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Winter Weather in Texas

Posted by: 1900hurricane, 10:08 PM GMT on January 27, 2011

Although the possible event is still five days out, there is increasing confidence in a possible winter weather event for at least part of Texas. Currently, several of the forecast models are forecasting a Blue Norther sweep the state early next week, dropping temperatures to well below average values. During this same time period, a disturbance could be crossing the state. While there is not a great consensus on how this disturbance is going to act, there is a general consensus that it will bring precipitation to the state. The interesting and tricky part of the forecast is how the disturbance and the Blue Norther will interact. A faster frontal passage and/or a slower disturbance will increase the likelihood of of a winter weather type event for a good portion of the state, with how the disturbance behaves also playing a significant role. As the event draws closer, expect this blog to be updated with more information in the comments section.

NWS Fort Worth

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S. THE
WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE
HAVENT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS WARM SINCE LATE DECEMBER. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION MAY PICK
UP AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA...ONCE AGAIN OPENING UP THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS. A PIECE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX
IN NE CANADA WILL BREAK OFF AND ENTER THE NORTHERN US BY
MONDAY...SENDING A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A VERY COLD
AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT DO
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO ITS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS
FAR OUT...MODELS TEND TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SHALLOW DEPTH
OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES AND ONE NEEDS TO PAY CLOSER ATTENTION TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND BASE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
PAST EXPERIENCES. CURRENT 850 TEMPS IN THE SOURCE REGION ARE IN
THE NEGATIVE 24C RANGE AND ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS
IN SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR -20C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST ARCTIC
AIRMASS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER WHEN WE SAW PROLONGED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO WARM WITH THE AIRMASS AND WILL STICK CLOSER
TO THE COLDER CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND WHAT IF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. THERE
ARE BASICALLY TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW THIS
MAY PLAY OUT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH AND PROG A TUESDAY ARRIVAL. THIS ALLOWS AMPLE TIME
FOR THE COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE LIFT ARRIVES AND BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET PROG A MUCH STRONGER
PIECE OF THE POLAR LOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...OUR PACIFIC PIECE OF ENERGY
WOULD QUICKLY BE SWEPT UP AROUND THE BIGGER SYSTEM AND ALL THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WOULD BE GONE BEFORE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES. THE PRECIP WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID...ENDING BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATTER
GROUP OF MODELS IS NOT USUALLY THE PREFERRED SET WHEN WE MAKE A
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EVEN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AND HOW SIMILAR THIS GROUP IS...SOME WEIGHT
DEFINITELY IS GIVEN TO THIS DATA SET.

FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
THE POSSIBILITIES OF WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...VERY
COLD AIR SEEMS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS...WILL
WE SEE PRECIP AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WERE TO FALL...WE FEEL THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
AND THAT THE SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE AN OPEN ENDED TROUGH...SNOW
WILL NOT BE LIKELY INITIALLY. IF PRECIP WERE TO LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE A FINAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
EVERYTHING SHUTS OFF.

NWS Abilene

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION REMAINS LOW.

.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WITH A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...A LITTLE TRICKY ON HOW LOW THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF
LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL...HAVE MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND GOING WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THAT AREA. CARRYING 30-35 ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY WHERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.

A STRONG TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH
WARMING AT 850 MB AND WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING
INTO TEXAS...OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. EXPECT A PRESENCE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL OUT TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD
BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON THE WARMUP. GOING
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70-73 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...
FIRST OF 2 SHORTWAVES PASS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. MODELS APPEAR TO
BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST...SO HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE POSITION OF THE ECMWF ALLOWS MORE OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...ECMWF
HAS SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 850MB READINGS IN THE -6C TO
-12C RANGE. GFS 850MB TEMPS AT THE SAME TIME RANGE FROM +10C TO
-3C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS LEANING TOWARDS
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. SUSPECT THAT NEITHER MODEL IS
CORRECT...AND WILL COMBINE SOME OF EACH INTO A FIRST GUESS
FORECAST. GIVEN THE THREAT OF ICE...WILL MENTION RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND HOPE LATER RUNS CAN
NARROW THE FOCUS INTO SOMETHING MORE MANAGEABLE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE GFS DROPS A VERY COLD
AIR MASS INTO PLACE.

NWS Houston/Galveston

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE...AND QUITE INTERESTING...CHAIN
OF EVENTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL SLOWLY BACK WSW`ERLIES
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO PICK UP FROM LOW-ISH 0.25-0.50 INCH VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MID-LATE SUNDAY. THESE PWATS WOULD BE
2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENSEMBLE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF S/W PASSAGE...WITH THE EURO SOLUTION LAGGING THE GFS
IN TIMING BY 6-12 HOURS. LOWERING PRESSURES AHEAD OF A CENTRAL
TEXAS SFC LOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MODELING SHOWING THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LL CONV DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...
ALBEIT TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE DRIVER TO ANY
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE S/W`S EASTERN PASSAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT...BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP THAT MAY GET CHANNELED ALONG A 85-925
REGION OF CONVERGENCE (WITHIN A LIKELY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT).

CLEARING ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT IN-A-LINE OF WESTERN DISTURBANCES
GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE DESERT SW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS HIGH ON TUESDAY FROM MAINLY SW`ERLY VORTS KICKING
OUT FROM UNDER THIS DEVELOPING WESTERN TX TROF. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
EURO DIGS THE 5H TROF OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHILE THE MORE PASSIVE
GFS SHUNTS ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS A ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS
AT MID-WEEK. THE MOST GLARING DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE EURO HAS A NEAR -10C 85H AIR MASS SPILLING OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE 85H 0C LINE ONLY REACHING THE
RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE SAME PERIOD. A VERY MINOR MENTION OF
OF A WINTRY MIX WAY UP UP NORTH LATE TUE/EARLY WED MORNING AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLING COLUMN. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY AND SIMPLY SPECULATION...
BUT THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE IT
ALL...FROM THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. 31

Questions and Comments are welcome! :)

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201. Barefootontherocks 5:47 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
LOL. If it sounds like a snow machine, it probably are one. Cold there. Amarillo's at -2. Chill factor -28. Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16322

202. 1900hurricane 5:56 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Looking at the latest radar loop, it appears that some of the isotropic upglide aross the front is starting to produce some precip. It'll be interesting to see what the nearest stations will be reporting, especially with the front ahead of schedule. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

203. 1900hurricane 5:59 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
And on a side note, this may be the most comments I've ever had on a blog post! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

204. 1900hurricane 6:11 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Tracking the progress of the front: Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

205. charlesimages 6:21 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Thundersnow? Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

206. 1900hurricane 6:23 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Epic airmass battle! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

207. 1900hurricane 6:23 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Quoting charlesimages: Thundersnow? Haha, that would be nice. Doubt it though, even over portions of the state that are seeing good amounts of snow. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

208. charlesimages 6:25 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane: Haha, that would be nice. Doubt it though, even over portions of the state that are seeing good amounts of snow. maybe someday you'll see some good thundersnow, it's really cool stuff. Man you should hang around the north in winter... haha Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

209. Barefootontherocks 4:30 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
From HPC. Through today, 8 a.m. CST ...TEXAS... BEAVER 2 N 8.0 AMARILLO 5 SW 7.0 BEAVER 7.0 PANHANDLE 7.0 TEXHOMA 6.5 BORGER 6.0 CANYON 6.0 VEGA 5.0 MIAMI 4.5 BUSHLAND 4.0 DUMAS 3.0 PERRYTON 3.0 Have a good one. Thanks for stopping in and sharing your knowledge at my blog last night! Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16322

210. 1900hurricane 7:06 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Hey, lookie here! College Station, Easterwood Field Lat: 30.58 Lon: -96.37 Elev: 314 Last Update on Feb 9, 12:53 pm CST Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy 24 °F (-4 °C) Humidity: 84 % Wind Speed: NW 22 G 26 MPH Barometer: 30.27" (1025.2 mb) Dewpoint: 20 °F (-7 °C) Wind Chill: 9 °F (-13 °C) Visibility: 2.50 mi. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

211. 1900hurricane 7:13 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Everything right now is so low (and light) that not even the radar can pick it up! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

212. 1900hurricane 10:53 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKALHOMA PANHANDLES LOCATION SNOWFALL (INCHES) COMMENTS NWS Amarillo 6.5 600 AM 2/09 Canadian 12.0 700 AM 2/09 1 NW Pampa 10.5 630 AM 2/09 Miami 9.5 700 AM 2/09 Vega 8.0 146 AM 2/09 4 N Amarillo 8.0 700 AM 2/09 Gate 8.0 436 AM 2/09 2 N Beaver 8.0 436 AM 2/09 Allison 8.0 700 AM 2/09 Beaver 8.0 700 AM 2/09 Panhandle 7.5 925 AM 2/09 3 N Beaver 7.0 918 PM 2/08 5 SW Amarillo 7.0 700 AM 2/09 7 ENE Amarillo 6.5 600 AM 2/09 Texhoma 6.5 120 AM 2/09 6 WSW Amarillo 6.3 358 AM 2/09 Borger 6.0 712 AM 2/09 3 NE Gate 6.0 832 PM 2/08 Canyon 6.0 1230 AM 2/09 Shamrock 6.0 700 AM 2/09 1 WSW Bushland 6.0 700 AM 2/09 7 SW Amarillo 5.5 153 AM 2/09 1 W Sanford 5.0 600 AM 2/09 3 S Elmwood 5.0 218 AM 2/09 Perryton 5.0 309 AM 2/09 Guymon 5.0 1200 AM 2/09 5 W Amarillo 4.8 1102 PM 2/08 Clarendon 4.3 343 AM 2/09 Stinnett 4.0 246 AM 2/09 Spearman 4.0 700 AM 2/09 Follett 4.0 700 AM 2/09 12 N Texhoma 4.0 700 AM 2/09 Dumas 3.8 125 AM 2/09 Dawn 3.5 700 AM 2/09 Hereford 3.5 151 AM 2/09 Sunray 3.5 730 AM 2/09 2 WSW Claude 3.0 1202 AM 2/09 Claude 3.0 338 AM 2/09 Boise City 3.0 614 PM 2/08 Wellington 3.0 700 AM 2/09 1 NNW Boys Ranch 2.5 700 AM 2/09 Channing 2.5 700 AM 2/09 Dalhart 2.0 630 AM 2/09 Turpin 2.0 110 PM 2/08 8 SSW Romero 2.0 1053 AM 2/09 Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

213. 1900hurricane 10:55 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

214. shoreacres 10:59 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Snow in Kemah today, at 2:24 p.m. at the intersection of 146 and FM2094. Now, granted, it wasn't much - but you could see it, and that counts in my book! LOL Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14798

215. EmmyRose 11:10 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
This summers gonna be crazy. Glad I didnt have to drive into Austin today I understand its really nightmare driving out there. Like in Austin. Had a teleconference with Austin regarding summer we're gearing up............. Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76397

216. 1900hurricane 11:28 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

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About 1900hurricane

Texas A&M meteorology major; hardcore weather enthusiast. Class of 2013 (+ a victory lap or two). My raw passion for extreme weather is hard to match.m@

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