Final Snow Map and City Accumulation List...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

Thoughts on January 14th storm...
Good Afternoon! Well this current storm is a dud for many areas of Pennsylvania. I like my snow map, but I highly doubt now that southern pennsylvania sees any snow accumulation. Also I do not think that New England sees a much snow as was forecast. But let us all keep our hope up for the next storm on Thursday.

Also I know I have talked much about the western part of Pennsylvania, because of the coastal storm. So with the clipper coming through do not be surprised to see c-3inches of snow all the way as far east as harrisburg.

This blog is also for anybody's opinion or forecast for this storm. Also if anyone has any questions, I will be happy to answer them. I will continue to update this blog for this event as it grows closer. Have a great day!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Washington, DC to Wilmington, DE to Philadelphia, PA to Trenton, NJ to New York City, New York.
-Anybody to 30miles either side of the line will see a mix. Furthur north than that and you will see snow and furthur south you will see all rain. Also I do not think the coastlines will see much snow. Maybe just a few inches.

Storm impacts...
1. 8hr storm at most locations
2. snow bands may set up inland with high snow rates
3. high winds in areas of Maine and Cape Cod, MA
4. not too large area of sleet or frz rain
5. Wet snow that may cause power outages

Final Snow Map...
Final Snow Map...
The red line is where the mix/snow line might end up. Anybody northwest of that line should be all snow.
"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- C-2inches
Baltimore, MD- C-2inches
Washington, DC- C-1inch
Wilmington, DE- C-2inches
Dover, DE- C-1inch
Cape May, NJ- Coating
Trenton, NJ- 2-4inches
New York City, NY- 2-5inches
Poughkeepsie, NY- 4-7inches
Binghamton, NY- 3-7inches
Albany, NY- 2-4inches
Hartford, CT- 5-9inches
Concord, NH- 4-8inches
Providence, RI- 4-6inches
Worcester, MA- 5-10inches, locally 12inches
Boston, MA- 5-8inches, locally 10inches
Nantucket, MA- C-2inches
Portland, ME- 4-8inches
Bangor, ME- 4-8inches
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Well the models shifted east and more compact with the precipitation. Overall I think this was pretty poor forecasting from almost everyone. I blame the models though, lol, as they have been back and forth with this storm for weeks. I do not think we will see many 12inch amounts like currently forecasted. Alot of people, especially on other blogs did alot of wishcasting that created this big hype about this small coastal storm. We are all snow starved. Lets up we see some good snow soon, widespread.

More updates are coming all the time so stay tuned...
Have a great evening!!!

Here is the 18z GFS...
18z GFS...

Here is the 18z GFS precipitation amounts...
18z GFS precip. amounts...

Here is the 18z NAM...
18z NAM...

After the storm...
The next storm I am going to forecast is the possible coastal storm for Thursday. I plan on doing a better job forecasting that storm than I did this storm. This is all a learning experience. Sometimes the weather pulls tricks of its own, that forecasters cannot see.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the coastal storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 96 - 46

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

96. Zachary Labe
2:37 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Yes, I think so too. My NWS still says little to no accumulation for Harrisburg. But based on the new nam and gfs I think we will see 2-5inches of snow. (Advisory level)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
95. eaglesrock
2:36 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Ed - With this NW trend, we'll be put under a heavy snow warning!
94. eaglesrock
2:36 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
TWC has the right idea for this storm.
93. edhanna
2:36 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I am quite suprised that the NWS has not placed us in any advisory as of yet. I guess they are waiting until tomorrow. I am figuring we'll be put in a snow advisory.
92. Zachary Labe
2:32 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
TWC even says 2-4inches of snow for harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
91. eaglesrock
2:26 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
You NWS is conservative. Tomorrow morning it will predict 2-4 inches if the GFS and some other models trend westward.
90. Zachary Labe
2:01 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
The 21z SREF is out and it shows .5inches of precipitation or more as far west as Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. Zachary Labe
2:24 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
eaglesrock- thats exactly what I think. Why do you think my nws says little to no snow accum?

Snowlover2010- I do not think lancaster will see 10inches, but you may see up to 6inches. I wonder why our local news weather is saying 1inch?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
88. eaglesrock
2:19 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Harrisburg looks good for 2-5 right now.
87. Snowlover2010
2:06 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Check out this site about the 00z NAM, http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~cws/vmw/, go from other model sites to nam precip type, click on accumulated precip type and hit 00z NAM. It shows over ten inches in Lancaster. What do you think about that? I like it!!!! I want over ten inches of snow no doubt about it!!!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
86. Zachary Labe
1:52 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I think this model is true. The northwest trend has started and still may continue a little bit. Yes I think you in Lancaster may see up to 6inches of snow.

Eaglesrock... With the new model trends how much snow do you think harrisburg will get.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
85. eaglesrock
2:12 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
0z NAM has 6-8 inches for me!
84. Snowlover2010
2:11 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
00z NAM up to 30hrs looks great with over 6 inches in Lancaster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What do you think about this. Is this a glitch or is this really showing me getting a SNOWSTORM!!!!!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
83. Zachary Labe
2:05 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
After the 0z NAM comes out which will be real soon. Then I will let you know your updated accumulation for lititz
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
82. Snowlover2010
2:00 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
So you are saying I could see 5 or 6 inches.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
81. Zachary Labe
1:38 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I am going to admit something.
For me the weather channel for all of winter has been the most accurate with snow totals. They are always right on. Lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
80. Snowlover2010
1:31 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
On the other side the Weather Channel says I could see between around 3 to 6 inches of snow!!!!!!!!! I hope I do.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
79. Zachary Labe
1:14 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Snowlover2010- I know, I saw, wonder what they see diferent than we do.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. Zachary Labe
1:27 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Well in some ways I agree with him and in other ways I do not.

Agree...
-I think there will not be snow amounts over 12inches.
-I think most areas are around 6-8inches.
-Also I mention in my blog too that the storm only lastes 8hrs.

Disagree...
-As a whole I think his amounts are too low.
-I do not think the coastal regions including the big cities see much snow.
-It seems like the models he is looking at are different than what the rest of us are seeing.
-Also with all the watches he needs to up his 3-6inches.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. Snowlover2010
1:18 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
This is what NWS says for Lititz "Periods of rain before 1am, then periods of snow. Low around 33. East wind around 7 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. " With a few flurries Monday.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
76. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I am not sure why the nws says little to none, because the models print out .25-.5inches for this storm in lancaster. This would mostly be snow. I am thinking 2-4inches for you in Lititz
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
75. cchamp6
1:20 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Why is Henry Marg. going with such low amounts? He isnt even in the neighborhood as to what everyone else is saying. My locals in Ct. are 8-14, 6-12 along with the NWS. I read his blog and I dont think he is looking at the same storm as I am. He is calling for an 8 hour storm, but its looking to me like something in the 12 hour range. I mean along the coast there will warmer air to cut down on amounts, but anywhere inland its gonna be plenty cold for snow. Any thoughts on why he is much lower than eveyone else?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
74. Snowlover2010
1:20 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
And why is the NWS still saying little to no snow accumulation in Lititz?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
73. Snowlover2010
1:17 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
So how much in Lancaster now?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
72. MDFirefighter
12:54 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
ok, i'll check later tonight. thanks for the update again!!! hopefully we'll see some snow down here
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
71. Zachary Labe
12:50 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
About 1hr...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
70. MDFirefighter
12:50 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Thanks for the update Blizzard. How long before your map?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
69. Zachary Labe
12:47 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I hope you had a great cruise.

I got a snow map coming and city accumulation list.

To quickly fill you in because you missed alot.
Well the models have done a terrible job with a coastal storm coming tomorrow night. We still do not know what is going to happen. Also looks like a massive snowstorm may affect the entire northeast for the 17th.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
68. MDFirefighter
12:34 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
I'm back Blizzard!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
67. Zachary Labe
9:52 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- I still think that we will see a slight shift to the west.

Snow accumulation map and city accumulations I will issue after the 18z model runs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
66. Zachary Labe
9:51 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- I am thinking 2-5inches of snow for you. Many models are showing .25-.5precipitation totals in our area. I do not know why nobody seems to be noticing this. The WRF, CMC, SREF show this.

The GFS and NGM show .1-.25inches of precipitation for our area.

The NAM show .1inches of precipitation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
65. PalmyraPunishment
9:45 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
im hoping the usual occurs with the storms, where it trends east, trends east, and then actually tracks west... i doubt it'll happen, but it would be nice for the storm to just track maybe 100 miles further west...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
64. edhanna
9:46 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Well snowlover, you might end up with a nice 1-3" inches if everything goes right.
63. edhanna
9:42 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Well, we'll see how it turns out.
Also, I'm considering the NAM an outlier. It hasn't preformed as well as the GFS in the past storms. Enjoy the storm.
62. Snowlover2010
9:36 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Less snow now for Lancaster?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
61. Zachary Labe
9:32 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
The NAM is the only model I have seen take the precipitation farthur east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. Zachary Labe
9:32 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
The WRF, GFS, SREF, and CMC print out good precipitation for eastern pennsylvania. I do not consider harrisburg in central pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. edhanna
9:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
I don't know about that Blizzard, models haven't really shown much of anything in Central PA other than flurries. If anything they have pushed a little farther east with the heaviest precip.
58. Zachary Labe
9:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Thanks, for some reason I have this feeling that this storm will move west making alot of people upset who want snow and do not get near as much as they hoped.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
57. eaglesrock
9:21 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
2-4 for you. 6-12 if the outlier ensemble members are correct, which has a 20% chance of happening.
56. Zachary Labe
9:16 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
eaglesrock- What do you think the chances are of the storm tracking farthur to the northwest? Also how much snow do you think is likely for my area, 10miles northeast of Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
55. eaglesrock
9:02 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
15z SREF ensembles show a NW trend! Bring on the snow!
54. PalmyraPunishment
8:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Any chance on this thing tracking further west and Central Pennsylvania picking up anything except a coating?

I've seen enough storms turn into a coating on the ground in the past 2 years to last me forever... this sucks
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
53. WeatherBobNut
8:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Good news for me here just south of Scranton Pa!!! Bring it on! Go PACKERS!!!!!!!!!
52. Zachary Labe
7:53 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
The 12z is farthur west. It will be interesting for areas in eastern Pennsylvania.
Snow map coming soon!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
51. Stormfront
4:59 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Your latest snow map could be right on the money, dean2007. Still has a lot to due with the actual track, but that map looks real close!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
50. dean2007
4:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
What do you think of my snow map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49. WeatherBobNut
4:21 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
yes I wouldn't be shocked to see the 12z further west....on, these damn models!!!!
48. dean2007
3:06 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Link
SNOW MAP UPDATED AFTER 12Z NAM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
47. cchamp6
2:55 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
It sounds like I am in the bulleye for some pretty good snow. Litchfield, CT in the northwestern hills. It doesnt sound like locals or NWS are very confident at all. We are 36-40 hours out, usually someone is pulling the trigger on a winter storm watch by now. If this storm is a go would we see winter storm warnings or heavy snow warning I wonder. Things got real dicey last evening. We had wet roads, then the temp. dropped to between 30-32 with freezing fog. I was dozing off to sleep when the pager went off at 1030 to go salt the roads. Several accidents due to the black ice. Oh well rest time today, sounds like the next week or so is going to be busy.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
46. dean2007
2:08 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
This is a rain changing to heavy snow quickly as the storm is going to be east of our area, Blizzard, not west, like it has been this winter. That's why its snow and not all rain. A northeast wind will keep the surface colder than what you think because the ocean is colder and the air is naturally colder from a northeast direction. All of the other storms featured this winter had a southeast wind, which is why it turned over to a heavy rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 96 - 46

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
72 °F
Scattered Clouds

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations