The Northeast Weather Blog...

It even appears the 18z NAM is coming into agreement with the coastal storm, I have a new blog posted Blizzard, so everyone can check it out.

Blizzard-I hope you're right on that snow line. We here in the Lehigh Valley always seem to be on that fence. Perhaps this storm will be the charm!

Indeed Jthal, this seems to be ending up like all the other storms with a mixed bag for us.

I hope we get some heavy snow here in Lancaster too.

I think eastern PA will get some snow, but will mix with rain, esp southeastern PA, including Philadelphia, PA. Its reall the same case as here on Cape Cod, Ma, althought we are a little more influenced by the marine layer. Also I want to point out that track is very crucial. You might think, yes we already know, but it is extremely important on Cape Cod, MA because there is a huge difference between a southeast wind off the warmer ocean water then a northeast wind where its off of colder water temps and originally from the north where it is naturally colder. I just wanted to point that out, thats the difference between all snow and and rain.

All models now show phasing, which is good. Bow it's who gets how much snow.

I'm sticking with my map from yesterday, but I would move the blue area about 20-40 miles eastward.

please.. lots of snow for Carlisle/Mechanisburg/Camp Hill/Harrisburg..

puh puh please..

Only for a short period of time as the ocean influences are felt right away so any snow really has no transition over to sleet or freezing rain, as most of the time it either rains or snow. My NWS station in taunton, MA has growing confidence in the storm:
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS WELL OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK...BUT FOR SOME REASON THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE BEFORE IT
TRENDS SLOWLY BACK WEST TOWARD THE OP RUN. DESPITE THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN TRACK AND TIMING...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS AS FAR AS HOW INTENSE THE LOW WILL BECOME BEFORE EXITING
OUR GENERAL REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE 12Z
GFS OP RUN AND FURTHER EAST AS IT SEEMS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

IN A NUTSHELL...WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...AND THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BUT IT/S NOT QUITE A LOCK YET. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
STARTING LATE SUNDAY AFTN OR EARLY EVENING FOR RAIN OR SNOW...THEN
WENT LIKELY FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MASS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRAVELS. THERE/S REALLY NO WAY TO KNOW THESE DETAILS UNTIL WE GET A
BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

IF THE 12Z OP GFS VERIFIES...SOMEONE WILL GET CLOBBERED WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SNOW...PROBABLY THE WORCESTER HILLS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...BEING
3 TO 4 DAYS OUT I EXPECT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THEREFORE
CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST...INCLUDING ANY SNOW AMOUNTS AND PRECIP
TYPES...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH ALL THIS SAID...CONFIDENCE IS
INDEED GROWING FOR A DECENT AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE STEADY PRECIP IS OVER AND DONE WITH SOMETIME LATE MON
MORNING OR MON AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH UPPER TROF PASSAGE.

The coast deserves a good snowstorm, we have had snow change to rain for the past five storms while the interior has seen over 10" of snow with each storm. I still think the 20th storm is ours.

Link
18z 90 hour GFS out shows the coastal storm further west, which I don't see happening, it should be further east then this run, its the still 18z whacky run, but the good news is it still has our coastal storm.

Blizzard, where is that other snow map you are talking about?

Sounds good blizzard. I think the jacpot area would be from Hartford, CT points east towards Cape Cod, MA and then northeast of that line. This is a coastal Southern and Northern New England event. MA to ME. 12"+

My snow map:

That seems reasonable eaglesrock. I would agree with that, but I think that heavy snow should move further east, if the current model tracks hold. Check my blog to see my map.

Do you think we will see heavy snow or a mix in Lititz(about 10 miles north of Lancaster)?

A lot of people are saying little or no snow is possible. What do you think? Are you going to downgrade too? I want a nice snowstorm, but most peoples confidence sounds low.

Ok sounds good. I was just getting worried because some guys on acuuweather are saying we are getting HYPED up on nothing.

After looking at the NAM do you think I will be mixed with rain and snow in Lititz, and how much is possible? Sorry about all the questions, but I am just getting sooo excited.

Just updated my blog. Check it out.

Blizzard-will this one be all snow for Lehigh Valley?

doe anyone have thoughts on snow ratios yet?

tracking west?!?! i swear to god if this thing gives me 3-6 inches of snow (closer to 6) i'll be singing hallelujah

just read Wishcaster Margusity's blog and he feels confident about his snow map issued yesterday.. Philadelphia to Boston getting 6-10 inches, further west not much...

this really sucks haha.

This is a rain changing to heavy snow quickly as the storm is going to be east of our area, Blizzard, not west, like it has been this winter. That's why its snow and not all rain. A northeast wind will keep the surface colder than what you think because the ocean is colder and the air is naturally colder from a northeast direction. All of the other storms featured this winter had a southeast wind, which is why it turned over to a heavy rain.

It sounds like I am in the bulleye for some pretty good snow. Litchfield, CT in the northwestern hills. It doesnt sound like locals or NWS are very confident at all. We are 36-40 hours out, usually someone is pulling the trigger on a winter storm watch by now. If this storm is a go would we see winter storm warnings or heavy snow warning I wonder. Things got real dicey last evening. We had wet roads, then the temp. dropped to between 30-32 with freezing fog. I was dozing off to sleep when the pager went off at 1030 to go salt the roads. Several accidents due to the black ice. Oh well rest time today, sounds like the next week or so is going to be busy.

Link
SNOW MAP UPDATED AFTER 12Z NAM.

yes I wouldn't be shocked to see the 12z further west....on, these damn models!!!!

What do you think of my snow map?

Your latest snow map could be right on the money, dean2007. Still has a lot to due with the actual track, but that map looks real close!