Winter Recap Part I...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:26 AM GMT on February 21, 2009

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Introducing Thoughts...
Ah, it is that time of year. Being nearly 3/4ths through the astronomical winter and only 7 days till the end of the meteorological winter, it is time to take a look back at some of the interesting weather events of the 2008-2009 winter. This winter has been marked by colder than normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. Last year I also posted a winter recap about half way through the winter, see link below. In each storm summary, the link provides back to my blog from the storm.

Look back at a typical Pennsylvania's winters...
An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters though even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures.

October 28-29 Halloween Wet Snow...Link.
It is hard we to believe we have to go all the way back to October. But winter started early and kept on through the end of January with solid cold air. An interesting weather setup occurred with relatively short notice for forecasters as latest guidance suggested a low pressure forming along a quasi-stationary boundary and track nearly up the eastern Hudson Valley. The low bottomed out at 988mb just north of Long Island and it cruised northward. H85 temperatures crashed along the backside of the low pressure as it strengthened and evaporational cooling allowed the higher elevations to see some snowfall. The precipitation shield was generally confined to eastern Pennsylvania as 850s fell below 0. Winds aloft near 60knots brought down some 55mph gusts on the west side of the low pressure creating blizzard conditions where snow was falling. As the low pressure lifted northward a deformation band formed with nearly 40dbz mesoscale bands across the far northeast. Snow rates were near 1-2inches per hour. Due to the early nature of the system snow ratios were only near 10:1 resulting in a very wet snow causing long lasting power outages and tree damage combined with high winds.


Figure 1.1 shows the low pressure system just east of New York City on Long Island at 18z October 28 at 992mb.

A heavy elevation specific snowstorm occurred with extreme and near record breaking snow totals for parts of the northeastern state of Pennsylvania. Highest amounts were recorded across Lackawanna County, Luzerne County, Wayne County, Pike County, Carbon County, and Monroe County.


Figure 1.2 shows our own Stan999's picture during the height of the storm with a recorded 17inches.

Dynamic cooling under the rapid deepening of the low also resulted in some interesting snow totals in isolated across the southeastern part of the state.

PENNSYLVANIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
DOYLESTOWN 1.0 130 PM 10/28
LANGHORNE T 1045 AM 10/28
LEVITTOWN T 1040 AM 10/28
SPRINGTOWN T 720 AM 10/28

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
SOUDERTON 1.5 1140 AM 10/28
WILLOW GROVE T 700 AM 10/28

As the low rapidly pulled to the north across Canada an unusually cold air mass plunged southward across the Northeast resulting in a heavy lake effect snow outbreak that brought flurries all the way to Philadelphia which was quite an anomaly.

THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL IN OCTOBER IN PHILADELPHIA
WAS...OCTOBER 30, 2002.

Heavy squalls of lake effect snow reached far east bringing heavy snow amounts to western Pennsylvania giving near record level snowfall for the month of October to Erie and Pittsburgh.


Figure 1.3 shows our own JDinWPA having 3.5inches of snow near Butler, PA from pure lake effect. The sun from the next day and high water content of the snow resulted in rapid melting.

November 20-22 Lake Effect Snow Anomaly...Link.
Probably my favorite winter weather event of the winter was a very interesting lake effect snow event. A weak clipper system pulled out of the region as the flow turned more northwesterly. Wind trajectories were near 280 shifting to a more 300degree northwest flow. With H85s unusually cold near -10C and lake temperatures in the 50s, the spark contrast created several large snow squalls. The first snow squall was a Huron-Erie Streamer that reached from Erie, PA to Philadelphia, PA dropping heavy amounts of snow across the region in a very narrow band from Erie to Bradford to St Mary’s to Lewisburg to Selinsgrove to Reading to Coatesville. Snowfall amounts of 8inches were reported in Elk County with amounts near 5inches across Union and Snyder Counties. The band stayed relatively stationary throughout that night. An enhancing shortwave bringing a cold air vortex across central Lake Erie brought more interesting weather the next morning. A cold pocket on the H5 chart brought an enhanced area of moderate low-topped snow which was not visible on NEXRAD radar. Snow amounts in the Harrisburg-Lancaster Corridor were generally around 3inches with most of that on the grass due to the daytime event. Later that day the flow turned more to the 310 trajectory allowing more large streamers to funnel in across Pennsylvania. Snow totals near Pittsburgh reached 2inches with areas in the Laurel Highlands around 8inches near Laurel Summit. Across northwestern Pennsylvania snow amounts were well above a foot in the suburbs of the city of Erie. A large 322 streamer formed later that day bringing another round of heavy snow to central Pennsylvania. State College reported 1.5inches of snow in the band. Harrisburg received another 2inches of snow adding to the daily total of 5inches strictly on the grass and no where else.


Fig. 2.1 shows snow squall for the afternoon of Nov 21st, view to the east from NWS CTP. Photo by Rob Radzanowski, Forecaster.

Snow rates near 2inches per hour occurred as colder funneled into the region with 1000-500mb thicknesses near 518. H85s were near -15C. The following day on the 22nd another weaker 322 band formed and dropped a quick additional 1inch of snow in the Harrisburg area resulting in two day totals of 6inches.


Fig. 2.2 shows the third heavy snow 322 streamer here north of Harrisburg courtesy of my photos. About 4.5inches of snow was on the ground at the taking of this picture.

Overall the event proved to be a very interesting mesoscale feature event with very distinctive Huron-Erie streamer bands. This event brought many areas up to above normal snowfall for November. The area that did seem to miss the snow was across the Lehigh Valley. Just ask jthal57, lol.

December 6-7 Light Clipper Event... Link.
A weak Alberta clipper moved across the state of Pennsylvania. As usual December 5 or 6 always seems to bring the first widespread snow to everyone. I always consider that date the first measurable snow of the year as an average. The snow was generally light across the state with 1-3inches across western and central Pennsylvania. Amounts were a bit lighter to the east, but some areas saw higher amounts in the east thanks to some bay enhancement. The light amount of snow and cold air temperatures resulted in snow covered with scores of accidents on the slippery roads. Snow ratios were also near 20:1 resulting in a fluffy snow. As the clipper pulled away the lake effect machine opened up with high snow amounts across the Alleghany Plateau. Also high winds occurred after the clipper with wind advisories being posted.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH AT TIMES. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALL NIGHT.

December 11-12 Forecast Mess...Link..
One of the larger forecasting busts of the season was for the so called significant ice storm. Winter weather advisories were issued for the state of Pennsylvania along with winter storm warnings. A cold front pushed across the region with generally .5inches of rain. A push of colder air was supposed to move into the region relatively quickly ahead of a low pressure riding up the nearly stalled cold front across eastern areas. The low pressure caused quite the snow anomaly for parts of the southeast. Many parts of southern Texas near the Gulf Coast received a rare snowfall.


Fig. 3.1 shows our own snow pictures from shoreacres of 2inches down in Galveston, TX.

The push of colder never really moved in as quickly as most thought for this system resulting in a forecast bust for the ice storm for most areas excluding the Poconos which received nearly .25inches of ice. The storm did produce a significant rain total for many areas with 2-3inches for many areas.

December 16-17 Significant Winter Storm... Link.
This was one of the more significant winter storms of the season. A stalled quasi-stationary frontal boundary was draped to the south of Pennsylvania. Overrunning moisture brought a mix of snow/sleet/and freezing rain to much of the state. Warm air advection brought a decent amount of snow to many areas across southern Pennsylvania along the turnpike as embedded mesoscale bands formed across the region. One band in particular stretched from Raystown Lake to Carlisle bringing very heavy snow with rates near 1inch per hour. It did take a bit of time for much of the snow to fall as there was some high virga returns across the southern portion of the state. 40dbz returns 4inch amounts in this narrow corridor especially near Amberson Valley across northern Franklin County. As the front lifted northward precipitation turned over to some coatings of freezing rain and sleet. Ice amounts were generally under .25inches. The NWS failed to issue a winter storm warning for the region which caused many issues after the storm as snow/ice criteria reached warning criteria.


Fig. 4.1 shows our own TheRasberryPatch and family out in a few inches of snow that afternoon.


Fig. 4.2 shows the heavy snow returns across the southern portion of the state.

This is was one of the few storms of the season where the highest snow amounts were reported. It was a general 2-4inch snowfall for most areas.

December 19 Ice Storm..."Link.
Another complex storm system of the heals of the recent winter event headed towards the Northeast in what was a very busy weather pattern. Low pressure from the southwestern portions of the United States headed northwest across the Midwest and through the Ohio Valley. Anomalous PWATS brought heavy precipitation across much of the state. Initial warm air advection brought snow generally north of the I-80 corridor but as far south as Allentown. Snow amounts generally were 2-5inches. The La Nina brought this west to east progressive flow.


Fig. 5.1 shows the H5 chart showing the ridge over the southeast and trough over the western United States.

As warm air advected into the upper levels 850s rose above 0C for many locations. Freezing rain occurred in most locations with a general .1-.25inches for the region. Overall QPF totals were relatively light across the state nearly .5inches for most locations.


Fig. 5.2 shows a picture from my location where .1inches of freezing rain occurred.

December 21 Ice Event... Link.
Another weak overrunning type system moved across the state of Pennsylvania. Marginal QPF near .2-.4inches resulted in advisory criteria freezing rain amounts. Highest amounts were across northern Pennsylvania where for a time ice storm warnings were issued. The storm was also highly elevation specific resulting in extremely heavy ice in the higher elevations above 1000ft.


Fig. 6.1 taken by myself on top of Blue Mountain at an elevation of 1220ft shows the heavy ice nearly .4inches where a heavy accumulation of snow. At the valley surface with an elevation of 500ft there were no signs of any wintry precipitation.

December 24 Christmas Eve Ice Storm... Link.
This was a high impact event which was caused by another inland cutter with a low pressure passing through northwestern Pennsylvania. High pressure to the north caused cold air damming to hold its ground causing nearly .25inches for many locations. Many accidents were caused by the ice eventually shutting down part of the PA turnpike in the Lebanon County-Lancaster County corridor. Temperatures eventually rose above freezing for most locations as a southwesterly flow eventually one over from the easterly wind. Temperatures in fact rose into the 50s before the front came crashing through.


Fig. 7.1 shows some of the total ice accretions across Pennsylvania for the event.


Fig. 7.2 shows a radar image of the small shield of precipitation. There is also clear evidence of cold air damming with the northeasterly flow.

January 6-7 The Forecast Bust of the Winter... Link.

Ah, one of the worst forecasts for forecasters in quite a while that sparked controversy that continues to this day. Latest GFS and EURO models showed another overrunning event tracking across the region, but farther south than those of December. This in turn would bring more snow for much of Pennsylvania including southern areas. Winter storm watch flags were issued statewide with the threat of 4-8inches of snow with higher amounts in northeastern areas. Then about 24hours before the event there was a small change in model guidance that had a huge model result. Having put out my snow maps and such about 2hours before, I noticed this difference. Quickly I was able to write my discussion about 15hours before the storm...

Lack of confidence for forecast, therefore no discussion on storm. I believe that much of central Pennsylvania will be dry slotted and then as precipitation moves in, some of it will mix. Accumulations will be lucky to get to 4inches I think at this point. I am not one to give up on a storm, but I have had a bad feeling about this storm all week, just see my posts from a few days ago. I think these warnings may bust badly. I-80 corridor and northward is place to be as frontogensis places heavy snow band at that location. A sharp cutoff can be expected to the south. Then as precipitation moves in due north of low, mixing will take place. What we need to setup is a good initial band across central Pennsylvania as indicated by some earlier model runs on the 700mb RH moisture charts. Whether that will happen or not is a question. I have a feeling some areas in York and Lancaster will really get shafted. In any case I hope I am wrong, but this is how I see things this evening. And I would rather feel good to know that I am firm with my gut than stick with the NWS forecast of warning criteria snowfall just because they have a winter storm warning.

This in fact saved my forecast when the NWS continued with then issuing winter storm warnings. The next day the 850 low tracked farther north resulting in 1inch amounts for Harrisburg where NWS forecasts called for 4-8inches. Even though I did issue my bogus maps, I quickly canceled them. Without sounding conceited, I really do think it was one of my best calls of the winter. I was able to spot the bust well ahead of any other forecasts calls. Therefore as we all went to sleep that night none of us were to disappointed. The track of the 850 low made all the difference. People focused too much on the surface low track. So all in all I guess things worked out at least here even though we missed what could have been a decent snow. The NWS is being continued to be criticized for the terrible call even when it was evident amounts were not going to pan out. These were all supposed warning snows, here are some actual totals...

PENNSYLVANIA

...CAMERON COUNTY...
STEVENSON DAM 1.0 700 AM 1/7 COOP REPORT

...CENTRE COUNTY...
PLEASANT GAP 0.5 700 AM 1/7 SLEET
STATE COLLEGE 0.2 700 AM 1/7 SLEET

...CLEARFIELD COUNTY...
GRAMPIAN 1.5 700 AM 1/7 COOP REPORT

...CLINTON COUNTY...
RENOVO 1.0 700 AM 1/7 COOP REPORT

...COLUMBIA COUNTY...
BENTON 1.1 700 AM 1/7 COOP REPORT

...ELK COUNTY...
RIDGWAY 1.0 700 AM 1/7 COOP REPORT

...LYCOMING COUNTY...
HUGHESVILLE 0.5 1013 PM 1/6 SIGNIFICANT ICING
WILLIAMSPORT 0.5 1000 PM 1/6 COOP REPORT

...TIOGA COUNTY...
WESTFIELD 1.0 700 AM 1/7 COCORAHS

January 17 Coldest morning in a decade... Link.
January averaged about 3-6degrees below normal statewide making it the coldest since 2003. But on the morning of January 17 with high pressure, temperatures bottomed out to some of the coldest temperatures in a decade with negative readings in just about every single county in Pennsylvania. Here just north of Harrisburg I got down to -3, which was the coldest temperature since having my vantage pro2. A record low was also broken in Williamsport with -13 breaking the record of -12 set back in 1982. Parts of the Northeast received amazingly cold temperatures with Maine reaching their coldest temperature in the state's history in the -50s.


Fig. 8.1 shows some of the morning lows across the region.

January 27-29 Largest Winter Storm of Season... Link.
The largest winter storm hit at the end of January. Another overrunning system was progged to hit the region with model guidance in fair agreement. The low trekked across the Missouri Valley and across the Ohio Valley spreading precipitation in its path. 700mb frontogenisis created moderate snow to break out across southern Pennsylvania with snow rates at times near 1inch per hour. Warmer air aloft moved across the area changing western Pennsylvania relatively quickly over to ice and then eventually plain rain as both 850s and surface levels climbed above freezing. A round a bit earlier than the main event aided in some light snow across southern areas with 1-2inches south of the turnpike. As the main low moved in the heaviest gulf moisture was widespread over the region. Stubborn cold air hung tough for several hours around the turnpike on northward giving away very decent snow totals. Dendritic growth was excellent along with great Omega Values. With the initial round H85s were near -15C but quickly rising to +-2C of 0C. Total QPF for the event was 1.5inches for most areas. The precipitation generally was in the light snow to heavy snow to heavy sleet to light freezing rain for most locations. This encased the snow making for the lovely concrete which created a snowpack for nearly 20days here just north of Harrisburg.


Fig. 9.1 shows the surface map on the 28th of January.

Overall my forecast for the storm was by far the best of the winter. And going back I really do not think I would make any changes.


Fig. 9.2 shows my verification map with my forecast and actual snow totals plotted on top of it.

February 3-4 Freak Mesoscale Event... Link.
The strangest event of the winter unfolded as a coastal storm affected parts of eastern Pennsylvania. A low pressure tracked well off the coast, but the deformation band of snow formed across the Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania area giving over 8inches of snow to KPHL Airport, breaking the record for the day. Many other snow totals in the 3-6 range were recorded. As the coastal low pulls away, a very unusual mesoscale event occurred. A pocket of extreme cold air in the H5 chart tracked across southern Pennsylvania. Similarities were very obvious to the November event. A lake effect snow band formed out of the Mt. Gretna mountains of 800ft elevation on south through Lancaster County tracking through Manheim and Lancaster creating a once in a lifetime 5-8hour event. Heavy snow unfolded with 3inch per hour snow rates. Over 12inches of snow was reported in the central portion of the band. The high resolution computer models were accurately able to predict this intense squall, but off course placement was a little off. Snow ratios and beautiful dendrites were able to produce this abnormal amount of snow over the very isolated area.


Fig. 10.1 shows our own Snowlover2010 and 5inches of snow.

Satellite feeds were able to interesting pick up on where the snow hit.


Fig. 10.2 visible satellite for next day.

The following evening another snow band occurred this time taking on the classic 322 band. High snow ratios near 20:1 occurred along with very cold temperatures with readings in the teens. The band hit State College and south through Lebanon. 2inches of snow I recorded, but amounts up to 4inches were reported in Lebanon County in Campbeltown by our own TheRasberryPatch. High winds also blew in the storm creating drifts up to 8inches along previous snow banks from the January system.

...AN BAND OF DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
JUNIATA COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY...NORTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY
AND SOUTHWESTERN SNYDER COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM EST...

AT 718 PM EST...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF DANGEROUS SNOW
SQUALLS WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF MILLHEIM...TO NEAR
MCALISTERVILLE...MILLERSTOWN...AND PORT ROYAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

VISIBILITIES IN THE SQUALLS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL FALL ONTO RELATIVELY WARMER ROAD SURFACES...WHICH WILL
CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY MELT AND THEN RE-FREEZE. THIS COULD CREATE VERY
ICY CONDITIONS IF THE ROAD SURFACE IS UNTREATED. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ROUTE 322.

Concluding Thoughts...
Well sitting here now nearly the end of February, it is hard to believe another winter passed quickly before our eyes. This winter was marked by some extreme suffering for those south of the Pennsylvania turnpike. My seasonal total stands at 22.40inches which is below normal, but areas just south of the turnpike are only at around a foot of snow. This season was a very progressive year thanks to the La Nina. The flow was embedded with too many shortwaves to allow any significant cyclongensis to form along the coastline. The Alaskan Vortex also plagued us for much of the season with a negative PDO and negative PNA. Also we lacked the true western-based NAO. There complex progressive flow caused the models to have a rough time this winter causing o so much heartbreak for many. Also the cold and dry January caused heartbreak as we had the opportunity for snow with the cold temperatures. One thing to keep in mind is that it is never good to have a dry arctic blast of record cold air. It never bodes well for snowfall. The snow drought continues across the Middle Atlantic for another year. To me the winter was very interesting with the strange lake effect snow mesoscale events and odd October snowstorm. Honestly if we would have had a large 6+ snowstorm I would call this winter a success and memorable. But another years goes by since our 10.5inch St. Patrick's Day snowstorm of 2007. In any case there is still a few days of meteorological winter left and about a month of astronomical winter. Looking long term wise I really just do not see any good snow opportunities. A few long wave signs of a stormy and cold mid March followed by late Spring could bring another maybe cold April. But I am pretty sure with a warm start to March. Overall I would call my temperature forecast for the winter a success with below normal temperatures. My snowfall forecast of normal snowfall will pan out for some areas, but not the southern and eastern parts of the state. In any case I will leave verification for another blog. My winter forecast period ends at the end of February. My forecast was for December, January, and February, the meteorological winter months. I hoped you enjoyed this recap and it will bring some fun memories back from the winter. Also take some time when you are bored and check out some of the past blogs. Some of our conversions are very comical to read! Have a great day.

Here are some special blog links...
-Middle Atlantic Winter Blog...Link.
-Part I Winter Forecast... Link.
-Part II Winter Forecast... Link.
-Winter Recap 2007-2008... Link.

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And the 0z GFS is west! .25-.5 QPF into I-95 corridor. Sharpcutoff though to west. But none the less farther west.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Well, the 00Z GFS has trended west with the second system. Maybe not as far west as the ECMWF or the new RGEM but it's certainly a good sign for snow further inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been on the northwest periphery of the heavy QPF for so many model runs now it's getting quite annoying.

Hopefully the ECMWF continues west or holds its current track from the 12Z run. For all the times this winter that the models have trended west you know this would be the time to head east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In the other corner *mother nature deciding what she is gonna do*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My first local met and their "Futurecast" computer model has us in a lot of snow for quite a long time from Sunday afternoon through Monday midday. Starts as rain tomorrow afternoon and then transitions to sleet and snow Saturday night but light amounts it seems until the second storm comes later Sunday. That's from the weekend dude however.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
sullivanweather- Ha, I just was going to bring up the RGEM. Very impressive! Looks wild across the south. The 12z EURO was definitely farther west than American models. Deformation band brings .4inch for KMDT and .6 for KPHL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I'm ready to take a shot on the toss. Heads!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
I think the see-saw in the models is what's most infuriating.

One cycle of one model goes east, the other goes west. Then as all the models start trending east, one goes west and the others follow. Then the models jump east again as the models that were east before jump back west.

The NAM had been one of the wetter models until this most recent run. Now it's way off to the east.

But now, looking at the NGM/RGEM, one might conclude there's a blockbuster brewing.

Just check out the 00Z RGEM. It's insane!

Some of the individuals members of the SREF are insane also, bringing 3"+ of QPF into the cold sector for some locations.

This is looking like an observational trend forecast. Careful eye needs to be paid on convection in the South, which would ultimately raise heights and help to have this system hug the coast. This type of mesoscale development is hardly going to be picked up by global models.

We'll see what happens but right now it's looking like the second system will bear the brunt of this storm.
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Anybody feeling lucky?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
and so here we are... nature is going to the coin toss.

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
That is why we are burned out from this winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weathergeek5- I whole heartly believe that if we were to get a decent snowstorm this winter, it would come as nearly a surprise in the last 24hours. No I am not saying this is it, but the pattern this winter has been so variable solutions are not at all accurate until the last minute.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
That is why i am hesitating on this thing. I am doing a wait and see what this thing will do. Another 24 hours hopefully things will be less murky one way or the other.
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TheRasberryPatch- .32inches for the day of rain.

weathergeek5- Don't get hopes up too much, lol. Though there is major potential. The latest 0z NAM continues with more northern jet interaction which is good. If we could get a full jet phase this thing could be big, but of course odds are against with lack of key blocking and such; still though a possibility that I want to throw out there. The weather has pulled many surprises before.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Should I bite?

From our local NWS MT Holly

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST AND SPREAD SNOW ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW, THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
TUESDAY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL, BUT THE STORM DOES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM,

ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. ONCE THE STORM PULLS
AWAY FROM OUR REGION TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY REACH OUR AREA FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope everyone saw the special weather statement for the area. looks like we may get some more rain.
i only got 0.09" of rain this morning early afternoon
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
I will try to get a forecast out tomorrow, but not this evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
its funny when you say Quatrains. i relate it to the Quatloos that the Providers use for currency on the planet Triskelion.

i agree mostly with you. no one wants to mess with Israel.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
i dont think blizz is willing to take a shot in the light right now with the way this winter has gone lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Bliz are u willing to take a shot in the dark and tell me what you think may happen this weekend.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
PP - just by what i am reading, i assume those cities are in France? tents will be pitched by people of foreign tongues? sounds to me like the allies or germans. shaking of land and sea i would guess is the bombs that are shaking the land and sea.
i don't see hurricane katrina.
Hister - most people relate it to Hitler. pretty incredible to come up with that name.
you are so right when it comes to the vagueness of his writings. every scholar has a different read and i believe he wrote in Latin or some other obscure language that is difficult to understand. not that Latin is difficult, but is was a form that was difficult.

take a look at this about the russians. looks like they are up to same games as the cold war. just what i was saying about them and iran. they are so untrustworthy

Link


Personally, I see the Century 1, Quatrain 50 to be an attack by the British or Spaniards.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nantes - Take a look at the location of Nantes. Which would imply that the region would be serving as a fort of battleground -- it certainly would be a naval port for somebody.

Nostradamus was known for using an influx of french and latin in certain different syntax when writing his Quatrains, for the purpose of security. He didn't want the message to spread any more than he knew it was going to -- which caused him to paraphrase in the manner that he did. Pretty keen idea to do, obviously it didn't totally work.

To touch up on an earlier statement. I think Medvedev or Ahmadinejad are capable of starting a large-scale war waged worldwide. They're certainly trying to get the munitions to allow that -- I just don't think they will.

While I think Ahmadinejad is a lunatic... I don't think he has the stones to actually push Israel to the brink. He may not think too highly of the Israelis, but I'm certain he's gotten the low-down from the Lebanese, the Egyptians, and what's left of the PLO that when Israel climbs out of their hole -- they come out swinging for the fences.

Russia, on the other hand. I actually believe Russia will be thee antagonist in the final battle. They'll have the Islamic world on their side, as well as the Orient, but I don't think either of those two entities would be strong enough to do this, Russia will be.

Scary thought: A friend's Youth Minister once told us that biblically speaking -- there's no mention of the United States in the End Times... hence, there's no guarantee that we as a nation, will be there.

This however can be debated, as many a Minister/Evangelist/Theocrat have cited the United States mention allied with England, Australia, and the Americas under British symbolism -- something about a lion, an eagle, and a horse? I can't remember the correct symbolism but they believe that stands for the "Western World".

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Yep, it's amazing how gracefully an animal that size can move when motivated!

It's a real indication as to how rough the winter was if I'm actually happy to see the groundhogs emerge.
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PP - just by what i am reading, i assume those cities are in France? tents will be pitched by people of foreign tongues? sounds to me like the allies or germans. shaking of land and sea i would guess is the bombs that are shaking the land and sea.
i don't see hurricane katrina.
Hister - most people relate it to Hitler. pretty incredible to come up with that name.
you are so right when it comes to the vagueness of his writings. every scholar has a different read and i believe he wrote in Latin or some other obscure language that is difficult to understand. not that Latin is difficult, but is was a form that was difficult.

take a look at this about the russians. looks like they are up to same games as the cold war. just what i was saying about them and iran. they are so untrustworthy

Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Afternoon model update...

Looks like GFS is as usual the outlier. Latest 12z EURO gives a nice .4inches of QPF for the two systems together. NAM delivers some light snow. The weaker the first event, the farther northwest the second system is which is what we want and the latest EURO shows this. In any case being 54hours out and the solutions on the table are worthless. And this is not one of those times you can use meteorological forecasting techniques and ignore the models. We must use the models to see the strengthen and position of the northern jet stream which is still up in the air leaving open several options. For those a little lost with the setup. A stalled front will be off the coast. Two waves will ride up along the front. First system generally pretty weak. Second system tries to form a cutoff 500mb low over southeast and track up the coast and pretty far off the coast. Amount of phasing in this split flow will cause either a decent storm or a fish event making the questionable strength of the northern jet very important.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting JDinWPA:
There's a few grackles also. And I saw a chipmunk scurrying through the neighbor's yard this morning. And I spotted a groundhog meandering in a mowed cornfield yesterday!

More spring dance!!

NOOOO!!! That means the groundhog who leaps like a gazelle will be soon back!


Good afternoon all!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Patch, Over the years I think I've read close to 800 or so of Nostradamus' quatrains, and while I am very skeptical about some (9/11 attacks, for one) there are several that I have read and have been totally amazed with.

The one that amazes me the absolute most (and many scholars as well) would be Nostradamus' quatrains dealing with what scholars believe is his prediction of the second World War and the rise of Adolf Hitler. Now the one thing that is amazing about this quatrain -- is that Nostradamus puts emphasis on the word "Hister" -- which we all know is just one letter off from being "Hitler" -- HOWEVER, there is the chance that Adolf Hitler's name was pure coincidence as the term "Hister" is latin terminology for The River Danube in Europe -- which was one of the landmarks of Hitler's conquests (Germany, Czechoslovakia, Austria-Hungary, etc). So, was Nostradamus taking a shot at a madman's name? or was he pinpointing one of the major locations of the world's largest combat operation?

I think the big problem with Nostradamus is that he was waaaaay to vague to be taken seriously on a lot of predictions, I'll give you an example

"The cities of Tours, Orleans, Blois, Angers, Reims and Nantes
are troubled by sudden change.
Tents will be pitched by (people) of foreign tongues;
rivers, darts at Rennes, shaking of land and sea."


(Century 1, Quatrain 50)


That to me -- would suggest a disaster of some nature in France, or a French speaking district in Europe. The kicker there is "tents will be pitched by (people) of foreign tongues". However, many scholars are now wondering if this was a prediction of Hurricane Katrina.

I love reading the writings of Michael de Nostradame -- but it's so frustrating trying to figure out whether or not he was predicting something that actually occured - or if he was wrong.

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
PP - I don't put much into soothsayers or the like. you must admit nostradomus was pretty accurate with some of his writings.
i think ahmadinejad or the like could start a world war. china and the russians love to give iran goods for a nuclear timebomb. it only takes one nuclear or dirty bomb to go off before fingers start pointing and then what?

whatever year anything occurs if it does i put my faith in God and Jesus Christ. whatever occurs i hope i can have given back more than what i was given.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
well thats the thing with it all, Patch -- it's supposed to be this multi-pronged event that in all reality would be directly linked to civilization being disrupted in some fashion or another

i personally do not believe the next world war will be started by madmen like ahmadinejad or medvedev who just want to rule the earth -- i think it will be caused by 2 nations of people starving creating factions and all that. i could be wrong -- but i think famine and the manner in which supplies are horded off will be what ultimately creates a war.

these will be caused by meteorological or astronomical events. i just don't see them occuring on 2012, or being accentuated by what occurs then. again -- just my opinion
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
One thing i have read JD is that some Robins or thrushes stay around all year its just that the colors are not visible. I have noticed a colorful Robins within the past week.
get the shotgun out for that groundhog. what a menace they are in my garden. last year it actually dug under the RR posts to get inside.

PP - i guess i wasn't thinking about the wars. i was just thinking about civilization being disrupted.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
There's a few grackles also. And I saw a chipmunk scurrying through the neighbor's yard this morning. And I spotted a groundhog meandering in a mowed cornfield yesterday!

More spring dance!!
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
haha PP. what is amazing is those shows on Nostradamus and 2012 comes in with some correlation with what - was it NWS or NOAA or NASA - stating that year will be a huge year for a big solar storm or storms that could knock out all kinds of stuff including electricity for months and that we should be prepared.


well there are some scientific events to take place in or around that year (polar shift, possible complete swap) the alignment of the galaxy, and possible solar storms -- none of which will destroy the earth, even though the solar storms or shift in polarity could cause some issues with our beloved satellites -- but none will destroy the earth

as for the worldwide crisis events (wars, rumors of war) ehhhhh... i'm not going there. that's a discussion that could be taken the wrong way by people due to possible differences in religious and/or theocratic views.

i'll sum it up by saying this: the world will end (despite what Jack Van Prognosticator thinks) -- juuuuuuuuust not in 2012.

www.december212012.com -- laffs-a-plenty
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
There are 5 or 6 robins in my front yard at this very moment!!!! First sighting of the year!

Spring dance!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
haha PP. what is amazing is those shows on Nostradamus and 2012 comes in with some correlation with what - was it NWS or NOAA or NASA - stating that year will be a huge year for a big solar storm or storms that could knock out all kinds of stuff including electricity for months and that we should be prepared.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
pouring down rain here in palmyra, right now. niice!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
well, i'm hoping you're only 15 or 16 then, buddy because the "storm of the 2000s" probably won't occur until like... 2089 or some crap.

if i'm not dead at that point in time, i would like to be. i do not wish to see 103 years of age. ugh.

this is all open to debate/downcast. depends on whether you believe we have 3.5 years of existence left or not. hah!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
I'm still hoping for my storm of the century. Well, according to the NAM I posted, storm of the . . . forever?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
looks like this weekend's storm is going to split in half once it reaches virginia...

and why not? everytime i drive through virginia, i feel like splitting in half, too... (my god it takes forever to go north-south thru that state)

atlanta and raleigh once again get more snow than us. time to laff it up.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
is that the same detroit lions team that hasn't won a championship since the last ice age? hahaha


same. same players, too.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
is that the same detroit lions team that hasn't won a championship since the last ice age? hahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
like i said it looks like an act of God
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
I agree with your initial argument, Patch -- it's damn near impossible for an ice age to occur over the span of 7 or so days (however long that storm waged over the Northern Hemisphere) and I don't think we'll ever have storms of that magnitude spread out due to the fact that storms like to eat eachother when they get that big and strong...

that said, I can buy the premise of how the beginning all works. I think if Global Warming were true, and the glaciers would continue to melt like we're told they are -- I could see a desalinization point occuring with the currents shifting -- but again, that would take hundreds, maybe thousands of years to occur seeing as the currents are... well... currents.

If I'm not mistaken -- 6 months before that movie came out - one of the government agencies held a press conference discussing that very subject. I think it had roughly the same attendance as a Detroit Lions football game.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
yeah, i see the pic. it looks more like the radar that the government saw in "Independence Day" than the storms from "The Day After Tomorrow".
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Hang on . . . can you guys not see the erroneous NAM image I posted?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
PP - well one thing for sure is we need the rain. thunderstorms? hmmmmmmm. probably depends on how strong the cold front is when passing through.

i saw the day after and enjoyed the movie, but for something that drastic to happen would take an act of God. well 700 light years away his eye is watching us.
Link

I just can't imagine cold temps and such a severe storm could bury such a huge part of the world that fast. in other words we get an ice age in a day? then what would all those scientists that get so much publicity about global warming do for a living? i guess after that storm they will get some credibility because the snow and ice would have to melt at some time. hahahahahahahahahaha. that is too funny.
can't wait to see when the world and gov'ts start regulating cow's blasting of methane and same with the sheep.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Patch, it is simply beautiful outside... I love it.

I'm wondering -- with how warm it is now, and how warm it may get today before the rain arrives if we stand any chance at thunderstorms? That would be pretty sweet today.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
i saw "The Day After Tomorrow". Great movie, I don't think we'll ever have to worry about that happening in our lifetimes, but uh... great movie nonetheless.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250


Has anyone seen the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"? I hope it's all snow.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Wow, I can't believe everyone is so into snow mode that there is no chatter about how warm it feels outside this morning or that blob of yellow and red radar to our NW.
Looks like JD is getting dumped on. I wonder how much of that is coming our way. We certainly could use some precip as dry as Feb. has been
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting Blizzard92:
hurigo- Lol, they had winter storm warnings out too for you area didn't they. It has been a tough year for forecasters. Personally I am glad it is just about over even though I look foward to winter. It just has burnt everyone out.


Or maybe Winter will hang on and throw everyone for a loop? I think Old man winter will hang on for dear life for a bit. I hope not, I want warm weather!!
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Blizz, it does seem as though it has been a rough winter, both for forecasters and those in border areas of systems who just want to put on the flip flops and go to the beach for sand or snow!
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hurigo- Lol, they had winter storm warnings out too for you area didn't they. It has been a tough year for forecasters. Personally I am glad it is just about over even though I look foward to winter. It just has burnt everyone out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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