Hurricane Patricia: The 200 MPH Beast

By: AldreteMichael, 10:51 AM GMT on October 23, 2015

NONONONONO! What's going on!? Hurricane Patricia just hit 200 mile
per hour SUSTAINED winds. We're not talking about the gusts--those are
at a whopping 245 miles per hour--we're talking constant winds.
And it is not done. Weather Channel has this thing strengthening to 205
MPH in the forecast, then it making landfall in Mexico with Category 5
winds (hopefully not with those 200+ mile per hour winds).
Here is this beautiful monster:


Updated: 10:52 AM GMT on October 23, 2015

The NHC: Handling Complex Joaquin Well

By: AldreteMichael, 12:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2015

My initial reaction when I saw 6 models forecasting a direct hit on the U.S., yet the NHC showing such a dramatic out to sea solution still, was that of disbelief.

What I wasn't taking into account when I made my last blog was that the ECMWF model, tied for most reliable model, was taking this out to sea at the time (and to may knowledge, was consistantly doing so). Nor was I taking into account the persistance (or lack thereof] of model solutions from ru...

Tropical Storm Joaquin: Why is the Official NHC Forecast Ignoring the Models?

By: AldreteMichael, 3:15 AM GMT on September 30, 2015

Hey. All 6 of the models on the wunderground track models page have Joaquin making U.S. landfall, yet the official track forecast barely includes the U.S. making landfall within it's already unusually large cone of uncertainty! Take a look at these:

I took these two images at the same time (which for some reason, you have to click on "View Full Blog Entry" to see the images), and taking one look at this, I have to ask: why does the...

Updated: 3:28 AM GMT on September 30, 2015

Hurricane Odile: Dark History in the Making?

By: AldreteMichael, 1:02 AM GMT on September 15, 2014

As Hurricane Odile's center continues to inch ever closer to Baja California, warning flags are being raised! [Next image courtesy of]

Here are a series of 3 images (all taken from that show Hurricane Odile's current track forecast, ocean temperatures around Odile, and lastly, the anomaly in such ocean temperature.

If you notice, Odile's track may have it moving over ...

Updated: 1:04 AM GMT on September 15, 2014

Hurricane Odile: Interesting Times Ahead

By: AldreteMichael, 7:37 AM GMT on September 14, 2014

Okay. Sounds like Southern California is finally going to get some rain, but it looks like it's going to take a major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin pulling on an "invest" over northeastern Mexico into us to make that happen! Way to go nature for giving us rain in the most interesting (albeit what in the world is wrong with you!?) way possible.

Site used to help me find this information:

Updated: 7:45 AM GMT on September 14, 2014

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About AldreteMichael

I've learned so much about weather from this site, and I wish to contribute knowledge back. Please feel free to respond, as your interest is welcome!