity should quiet for the night. Tomorrow afternoon will be more widespread severe thunderstorms than today. Currently thundering and lightly raining here so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
126. TheRasberryPatch
12:53 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
thanks for the information, Blizz. sounds like a very intense thunderstorm. it seems like for the Baltimore area low F tornados are the usual if they get any. probably has to do with such a heavy concentration of rowhouses.

i told you the lightning was bad there. Dundalk is just east of the city close to the bay.

looks like the rain doesn't want to come into my area. are we done for the evening.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
125. Zachary Labe
12:21 AM GMT on June 11, 2009
*Another possible storm coming my way on radar. Also my verification map for Tuesday's severe weather is posted above.

TheRasberryPatch- Here is the tornado report from yesterday. Other than this there was fierce lightning which cut all communications in Arlinton. Golf ball sized hail occured southwest of Manchester, MD. Lots of flash flooding too with water rescues...

Today the Baltimore/Washington weather forecast office of the
National Weather Service conducted a survey of storm damage that
occurred on June 9th in Dundalk Maryland in Baltimore County. The
survey was conducted in concert with Baltimore County office of
Homeland security and emergency management.

The following was determined through a damage survey... examination
of radar and eyewitness interviews.

Based on all evidence the damage was consistent with a brief small
tornado rated EF-0 on the Enhanced Fujita scale... with peak winds
estimated at 70 mph. Path length was one mile... with a Max width of
150 yards. Initial time of touchdown was 5:21 PM Edt... and was on
the ground for about one minute.

No injuries were reported.

No damage cost estimate was available at this time.

Evidence of the tornado was first noted along the northern edge of
Oak Lawn cemetery and the adjoining Eastpoint neighborhood north of
the cemetery... due mainly to trees snapped or uprooted. More damage
was noted along bread and cheese creek from Carson Avenue east to
Plainfield Rd. The tornado produced structure damage to 3 townhouses
on Berkshire Lane... where portions of their flat tar-pitch roof were
removed... a tree fell on another townhouse on Berkshire... and a
nearby car dealership lost a portion of its canvass roof covering.
The most concentrated damage was observed from the Berkshire Rd
area... across Merritt Blvd to Plainfield Rd... where multiple trees
were snapped and/or up-rooted... with one tree falling on a house.
The tornado appeared to weaken quickly as it moved further east
through the Gray Manor neighborhood... and no damage was observed
east of woodwell Rd.

Eyewitness accounts and examination of radar data suggest the
tornado began as a gustnado... a spin-up circulation that forms on
the leading edge of a thunderstorm gust front. It quickly
transformed into a more traditional tornado... developing as a new
thunderstorm updraft overran the original gust front and became
collocated over the original gustnado. Eyewitnesses reported seeing
debris... tree limbs and roofing material... being lifted upwards into
the tornado circulation. One eyewitness on Plainfield Rd described
the sound of a freight train as the tornado passed over his house.

The Weather Service extends thanks to Baltimore County emergency
management officials... and to some members of local media who
assisted in pointing out locations of damage in Dundalk
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
124. TheRasberryPatch
11:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
it looks like northern maryland is getting hit with lots of rain again.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
123. TheDawnAwakening
10:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
I don't think our prospects for storms tomorrow here on Cape Cod, MA are good at all given that the ocean temps are at what they are at, around 55 to 59F. Fog destroys storms and so does the marine influence.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3898
122. TheRasberryPatch
8:50 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
sure thing Blizz.

so far i haven't had mushrooms this year. lots of grass cutting. as for insects - i encountered a pesky fly out in my garden. one thing i hate about gardens is the bugs sometimes won't leave you alone. a few years ago they were so bad i bought one of those bug wrist bands. it worked fairly well

i noticed on the radar there are a lot of pop ups that are staying still. just sitting in one place. that can be good
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
121. Zachary Labe
8:47 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
shipweather- It made up for some poor thunderstorms seasons the last two years.

TheRasberryPatch- All this rain is making the insects just horrible along with an increase in mushrooms, ugh! That storm in York County supposedly has produced damage from winds and hail. Remind me this evening to get you some information I read yesterday about the storms in Maryland. I will be out for the evening until 8/9 or so.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
120. TheRasberryPatch
8:43 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
very nice storm Blizz. so far i am 1 for 3 the last 2 days for storms. i don't mind though. i have been fighting with the potato beetles the last two days using sevin on them. this is the time when i have to dust my potato plants every 10 days. i hate messing with sevin, but it has to be done or my plants would be destroyed

that one storm is sitting around 83 just above the MD/PA border
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
119. shipweather
8:34 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
thats a very nice thunderstorm! awesome stuff.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
118. Zachary Labe
8:31 PM GMT on June 10, 2009
New blog likely out tomorrow morning with severe threat and heavy rain threat details for tomorrow. Latest SPC outlook for tomorrow...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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