The Global Warming, Science, Skepticism, and More Blog

I Ain't Buying It

By: Birthmark, 11:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2013

I Ain't Buyin' It!

A lot has been made in denialist and media circles about the so-called hiatus in global warming. I ain't buying that there is a hiatus, though there has been a slight slowdown in the upward trend --very slight.

I'll start by posting something I've posted on both Dr. Masters' and Dr. Rood's blogs. I'll simply post the data for the time periods 1980-1997 and 1999-2012. I originally did this because I was curious to see what would the data look like without 1998. I wasn't that surprised by the results. In graphical form, it looks like this:


There is simply no large hiatus in the warming trend if the "freak" El-Nino year of 1998 is left out. Here are the numbers:

GISTEMP
1980-1997 = 0.100 ±0.133 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.098 ±0.156 C/decade

NOAA
1980-1997 = 0.102 ±0.114 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.064 ±0.146 C/decade

HADCRUT4
1980-1997 = 0.109 ±0.116 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.078 ±0.148 C/decade

RSS
1980-1997 = 0.071 ±0.187 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.038 ±0.239 C/decade

UAH
1980-1997 = 0.031 ±0.197 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.152 ±0.239 C/decade

------------------------
Land Only data
------------------------

BEST
1980-1997 = 0.161 ±0.286 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.171 ±0.354 C/decade

NOAA (land only)
1980-1997 = 0.155 ±0.187 C/decade
1999-2013 = 0.138 ±0.252 C/decade

Any change in the trend is pretty minimal.

That's the temperature record, but what happens if we remove the natural factors which cause the noise in the data and look only at the anthropogenic signal, ala Foster and Rahmstorf (2011)?

Adjusted Temperature Trends 1998-2012

GISS 0.212 ±0.097 °C/decade
NCDC 0.153 ±0.081 °C/decade
CRU 0.117 ±0.075 °C/decade
RSS 0.118 ±0.086 °C/decade
UAH 0.176 ±0.099 °C/decade

When corrected for ENSO, solar variability, and volcanic forcing the upward trend continues, even when beginning in 1998. What's more, in all five data sets the trend is statistically significant.

Hiatus in global warming? I ain't buying it!

Neither should you.

Updated: 12:10 AM GMT on September 24, 2013

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About Birthmark

This blog will be for the discussion of whatever takes my fancy at any given time. Primarily, that will be Anthropogenic Global Warming/Climate Change

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