Spring-like weather is ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:42 PM GMT on March 29, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 3/29)
Good afternoon!!! There has been a bit of talk lately about computers and automated forecasts replacing meteorologists on the field. It seems that technology is advancing to the point of replacement in some realms and fields. Why just the other day I walked into Home Depot and checked out using an automated machine instead of a employee cashier. But in the field of weather this talk of lack of need for meteorologists in the future is bogus. Automated forecasts just do not have the same skill as a pure meteorologists or otherwise human forecast. Even with the development of such advanced computer systems for forecasting in the last decade, statistics prove that accuracy of a forecast has only improved about a day and a half. Forecasts for 5-day forecast accuracy 10years ago are equilavelent to 7-day forecasts of present day. Features such as radiational cooling and snow cover in winter affecting temperatures does not have any influence in these automated computer made forecasts. There has even been talk of people suggesting the NWS offices be merged into regional offices. For example have all of the Pennsylvania offices become one. Yet this causes major problems. Each office for Pennsylvania is allowed to focus on the mesoscale activity that is subject to their geographic location. For example there is a big difference between the weather in the southeast Piedmont near Philadelphia than in the northwest mountains near Du Bois. Local NWS offices also coordinate public EMA meetings and SKYWARN opportunites for the general public. I think those mentioning that there will be little need for meteorologists in the future are just trying to stir the pot thanks to the poor economy. In fact working for NOAA is one of the best current federal government associated jobs there are in the present time. There will likely not be pure non-human generated forecasts in the next decade. As forecasts become more accurate from models, humans will create even better precision and accuracy along with exploring the options of forecasting longer term.

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 3/29)
998mb low is heading up through the Great Lakes currently along with a trailing cold front. A double barrel low pressure of 996mb has formed in West Virginia and will be headed across the Middle Atlantic with the cold front during the afternoon Sunday. Impressive jet dynamics and wind field aloft are promoting a chance of some strong convective activity over southern areas of Pennsylvania as the low travels closely by. The warm front is lifting northward eroding the present marine layer. As the low passes by the flow will shift to the northwest during the day Monday under a slightly tight pressure gradient. Winds aloft at ASOS stations in the Laurel Highlands are near 40-45knots which may cause some gusty winds near 50mph on the ridgetops especially those westerly facing. H85s will drop to near -7C also causing a few snow showers in the mountains during Monday morning. High pressure moves in control for Tuesday with lighter winds under the clockwise flow. Winds will generally be light with mild temperatures. Another storm system will be across the middle of the nation creating a southwesterly flow here in the east bringing in some warmer air and more humid air later Tuesday. A 1024mb high will be departing across the Canadian Maritimes and a tight frontal precipitation band will be across the Ohio Valley. A tight pressure gradient will cause gusty southwest winds near 30mph ahead of the front. Once again a second double barrel low travels across the Middle Atlantic. Under the strong and moist southerly flow a decent rainfall is possible. Latest guidance promotes QPF to around .5inches or slightly above. MOS guidance suggests even .75inches. The front will travel through with only a bit drier and slightly cooler air. Weak 1016mb High Pressure takes control later Thursday afternoon ahead of another storm system. This one takes a bit more southerly and easterly track and heads up through the Ohio Valley as a strong 996mb low. This storm system has the potential for some severe weather on Friday in some areas. As we head into the weekend high pressure remains in control ahead of yet another storm system for early next week with more severe weather in the Plains.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecast" (Updated 3/29)
COMING SOON!!!

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
Well quite the fire hazards last week. Red flag warning criteria was met statewide last week under brutally dry conditions and desert like low dewpoints with 15% RH values. Many brushfires were fought statewide, but especially in the lower Lehigh Valley. Nearly 10 wildfires were reported in Montgomery County in only a two day span. Even with this latest rainfall, there will still be dry conditions. With growing vegetation anything below a half an inch of rain will be quickly taken in by the growing plants. We need a soaking rain of over 1inch at one time to start recovering the ground water table. This time of year is crucial to the rest of the Spring and Summer season in terms of soil moisture. This rainfall will only affect the near term, but for those of you with wells, this rainfall is not helping the situation for later in the year. It still does appear the wet pattern continues for a bit next week, but I expect as with this storm that the precipitation will begin to dry up as it moves east. Looking at bufkit data, yesterday 18z GFS printed out 1.9inches of rain mid week, 6z GFS went to .79inches of rain. Most areas are currently at a deficit of about 5inches for the year especially for the east half of Pennsylvania. That deficit will be hard to make up if there isn't a Spring nor'easter. Once Spring is over most of our precipitation is from convection which is not a reliable source of rainfall. Late Summer sometimes though can produce beneficial tropical rains. But I am hoping we can stay in this wet pattern through April with these waves of precipitation every few days. If not, we are going to run into problems down the road come June and July. As far as the wildfire threat next week, it looks relatively low.

Here again are the fire criteria for development in Pennsylvania... Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
Well this time of year just gets me so excited to get planting, I always jump the gun a bit. In any case today I noticed a few of my ornamental crab apple trees are starting to bud and will shortly turn the beautiful pink buds. I also noticed this weekend started the cherry blossom festival in Washington DC. It must be Spring. Despite somewhat dreary weather yesterday, I headed out towards the flower nursery for some more vegetables, again I am always a bit premature. I bought some leeks, lettuce, and celery plants. I found that the leeks are somewhat preventive in keeping pests away from the garden. I am hoping my celery plants hold out as they are a bit touchy as far as temperature. My onion bulbs I planted two weekends ago are sprouting very nicely, especially the red onions ones. My pea seeds have also sprouted and are slowly coming up. My garlic shows no signs of growing so hopefully I wasn't too late in planting it. Now for my broccoli and cauliflower, sadly they are destoyed by my leaping gazelle-like groundhog. He pulled the entire plant out of the ground root and all. He then decided to hop next door and destroy their fresh veggies. Keep in mind all of our gardens are fenced in. He jumps the two foot chickenwire fence. I found his home which is located in someone elses backyard. His makes his daily travel from my yard in the back and then squeezes into my nextdoor neighbor and finally ends up two homes down the street in their garden. Ugh! I guess until myself or my neigbors are more proactive, we can't complain too much. I plan on planting in the next week or so, some Spinach and possibly replacing the broccoli and cauliflower that was destoyed. Also it looks like there won't be too many frosts for this coming week and rainfall looks somewhat plentiful.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
A bit of severe weather is possible this afternoon as high bulk shear aloft near 110 knots 8km aloft and high helicity values. CAPE values remain marginal near 500-700 j/kg and LI values are meager near +1. A strong 992mb low will be pulling up through the Great Lakes along with a strong cold front producing steep lapse rates helping to form thunderstorms under relatively elevated instability with MU CAPE around 500 j/kg. Latest lightning convectivity is showing some impressive CTG and CTC lightning strikes with about 40 in the last hour in Maryland and Pennsylvania. Freezing levels being only around 8000ft will also help to cause hail. Pea sized hail will be common even with small updrafts. PWATs are near .7inches, so very marginal. Heavy flooding rains are not expected keeping rainfall at only max rates near 2" per hour. Kinematics show parts of southeastern Pennsylvania to be near the front right entrance of the upper jet where the strongest winds aloft are located. Surface dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s with boundary layer temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Currently the best instability looks to be a line from Red Lion, York County - Lancaster County - Chester County - Bucks County. Latest mesoscale analysis shows the CAP has broken for extreme eastern Pennsylvania, but most areas remain under the inhibiting factor of stable air from this mornings marine layer and easterly wind. In any case it appears strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the areas mentioned above. It appears after today the severe threat is non-existant for this coming week with convective chances held to a low to a minimum. Stay tuned through Sunday afternoon for more updates!

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (April)
Due to ever-so dull nature of the weather lately and my busy schedule, I never did issue a formal March prediction. In any case it appears the month will come up with near normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures along with below normal precipitation for most areas with only above normal precipitation for areas north of Interstate 80. I had a bit of a difficult time coming with a prediction for April. There still though does appear to be a general agreement with an analog year of April 2008. That month was dominated by generally a zonal flow with a weak trough situated over New England. This April I am expecting generally a ridge across the central part of the nation with a trough over the west with a central axis though off the coast and a weak trough across northern New England. This pattern fits well with teleconnections of a positive NAO and negative PNA along with a weak influenced MJO and GWA wave pattern. The weakening SO Nina also favors this setup given the month of April.

Temperature- I am going with near normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures. The cooler anomalies will be found for those closer to the New York/Pennsylvania border as they will be closer to the cooler air of the Canadian Maritimes with a trough over northern New England. This will occasionally provide the opportunity for a back door cold front.

Precipitation- Precipitation appears to be below normal for much of the month with the lowest anomalies across the south. Backdoor cold fronts will occasionally bring rain to northern Pennsylvania along with some lake enhanced rain/snow showers on the northwest flow. Meanwhile the flow will be a bit more southern stream dominated with much of any moisture being suppressed to the south of the state with the southern Middle Atlantic being in a more favorable region. Of course with any mesoscale events as thunderstorms, this could disrupt the precipitation totals for localized areas. The severe weather threat appears low for Pennsylvania as there should be a lacking in the clashing of warm/cold airmasses.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Winter Storm Watch" (Updated 3/29)
Well for those of you holding out for an onion snow, odds look pretty slim. Still looking at teleconnections the PNA is heading possibly positive and we have a negative NAO. A few of the guidance does show the potential for something along the east coast with the last wave on this parade of storms in the next week or two so I guess that is something to monitor. But I think I am done with snow for this season, and just ready to get in my thunderstorm game face. April snowfalls are somewhat common across the state especially for upsloping locations in the Northwest Mountains and Laurel Highlands. It does appear as H85s dive down to -7C Sunday night and Monday morning along with 1000-500 thickness around 538 that some upsloping snow showers will occur under the wrap around flow from the departing low in the Great Lakes. Snowfall accumulations of C-1.5inches are possible for elevations above 2000ft with just a dusting possible in the valleys. This will be confined to Somerset, Cambria, Warren, Crawford, Mercer, Erie, Mckean, Elk, and Cameron Counties. The rest of the week looks to mild for any sort of snowfall even after weak cold front passages.

"ECMWF/GFS Day 8-10 H5 Mean Anomalies"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2009 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 0
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 1

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Monthly Precipitation- 1.25inches
Yearly Precipitation- 3.05inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0

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115. Zachary Labe
2:06 PM GMT on April 05, 2009
Mason803- I do not know. I think it will be somewhat difficult with a setup like that especially with connectivity issues. The station was not made to be separate.


***New blog today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
114. Mason803
12:29 PM GMT on April 05, 2009
TRP. you hit upon the problems i have with the rainguage. one good thing about having the rainguage so low is easy access to clean debris. I really like the temperature shield setup though.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
113. TheRasberryPatch
12:00 PM GMT on April 05, 2009
that is a very impressive setup. do you have to worry how close he is to the trees? and does the pole have any effect on rain? and will that person have a problem with things getting in the rain gauge?

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
112. Mason803
11:28 AM GMT on April 05, 2009
signs of hope

Link

this is sort of the direction i want to go
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111. Mason803
9:37 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
TRP,

I didn't get the weatherlink with the station because i already have an interface running constantly with my rainwise station. I wasn't sure if i could run two programs or not do to the ports on my pc, the compacity of my pc, any other concerns. I going to check through some davis weather station online forums and see if i can find anything out that way.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
110. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Mason803- Next Friday I am trying again, but it looks like rain is possible.

TheRasberryPatch- Ugh, still me being lazy. I have all the software hook up and such, I just have yet to start uploading data to CWOP and WU.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
109. TheRasberryPatch
9:25 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Mason - i don't know of anyway of seperating the two. when i read the report i believe they had said that they had to go to Davis engineers to get that configuration.

i think you will like the VP. did you purchase weatherlink? and also, to work with weatherlink i like to use the software the ambient weather has to offer. it also, allows me to send my data to wunderground. i think it is needed for CWOP.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
108. Mason803
9:19 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
blizzard92, thanks for the insight. congrats on getting your rainguage unclogged. every 2 years or so my old rainguage would get get clogged thanks to the birds. i'd get so mad when i'd get a good rain and see zeros on the display. sorry about your first day of trout season. tommorrow looks to be a stellar day as i'm sure you know to get out there and try your luck.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
107. Zachary Labe
9:00 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Mason803- Their magazine that comes up every year is the only one where I see that sensors are separate. As far as I know I do not think you can separate the rain gauge.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
106. Mason803
8:44 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
blizzard92,

I was hoping to isolate each senor. Do you know anyone that sells the seperate temperature consul you made reference to? Could you simply unhook the rainguage from the senor assembly and not use as shown in figure 2 of this Link
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105. Zachary Labe
8:33 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Mason803- Ah great! I hope you enjoy it. I bought the largest tripod that Davis offered. The entire system mounts to this. The only way to get the temperature and rain gauge seperate is to buy another temperature consul that is solar powered and mounted by itself which sends signals back to the main consul when programmed. As far as I know the rain gauge and the temperature sheild cannot be seperated without buying the extra sensor.


*By the way all I finally unclogged the raingauge, lol. It was full of tree buds.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
104. Mason803
7:52 PM GMT on April 04, 2009

I'm now an owner of a davis vp2 6153 pws. I found it at an incredibly low price and went ahead and picked it up. Pretty excited to run it up against the rainwise station and the mmts. Thanks for all the input in earlier blogs about davis stations TRP and blizzard 92.

Question for you blizard 92. On your vp2, how easy it to detach the rainguage from the temperature shield and what does the temperature shield mount to?
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
103. upweatherdog
6:16 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
At the local sporting goods stores, the power bait is usualy sold out when we look for it.

I have seen in some of the grocery stores they have frozen large and small smelt. My dad and I use the large smelt for pike fishing, but I wonder if the small smelt could be used for trout fishing. I think small smelt would be good for fishing for lunker trout in river pools. I think I'll have to try this.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
102. Zachary Labe
5:37 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
I used power bait on a split sinker type setup. But with every person known to man out this morning every bait was just about being used. I also tried a colorado spinnner and peanut spinner but had no luck. Conditions weather and water were just about as bad as anyone could have asked for.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
101. upweatherdog
4:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
I've heard of power bait, but I havn't used it.

I use worms on a set of gang hooks for trout fishing in lakes, with 4-8lb mono filament line. I sometimes use Power Pro fishing line, which is extremely strong and thin, but it is easier for trout to see. I manily use this kind of line for pike and muskie fishing.

Here are some trout fishing tips I have learned. In sunny weather with clear water conditions, it is best to use a spinner that is red, black, gold, or gray. In cloudy weather it is best to use a spinner that is yellow, white, or silver. In clear water conditions, a spinner with a willow-leaf balde works best. In muddy or cloudy water, a spinner with a Colorado blade works best, becasue it is noisier. If you use a spinner in a lake, cast it as far as possible, and real it in at a steady speed, and stop occasionaly and jiggle to line. This will give the impression of a dying fish.

When fishing in a stream or river, cast upstream and then let the lure drift past you then real it in. This gives a more natural look to the spinner when the fish see it, plus this method makes it easier to get the lure right where you want it. This is key since trout like to hide in the calmer water behind rocks in or near rapids, and they wait for food to drift by. In a fast river, use a heavy spinner, like a size 1 or higher. In a small stream, use a light spinner like a 1/4 1/3 or 1/2, but if the water is fast, use a medium weight spinner like a 1/2 or 3/4.

You should also wear green or gray clothes while fishing, because trout have a hard time seeing those colors.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
100. TheRasberryPatch
3:47 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
uwd - i think for stocked trout you use power bait that looks like a cheese ball.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
99. upweatherdog
3:25 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Trout season up here dosn't open on the streams around my area until the last Saturday in April. However, there are a few lake near me where fishing can be done year long.

Bliz- did you use lures or live bait for fishing?
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
98. TheRasberryPatch
3:10 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Welcome to trout fishing Blizz. or should i say fishing for stocked trout.

I did it for at least 10 years in Maryland and we would get there at 530 with wall to wall people. or should i say elbow to elbow and most of the years it was below freezing with either freezing rain or snow. In Maryland they hold the first day around mid-March. Like i have said a few times, after the first morning, you will find the streams empty mostly

i wouldn't want to be out golfing today. maybe the guy from Conn is golfing. hahaha. i haven't seen him on the blog lately
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
97. Zachary Labe
2:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2009
Ugh, what a horrible first day of trout fishing in Pennsylvania. I was out in Lebanon County at Marquette Lake by the Gap at around 5:20am to get my spot. There were people already there from 230am. Anyways we (hundreds) all lined up elbow to elbow till 8am and no one caught anything. A rogue catfish was caught but that was it. It was cold as ever with overcast skies and high winds, the water was also muddy. Just lovely. From what I have heard it seems like no one had any luck anywhere.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
96. Mason803
9:33 AM GMT on April 04, 2009
TRP,

davis held it's own the this study. I enjoyed the study also. I'd love to recreate this study only not have my cable cut on the mmts. i shouldn't need a repeater. my other station is around 3-400 ft from the house. i might call davis directly and see what they say. thanks for the response.

Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
95. TheRasberryPatch
1:07 AM GMT on April 04, 2009
To Davis Weather station owners:
I got this reply from Davis asking if they had a wireless weatherlink and this was their reply

We do not have wireless weatherlink but we do have a newer product which is the weatherlinkIP. WeatherlinkIP has similar functionality with your usb/serial datalogger but the only difference is it connects directly to a wired/wireless router rather than to a computer therefore you may access your weather station via wireless laptop.

they didn't give me a price, but i may look into it. if anyone has purchased this can you give me info on what you think
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
94. TheRasberryPatch
1:04 AM GMT on April 04, 2009
Mason - that is a very impressive study. i enjoyed reading it. Ashame that someone accidentally cut the line and then instead of letting someone know, just patched it badly.

i have the VP with the passive shield and from reading the report it doesn't seem like the fan aspirated was any better in data. from what Davis has told me in the past is that the fan aspirated is good for hot areas that are dry and that i really didn't need it for Pennsylvania.

i wish i could give you more direction. can you just follow what the study had setup?
depending on how far from your house you may need a repeater.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
93. Mason803
9:51 PM GMT on April 03, 2009
to all davis weather station owners:

I'd like to get the vp2 aspirated temperature senor with housing without buying the whole vp2 station like shown in fig. 2 in the link below. I'm going to run a similar test of my own with different temperature senors including my mmts, my rainwise senor, and hopefully the vp2 senor. any help or direction would be helpful.Link
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
92. TheRasberryPatch
8:56 PM GMT on April 03, 2009
0.86" of rain so far for the day and it looks like some heavy rain is on the way for a bit.

more strong winds heading our way as well. ugh

Blizz - you told us 3 months ago your rain gauge is clogged. come on now lets go. haha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
91. Mason803
8:38 PM GMT on April 03, 2009
update on rain in western adams. at my house i've recieved 1.59" so far. just outside carroll valley at my second observation site at the golf course 1.22" fell as of 12pm. toms creek was bankfull and a number of side roads had ponding of water.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
90. RkTec
7:31 PM GMT on April 03, 2009
.66 inches of rain so far here. Clouds have broken in spots with intermittent periods of sun and a current temperature of 62.

Be interesting to see what happens as the next batch of rain & front approaches based on the surface instability that may be setting up here.
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89. Zachary Labe
7:03 PM GMT on April 03, 2009
.97inches of rain today from my lacrosse station. Vantage Pro2 gauge is clogged, ugh!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
88. TheRasberryPatch
11:23 AM GMT on April 03, 2009
at least someone is getting some good amount of rain.
0.42" of rain as of 723am

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
87. Mason803
10:33 AM GMT on April 03, 2009
quite a rainfall last night with a total of 1.06" thus far as of 6:30am. more to come as second batch of precip eyes itself toward the region.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
86. Zachary Labe
12:28 AM GMT on April 03, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- This time of year is the most dull for weather across the Northeast.

JDinWPA- Thanks for your stats! I have been meaning to stop by your blog, but haven't had a chance yet. Anyways my garlic is growing like wild too and thank goodness my goundhog does not seem to like that.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
85. JDinWPA
12:19 AM GMT on April 03, 2009
Good evening Bliz. Here's last months stats:

High temp ~ 67 3/7 & 3/31
low temp ~ 1 3/3
rainfall ~ 3.08" (almost half of that fell on 3/8)
snowfall ~ 1.25"

Today I noticed buds out on the lilacs and the crab apples. I have spinach that just broke ground and the garlic is up and growing like crazy. On the negative side, my mother groundhog is back and the other day i saw her move 3 little bundles from under the old shed to the new one. Isn't that just soooo special!!! ;}
84. upweatherdog
11:46 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
The GFS model has been trending back towards the situation I have in my April Temperature forecast. My precipitation forecast looks right to, except the GFS indicates high pressure will keep most precipitation to the south, east, west, and north of the northern Great Lakes, which I do not believe will happen. Good thing I didn't change my map.lol
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
83. SilverShipsofAndilar
11:10 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
The fabric of the spacetime continuum is unraveling in Carlisle. We are all going to be sucked into a vortex of weather purgatory. No snow, no hail, no thunder, no lighting, no sun, no warmth, NO WEATHER. Color me dissatisfied.
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82. TheRasberryPatch
10:49 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
am i looking at it being so cold that there could be some snow next week? wow
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
81. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Ugh yes cold air. Look at the bufkit meteogram data... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
80. TheRasberryPatch
8:38 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
the fog was very dense this morning. i haven't seen it that dense in a long time. maybe less than a quarter mile.

more cold air coming into town next week, huh?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
79. Zachary Labe
7:52 PM GMT on April 02, 2009
weathergeek5- Yep. Interesting weather pattern continues. Maybe even some strong thunderstorms tomorrow. Then an abnormal trough heads our way next week with well below normal temperatures. Any fog out your way this morning? It sure was dense here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
78. weathergeek5
11:10 AM GMT on April 02, 2009
I heard the weather over the next week could be active for our region. Did you hear that too?
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77. Zachary Labe
2:05 AM GMT on April 02, 2009
.3inches of rain here today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
76. TheRasberryPatch
10:48 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
ugh - wunderground can be such a pain. i posted and of course it didn't show.

i got 0.25" of rain for the day. i will take it. not bad for the first day of April
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
75. Zachary Labe
7:12 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
upweatherdog- My rule of thumb is to just let a forecast ride, wrong or not.

onoweather- Thanks for checking in! Hope to see you around more often.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
74. onoweather
2:46 PM GMT on April 01, 2009
hey blizz i havent stopped by for a while. The flashing lights in the sky sunday night were also seen near middle creek. Fire engines were sent out looking for an explosion, and they also activated pema's headquarters until they realized what it was. Beautiful weekend ahead and a couple more weeks til the corn can go in!
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
73. upweatherdog
10:45 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Uh oh! It's begining to look like blocking will increase in intensity this April, and the blocking index now shows a Greenland block developing, unlike previously thought. Latest GFS data supports a northwesterly flow across the CONUS through early and mid April, with average to above average temps across the southwest, along with below average temps across the Great Lakes and northeast with below average precipitation. It now looks like high pressure will keep diving southeast across the CONUS from northwest Canada. I'm thinking of significantly changing my April outlook based on the continuing trends. However, the NAO and AO look to go positive in late April allowing warm air to flow northward into the central CONUS.

Should I change my April outlook to below average temps across the north and above average temps across the southwest?
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
72. Zachary Labe
10:10 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
HeavySnow- Huh, pretty interesting.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
71. HeavySnow
2:01 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
hurigo- I found something on what you were talking about...

The mysterious boom and flash of light seen over parts of Virginia Sunday night was not a meteor, but actually exploding space junk from the second stage of a Russian Soyuz rocket falling back to Earth, according to an official with the U.S. Naval Observatory. Link.


At least that's what they'd like us to believe happened. Agent Foxx Moulder does not concur with that explanation. The truth is out there.
I saw the flash.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
70. TheRasberryPatch
12:54 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Blizz - i knew nothing about it until i read about it the next day in the paper.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
69. Zachary Labe
12:00 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Hahaha. For me it is all about this wave of industrial expansion and the constant building of shopping centers, condos, etc. I never did end up hearing how that light thing went, lol. I guess there was a low turn out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
68. TheRasberryPatch
11:47 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
good for you Blizz for doing your part on Earth Day. just don't be like al bore. did you see on saturday when everyone was turning off their lights for an hour he had the lights on in his mansion for earth hour or something like that. too funny, another do as i say not as i do.

for my part i hope to be boating on the water, hahaha. just kidding
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
67. TheRasberryPatch
11:43 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
i didn't hear anything hurigo.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
66. Zachary Labe
11:42 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
hurigo- I found something on what you were talking about...

The mysterious boom and flash of light seen over parts of Virginia Sunday night was not a meteor, but actually exploding space junk from the second stage of a Russian Soyuz rocket falling back to Earth, according to an official with the U.S. Naval Observatory. Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
65. Zachary Labe
11:07 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
***Information on coming events...

-Weekly forecast will definitely be issued sometime tomorrow.

-Looks like some nice weather for the first opening day of trout season here in southern Pennsylvania. Last year it was absolutely freezing, probably the coldest I was that entire year. It was in the 20s with a stiff gusty wind along the water.

-Summer outlook will be coming out shortly in a week or two probably sometime right around the Easter holiday.

-There will be a special feature blog this coming month in April and it will be my annual Earth Day blog. Do your part. I have already volunteered to do some community tree plantings of 250 tree bare root seedlings.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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