Texas Weather Blog

By: 1900hurricane , 1:06 AM GMT on February 12, 2011

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From now on, I will be trying to run a Texas weather blog between my schoolwork at Texas A&M University. Not only is it something that I have wanted to do for a while, but I think it will also help me with my forecasting classes, so why not? Anyway, after a very active two weeks of winter weather across the entire state, the next two weeks or so look to be complete polar opposite. Beginning now and continuing through the weekend, a well-deserved warm-up will commence. As opposed to the toughness that brought the wintry disturbances previously, stout 500 mb ridging will be dominating the state synoptically, which will allow storm systems to slide by to the north of the state for the upcoming week. The ridging, as forecasted by the 12Z ECMWF, can be seen in the graphic below:



This ridging will cause sinking air aloft and suppress cloud development, resulting in generally clear skies and allowing for optimal radiational heating. Even with the current modified arctic airmass in place, temperatures should warm up during the day very nicely with highs generally in the 60s across most of the state with even a few 70 degree highs are possible, effectively removing all existing snowcover across the state in a couple of days. However, this airmass still remains very dry, so the same clear skies that allowed ideal radiational heating during the day swill also result in optimal radiational cooling overnight, so the next few mornings could still be a bit on the cool side, with temps still dropping below freezing over the northern half of the state and below 40*F for most of the southern half. However, as the weekend closes and the new week begins, the greatly modified arctic airmass will give way to a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The return flow will cause a rise in dewpoints and cause an end to the ideal radiational cooling overnight. This return flow coupled with the continued 500 mb ridging will give rise to a period of above average temperatures, which is shown very well with the CPC temperature outlooks:



As mentioned above, the 500 mb ridging will also divert storm tracks north of the state, causing dry conditions for the foreseeable future, which can once again be illustrated by a CPC graphic:



By the end of next week, 70s will be a commonplace across the state, with even some 80s over the southern portions of the state.










***LONG TERM***

Briefly looking into the extended range, the signs are out there for more of the same, with 500 mb riding slowly sliding east but still firmly in control of the state:



Based upon this, the next week could be a repeat of this upcoming one, with warm and dry conditions. However beyond that, change may be on the horizon. Near the end of it's forecast cycle for the past couple of runs, the GFS has shown some of the troughiness from the west beginning to move east once again. Keep in mind that this is two plus weeks out so there is still many things that can change, but with a forecast dominated by 500 mb riding and fair conditions, it may be something to keep an eye on down the road.




Like my previous blog, most of my updates will be posted as they come in the comments section, unless there were big changes in the forecast. In that case, I may update the existing blog or put a completely new one up. And as always, questions, comments and criticisms are welcome!

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30. shoreacres
11:20 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
Howdy, 1900 - and happy Texas Independence Day!
I just couldn't let the day pass without dropping by with a greeting!

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
29. beell
1:53 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Evening, 1900. You made be go look at the busted rain forecast for N TX.

A workable explaination below?

Maybe Dallas just got grazed enough by the cooler mid-level temps associated with the trough overspreading the EML/cap last night. Add gulf moisture pooling along the frontal/dry line boundary and DFW got surprised. 3-4° C was probably cool enough to allow convection.

700mb RUC from 9PM last night. Would not swear it was exactly like this but maybe pretty close. 3, 4, & 8° C isotherms labeled. Even cooler 700mb temps to the west. Trough axis more or less from the OK Panhandle to SE New Mexico/far W TX

Those cooler 700mb temps never got close to us. We stayed capped.

Photobucket
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
28. 1900hurricane
12:50 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Colder times ahead???

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
27. 1900hurricane
3:37 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
Failed forecast for northern FWD!



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
26. 1900hurricane
3:35 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
TXC375-280500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
AMARILLO POTTER RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
836 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
AMARILLO...POTTER...RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE NORTHEAST AMARILLO FIRE WILL SHIFT DIRECTIONS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION WILL THREATEN THE
AREAS BETWEEN STATE HIGHWAY 136 AND INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF POTTER COUNTY BETWEEN 930 PM AND 1100 PM. RESIDENTS LOCATED IN
THIS AREA ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR QUICK ACTION IF THIS FIRE
THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
25. 1900hurricane
3:03 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
Winds have gusted to nearly 70 mph in Amarillo today.



Those winds, coupled with the very low humidities have made it a very dangerous fire situation.



ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271635

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

VALID 271700Z - 281200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN NM...WRN
TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...CNTRL TX...NWRN/S-CNTRL
OK...FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...

...SRN PLAINS...
PREVIOUS FORECAST CONDITIONS AND REASONING REMAIN WELL ON-TRACK WITH
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO CRITICAL/EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATIONS PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS/MODEL GUIDANCE. ADDED PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK TO
CRITICAL AS THE NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF/ETA-KF
CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF WITH THE DRYLINE BULGING THROUGH CNTRL OK
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. REMOVED PORTIONS OF SERN CO/SWRN KS BASED
ON CURRENT/FORECAST SURFACE LOW POSITION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONFINED TO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS.

LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM/ WERE AROUND
8 TO 15 DEG F TOO COOL COMPARED TO 16Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS LENDS FURTHER CREDENCE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES /FROM 3 TO 9 PERCENT/ BEING JUXTAPOSED WITH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA DURING MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 02/27/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES WILL EXIST TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. A POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OBSERVED ON 0730Z WV IMAGERY OVER SRN CA WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
EWD...OVERSPREADING A STRONG MIDLEVEL JET /AOA 120 MPH AT 500 MB/
FROM SRN NM NEWD INTO WRN OK BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST...AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL SHARPEN
OVER CNTRL OK/TX. THE RAPIDLY EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE
WITH THE DRYLINE BY EVENING...WITH A FIRE THREAT CONTINUING OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/AFTER
DARK. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ENEWD TO THE OZARK
PLATEAU...WITH THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD TO THE MS
VALLEY AND THE WRN GULF.

...FAR ERN NM...WRN TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WAS OBSERVED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER NM AND
WRN TX...WITH PWAT GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS...AND MOISTURE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 400 MB. THE
PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR -5 F WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AS THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
ERODES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BY NOON...FALLING FURTHER THEREAFTER WITH WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMMON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE...TO LOWER/MID 80S
FARTHER S OVER SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF THE EXTREME IN SERN NM WILL FALL BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...THOUGH LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH VALUES
IN THE TEENS STILL POSSIBLE BY EVENING DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FARTHER E...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/AFTER DARK ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IN PORTIONS
OF WRN TX/OK.

REGARDING WINDS...FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS AOA 60 MPH AS DEEP MIXING/STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOW 70-80 MPH JET WINDS AT 700 MB TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. INITIALLY SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT DIRECTION THOUGH
THE DAY...BECOMING WSWLY BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WLY BY EARLY
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE EXTREME IN THE OK AND
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO NWLY BY THIS TIME. WINDS NEAR 20
MPH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...WHILE THE NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT.

...ERN NM...CNTRL TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS...SERN CO...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL...HIGH-END CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO COOL BY MID AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AREA...ALLOWING A SLOW RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR SERN CO/SWRN KS...STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
REMAIN S OF THE AREA...BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF FIRE
WEATHER THREAT BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTING SEWD LEADS TO
QUICKLY COOLING TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY MAY THREATEN
ANY ONGOING FIRES. FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL IN WRN
OK/TX AND CNTRL TX...CURRENT DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PROGRESS EWD AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 TO
30 MPH. A RESURGENCE IN DRY AIR WILL OCCUR AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
CONVERGES WITH THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...AND COULD ALLOW A THREAT
OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING/AFTER DARK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
24. 1900hurricane
2:47 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
Quite an obvious dryline moving through the state!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
23. 1900hurricane
1:17 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...DAMAGING WINDS MAY IMPACT MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TODAY...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TODAY.
A BAND OF VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHILE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. EXTREME WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES FOR MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. THESE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
PICK UP SOME DUST. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST
COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ057>059-074-080-258-280230-
/O.NEW.KMAF.DS.W.0001.110227T1823Z-110228T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110228T0300Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT DAVIS...MARFA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
1223 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 /1123 AM MST SUN FEB 27 2011/

...DUST STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A DUST
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST
/8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING.

* WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 TO 65
MPH WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 55 TO 70 MPH...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.

* IMPACTS: HIGH WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...FENCES...AND WEAK STRUCTURES. LOOSE OBJECTS
MAY BECOME AIRBORNE. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ROADS RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH.
BLOWING DUST COULD RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD RESTRICTIONS OF
VISIBILITY NEAR 1 MILE...WITH LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A DUST STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERELY LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH BLOWING DUST. TRAVEL COULD BECOME EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. PERSONS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
22. 1900hurricane
11:50 PM GMT on February 27, 2011
It's strange seeing that much dust over Texas...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
21. 1900hurricane
11:47 PM GMT on February 27, 2011
Yeah, here is that one:

TXC345-280000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
MOTLEY COUNTY JUDGE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MOTLEY
COUNTY JUDGE.

RESIDENTS OF THE CITY OF MATADOR SHOULD EVACUATE TO THE MOTLEY
COUNTY SCHOOL. A WILDFIRE IS APPROACHING THE CITY OF MATADOR FROM THE
WEST AND POSES A DANGER TO THE RESIDENTS IN THE CITY. ALSO...U S
HIGHWAY 62 AND 70 HAS BEEN CLOSED WEST OF THE CITY OF MATADOR.

$$

JORDAN

Not fun at the best and very dangerous at the worst out to the west!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
20. Barefootontherocks
11:42 PM GMT on February 27, 2011
Hi 19,
Oh, I hate that, and I don't complain about weather. Just reminds me of the Dust Bowl.

Fire Warning up at Matador TX a little while ago. Evacuating the town. Out of Lubbock office.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17433
19. 1900hurricane
11:38 PM GMT on February 27, 2011
A dust storm is even showing up on radar!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
18. 1900hurricane
11:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2011
Wow, Fire Warnings in the Panhandle!


TXC381-280245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING...CORRECTED
AMARILLO/POTTER/RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
AMARILLO...POTTER AND RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SEVERAL WILDFIRES ARE THREATENING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: RICHLAND
ACRES AND RANCH ACRES...AND THEN ALSO FOR TIMBERCREEK CANYON...
PALISADES...TANGLE AIRE...AND LAKE TANGLEWOOD. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT
RESIDENTS EVACUATE THE RIVER FALLS AREA OF RANDALL COUNTY. RESIDENTS
SHOULD EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

RESIDENTS EVACUATING THE WILDFIRES IN THE WILLOW CREEK AREA SHOULD
REPORT TO THE RECEIVING POINT AT THE PLEASANT VALLEY METHODIST CHURCH
AT 316 VALLEY. THE RECEIVING POINT FOR THOSE RESIDENTS EVACUATING
FROM THE SOUTH WILDFIRES IS THE COWBOY CHURCH AT WASHINGTON STREET
AND LOOP 335...HOLLYWOOD ROAD.

$$

TAB
TXC233-280015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BORGER
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

A WILDFIRE IS THREATENING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CITY OF BORGER. THE
BORGER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ORDERED THE RESIDENTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CITY OF BORGER TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

$$

SCHNEIDER
TXC065-375-381-272345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
232 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE AMARILLO
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

A WILDFIRE IS THREATENING NORTHEAST POTTER COUNTY AND A MANDATORY
EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR: MESILLA PARK...EL RANCHO...AND WEBB
ROAD IN NORTHEAST POTTER COUNTY. PEOPLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
17. 1900hurricane
8:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2011
A narrow and slightly notched line of thunderstorms is moving into my area. They look below severe criteria, but could still produce some strong winds.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
16. 1900hurricane
4:44 PM GMT on February 24, 2011
Quite a big chunk of moisture headed up into that storm system!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
15. 1900hurricane
7:17 PM GMT on February 21, 2011
Quoting Aroundtheworld23:


Nice weather your having!

Sure is! I'm enjoying it, although as an extreme weather lover, it's getting kinda boring.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
13. 1900hurricane
9:02 PM GMT on February 20, 2011
81*F here now, the warmest day of the year thus far, and there still is a potential hour or two of heating left.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
12. 1900hurricane
8:36 PM GMT on February 20, 2011


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200947
SPC AC 200947

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA
COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP
TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/20/2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
11. 1900hurricane
8:17 PM GMT on February 19, 2011
It also hit 80*F for the first time this year yesterday, and we look to top that agin today! It is quite nice here, as is so with much of the state. The temp graph from this month at CLL is quite interesting to look at!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
10. 1900hurricane
8:15 PM GMT on February 19, 2011
Well, this may be the most intersting thing in the area for a while!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE...AND APPARENTLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP
BEGINNING AROUND TUE/D4 AS THE MODELS TRY TO HANDLE AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CA AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK SWD...OR RETROGRADE...ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
AND WRN CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD WSWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH/LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE/D4. BEHIND THIS NE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ERN STATES WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFFSHORE.

BY WED/D5...THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN STATES...AND A
RETURN FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH TX BY WED AFTERNOON.

FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA
COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH
SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A
MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED/D5 INTO THU/D6 FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY OUTLOOK AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/19/2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
9. 1900hurricane
4:28 PM GMT on February 18, 2011
Dear Blog:

I did not abandon you. And now that my crazy test week is now over, I should hopefully spend some more time here. Thanks and Gig 'Em.

1900hurricane
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
8. beell
3:24 AM GMT on February 14, 2011
Wow, a Texas weather blog.Why didn't I think of that? You picked a nice, slow week to start. Does not look like a lot to interfere with class.

Maybe time to work on the fog forecasting skills?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
7. NYCvort
4:21 AM GMT on February 13, 2011
Nice blog; good luck with your classes!
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
6. 1900hurricane
1:26 AM GMT on February 13, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks great!

Thanks man! I actually partially modeled it off of your blog.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
5. Zachary Labe
11:31 PM GMT on February 12, 2011
Looks great!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
4. 1900hurricane
10:37 PM GMT on February 12, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COMFORTABLY WARM AND DRY DAY WITH AREAWIDE AFTERNOON INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S...LOWER 50S ALONG COAST.
AS RIDGING EXPANDS FURTHER EAST...ONSHORE BREEZES HAVE AWAKENED
AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARILY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTERIOR LOW 20 DEW POINTS
(NEAR 30F COAST) UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY MID-WEEK. THE MIXING
DOWN OF MID-LEVEL SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN CHECK...
OR PROVIDE A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES EARLY THIS WEEK. AS UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERN MEXICO RIDGING NOSES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS...1000-5H THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN BY ANOTHER 12
DAM THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...A WARMING AND MORE MOIST COLUMN WILL
MEAN MUCH MORE MILD WEATHER THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

IF SOUTHERLIES TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MONDAY.
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE REGULATOR FOR MAX
TEMPS REACHING 80F...BUT AFTER THESE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AT THE RATE WE ARE BETTER ACCUSTOMED TO IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MORNING MINIMUMS WARMING FROM NEAR-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AVERAGE LOW TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY`S SUNRISE. AN APPROACHING WEAK
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL INCREASE POPS FROM NIL TO ABOUT
20...ATTM SOUNDINGS APPEAR WAY TOO STABLE (AND DRY) TO MENTION
NOTHING MORE THAN JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE FORMATION OF
DENSE FOG. INCREASING COASTAL DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER MID 40F SHELF WATER TEMPS FROM MONDAY ONWARD STRONGLY SUGGESTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG. ENSEMBLE MILDLY HINTING AT FOG OCCURRENCE
...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ONE WOULD LIKE IN MENTIONING FOG WITHIN
GRIDS. LEANING TOWARDS THE IDEA THAT MORNING MARITIME DENSE FOG IS
ENVIABLE...UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PROVIDING THE CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WOULD INHIBIT DAYTIME DISPERSION. BEST TO WAIT UNTIL
FOG OCCURS BEFORE EXTENDING DENSE SEA FOG INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 31
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
3. EmmyRose
4:47 AM GMT on February 12, 2011
I'm going to throw Mother Nature a parade this week.
We're going into the 70s.
So far we've sustained 10 days out of 11 with Hard Freeze warnings...be gone!
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
2. shoreacres
4:28 AM GMT on February 12, 2011
Hi, Ryan,

I see you broke a record yesterday!

Statement as of 02:19 am CST on February 11, 2011

Record low temperature set at College Station
A record low temperature of 20 degrees was set at College Station yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 22 set in 1933.


If you're going to get cold, you might as well break records!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
1. 1900hurricane
1:09 AM GMT on February 12, 2011
Just a heads up, my attendance may be a bit spotty this weekend and upcoming week. The first round of tests are really kicking into high gear. I'm slated for five next week...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553

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About 1900hurricane

Texas A&M meteorology major; hardcore weather enthusiast. Class of 2013 (+ a victory lap or two). My raw passion for extreme weather is hard to match.m@