A Simple Question

By: Birthmark , 2:34 AM GMT on February 05, 2014

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I have one simple question for denialist everywhere – why has the earth been so warm since 1998?

Denialists had been going on and on about the lack of statistically significant warming since 1998. Of course, a lack of statistically significant warming isn't the same as a lack of warming. The earth has warmed since 1998. The question is why has the earth warmed?

Let's begin by looking at the sun.
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Figure 1 - Solar cycles 22,23, and 24

We can see in figure 1 above that since the peak of solar cycle 23 solar activity is plunged. The current maximum of solar cycle 24 is, frankly, pathetic. If the sun is a major player in climate, the Earth's temperature should be much cooler than it was at the maximum of solar cycle 24. But that's not the case. The Earth has continued warming.

Perhaps we can learn something from looking at the oceans. Of course, the big player in the oceans is El Niño/La Niña.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Figure 2 - Multivariate ENSO Index

The huge El Niño of 1998 sticks out like a sore thumb. Since that time we've seen much shallower El Niño's and many La Niña's. In fact, there is a slight majority of La Niña was in neutral years since 1998. So this is another factor that should cooled the earth.

Let's take a look at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).


Figure 3 - JISAO-PDO index with trendline

We can see that there's been a downward trend in the PDO since 1998. Yet again, here's another factor that should of caused the earth to cool.

But the earth hasn't cooled. Instead, it has warmed since 1998. Figure 4 below shows the UAH temperature data set along with the trend line since 1998.

Figure 4 -UAH temperature data from 1998 to present with trendline

It clearly it clearly has warmed. It should be remembered that UAH is a satellite data set. Therefore, neither the urban heat island effect, nor siting issues are of any relevance.

So I'll go back to the question. I first asked him the question that needs to be answered by denialists: why hasn't the earth cooled? What is keeping the earth so warm since 1998?

EDIT 4/4/2014 -- I replaced Figure 4 with the correct graph for the UAH temperature data set since 1998. I had previously posted the UAH-land data set. (And no one noticed!)

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63. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:17 PM GMT on March 05, 2014
Birthmark has created a new entry.
62. BaltimoreBrian
3:58 AM GMT on March 04, 2014
War Among the Economists (another class outline from Paul Krugman's ECON 348 course.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
61. BaltimoreBrian
3:20 AM GMT on February 25, 2014
Some more presentations by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman from his Princeton ECON 348 course.

Retirement


The Panic

Bailout

The Stimulus (added 2/25)

Course WWS 594 Trying to Help Workers (added 2/25)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
60. FLwolverine
11:09 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Quoting 54. Birthmark:

Not at all strange, or no more than 10% strange?
;-)

And in other news, I see WU deleted my comment about ... ah...... leaving. I was hiking around in the cypress swamp and didn't even know I got a little ban! But, you know, I was only echoing a time honored political tradition - that I first learned about in connection with Southeast Asa - "declare victory and withdraw". But I thought that sounded a little too suggestive for a science blog....... Maybe admin is too young to remember that? Do you suppose I should go to them and explain?

Or not.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
59. BaltimoreBrian
5:10 AM GMT on February 14, 2014
Dr. Paul Krugman continues putting his classroom lecture outlines on line.

ECON 348 Class 4 Paul Krugman

Health care: Paul Krugman
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
58. Birthmark
4:31 PM GMT on February 13, 2014
Quoting 57. ricderr:
hey birth...where did you grab that pdo chart?


http://www.woodfortrees.org/

Specifically, here.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
57. ricderr
4:28 PM GMT on February 13, 2014
hey birth...where did you grab that pdo chart?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21438
56. JohnLonergan
11:58 PM GMT on February 12, 2014
Happy Bithday Charles Darwin:

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3185
55. Cloudyinthewest
5:21 AM GMT on February 12, 2014
Hello Birthmark,

This is Dave (DaveFive) from San Jose, CA. I have relocated to my vacation place in Lyon County, Nevada where I can watch the snow fall. I will continue to keep weather updates on the California drought as well as Nevada.

Dave
Member Since: December 2, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 78
54. Birthmark
4:27 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
Quoting 53. FLwolverine:
Um, no.

;-)

Not at all strange, or no more than 10% strange?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
53. FLwolverine
12:58 AM GMT on February 10, 2014
Quoting 52. Birthmark:

Meh. I have had worse and better weekends. This one's unremarkable.

What is remarkable is how the denialists have completely failed to show up in this thread and tell me why we haven't cooled precipitously in the last decade.

Strange, no?
Um, no.

;-)
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
52. Birthmark
3:07 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Quoting 51. FLwolverine:
Greetings, Birthmark. Your blog was slipping too far on the chart, so I thought I would help out. Hope you're having a good weekend.

Meh. I have had worse and better weekends. This one's unremarkable.

What is remarkable is how the denialists have completely failed to show up in this thread and tell me why we haven't cooled precipitously in the last decade.

Strange, no?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
51. FLwolverine
3:28 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Greetings, Birthmark. Your blog was slipping too far on the chart, so I thought I would help out. Hope you're having a good weekend.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
50. JohnLonergan
6:51 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
Tamino is taking on concern trolls today;

Concern Trolls

I’m on a roll. I’ve been hitting the fake “skeptics” where they live by showing just how stupid is the stupid [stuff] they’ve been saying.

How can I tell that the fake skeptics are feeling the heat? Simple: the concern trolls are coming out of the woodwork.


You know the type. The kind who will proceed to lecture me about how the data are so noisy that “Everything else really has too much noise to put forth anything but a tentative suggestion of what is happening overall.” About sea ice data, no less. The detailed analysis on which such claims are based? It usually amounts to “My own view of the data.”

Then they end by telling me to skip the insults. ...

...As for the “fawning uncritical thinkers” who frequent this habitat, I urge you remember this maxim:

All trolls are wrong … but some trolls are useful.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3185
49. JohnLonergan
6:44 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 47. Birthmark:

Credentials are less important than being right. When Prof. Curry gets around to being right about something, do be kind enough to point it out.

Like Spencer, Curry argues with the science that she herself does. lol


Curry argues with her own science as Eli pointed out, so
arguing with somebody else's is expected. She's just being consistently inconsistent.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3185
48. Birthmark
6:32 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 46. FLwolverine:
Yoboi, You're the only one trying to put Hoerling into the denier's camp. We've discussed that also, and debunked Spencer ad nauseum.

You really should change your handle to "twistnshout" because that's all you're doing these days - twisting what other people say and then blathering on about it.

Arguing about people instead of science is a great way to stay confused...and to confuse others. ;)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
47. Birthmark
6:30 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 43. yoboi:
Well....Well... Curry, Spencer, Hoerling and others let's just call them crazy ha....do you see a trend???? I do the alarmist say the very people they so often quote are radical skeptics....NOAA/NASA credentials do we accept them??????

Credentials are less important than being right. When Prof. Curry gets around to being right about something, do be kind enough to point it out.

Like Spencer, Curry argues with the science that she herself does. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
46. FLwolverine
5:54 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Yoboi, You're the only one trying to put Hoerling into the denier's camp. We've discussed that also, and debunked Spencer ad nauseum.

You really should change your handle to "twistnshout" because that's all you're doing these days - twisting what other people say and then blathering on about it.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
44. FLwolverine
5:35 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Give it a rest, yoboi. We've had days of discussing Curry and her abdication of science. You are really just wasting time and space.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
40. FLwolverine
5:03 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
37 and 39 - sorry, guys, you can't play if you don't get it.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
38. AlwaysThinkin
3:27 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 35. etxwx:



Hmmmm....you may be on to something here. Further research shows Dr. Martha had this theory on the effects of global warming. Coincidence? I don't think so...

Edited to add: Holy Cow! It's even more of a hidden message than we suspected...here they are in a automobile factory!!


Good catch on both (BTW really like that Mustang assembly line one, could only imagine driving a new 1965 Mustang convertible off the assembly line)! I'm betting that dastardly Dozier Holland and Holland song writing group put them up to this while AL GORE! was off in Vietnam....something something something...he came back made the government invest in the internet global warming....conspiracy!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
36. FLwolverine
12:11 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Hmph! No new research for almost six hours. That means I'm right!

Fresca?
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
35. etxwx
6:23 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 29. AlwaysThinkin:


This did it too. Martha and the Vandellas, part of the Warmist conspiracy!



Hmmmm....you may be on to something here. Further research shows Dr. Martha had this theory on the effects of global warming. Coincidence? I don't think so...

Edited to add: Holy Cow! It's even more of a hidden message than we suspected...here they are in a automobile factory!!
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
34. Birthmark
6:18 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 33. FLwolverine:
But...but...but....Judith Curry!

Well, maybe. We can't be sure. Therefore, there is no Judith Curry.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
33. FLwolverine
6:14 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 31. etxwx:


Aha! I see you agree...because Al Gore is fat and therefore his inner core radiates a lot of heat!

But...but...but....Judith Curry!
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
32. Patrap
4:55 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
31. etxwx
4:29 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 30. FLwolverine:

And in response to your "research", all I can say is Al Gore!

;-)


Aha! I see you agree...because Al Gore is fat and therefore his inner core radiates a lot of heat!

Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
30. FLwolverine
4:14 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 28. etxwx:

Research shows that space wombats only account for 10% and meerkats maybe another 5%. The remainder is accounted for by this and we've known that since the 60's.
YouTube says that video is banned in my country (Florida, I guess) because of copyright issues. But I found another copy. But even if I hadn't watched it (especially if I hadn't watched it - you see how that works?) I would know you are wrong. Wombat contribution is only down during WC24 (just ending) because the wombats were depressed - koalas and pandas were getting all the good publicity. But specially trained therapists from Canada (where they're used to dealing with inferiority complexes) have been dispatched, and the wombats are expected to be much more active during upcoming WC25.

Meerkats of course are quite complicated so we can't predict their activity or contribution.

And in response to your "research", all I can say is Al Gore!

;-)
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2331
29. AlwaysThinkin
4:02 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 28. etxwx:

Research shows that space wombats only account for 10% and meerkats maybe another 5%. The remainder is accounted for by this and we've known that since the 60's.


This did it too. Martha and the Vandellas, part of the Warmist conspiracy!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
28. etxwx
3:21 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 12. FLwolverine:


BTW, in answer to your simple question, I'm going with alien space wombats. Or maybe meerkats.

Research shows that space wombats only account for 10% and meerkats maybe another 5%. The remainder is accounted for by this and we've known that since the 60's.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
27. Birthmark
11:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 24. yoboi:





we don't have a 30 year warming trend........this includes surface temps or the missing heat in the ocean....



Link

Your link goes to the NOAA main page, so it fails to support your claim.

The NOAA land-ocean temperature trend for 1984-2013 is 0.166 ±0.054 °C/decade (2σ)

The NOAA land only temperature trend for 1984-2013 is a staggering 0.302 ±0.085 °C/decade (2σ)

I don't know where you get your information, but you should probably think about looking elsewhere.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
26. schwankmoe
6:16 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Deniers are full of hot air. That alone has to be responsible for a good amount of the increase.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
25. BaltimoreBrian
5:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
I blame dragons.

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
23. Birthmark
4:31 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 20. yoboi:



So you are saying to establish sound science we only need to tilt the scale with 51 % certainty ??????

Nope, not what I said at all. Your inability to comprehend serves you poorly again.

We never have all of the data since the future hasn't occurred. We also never know if we have all of the relevant data since we don't know everything about anything...and probably never will.

But that's less of a problem than one might think. All we have to do is have enough relevant data to make a statement about something that we can test. This is why climate is defined as 30 years. It takes that long to be able to tell a trend from random noise (weather) with reliability. Then we can test our hypothesis against further observation or through other means to see if the idea holds up.

In the case of climate change we have sufficient reason to have confidence that any remaining factors affecting climate that we haven't discovered are either very small or canceled out by other unknown factors. IOW, our current explanation does the job acceptably well overall. Refinements will be made as new information becomes available. That is the strength of science.

There will be new things discovered that are relevant, but the chances of them fundamentally changing greenhouse gas theory is negligible. The IPCC's latest report states that we're the cause of the current warming with a 95% certainty. The IPCC, as usual, is being very conservative.

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
22. Patrap
4:26 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Did anthony watts make them walk this way?,

talk diz way?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
19. Birthmark
4:06 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 17. tramp96:
Naga

The more dept. you have the more it takes to service it
There is no right or left just common sense.
Link

Please re-post that on the previous blog, tramp. That's the one I want to use for politics. I want to discuss the topic in the OP in this one.

Thanks
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
18. Birthmark
4:04 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 14. yoboi:




The same can be said concerning AGW....Do you really think we have gathered " All The Data" ?????????

All the data isn't necessary.

It should also be pointed out that no one is drawing conclusions from not-yet-gathered-data...except you.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
16. Birthmark
4:03 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 13. yoboi:

A quick look at your cartoon will demonstrate it is wrong about SC 24. There is little to no hope that it is right about SC 25.

But you still haven't answered the question of why the Earth hasn't cooled. Look at all those graphs! All those things should be forcing temperature down. Yet here we are with warming.

Real data beats imaginary data every time.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469

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About Birthmark

This blog will be for the discussion of whatever takes my fancy at any given time. Primarily, that will be Anthropogenic Global Warming/Climate Change

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