Heavy snow in PA update!!!

By: Zachary Labe , 8:31 PM GMT on January 14, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

Thoughts on January 17-18th storm...
COMING SOON!!!

Update as of 330pm...
Well snow is across most of the state with the extreme western areas not seeing to much snow. Heavy bands are still moving north from Maryland with 1-2inch rates coming. Here in harrisburg we have about 2inches of snow with heavy snow falling. Also it is 30degrees and still slightly falling. Roads are covered. Visibility is low. Currently the heaviest snow in PA appears to be around the State College area. Well it looks like my map below needs to have some higher snow totals. I am surprised with all this snow. I think the highest totals will be from Newport to Selingsgrove to Pottsville to Scranton in Pennsylvania. They may recieve all snow with accumulations up to 5inches. It will be interesting to see what mixing occurs late today in Pennsylvania. Stay tuned for more updates. Also looks like another snowstorm is headed our way for Saturday.
More is coming later today, but for now I am going to enjoy the snow while it lasts...

Snow picture in my backyard...
New fresh fallen snow...

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...
Note the neutral to negative trend in the NAO.

This is my current rain/snow line...
Cumberland, MD to Westminster, MD to Harrisburg, PA to Williamsport, PA to Wilkes-Barre, PA to Monticello, NY
-Anyone northwest of that line should see all snow. But if you are to 30miles on either side of the line then you will be in the mix precipitation zone.

Storm impacts...
1. large area of sleet and frz rain
2. snow confined to the mountains mainly
3. more rain for already saturated coastal areas
4. variety of precipitation over many areas.
5. fast moving storm, with no artic high to north

Final Snow Map...
Snow Map- January 17-18
"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 1-3inches
Baltimore, MD- C-1inch
Washington, DC- rain
Wilmington, DE- rain
Dover, DE- rain
Cape May, NJ- rain
Trenton, NJ- Coating
New York City, NY- Coating
Poughkeepsie, NY- 1-4inches
Binghamton, NY- 1-4inches
Albany, NY- 1-3inches
Hartford, CT- 1-2inches
Concord, NH- 2-5inches
Providence, RI- C-2inches
Worcester, MA- 1-4inches
Boston, MA- C-1inch
Nantucket, MA- rain
Portland, ME- 1-3inches
Bangor, ME- 3-5inches
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis...
COMING SOON!!!

Here is the 18z GFS...


Here is the 18z GFS precipitation amounts...


Here is the 18z NAM...


After the storm...
COMING SOON!!!

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)...
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 9.25inches
Monthly Total... 2.75inches
Daily Total... 2.5inches

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 30 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

30. Zachary Labe
8:34 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
yes!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
29. MDFirefighter
8:34 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
its about time we get some love from the snow gods!!! lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
28. Stormfront
2:56 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
That's what I said, laymens terms, naturally!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
27. sullivanweather
2:26 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Blizzard,

The storm is moving into a ridge, dry air, confluent flow, upper divergence is weakening and the 500mb low is being sheared out.


What would have kept this storm going strong is that next 500mb trough currently dipping down over the Rocky's but it arrives too late. That trough phases up with this storm once it reaches northern New England giving Maine a pretty good shot of snow.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
26. Stormfront
1:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Yes I did. That's exactly what happened with the Sunday night storm. That baby whistled up the coast before it even had a chance to pull in cold air. Even fooled the NWS!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
25. Zachary Labe
1:55 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Stormfront- thanks for answering. Also did you notice the storm is about 6hrs ahead of schedule according to the models.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
24. Stormfront
1:53 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Well, I'll take a stab at your question, Blizzard. Apparently the bubble of warm air up above the Great Lakes is being drawn into the weak high pressure, at the same the low coming out of the gulf is getting cranked up, but is also pulling warm air into the system from the gulf stream. Warm air against warm air will kill the storm. I'm with you. The storm right now looks mighty impressive. Something has to be weaking the storm in it's future. ??????
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
23. Zachary Labe
1:24 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
jthal57- no I do not think it is wishful thinking. There may be a little more cold air than the models predict.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
22. jthal57
11:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
map looks good blizzard. I'm just thinking that there might be enough cold air hangin' on for a while in the northern half of Northampton County before changeover. Maybe wishful thinking!
21. MDFirefighter
10:05 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
if they're wrong again -- we might see congressional hearings haha

LOL!!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
20. PalmyraPunishment
9:51 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
no, i agree with you, blizzard. the advisories stop at the mason-dixon line, but i think that's probably because of the infrequency of winter weather in the south. Hell, half of NC is under a winter storm warning, and they're calling for less than what we would put a Winter Weather Advisory up for.

that said... I could see a prolonged period of light snow occuring anywhere from Altoona to Lebanon, maybe less so further south - not much in accumulation, but maybe enough to whiten the ground.

but then again... suppose some freak occurance where we were to get dumped on... the media already crucified Meteorology for Sunday's fiasco... if they're wrong again -- we might see congressional hearings haha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
19. Zachary Labe
9:36 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- Look at those radar returns in the southeast. Also there are winter weather advisories for Atlanta. Why is going to be so warm up here in Pennsylvania that we cannot see some snow. I think you in Carlisle may pick up an inch or two of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
18. MDFirefighter
9:31 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
im almost feeling brash enough to put up a wager on the forecasting being wrong again on tomorrow's storm and somebody ending up with a massive amount of snow or ice...

Southern PA & MD lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
17. PalmyraPunishment
9:25 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
im almost feeling brash enough to put up a wager on the forecasting being wrong again on tomorrow's storm and somebody ending up with a massive amount of snow or ice...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
16. Zachary Labe
8:57 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Now todays models seem faster, a little colder, and a little stronger with the impending coastal storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
15. Zachary Labe
10:02 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
Yes, especially the NAM model brings the warmth farthur north. The gfs brings a weaker storm for thursday. The 18z run of the GFS is soon out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
14. kdubbz
3:10 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
hmmm seems the warm surface temps will be up farther north than thought. From about albany and across the bottom of the VT/NH borders will be a mix rather than the initial snow forecast.
13. jthal57
2:12 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Here in eastern Northampton County (17 mi. south of Stroudsburg), 34 F, light snow has tapered off to flurries, no accum., but I'm only at 246' elevation. Roads are wet, forecast is for lows overnight in mid 20's.
12. Zachary Labe
11:39 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
I think we could see a powerful coastal storm during this arctic outbreak sometime in January.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
11. PalmyraPunishment
11:36 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
kdubbz, I hope Albany was right, that has Harrisburg in blue haha, however.. it's going to be too warm, and it won't cool off fast enough.

Im starting to think that February might be our month...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
10. Zachary Labe
11:28 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
TheShovler3- Thanks

kdubbz- I do not think the mix makes it into New Hampshire and Vermont. It will mix a little I think for Massachusetts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
9. TheShovler3
11:01 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
I Think your map is pretty good and my post in the other blog was incorrect. i feel that it will hug the coast more, pulling the heavy precip from Northeast pa- se NY into Mid CT and Mid MA. it will be relatively warm to start but will quickly cool as the storm winds up. So even for me near the CT,MA,NY Border sleet will show up in my accumulations, before turning rapidly cold and ending at a 15-1 ratio.... i'll let you know what i think after the 00z runs
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
8. dean2007
11:00 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
18z GFS has a very cold regime ahead for the full 384 hours it goes out too and has some very good looking storms, one on the 24th and one on the 30th, with Arctic highs to their north, so the GFS may have these in its arsenal, now its a wait and see process.
7. WidespreadPanic
10:37 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
I have about 13 inches outside of my apartment in Portland, ME. After losing most of our snowpack during the recent warm up, I'm ready for more!
6. kdubbz
10:56 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
My local weather station is saying that the mix could work its way up north to as far as albany and across vermont and new hampshire and all of mass. I dont know if the warmth will make its way up that far but I sure hope not! This is from wten in albany NY btw.
5. listenerVT
10:48 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Northern New England would LOVE to be the big winner!
We sure weren't with this storm, at least not here in Vermont.
Even Burlington got more snow than we did closer to the mountains!
I think it's Opposites Day. ;~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
4. Zachary Labe
10:14 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
18z GFS is out and rather similar to the 12z run.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
3. Zachary Labe
9:46 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Thats about what I think too. I am going to issue a outlook map for PA for the 17th-18th after the 18z model runs come in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
2. PalmyraPunishment
9:38 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Rain anywhere East and South of I-80, a mix makes its way up to the NY Border, Northern New England is again the big winner.

Pretty much my gut feeling.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
1. Zachary Labe
8:09 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Yes I am going to admit some of my snow totals were off on my final snow map. I did though see a few reports of 4inches of snow in the poconos. Overall though everyone had pretty forecasts and this is no need to blame anyone. Time to move on and get ready for the next storm.

This new blog is a look at the January 17-18 storm options.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

Viewing: 30 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
57 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations