Final Snow Map and City Accumulation List...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008

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Thoughts on January 14th storm...
Good Afternoon! Well this current storm is a dud for many areas of Pennsylvania. I like my snow map, but I highly doubt now that southern pennsylvania sees any snow accumulation. Also I do not think that New England sees a much snow as was forecast. But let us all keep our hope up for the next storm on Thursday.

Also I know I have talked much about the western part of Pennsylvania, because of the coastal storm. So with the clipper coming through do not be surprised to see c-3inches of snow all the way as far east as harrisburg.

This blog is also for anybody's opinion or forecast for this storm. Also if anyone has any questions, I will be happy to answer them. I will continue to update this blog for this event as it grows closer. Have a great day!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Washington, DC to Wilmington, DE to Philadelphia, PA to Trenton, NJ to New York City, New York.
-Anybody to 30miles either side of the line will see a mix. Furthur north than that and you will see snow and furthur south you will see all rain. Also I do not think the coastlines will see much snow. Maybe just a few inches.

Storm impacts...
1. 8hr storm at most locations
2. snow bands may set up inland with high snow rates
3. high winds in areas of Maine and Cape Cod, MA
4. not too large area of sleet or frz rain
5. Wet snow that may cause power outages

Final Snow Map...
Final Snow Map...
The red line is where the mix/snow line might end up. Anybody northwest of that line should be all snow.
"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- C-2inches
Baltimore, MD- C-2inches
Washington, DC- C-1inch
Wilmington, DE- C-2inches
Dover, DE- C-1inch
Cape May, NJ- Coating
Trenton, NJ- 2-4inches
New York City, NY- 2-5inches
Poughkeepsie, NY- 4-7inches
Binghamton, NY- 3-7inches
Albany, NY- 2-4inches
Hartford, CT- 5-9inches
Concord, NH- 4-8inches
Providence, RI- 4-6inches
Worcester, MA- 5-10inches, locally 12inches
Boston, MA- 5-8inches, locally 10inches
Nantucket, MA- C-2inches
Portland, ME- 4-8inches
Bangor, ME- 4-8inches
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Well the models shifted east and more compact with the precipitation. Overall I think this was pretty poor forecasting from almost everyone. I blame the models though, lol, as they have been back and forth with this storm for weeks. I do not think we will see many 12inch amounts like currently forecasted. Alot of people, especially on other blogs did alot of wishcasting that created this big hype about this small coastal storm. We are all snow starved. Lets up we see some good snow soon, widespread.

More updates are coming all the time so stay tuned...
Have a great evening!!!

Here is the 18z GFS...
18z GFS...

Here is the 18z GFS precipitation amounts...
18z GFS precip. amounts...

Here is the 18z NAM...
18z NAM...

After the storm...
The next storm I am going to forecast is the possible coastal storm for Thursday. I plan on doing a better job forecasting that storm than I did this storm. This is all a learning experience. Sometimes the weather pulls tricks of its own, that forecasters cannot see.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the coastal storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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146. cburk2524
7:06 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
38 and raining here.
145. cburk2524
7:06 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
lol...
144. Zachary Labe
1:59 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
No snow here. All a dud!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
143. Winterstormsblog
1:58 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
sup blizzard.....
is it snowing yet?
snowing over here with less than an inch so far this evening....
NWS says 2-4 inches tommorow and tommorow night for me....(Lake effect snow)
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
142. Zachary Labe
8:00 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Stormfront- I 100% agree with you. For all we know this storm could move much farthur east with little precip. anywhere or farthur west with precip. much fathur inland. Who knows? The model runs keep going back and forth.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
141. Stormfront
8:17 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
No one should be believing any of the models with this storm. It's going to have a mind of it's own. Could be a bust, but then again, could fool everyone! We will all know by this time tomorrow!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
140. edhanna
7:22 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Sorry snowlover, looks like you get less than an inch.
139. Zachary Labe
6:58 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Well the 12z GFS has taken the storm farthur east leaving alot of pennsylvania out of the precipitation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
138. Snowlover2010
4:55 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
So how much can I get then in Lancaster.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
137. Stormfront
5:11 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Hey Snowlover, the problem where you are is as the storm is getting cranked up, it wwill also be pulling off to the east, taking it's heavier snows with it. You actually might pick up a little extra from the Monday afternoon event, because you'll have cold air in place by then.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
136. Snowlover2010
4:49 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Lancaster is just about 30 miles southeast of Harrisburg, PA.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
135. dean2007
4:24 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
I don't know. I need a map for Lancaster, PA.
134. Snowlover2010
4:40 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
And what about Lancaster, PA?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
133. dean2007
4:23 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Does anyone think Cape Cod, MA would see an advisory posted this afternoon? Because I do.
132. jthal57
3:41 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
NWS has finally issued snow advisory for Lehigh Valley and parts of Eastern PA for 2-5" with Additional 1-2" on Monday. I just posted it on my blog.
131. Snowlover2010
3:40 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
12z GFS goes too far east. I think the storm will track further wes.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
130. Zachary Labe
3:28 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
New York City's HEAVY SNOW WARNING is only for 4-8inches.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
129. Snowlover2010
3:22 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
So stromfront what do you think about Lancaster, PA?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
128. Zachary Labe
3:19 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
The only main difference is in New York City's accumulation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
127. Stormfront
3:19 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
It's going to be interesting to see who has the more accurate snowfall map. Blizzard and Dean are about 12 inches apart.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
126. Zachary Labe
3:14 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
I think Worcestor will be the winner with the most snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
125. dean2007
2:39 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
I saw that cburk. I believe a further eastward track may be correct, however why would the models weaken the storm?
124. cburk2524
2:47 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
06 z GFS shows 1.75-2" qpf for southeastern ma!
123. Zachary Labe
2:45 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Some new model runs are coming in for the 12z...

SREF-shifted farthar east
NGM-low pressure is much weaker and tracks farthur east
NAM-a little farthur east and weaker

I still think this low pressure will end up tracking farthur west.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
122. Zachary Labe
2:12 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
That does not mean I am right. I could be wrong. But I just have this feeling that this will be a good snowstorm. I saw this storm 1.5weeks ago and have been forecasting it ever since.

Also bad news, the NAM has moved a little to the east with the 12z run. But the NAM has been back and forth with the entire storm with each new model run.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
121. Snowlover2010
1:48 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Cool you are like the only person left that says Lancaster could see 3-6 inches.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
120. Zachary Labe
2:07 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Snowlover2010- Yes still 3-6inches, it could be more if you do not see rain at the beginning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
119. Zachary Labe
2:07 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- I watched that too, I think we are going to see a light-moderate snowstorm, that will throw alot of people off guard.

It is already colder this morning than they said, and once clouds move in I doubt it gets to 40. I am thinking 2-4inches for Carlisle.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
118. Snowlover2010
1:52 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Still 3-6 here in Lancaster?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
117. PalmyraPunishment
2:03 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
so, where are we at, guys? I just watched an animation that Margusity put up of the storm and it looks like it tracks pretty far west.

No advisories or anything in the Harrisburg Metroplex... still would be nice to see a little snow...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
116. Zachary Labe
1:34 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
MDFirefighter- Sorry, but it looks like another rain storm, while 30miles to your north there will be light to moderate accumualations of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
115. Zachary Labe
1:12 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
Good morning everyone! stormday! Well I am very surprised there are no advisorys out. Also got to 23degrees here north of harrisburg. Our forecast low was 32. The westward trend appears to be continuing. The 0z EURO has no finally come around to moving farthur west.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
114. jthal57
1:22 PM GMT on January 13, 2008
are you guys surprised there aren't any watches out yet for Lehigh Valley and other parts of eastern PA?
113. dean2007
5:27 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Hopefully not!
112. Snowlover2010
3:44 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Hey good news, the 00z GFS does move the storm about 20 miles further west(540 line south of PA but going through New Jersey) and keeps it fairly strong. Hopefully this trend continues.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
111. MDFirefighter
3:36 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
surprise surprise :\
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
110. edhanna
3:35 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Indeed, that would be nice MD. Looks like you end up with rain for this one. : (
109. MDFirefighter
3:33 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
i just want to see all snow. whether we get 2 inches or 10 inches, i don't care. just something that accumulates and remains all snow.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
108. Snowlover2010
3:31 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
In far east PA NAM shows 15inches. I don't know but it seems it is indicating a storm that is more powerful, tracks further west than we thought, and brings in some colder air. Check it out.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
107. edhanna
3:29 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
10 inches seems to excessive to me. Maybe up to 6 inches in some far eastern parts.
106. Snowlover2010
3:17 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Why not?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
105. edhanna
3:12 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Not at all.
104. Snowlover2010
3:04 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
So do you agree with the 00z NAM giving Eastern PA over 10inches of snow?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
103. Zachary Labe
2:51 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
LOL!!!
I am still sticking with weatherunderground as my primary blog site. People here have great ideas on storms with great blogs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
102. edhanna
2:50 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Is it just me, or are we all on the Accuweather forums right now? Lol.
101. Snowlover2010
2:48 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
What do you guys think with the NAM saying over 10inches for me here in Lancaster?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
100. edhanna
2:46 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Indeed, I wouldn't say that's out of the question at all.
99. Zachary Labe
2:44 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
TWC says 4-6inches for allentown.

That seems reasonable.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
98. Zachary Labe
2:40 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
edhanna- I am too. LOL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
97. edhanna
2:34 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Lol, we'll see, but I am favoring TWC oddly enough.
96. Zachary Labe
2:37 AM GMT on January 13, 2008
Yes, I think so too. My NWS still says little to no accumulation for Harrisburg. But based on the new nam and gfs I think we will see 2-5inches of snow. (Advisory level)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140

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