Ben's Blog

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND KEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 589...

VALID 262028Z - 262130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 589 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING OVER SRN FL...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
ROBUST AT THIS TIME...BUT CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE PRIOR TO EXPIRATION OF
WW 589 AT 21Z. A MEET ME CALL WILL INITIATED SOON TO DISCUSS WHETHER
OR NOT WW 589 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF KEY
WEST FL AND IS SLOWLY MOVING IN A GENERAL WNWLY DIRECTION. SEE
LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN RELATED TO THE OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...RECENT
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TIP
OF FL WHERE A ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING HAS SHIFTED NWD. NEW
RAINBANDS ARE ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OFF THE SERN FL
COAST WITHIN ZONE OF MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. VWP
DATA FROM MIAMI SHOW ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL SELY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM WITH
0-1 KM HELICITY AOB 100 M2/S2 BASED ON OBSERVED STORM MOTION.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATER HELICITY VALUES OVER THE SRN
INTERIOR PART OF THE PENINSULA WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS EXIST.


WHILE OVERALL TORNADO RISK IS NOT ROBUST...CURRENT THINKING IS BEST
THREAT NEXT 2-3 HOURS MAY EXIST AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SERN
FL LIFTS NWD AND INTERACTS WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 08/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26418182 27038160 27408071 27128023 26248009 25638019
24998061 24738119 24848149 25508128 26418182

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270244Z - 270445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THAT COULD POSSIBLY REQUIRE
ONE.

DISCUSSION...WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT PROGRESSES WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS HAVE VEERED
SOME...TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING TO 50+ KT IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. THIS HAS COINCIDED WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...AS REFLECTED BY
EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF ISAAC...ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF MIAMI...INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO THE MORE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE INLAND ADVECTION
OF A MORE MOIST/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH. IF THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
CONTINUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/27/2012


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 27158244 27358161 27138024 26478007 25618016 25488045
25498112 26048177 26468190 27158244

TORNADO WATCH 590 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081 -085-086-093-
097-099-103-105-111-115-271300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0590.120827T0325Z-120827T1300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE
OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA ST. LUCIE


AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-853-856-2713 00-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0590.120827T0325Z-120827T1300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

BISCAYNE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...


TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF SARASOTA
FLORIDA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE SE FL CST. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING IN LOW LVL CONFLUENCE BAND ARCING NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. ISSAC. ANOTHER BAND
MAY EVOLVE LATER TNGT/EARLY MON ALONG THE SW FL CST. WITH ISAAC
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WNW OVERNIGHT FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE
SW FL CST...AN AXIS OF INCREASING RICH THETA-E MAY SPREAD NWWD
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LVL SHEAR...SETUP MAY FOSTER ISOLD TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CONFLUENCE BANDS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 590...

VALID 271155Z - 271330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 590 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO...PRIND WW
MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...GIVEN MRGL/CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SCHEDULED 13Z
EXPIRATION. CONVECTIVE MODE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OVER SOME PARTS OF THIS REGION
THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT PRECIP PLUME OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL
HAS CONTINUED TO REINFORCE COLD POOL OVER THAT AREA...REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT PRECIP AND
RELATED HEAVY-RAIN POTENTIAL. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
ASSOCIATED/WAVY BOUNDARY NEAR LINE FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO ABOUT
20 ENE VRB...SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN PALM BEACH COUNTY...SRN/ERN HENDRY
COUNTY...NEAR APF...THEN NWWD OVER GULF. IN NEAR TERM...TORNADO
POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT MAY BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INVOF SRN AND ERN PORTION OF COLD-POOL
BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY MAY REPRESENT NARROW SHEAR/BUOYANCY OVERLAP
ARCHETYPE...AND ITS BAROCLINICITY MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
MID-LATE MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS IN RELATIVE CLEAR SLOT
OVER S FL. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED ON COOL
SIDE...WITH CAPE ON WARM SIDE...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT OVER REGION. ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION FORMING S OF BOUNDARY AND CROSSING ITS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY/SRH...OFFERING TRANSIENT RISK OF MESOCYCLONIC
INTENSIFICATION.

STILL...LACK OF ROBUST LIFT OUTSIDE DENSELY
CONCENTRATED/QUASI-LINEAR PRECIP BANDS HAS PRECLUDED SUBSTANTIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...TRANSLATION OF TC CENTER AWAY
FROM REGION SHOULD YIELD NET WEAKENING OF REGIONAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WITH TIME. CELL-RELATIVE HODOGRAPHS ALREADY HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY
SMALL AT EYW/MIA BASED ON VWP DATA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2012


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271554Z - 271800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL TO NWRN FL PENINSULA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCH PER
HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN TWO DISTINCTIVE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF
ISAAC AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP N/NWWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TO NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TWO WELL DEFINED OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS ATTENDANT TO TS ISAAC. THESE BANDS...ALSO DETECTED
BY AN INCREASE AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING DATA...EXTENDED NWD FROM
PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES TO ORANGE AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES...WHILE THE SECOND BAND WAS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE THE ERN FL
COAST /85 ENE VRB TO NEAR ST JOHNS COUNTY/. THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES IS ATTENDANT TO THE INLAND CONVECTIVE BAND
WHERE A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE MLB WSR-88D ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES
AND IN OSCEOLA/ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES PRIMARILY PER MCO
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR. AN INCREASING TREND IN ROTATIONAL TRACKS
PER WDSSII HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED IN THIS LATTER REGION.

STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NNW WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF
VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 4 KM AGL ARE RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 150-200 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/27/2012


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NWRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271828Z - 272000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF LOW
LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE AT THIS TIME FOR DEEP UPDRAFTS FAVORING LONGER-LIVED
STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BOTH AT SPC AND LOCAL
WFO/S FOR ANY INCREASED TORNADO THREAT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
POTENTIAL NEED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSES AND TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WWD TO INVOF SRQ. ELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES LOCATED N OF THIS
BOUNDARY VEERING TO SLY AT 2-3 KM AGL PER TBW WSR-88D VAD ARE
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 30
KT. RADAR DATA INDICATED CLOUD TOPS ARE RANGING FROM 20-30
KFT...WHILE LIGHTNING DATA HAS NOT DETECTED ANY CG STRIKES WITH THE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING NNWWD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 F AND SOME SURFACE HEATING HAVE BOOSTED MLCAPE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...A TORNADO WATCH WOULD NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NWRN FL PENINSULA.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/27/2012


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 945 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA TO 20 MILES EAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED THIS
MORNING ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF ISAAC WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 11040.

ALC003-053-097-290000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0591.120828T1445Z-120829T0000Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN ESCAMBIA MOBILE


FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-290000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0591.120828T1445Z-120829T0000Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON


LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-117-290 000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0591.120828T1445Z-120829T0000Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON


MSC039-045-047-059-109-131-290000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0591.120828T1445Z-120829T0000Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GEORGE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER STONE


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-630-650-655 -750-290000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0591.120828T1445Z-120829T0000Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...


...MEAD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 10 MILES NORTH OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 591...

DISCUSSION...W-E ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM S OF PIB TO S OF
GZH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY NWD WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE OVERLAP
OF THIS INSTABILITY WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH T.C. ISAAC...THE THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 10040.


. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COVINGTON FORREST JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARION


...MEAD