Summer Outlook 2009

By: Zachary Labe , 1:04 AM GMT on April 17, 2009

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Summer Outlook (2009)...


(One of my pictures from the Hershey Gardens, Summer 2008)

First Thoughts...
Ah, the words of the Beatles best describe our current emotions...

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,
and I say it's all right

Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun
and I say it's all right

Little darling, the smiles returning to the faces
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun
and I say it's all right

Sun, sun, sun, here it comes...
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes...
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes...
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes...
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes...

Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,
and I say it's all right
It's all right


And so it is here, the season of warmth, sunshine, happiness, clear sailing, gardening, and so much more; SUMMER. Last summer was characterized as a cool summer with a very abnormally cool August which included less than a handful of thunderstorm days for the entire month. And yet again here we are in Spring 2009 with the same old, same old, clouds and below normal temperatures. Whether one wants to blame one particular feature such as low sunspot counts or instead go with the flow of the ever-changing weather cycle, one cannot ignore the below normal temperatures we have had for nearly the past 365 days. Even with the absence of convective activity, we did manage a severe weather outbreak with a tornado in Lancaster County. So in this blog will feature all of your important questions answered...hopefully, hahaha. My thesis for this summer appears to be a relatively normal summer temperature wise with normal to below normal precipitation, nothing too extraordinary.

Revisiting typical summer time weather threats...
Well just a quick review on some of the dangers of weather that people face in the summer. The three main ones are heat, severe weather, and hurricanes. Now here in Pennsylvania we really do not see any direct hits from hurricanes, just the remnants. But severe weather and heat waves can be big threats here in Pennsylvania. First about heat... When high temperatures combined with high humidity dangerous heat indexes can be reached. In the winter it is wind chill and in the summer it is heat index. The heat index is not the actual temperature but it what an animal and human feel on the skin. When the heat index reaches certain standards then advisories may be posted. Below are the thresholds for the advisories.

(Courtesy of NOAA)
Below are the official definitions from NOAA of common advisories found when severe weather strikes in the summer time...
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM or TORNADO WATCH Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes are possible, but the exact time and location of storm development is still uncertain. A watch means be prepared for storms.
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING A severe thunderstorm is imminent or occurring; it is either detected by weather radar or reported by storm spotters. A severe thunderstorm is one that produces winds 58 mph or stronger and/or hail 3/4 inch in diameter or larger. A warning means to take shelter.
-TORNADO WARNING A tornado is imminent or occurring; it is either detected by weather radar or reported by storm spotters. A warning means to take shelter.
-FLOOD WATCH Conditions are favorable for flash flooding. A watch means to get prepared for possible flooding.
-FLASH FLOOD WARNING Life-threatening flooding is imminent or occurring; it is either detected by weather radar, indicated by stream gauges, or reported by storm spotters. A flash flood is a flood that occurs very quickly; it is caused by heavy rainfall over a short period of time or from a dam break. A warning means to leave low-lying or flood prone areas.

Discussion for outlook...
As mentioned earlier this is a lack of a key player this summer as for making temperature and precipitation trends. We are coming off of what was a very intense, and somewhat unexpected second year in a row strong La Nina. La Nina 3.4 SSTs dropped down to an anomaly of -1degrees. After that January with the height we hit a bit of warmer surrounding the cool SSTs, but the Hadley cell transitioned us a bit towards cooler anomalies in March. But recently dramatic warming is evident in the equatorial central Pacific.

Fig. 1.1- Courtesy of NOAA; This shows the anomalies for the Nina 3.4 region. Note the evident warming and nearly cancellation of the cooler SSTs

But the affects on North America are not as quick to transition as they are on water temperatures. We still will see through the rest of the Spring a generally La Nina type Spring setup which favors cooler conditions in the east with averages near (-1)-(-3) For example current average for April for Harrisburg International Airport is a bit below -1. Looking at current computer model forecasts it appears we are transitioning into a weak El Nino status. Now we can't say the accuracy of these computer generated forecasts have been accurate especially after the failure this Winter for the La Nina, but they have been pretty steady in their prediction for Nino.

Fig. 2.1- Courtesy of NOAA; This shows the CFS model and ensemble forecasts for the ENSO status for the coming months.

My general thoughts are that we will have a pretty active jet stream with a deep trough across the West Coast. This will put the Pacific Northwest in a pretty wet pattern with storms transitioning into the Midwest. A heat ridge will form there with very warm temperatures at times and potential very large severe weather outbreaks courtesy of the clashing air masses. Then a trough will be located over the Canadian Maritimes slightly touching northern and central New England. I will say that it is interesting to note the CFS climate forecast model does predict a bit towards the opposite of my prediction instead putting a ridge in the west with a trough in the Midwest and a ridge in the east. There just has been this constant negative PDO and that just continues to favor troughing over the west as has been the pattern for quite a while. Also something of note is the well below normal sea surface temperatures off the East Coast as they are quite unusually cold for this time of year. This may help inhibit tropical impacts on the east coast once again preventing widespread rainfall. Looking at soil moisture at groundwater, they are below normal for much of the Middle Atlantic. This tends to have an impact on short term and even long term temperatures by the dry ground allowing the atmosphere to be dry and hot with limited cloud cover development thanks to a weakening of the condensation in the water cycle. While currently with the recent rain, the ground is moist, but it is being quickly taken in by the growing vegetation and it is not really helping any water table levels. As far as drought is concerned this summer, I was jumping on the bandwagon in the past weeks, but I am leaning away from something significant. The location most likely to receive the driest conditions will be in the southern border counties of York, Adams, Lancaster, Chester and also the far eastern counties of Northampton and Lehigh Counties. So an interesting forecast is in store this summer and quite a difficult one at that. I think my point of error leans toward my precipitation, but overall I remain confident. This summer lacks anything pointing in anything extreme for heat and or precipitation. Again it looks pretty typical although tropical activity should be quite lacking.


My forecasts for 2009 Summer...
Temperature- Temperature forecasts are pretty dramatically different from last year. It does not appear that cooler air temperatures are likely this year for most any locales at least here in Pennsylvania. We are on the verge of entering a weak El Nino status likely by late Summer. This will generally produce neutral conditions along the equatorial Pacific for most of the summer. But we are coming off a moderate to some would consider a strong La Nina status back in the winter season. This will leave residual effects of the La Nina, but not too the point of last years dramatic effects. Typically Nina status produces cooler anomalies for much of the Northeast. But with weakening effects and a jet stream of a strong ridge in the Midwest and a weak trough in the New England region, this will leave the cooler air to our north. A Bermuda high looks also likely to form pumping up the heat in the Middle Atlantic especially middle to late Summer. So for temperatures... (These are average anomalies statewide for each month of the summer; JJA)

June- (-.1)-(-.6)
July- (+.9)-(+.4)
August- (+1.1)-(+.6)

As you can see I am going with a gradual cooler June transitioning into a pretty warm August. But in reality those anomalies are not that intense either way. This will prove that the summer generally will be met with typical temperatures, that is heat waves, and cooler spells. We have been in a cool pattern for quite a while and I think that will continue through May and the first 3/4s of June, but we will finally transition out of this constant troughing pattern in the Northeast. Still though I do think New England especially middle to northern areas will see cooler than normal summer temperatures. I think the hottest weather will be located across the middle of the nation and the coolest temperatures over the Pacific Northwest thanks to the negative PDOs continued effects.



Precipitation- Mainly locations are starting the 2009 year off in a deficit in the rainfall department. While many people would not consider us to be in a drought especially after all of the rainfall recently, most of the state has rainfall anomalies at (-3)-(-6)inches. For example Harrisburg International Airport has a 5.22inch deficit for the year and Williamsport Climate Reporting Station has a 3.19inch deficit. Locations in the western part of the state are running a bit better in the rainfall department, but still below normal. Pittsburgh has currently a 1.97inch deficit. Now while we have entered a relatively rainy pattern, it still really has not put a dent in the deficits and once the typical stratiform rainstorms end by late May and our rainfall becomes convective, it will become more unreliable for daily or weekly rain. I expect this summer to be characterized by several day or week periods of little to no rain followed by a deluge of heavy thunderstorm rainfall. Looking at the jet stream track the ridge of heat looks to be centered in the middle of the nation with the jet stream weak trough over New England. This puts our area at risk for large complexes of thunderstorms, but they would favor northern parts of the state and southern portions would be left in the dust. With cool Sea Surface Temperatures off the Atlantic and high shear levels along with blocking highs, it seems unlikely for much tropical activity. Any remnants of tropical systems would likely be from Gulf of Mexico storms which have a higher probability to track elsewhere other than the Northeast. So for my forecast rainfall looks to be near normal for western and northern areas thanks to being closer to the active jet. Southern areas should be below normal by 1-3inches for the entire summer. They will be affected by a consistent downsloping.

Severe Weather- This forecast is just experimental, but anyways it does appear possible for some large severe weather outbreaks especially favoring the month of July and early August in the heart of summer. As mentioned earlier large complexes of thunderstorms, MCS, are very possible with the highest threat probability for northern portions of the state. Intense positive CTG lightning strikes and damaging winds are always possible from these systems. As far as sever weather compares to other seasons, I do not see anything too unusual as far as being widespread. Reports will probably be a bit more than the summer of 2008, but far less than the near record breaking June of 2007 and the entire summer of 2007.



Final Thoughts...
This forecast did cause me a few problems coming up with especially with all of the opposite attracting factors. Unlike this previous Winter and Summer, there are no clear cut factors to pinpoint one extreme to the next. But looking at the overall current status of the pattern, it is clear that the Summer should feature heat waves and cooler patterns. Dry spells may be common especially as it appears that a predominant blocking high over the Southeast should keep most tropical activity away from the East Coast, that should be good news to many though. My main area for tropical concern this year is the Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas coast. The East Coast appears to luck out at least with the pattern as many tropical systems will feature turning out-to-sea fish storms. But it only takes on rogue storm like Andrew in 1992 to dominate a season. The saving grace to potential drought is the active northern jet stream which may feature some decent thunderstorm complexes on occasion especially in months such as July. With the season already starting out in a deep deficit for most locales, I find it difficult that we would be coming up on the positive side of anomalies by the end of August. Keep in mind this summer outlook is for the meteorological summer months of June, July, and August. At the end of August, I will issue my recap blog taking a look at my verification of accuracy for my forecast. So far my Summer 2008 outlook and Winter 2008-2009 outlook have fared excellent with only a few minor precipitation errors in some regions of the state so hopefully this outlook pans out too, although I will admit confidence level is a bit below status quo. Looking ahead, my annual Earth Day blog will be posted this coming Tuesday on April 22. It will feature environmental tips and some conclusions we can make about climate change. The blog will not be a debaticle on global warming, but it will instead take the approach of conserving the environment as it can only better our future. I hope everyone has a wonderful and safe Summer!!!

Summer 2008 Outlook... Link.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2009 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 0
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 3

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Monthly Precipitation- 2.27inches
Yearly Precipitation- 5.52inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0

Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009
Vegetable Garden 2009 (Blizzard92)
Cool Season Crops
Vegetable Garden 2009

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82. ronni9
3:56 PM GMT on May 02, 2009


JUST STOP BY TO SAY HELLO



\\\\\\\\\\ COME ON BY AND SEE ME SOME TIME ///////////

R9

Member Since: December 3, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 850
81. JDinWPA
2:17 AM GMT on April 22, 2009
Hey Bliz. Nice Blog! I do like the part about possible thunderstorm complexes hitting the northern part of the state... it seems like it's been soooo long since we have had a summer full of storms. It's time!

Your garden is looking excellent. Between the cool rain and beingbusy, I haven't gotten around to doing as much in the garden as I would like to have done. The potatoes still need planted and the onion plants are just heeled in. But the garlic, chives, horseradish, lettuce and spinach are all doing well. Now if the groundhogs just stay the heck out of the garden all will be well.

Between yesterday and today, we've gotten a decent amount of rain, .89". But then again,here north of Pittsburgh lack of preciphas not been a real problem. Like you mentioned in your blog, the southern counties are becoming rain challenged.
80. weathergeek5
1:33 AM GMT on April 22, 2009
We just had the first real thunderstorm of the year. There was a bit of wind then the rains came (my lawn is growing like crazy) plus there were a few loud claps of thunder. This weekend could get rather warm for this time of the year. it seems lately we always skip spring and head right into summer.
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79. TheRasberryPatch
1:06 AM GMT on April 22, 2009
ended with 0.15" of rain.

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78. Zachary Labe
1:00 AM GMT on April 22, 2009
.31inches is my final total for the night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. TheRasberryPatch
12:04 AM GMT on April 22, 2009
0.12" of rain. from the radar i may see a bit more

also, it looks like down in maryland and around baltimore they saw a good amount of lightning
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76. Mason803
11:57 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
rain has ended. there was fast clearing behind the last band of rain, so fast that it made a bright double rainbow.
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75. Zachary Labe
11:25 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
Heavy rain here currently. 1.21inch rain rate.
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74. Mason803
11:17 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
second round through with 3rd on the way. 0.29" of rain so far>
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73. TheRasberryPatch
11:06 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
no measueable rain so far, but looking at the radar it is coming up from the south right towards me.
no lightning or thunder
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72. Zachary Labe
10:29 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
upweatherdog- Thanks for the report! I will be anxious to see the pictures!


***Some thunder/lightning here with .21inches of rain so far.
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71. upweatherdog
9:57 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
I want more snow.lol

I'm always hoping for the biggest snow total in the county, but then as the synopic moisture pulls away, I realize I'm about 3 miles too far south from the lake for lake enhancement. In the end, the high elevations to my northwest, north, and east always come out with the most snow.

The town of Herman 28 miles to my northwest got around 21 inches of snow. Negaunee 15 miles to my east got 18 inches of snow.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
70. TheRasberryPatch
9:48 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
so far just some dark clouds to my west and the winds are picking up.

UPER isn't that enought snow for you?
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69. upweatherdog
9:13 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
My storm is pretty much done.

8 inches of snow fell yesterday, and about 5 inches fell today. The storm total is probably around 13 inches, but the snow depth is 11 inches due to compacting.

The snow coated everything this morning. Some large tree branches fell in the neighbors yard. I got photos of the snow covered trees just in time before the wind started and the temp went above freezing.

Around Negaunee yesterday, the trees were totaly snow covered. We were comming back from Marquette, and it was very pretty in the woods along US 41.

I had no school. The power went out, then the internet and cable. Everything is back on now :)

It looks like MUCAPES may approach 1000 J/kg with lifted indices around -1 to -3 on Friday. However, there is a strong cap, and if it breaks, strong to severe thunderstorms may develop!
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68. upweatherdog
9:09 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
upweatherdog- Yep, in a sense. While your hills are not quite like our mountains there are still leeward and windward sides of the mountains which cause downsloping on eastern slopes. Your are being to the east of the hills is getting less precipitation than to your west.


Thanks!
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67. Zachary Labe
8:28 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
Mason803- Pretty windy! Thanks for your report.
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66. Mason803
8:26 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
one storm has moved trough. i had two gust to 31 and one lightning strike a few miles to the south of me. rain has been less than 0.10".
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65. Mason803
8:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- Alright. Looks like one of those late Lehigh Valley bloomers.


yeah, looks like the strongest cell in franklin will just graze me. we'll see>
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64. Zachary Labe
8:02 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
Mason803- Alright. Looks like one of those late Lehigh Valley bloomers.
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63. Mason803
7:52 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
watching a line of storms just to the west of me. i'll keep you updated as they pass through.
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62. Zachary Labe
7:41 PM GMT on April 21, 2009
My annual interactive Earth Day blog will be out early tomorrow morning!!!
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61. TheRasberryPatch
11:13 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
thanks for the info Blizz.

0.96" of rain for the event with 3.39" of rain for the month. that seems like a good April.
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60. Zachary Labe
2:27 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
upweatherdog- Yep, in a sense. While your hills are not quite like our mountains there are still leeward and windward sides of the mountains which cause downsloping on eastern slopes. Your are being to the east of the hills is getting less precipitation than to your west.
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59. upweatherdog
2:05 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
Spealing of storms, there is a strange dry spot over my area right in the middle of the U.P. I think the upslope flow over the hills to my north are causing downslope flow over my area. This would explain why snow can't seem to get heavy over my area.

Anyone- Is this downslope flow, or something else????

I have studied the model data and simulated radar and radar trends, and this is the only hypothesis I can make. All I notice is when the upslope flow gets more intense in the hills, the snow in the hills get's more itense, and the snow over the flat area where I live just south of the hills gets less intense.
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58. Zachary Labe
2:03 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Central primary low is heading through the Upper Great Lakes around 996mb. Departing high pressure just east of Canadian Maritimes kept some cold air damming at the surface today. A secondary low will form along the Delmarva. This storm would have likely resulted in freezing rain or plain rain in January. Warm front is staying to our south for the most part so likely some type of freezing rain. Instability moves in tomorrow likely resulting in winter time a WINDEX event with snow squalls. Pretty typical storm of recent Nina winters.
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57. TheRasberryPatch
1:46 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
Blizz - if you get the chance can you explain this storm to me. i haven't looked at any maps or satellites. what kind of storm would this have been in the winter?
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56. TheRasberryPatch
12:57 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
sorry i didn't get back to you. what i was talking about is when you cut the strap to the tipping bucket could it have been moved a few times or more and it was registered on the station. that is the discrepancy i was talking about.

0.73" of rain as of now. still lightly raining.
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55. Mason803
12:44 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- A strong cold pocket aloft and very unstable air is moving in, especially tomorrow. There could be some intense little convective cells late tonight and tomorrow capable of pea sized hail also.


i read that on ctp's discussion. maybe like the event back in nov.08 though that may have been more grapel/sleet than hail
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54. Zachary Labe
12:38 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
Mason803- A strong cold pocket aloft and very unstable air is moving in, especially tomorrow. There could be some intense little convective cells late tonight and tomorrow capable of pea sized hail also.
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53. Mason803
12:29 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
radar is looking a little more active to the south and west. just had a shower pop up right over me that dumped a quick 0.03" in one minute.
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52. Zachary Labe
12:16 AM GMT on April 21, 2009
.81inches of rain now here. Not sure if I can help with the rain gauge, I do not remember doing the zero anything.
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51. Mason803
11:20 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
i made sure it was level. how do you zero in the bucket?
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50. Mason803
11:18 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
i believe they do Mason. i just checked my data in CWOP and it comes back OK.

looks like you have been gettting some rain. just a steady 0.10"/hr most of the day. the best kind, i think

0.70" of rain so far

wonder why mine is "so hot"? it's less than twenty feet from my rainwise guage and at the same height? i'll monitor it for a couple of events and see if i can pick up a pattern. yeah it has been raining steady all day with a couple 1" per hour rounds roll through.
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49. TheRasberryPatch
11:13 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
i believe they do Mason. just curious - did you make sure when you installed the rain gauge that it was zeroed? i just checked my data in CWOP and it comes back OK.

looks like you have been gettting some rain. just a steady 0.10"/hr most of the day. the best kind, i think

0.70" of rain so far
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48. Mason803
10:47 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
rain is adding up today. just measured the srg ( offical coop rainguage) and had 1.41". my rainwise station is showing 1.38" which is a little low but but bad, however my vp2 station is showing 1.59". do davis rainguages come calibrated?
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47. TheRasberryPatch
7:42 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
0.57" of rain so far. i like this kind of rain. it will help my newly planted vegetables, but not drown them. i could also go for this kind of rain each week.
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46. Zachary Labe
7:04 PM GMT on April 20, 2009
.56inches of rain so far.
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45. Zachary Labe
10:05 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
It is going to be a nasty day. 15mph gusts, 44degrees, and rain this morning.
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44. TheRasberryPatch
2:04 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
it already feels like an onshore flow. when i step outside i felt like i was at the beach.
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43. Zachary Labe
1:34 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- A nice onshore flow and complex storm system should dump about .75-1inch of rain throughout the state.
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42. TheRasberryPatch
1:09 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
where are we in the rain? will we see that much rain for tomorrow? i am guessing it is a storm tapping into the atlantic?
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41. Zachary Labe
12:20 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
weathergeek5- Probably a few large 2inch+ rains. We need the next few months to have above average rainfall, which is unlikely. My summer outlook details the El Nino and such, even though you are in DE you can probably guess which zone you would be in.
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40. weathergeek5
12:10 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
How much rain would get us out of the dry spell. With a possible El Nino late this summer or fall would we get more rain?
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39. Zachary Labe
12:07 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
weathergeek5- Eh, they issued a flood watch a week or two ago which was not necessary just like this one. Creeks may rise a bit and there may be a few large puddles but no flooding.
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38. weathergeek5
12:05 AM GMT on April 20, 2009
Yes I am under the flood watch. It is going pretty good. The weather has been pretty boring lately. Here is the flood watch statement:

.FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...
NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
BURLINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CHESTER...DELAWARE...
MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A MOIST AND FAIRLY POTENT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD MAKE
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SUCH A RAIN EVENT MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OF CREEKS, STREAMS, URBAN AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&
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37. Zachary Labe
11:52 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
weathergeek5- Hey! How's it going? Are you under the flood watch? That seems a bit unnecessary. Short term wise, yes. But with growing vegetation the rain is quickly sucked up before the water table gets any excess water. A dry winter is never a good thing. But in any case this rainfall is very beneficial.
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36. weathergeek5
11:38 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
It seems as though a lot of rain is coming for my area. Is this enough to get us out of the dry spell?
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35. upweatherdog
8:56 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
It's going to be neat to see what happens to the trees with all that snow. I will for sure get some pics.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
34. Zachary Labe
8:53 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- My radar defaults are 20 frames, fast frame delay, zoom 1x, show labels, smoothing on, clutter show, rain/snow show, lightning show.

Thanks! I actually just installed that fence. I had nothing there before and nothing ever got to that garden. The groundhog does not like to seem to come that close to the house. But anyways I decided to install a little fence just to be on the safe side.

upweatherdog- Get some pictures, wet snow is really neat on everything! I see a winter storm warning is out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
33. TheRasberryPatch
8:40 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
nice pictures of your cool season garden, blizz. everything looks healthy, especially your onions. it looks like you could pull a few now if you wanted something fresh. won't be big, but i have heard the small ones this time are great.

i noticed you are using skimpy sticks to hold up your fence. be careful. groundhogs just knock them over.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
32. TheRasberryPatch
8:15 PM GMT on April 19, 2009
that is why i don't live in the UP. i prefer to be a troll and live below the bridge. haha snow this time of the year, YUK

hey Blizz - what radar controls are the best for nexrad? i put it on 15 frames, frame delay fast, zoom 1x, smoothing off, clutter hide, rain/snow hide, lightning hide.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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