Hurricane Katia: Possible analogue storms

By: AstroHurricane001 , 1:37 PM GMT on August 31, 2011

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Tropical storm Katia formed last night in the Cape Verde region. As of 9:30 am EDT August 31, she is close to hurricane strength.

Examining historical patterns

In past seasons, a strong hurricane has often followed behind another one that affected the US East coast. The following tracks may provide some analogy to Katia's future trajectory. Here are the criteria below.

The first storm hit either the Bahamas, North Carolina or the American Northeast as a category one or stronger hurricane, either by direct landfall or very close pass. The storm must have caused at least $USD 4 billion (4,000,000,000) in damages, in 2011 dollars (inflation-adjusted).

Similar to Katia's predicted track, the second storm must have met at least four of the following five criteria:
-A Cape Verde long-track hurricane forming east of 50°W.
-Reached at least category three strength on SSHS.
-Formed within ten days (maximum 15 d) of the formation of the first storm [as TS - 2nd storm only; difference denotes TD formations].
-Track is generally east-to-west.
-The storm became a hurricane in the Main Development Region (10°-20°N, 20°-85°W).

Track map colors: light blue TS, light yellow C1, light yellow-orange C2, light orange C3, orange C4, red C5. In any year, retired storms go first.

Track maps

The following storm tracks were detected:

Hurricane Ivan [retired], Sep 2004 (El Nino Modoki) - following behind cat. 4 Frances [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 8 days:



Hurricane Karl, Sep 2004 (El Nino Modoki) - following behind cat. 3 Jeanne [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 3 days:



Hurricane Gert, Sep 1999 (La Nina) - following behind cat. 4 Floyd [retired], which hit the Bahamas and North Carolina, by 4 days:



Hurricane Hortense [retired], Sep 1996 (La Nina) - following behind cat. 3 Fran [retired], which hit North Carolina, by 11 days:



Hurricane Frederic [retired], Aug-Sep 1979 (neutral ENSO), - following behind cat. 5 David [retired], which hit the Bahamas, by 4 days:



_____

Postscript

Remember, though, that even a hurricane like Igor of 2010 can be dangerous, taking a track missing the Lesser Antilles but hitting Bermuda and Newfoundland both at cat. 1, and getting retired:



For anyone unfamiliar, a hurricane name gets "retired" when an affected country requests it and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) deems it to be sufficiently destructive or deadly. However, not everyone is always happy with the results.

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2. AstroHurricane001
10:48 PM GMT on December 30, 2011
One thing I do on the Weather Underground is post links, which incidentally has not been done for a while. Here's one showing updates for the Gulf Stream. It'll be interesting to see what effects tropical and non-tropical cyclones have, if any, on eddy generation in the ocean current.

Link

Recently I've had technical trouble posting a new blog entry. Some topics I worked on included the 2011 Goderich tornado, the first Ontario F3 in fifteen years, and Comet Lovejoy, which reached perihelion this December.

I've attempted to post a link resource collection and do frequent blogs on atmospheric, oceanic and geological patterns in the past - that's one of my goals for 2012.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
1. AstroHurricane001
1:20 PM GMT on September 10, 2011
This past entry discussed patterns in storms vs. ENSO. Luckily, Katia has not affected shore but can still bring dangerous rip currents to the US East Coast and Canada.

An earthquake struck the Canadian West Coast yesterday, and I hope to do an entry examining quake risk there.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

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