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By: 1900hurricane , 9:45 PM GMT on March 22, 2013

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Hello everybody. As some of you are aware, I haven't posted a new blog entry in over a year and a half. The reasons for this are various, but this by no means indicates a loss of passion for meteorology. Hopefully this summer, I'll be able to get back around to doing actual blog entries, but in the meantime, feel free to follow me on twitter! Because I can easily access twitter from my phone and because of its brevity, most of my thoughts on meteorology have been going there. Often my posts on twitter mirror my posting on Dr. Jeff Master's blog, but not always.

Occasionally I will post about something other than meteorology, but most of my personal life stuff goes on my facebook page so have no fear about being constantly bombarded by the mundane things of my everyday life. I can be found by searching twitter for @1900hurricane, or you can follow the link below.

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane

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20. 1900hurricane
2:44 AM GMT on January 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

...Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast this afternoon...

A very cold start to the morning is forecast, with lows generally in
the teens across West Central Texas. Abundant sunshine should allow
temperatures this afternoon to rebound into the mid 40s to lower
50s. These temperatures are still about 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. A lee trough will develop across eastern Colorado, while
surface high pressure shifts into Louisiana this afternoon. This
will result in south winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph. A low level
jet of 30 to 45 knots will develop overnight, helping to keep winds
in the 10 to 20 mph range across much of the area tonight. The south
winds should help to keep temperatures up somewhat, especially
across the Big Country. I stayed a bit above guidance, with lows
ranging from the upper 20s across the Interstate 10 corridor, to the
lower to mid 30s across the Big Country.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

We`ll be in a fairly active weather pattern throughout the long-term
portion of the forecast. The work-week will end on a high note, with
well-above normal temperatures but we`ll see the mercury take a dive
as we move through the weekend into next week.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will transition more southwesterly through
Friday. The attendant lee cyclogenesis will increase southwest winds
on Thursday into the range of 15-25 mph (sustained) with gusts
potentially exceeding 35 mph. See the fire weather impacts discussed
in detail below. Temps will make a considerable jump from today`s
highs, topping out into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday
afternoon. Winds are expected to stay up Thursday night, promoting a
mixed boundary layer and min temps primarily in the 40s.

Winds will begin to subside on Friday as the gradient relaxes with
the approach of a cold front. The GFS continues to bring this front
well into the CWA, stalling near the Colorado River. The NAM, ECMWF,
and GEM all stall this front north of I-20 Friday afternoon, which
is the direction I`m leaning. Temperatures will continue the warming
trend, with most areas in the 70s. A few locations will possibly
reach the 80 degree mark. This cold front is forecast to dive south
Friday night and early Saturday. The biggest impact will be felt
across the Big Country where temps are expected to remain in the
50s. Farther south, a later arrival of the cooler air should allow
temps to warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees.

This airmass will be rather shallow and southeast winds are progged
to return at 850 mb by Saturday night. This will favor the
development of a warm advection regime over the cold dome. We`ll see
increasing low-level cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday with
rain showers possible as the environment moistens. This precip,
enhanced cloud cover, and northeast winds (cold advection) will keep
temps in the 40s across most of the area. The stronger isentropic
ascent will shift east Sunday night but the next wave will be moving
in on its heels.

This system will bring increasing rain chances to West Central TX
beginning Monday and lasting through Tuesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS
are in good agreement regarding this setup and are offering generous
cold-season QPF values, especially Monday night into Tuesday. Both
models are also in agreement that the pattern for next week favors
cold temperatures. I`ve trended temps down Monday-Wednesday but my
gut says that the forecast is still too warm.

Regarding the precipitation, the current forecast will carry rain
showers as the predominant precip type, although I did include a
mixture of rain/snow Tuesday night as the system departs. We`ll have
to keep an eye on the effect of wet-bulbing and the potential for
wintry precip. The ECMWF is going bonkers during this period,
producing heavy snow across much of the South Plains and West
Central TX. Run total snowfall amounts from the 00z ECMWF exceed 12
inches just to our northwest, with a good 2-6" across our CWA. That
said, if we got as much snow as the models liked to advertise, our
meager 3.5" annual average snowfall would be a magnitude of order
higher. The ECMWF soundings are supportive of snow while the GFS
maintains a warm layer above 850 mb through Tuesday afternoon. For
now, I`ll view this run as mere eye candy and write it off as an
outlier. We`ll be keeping an eye on this, however, as the models
attain better sampling of responsible features.

Johnson
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
19. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:48 AM GMT on October 22, 2013
1900hurricane has created a new entry.
18. GeorgiaStormz
7:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2013
Go Texas A&M... beat ALABAMA


And lose later in the season....so UGA can pass you.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
17. 1900hurricane
5:44 PM GMT on September 14, 2013
I feel like this forecast discussion needs to be archived in some special way.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131001
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SE TX
THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS N TX
INTO THE ARKLATEX. REAL COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE OZARKS
ACROSS N ARKANSAS INTO TENN. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 00Z FOR 500MB
HAS A RATHER MESSY RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA DOWN
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE COLD FRONT SLIDING
INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OVERALL THINK TODAY WILL BE CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF SE TX.
THERE MAY BE A FEW ISO STORMS MAINLY FROM CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GFS/NAM DEVELOP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIP WATER VALUES
LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION IN THE 00Z-06Z SAT TIME FRAME MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO CONROE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT BUT THINK THE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISO THAN
SCT. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT COLLEGE STATION ABOUT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT YELL BUT THINK
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY.

COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NE OF THE AREA SO STILL EXPECT THERE
TO BE A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THINK
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. GFS/NAM STILL
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK
CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TEXAS A&M/ALABAMA FOOTBALL
GAME BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THROUGH THE DAY. HAZARDS
IF ANY FROM THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHILE ALL EYES WILL BE ON KYLE FIELD SATURDAY...WE WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR TD 10 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST FORECAST FROM
NHC TAKES THE TD TOWARDS TAMPICO MEXICO WITH LANDFALL JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT OR 06Z MONDAY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 00Z GFS HAS TRACKED TD 10 OR WHAT SHOULD BE TS INGRID A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE TD/TS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
SEEMS THE TREND MAY BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO GULF COAST. AS SUCH THE GFS IS BRINING AN INFLUX OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SE TX ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA MON/TUE WITH IT
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WILL KEEP
30/40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL FALL DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER S TX CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AS IT MOVES UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARDS DEL RIO. CLOUD COVER
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S OR CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS. UNFORTUNATELY MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE A CHANCE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.

OTHER MAIN IMPACTS FROM TD 10 WILL BE HIGHER SEAS AND ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SWELLS TO DEVELOP DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND LONG FETCH. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDES OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. WEEKEND BEACH GOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE AWARE OF
ROUGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS.

39

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 10 WILL SLOWLY START TO DRIFT NORTH THEN WESTWARD ALLOWING
FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL FLIRT WITH CAUTION CRITERIA
TODAY AND MAY NEED ADVISORIES ON SATURDAY. ELEVATED TIDES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND APPROACH 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL
ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 74 93 74 92 / 10 20 20 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 79 89 79 88 / 10 20 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...23
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
16. Barefootontherocks
4:12 PM GMT on May 10, 2013
Happy belated birthday, 19.
Did you wish for rain?

Statement as of 9:31 PM CDT on May 09, 2013

... Record rainfall set at College Station...

As of 930 PM... College Station received 3.16 inches of rain. This is a new daily rainfall record besting the previous record of 2.10 inches of rain established back in 1936.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18742
15. wxchaser97
12:30 PM GMT on May 01, 2013
Happy birthday 1900!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
14. beell
12:28 PM GMT on May 01, 2013


Happy Birthday, 1900.
College of DuPage offers up a birthday present in the form of clickable point-forecast soundings for the RAP, NAM, and GFS. With a decent interface.

weather.cod.edu/forecast
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
13. shoreacres
12:14 AM GMT on May 01, 2013
Hey! Happy Birthday! I hope you spend some time in the sun before that front rolls through!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
12. StAugustineFL
12:07 AM GMT on May 01, 2013
Happy Birthday 1900! Are you legal now?
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 804
11. 1900hurricane
12:03 AM GMT on May 01, 2013
It is now my birthday in Zulu time.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
10. 1900hurricane
8:00 PM GMT on April 07, 2013
Why must winter tease us still? Go the frick away!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
9. 1900hurricane
7:46 PM GMT on April 04, 2013
Wundermap Link Test 1

Wundermap Link Test 2
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
8. 1900hurricane
10:36 PM GMT on April 02, 2013
I posted this in Dr. Master's blog earlier, but I figured I'd post it here too.

Speaking of features on the mesoscale, the GFS (particularly the 06Z) continually depicts the development of an apparent Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) tonight over the SW edge of the Balconies Escarpment and tracks it east across the southern Hill Country and into the SETX costal plain.



06Z GFS 30 hrs 700 mb heights, temps, relative humidity, and vertical velocity (yeah, it's a pretty busy chart) valid 12Z tomorrow (or 7:00 am CDT). Evidence of an apparent MCV can be seen over the SE Hill Country with the lower heights (closed contour of 306 dam and low of 305 dam), colder temps (closed isotherm of 3*C indicates the development of a mid-level cold pool), maxed relative humidity (saturated atmosphere), and extremely high spike of vertical velocity (hard to see on this map, but perhaps a little easier seen on this one, where it is well off the charts), which is indicative of very strong updrafts associated with an organized storm complex. This ends up leaving a progged band of very high rainfall totals across south-central Texas.



And just for fun, a nice forecast sounding from the progged MCV:



Even though the GFS has been adamant in showing this feature the past several runs, the NAM has been just as adamant in not showing it. It'll be interesting to see which model forecast is closest to verifying. If the MCV does verify though, it'll probably be a high-impact event.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
7. hurricanes2018
9:09 PM GMT on April 02, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52348
6. 1900hurricane
3:58 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
If someone gave me the funding, I'd go out and launch the balloons personally! I know it's not the only sounding hole in the country, but it happens to be the one that I'm right in the middle of.

According to the Community Participation box on the blog page, this is my 10,000th post. Only took seven and a half years to get this far!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
5. beell
11:26 AM GMT on March 27, 2013
I vote for College Station, lol.

Heck, we may be lucky to hold on to what we have. Maybe a bit of a scare tactic by the NWS to bring some light to the money issue-but still...

Weather Balloons Seen at Risk of Being Grounded by U.S. Cuts
By Kathleen Miller - Mar 5, 2013 11:01 PM CT/boomberg.com

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
4. 1900hurricane
9:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2013
Random thought, but someone really needs to fix the huge sounding hole in Texas...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
3. beell
2:35 PM GMT on March 24, 2013
Stalking!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
2. shoreacres
10:57 PM GMT on March 22, 2013
Followed!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
1. 1900hurricane
10:28 PM GMT on March 22, 2013
Wow, it's nice to have a nice clean blog for the first time in forever!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669

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About 1900hurricane

Texas A&M meteorology major; hardcore weather enthusiast. Class of 2013 (+ a victory lap or two). My raw passion for extreme weather is hard to match.m@