A Decent Cold Front in July?

By: BDAwx , 12:50 AM GMT on July 15, 2011

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A decent cold front for July passed this evening bringing light, scattered showers mainly to the northern half of the island (Sandys, Pembroke, northern Devonshire, Hamilton, northern Smith's, and St. George's). I doubt more than 1/3 of an inch was recorded anywhere. Bermuda is still in an extreme drought.

The cold front's effect may have a pleasant facade, but when you look deeper at it, this may have been more bad than good. Although we get a break from 100F heat indices daily, with temperatures dropping about 5F and dew points 5-10F, the drier air combined with July sun angle will help to dry out the soil and vegetation worsening our already extreme drought, and reversing the effects of any rain that has fallen thus far. The drought is about to worsen; definitely from an agricultural perspective, and possibly from a hydrological one as trees become more dependent on ground water, and water in our tanks evaporates at a higher rate due to the drier air, and lowered soil moisture content.

From a meteorological standpoint, it is very rare for a cold front to make it through our area this time of year and bring a northerly breeze. Such a phenomenon occurs about once or twice per summer, although it is common for frontal boundaries to stall in the area and provide almost daily rainfall.

Is there more rain in the forecast for the next five days? Our friendly GFS shows 0.25-0.50" of rain over the next 120 hours on the 18UTC run of the model, while NAM is in agreement also showing 0.25-0.50" of rain. However, I fear that most of that has already passed in the form of the front this evening.
The GFS offers a solution where the front stalls just to our south. If the front happens to drift northwards as a warm front or stalls more the north, we could get in on some of its rains. The NAM has the front stalling even farther to the south than the GFS. Meanwhile the Bermuda Weather Service has clear skies ahead, until Monday when a chance for showers returns to the scene.

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1. DDR
10:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2011
Looks like you got some decent rains over the last 2 days?
I see 2 inches measured at north shore.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1693

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About BDAwx

Generally talk about the weather in Bermuda. In winter - winter storms; In summer - Hurricanes; severe weather in the area all year.

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