Winter Weather in Texas

By: 1900hurricane , 10:08 PM GMT on January 27, 2011

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Although the possible event is still five days out, there is increasing confidence in a possible winter weather event for at least part of Texas. Currently, several of the forecast models are forecasting a Blue Norther sweep the state early next week, dropping temperatures to well below average values. During this same time period, a disturbance could be crossing the state. While there is not a great consensus on how this disturbance is going to act, there is a general consensus that it will bring precipitation to the state. The interesting and tricky part of the forecast is how the disturbance and the Blue Norther will interact. A faster frontal passage and/or a slower disturbance will increase the likelihood of of a winter weather type event for a good portion of the state, with how the disturbance behaves also playing a significant role. As the event draws closer, expect this blog to be updated with more information in the comments section.


NWS Fort Worth



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S. THE
WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE
HAVENT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS WARM SINCE LATE DECEMBER. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION MAY PICK
UP AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA...ONCE AGAIN OPENING UP THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS.
A PIECE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX
IN NE CANADA WILL BREAK OFF AND ENTER THE NORTHERN US BY
MONDAY...SENDING A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A VERY COLD
AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT DO
NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO ITS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THIS
FAR OUT...MODELS TEND TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SHALLOW DEPTH
OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES AND ONE NEEDS TO PAY CLOSER ATTENTION TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND BASE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
PAST EXPERIENCES. CURRENT 850 TEMPS IN THE SOURCE REGION ARE IN
THE NEGATIVE 24C RANGE AND ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS
IN SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR -20C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST ARCTIC
AIRMASS ARE ACTUALLY COLDER WHEN WE SAW PROLONGED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN
...THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO WARM WITH THE AIRMASS AND WILL STICK CLOSER
TO THE COLDER CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED
BY ALL MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND WHAT IF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE.
THERE
ARE BASICALLY TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW THIS
MAY PLAY OUT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH AND PROG A TUESDAY ARRIVAL.
THIS ALLOWS AMPLE TIME
FOR THE COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE LIFT ARRIVES AND BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS.
THE CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET PROG A MUCH STRONGER
PIECE OF THE POLAR LOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...OUR PACIFIC PIECE OF ENERGY
WOULD QUICKLY BE SWEPT UP AROUND THE BIGGER SYSTEM AND ALL THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WOULD BE GONE BEFORE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES. THE PRECIP WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID...ENDING BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATTER
GROUP OF MODELS IS NOT USUALLY THE PREFERRED SET WHEN WE MAKE A
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EVEN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AND HOW SIMILAR THIS GROUP IS...SOME WEIGHT
DEFINITELY IS GIVEN TO THIS DATA SET.

FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
THE POSSIBILITIES OF WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...VERY
COLD AIR SEEMS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS...WILL
WE SEE PRECIP AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WERE TO FALL...WE FEEL THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
AND THAT THE SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE AN OPEN ENDED TROUGH...SNOW
WILL NOT BE LIKELY INITIALLY. IF PRECIP WERE TO LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE A FINAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
EVERYTHING SHUTS OFF.



NWS Abilene



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION REMAINS LOW.


.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WITH A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...A LITTLE TRICKY ON HOW LOW THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF
LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL...HAVE MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND GOING WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THAT AREA. CARRYING 30-35 ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY WHERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.

A STRONG TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH
WARMING AT 850 MB AND WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING
INTO TEXAS...OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. EXPECT A PRESENCE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL OUT TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD
BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON THE WARMUP. GOING
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70-73 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...
FIRST OF 2 SHORTWAVES PASS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. MODELS APPEAR TO
BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST...SO HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SECOND WAVE APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE POSITION OF THE ECMWF ALLOWS MORE OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY...ECMWF
HAS SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 850MB READINGS IN THE -6C TO
-12C RANGE. GFS 850MB TEMPS AT THE SAME TIME RANGE FROM +10C TO
-3C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS LEANING TOWARDS
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. SUSPECT THAT NEITHER MODEL IS
CORRECT
...AND WILL COMBINE SOME OF EACH INTO A FIRST GUESS
FORECAST. GIVEN THE THREAT OF ICE...WILL MENTION RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND HOPE LATER RUNS CAN
NARROW THE FOCUS INTO SOMETHING MORE MANAGEABLE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE GFS DROPS A VERY COLD
AIR MASS INTO PLACE.


NWS Houston/Galveston



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE...AND QUITE INTERESTING...CHAIN
OF EVENTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.


SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL SLOWLY BACK WSW`ERLIES
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO PICK UP FROM LOW-ISH 0.25-0.50 INCH VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MID-LATE SUNDAY. THESE PWATS WOULD BE
2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENSEMBLE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF S/W PASSAGE...WITH THE EURO SOLUTION LAGGING THE GFS
IN TIMING BY 6-12 HOURS. LOWERING PRESSURES AHEAD OF A CENTRAL
TEXAS SFC LOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MODELING SHOWING THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LL CONV DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...
ALBEIT TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE DRIVER TO ANY
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE S/W`S EASTERN PASSAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT...BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP THAT MAY GET CHANNELED ALONG A 85-925
REGION OF CONVERGENCE (WITHIN A LIKELY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT).

CLEARING ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT IN-A-LINE OF WESTERN DISTURBANCES
GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE DESERT SW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER.
THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS HIGH ON TUESDAY FROM MAINLY SW`ERLY VORTS KICKING
OUT FROM UNDER THIS DEVELOPING WESTERN TX TROF. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
EURO DIGS THE 5H TROF OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHILE THE MORE PASSIVE
GFS SHUNTS ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS A ZONAL FLOW OVER TEXAS
AT MID-WEEK.
THE MOST GLARING DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE EURO HAS A NEAR -10C 85H AIR MASS SPILLING OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE 85H 0C LINE ONLY REACHING THE
RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE SAME PERIOD. A VERY MINOR MENTION OF
OF A WINTRY MIX WAY UP UP NORTH LATE TUE/EARLY WED MORNING
AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLING COLUMN. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY AND SIMPLY SPECULATION...
BUT THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE IT
ALL...FROM THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
31


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216. 1900hurricane
11:28 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
215. EmmyRose
11:10 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
This summers gonna be crazy.
Glad I didnt have to drive into Austin today
I understand its really nightmare driving out there.
Like in Austin.

Had a teleconference with Austin regarding summer
we're gearing up.............
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
214. shoreacres
10:59 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Snow in Kemah today, at 2:24 p.m. at the intersection of 146 and FM2094. Now, granted, it wasn't much - but you could see it, and that counts in my book! LOL
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
213. 1900hurricane
10:55 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
212. 1900hurricane
10:53 PM GMT on February 09, 2011


PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKALHOMA PANHANDLES

LOCATION SNOWFALL (INCHES) COMMENTS
NWS Amarillo 6.5 600 AM 2/09
Canadian 12.0 700 AM 2/09
1 NW Pampa 10.5 630 AM 2/09
Miami 9.5 700 AM 2/09
Vega 8.0 146 AM 2/09
4 N Amarillo 8.0 700 AM 2/09
Gate 8.0 436 AM 2/09
2 N Beaver 8.0 436 AM 2/09
Allison 8.0 700 AM 2/09
Beaver 8.0 700 AM 2/09
Panhandle 7.5 925 AM 2/09
3 N Beaver 7.0 918 PM 2/08
5 SW Amarillo 7.0 700 AM 2/09
7 ENE Amarillo 6.5 600 AM 2/09
Texhoma 6.5 120 AM 2/09
6 WSW Amarillo 6.3 358 AM 2/09
Borger 6.0 712 AM 2/09
3 NE Gate 6.0 832 PM 2/08
Canyon 6.0 1230 AM 2/09
Shamrock 6.0 700 AM 2/09
1 WSW Bushland 6.0 700 AM 2/09
7 SW Amarillo 5.5 153 AM 2/09
1 W Sanford 5.0 600 AM 2/09
3 S Elmwood 5.0 218 AM 2/09
Perryton 5.0 309 AM 2/09
Guymon 5.0 1200 AM 2/09
5 W Amarillo 4.8 1102 PM 2/08
Clarendon 4.3 343 AM 2/09
Stinnett 4.0 246 AM 2/09
Spearman 4.0 700 AM 2/09
Follett 4.0 700 AM 2/09
12 N Texhoma 4.0 700 AM 2/09
Dumas 3.8 125 AM 2/09
Dawn 3.5 700 AM 2/09
Hereford 3.5 151 AM 2/09
Sunray 3.5 730 AM 2/09
2 WSW Claude 3.0 1202 AM 2/09
Claude 3.0 338 AM 2/09
Boise City 3.0 614 PM 2/08
Wellington 3.0 700 AM 2/09
1 NNW Boys Ranch 2.5 700 AM 2/09
Channing 2.5 700 AM 2/09
Dalhart 2.0 630 AM 2/09
Turpin 2.0 110 PM 2/08
8 SSW Romero 2.0 1053 AM 2/09
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
211. 1900hurricane
7:13 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Everything right now is so low (and light) that not even the radar can pick it up!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
210. 1900hurricane
7:06 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
Hey, lookie here!

College Station, Easterwood Field
Lat: 30.58 Lon: -96.37 Elev: 314
Last Update on Feb 9, 12:53 pm CST

Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy

24 °F
(-4 °C)
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: NW 22 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 30.27" (1025.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 20 °F (-7 °C)
Wind Chill: 9 °F (-13 °C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
209. Barefootontherocks
4:30 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
From HPC. Through today, 8 a.m. CST

...TEXAS...
BEAVER 2 N 8.0
AMARILLO 5 SW 7.0
BEAVER 7.0
PANHANDLE 7.0
TEXHOMA 6.5
BORGER 6.0
CANYON 6.0
VEGA 5.0
MIAMI 4.5
BUSHLAND 4.0
DUMAS 3.0
PERRYTON
3.0

Have a good one. Thanks for stopping in and sharing your knowledge at my blog last night!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
208. charlesimages
6:25 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Haha, that would be nice. Doubt it though, even over portions of the state that are seeing good amounts of snow.
maybe someday you'll see some good thundersnow, it's really cool stuff. Man you should hang around the north in winter... haha
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
207. 1900hurricane
6:23 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Quoting charlesimages:
Thundersnow?

Haha, that would be nice. Doubt it though, even over portions of the state that are seeing good amounts of snow.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
206. 1900hurricane
6:23 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Epic airmass battle!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
205. charlesimages
6:21 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Thundersnow?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
204. 1900hurricane
6:11 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Tracking the progress of the front:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
203. 1900hurricane
5:59 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
And on a side note, this may be the most comments I've ever had on a blog post!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
202. 1900hurricane
5:56 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Looking at the latest radar loop, it appears that some of the isotropic upglide aross the front is starting to produce some precip.



It'll be interesting to see what the nearest stations will be reporting, especially with the front ahead of schedule.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
201. Barefootontherocks
5:47 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
LOL. If it sounds like a snow machine, it probably are one.

Cold there. Amarillo's at -2. Chill factor -28.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
200. 1900hurricane
5:16 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Snow machine sounding from Amarillo!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
199. 1900hurricane
4:51 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE TX PANHANDLE & N TX. TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WERE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE.
00Z NAM12 CAME IN CLOSER TO REALITY BUT STILL WAS A FEW DEGREES
TOO WARM. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMPS AFTER FROPA TOMORROW WITH A
BLEND OF NAM12 RAW DATA...00Z MET...AND CURRENT FCST. FRONT SHOULD
BE OFF THE GLS COAST AROUND 18Z (BEFORE THAT MATAGORDA BAY AREA).
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAYBE AN HOUR OR
TWO BEHIND IT ACROSS ERN AREAS. WITH THE UPDATED TEMPS...WILL NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE POLK, SAN JAC, AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES - BUT NOTE THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE NW PORTIONS
OF EACH OF THOSE COUNTIES. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA (EXCEPT EXTREME E) BY 3 PM. HAVE A GUT
FEELING THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE FREEZING OF THE
RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN PRIOR TO THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
ARRIVING MAINLY ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/ETC. WILL AWAIT THE REST OF
THE 00Z MODELS AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW ISSUE ANY OTHER UPDATES. 47
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
198. 1900hurricane
3:11 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Yeah, you know the front is ahead of schedule when the 7 pm analysis is so similar to the 10 pm forecast.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
197. 1900hurricane
2:48 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Looks like it might be another screamer of a front!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...
VERY COLD AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH 22Z READINGS
ONLY IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN SECTIONS.
THIS ARCTIC AIR HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ON SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH OVER ALL BUT THE VERY SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...THOUGH EVEN THERE THEY WILL NOT MISS OUT FOR LONG. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 5 DEGREES AT FRIONA AND
DIMMITT...WITH TEENS QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO LUBBOCK COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WIND AND VERY COLD AIR WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AS FAR SOUTH AS LUBBOCK...BROWNFIELD AND DENVER CITY. GIVEN
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
DID KNOCK
DOWN FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES BY MORNING TOO...NOW REFLECTING
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WE HAVE INCREASED
THE WIND SPEEDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES KEEPING THE WINDS BLOWING HARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THEY SHOULD
FINALLY SLOWLY BACK OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH STILL REMAINING
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY. NEW TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS NOW SUPPORT WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA /VALUES AT OR BELOW -15F/ FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...WE
HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL WARNING...EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION...WE HAVE NOT LOOKED AT THAT CLOSELY
YET...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH FURTHER
UPDATES AS WARRANTED.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
196. 1900hurricane
2:04 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
The fun stuff has invaded the Amarillo area!



Rick Husband Amarillo Intl Airport
Lat: 35.23 Lon: -101.7 Elev: 3586
Last Update on Feb 8, 7:53 pm CST

Snow Blowing Snow Fog/Mist and Windy

-0 °F
(-18 °C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: N 35 G 41 MPH
Barometer: 30.16" (1025.6 mb)
Dewpoint: -3 °F (-19 °C)
Wind Chill: -27 °F (-33 °C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
195. 1900hurricane
1:25 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Monitoring the progress of the front.



Also note the sharpness of the temp gradient!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
194. 1900hurricane
1:20 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
For the Panhandle:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 090116Z - 090415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 05-06Z.

ABOVE A SHALLOW STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
SATURATING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL IS SPREADING
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z. AS MID-LEVEL LIFT SATURATES THE MIXED PHASE
LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES
WILL INTENSIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
HIGHER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
IN NARROW TONGUE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NOT IMPACT SNOW
RATES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT....BUT IT APPEARS HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/09/2011


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35520240 36420078 36719960 36589829 36109807 35479822
34749994 34070158 34300260 34790266 35520240
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
193. 1900hurricane
12:21 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
You think so? A couple of my profs are all for freezing rain.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
192. beell
12:13 AM GMT on February 09, 2011
Quoting EmmyRose:
still trying to decide whether to go to Austin
on Wednesday............


Tough call, imo. If you can get there by 9AM you should be fine. Looks like more of a sleet event then a freezing rain thing.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16633
191. EmmyRose
11:22 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
still trying to decide whether to go to Austin
on Wednesday............
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
190. 1900hurricane
10:00 PM GMT on February 08, 2011


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICY SPOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


TXZ171-172-184>190-090600-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.110209T1200Z-110209T1900Z/
LLANO-BURNET-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO
348 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

LIGHT RAIN EARLY WEDNESAY MORNING WILL LIKELY TURN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INTO THE 20S
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING ON
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING
EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EXITING THE ADVISORY AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
189. 1900hurricane
9:54 PM GMT on February 08, 2011


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210>212-091200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CROCKETT...
EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SEALY...TRINITY...WEIMAR
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE ADVISORY REGION MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET. THE THREAT WILL PROGRESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OFF QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ENDING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT
WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED
WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
188. 1900hurricane
9:51 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
Umm... Nevermind...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
187. 1900hurricane
5:15 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
I think it should be ok. I'm not super-excited about the event, plus Winter Weather Advisories haven't even been issued.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
186. EmmyRose
4:29 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
1900 - trying to decided whether its safe for me
to go to Austin on Wednesday............
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
185. 1900hurricane
4:19 PM GMT on February 08, 2011
*Facepalm*

Houston suburb buries its head in the sand with regard to hurricane risk
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
184. 1900hurricane
2:52 PM GMT on February 08, 2011


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011


TXZ091>095-100>107-082200-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0004.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING....CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD NORTH
TEXAS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY
SUNRISE.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN 3
INCHES NEAR A LINE FROM OLNEY TO DENTON TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS...INCREASING TO AROUND 5 INCHES NEAR THE RED RIVER.

ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN EASTERN COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011


TXZ115>123-129>135-141-082200-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0004.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-
VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
HENDERSON-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...
WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...
ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...
GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...
CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...
GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...
GUN BARREL CITY...COMANCHE...DE LEON
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING....CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD NORTH
TEXAS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXTURE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE
TO THREE INCHES. IN ADDITION...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN COULD COAT ROADS AND EXPOSED OBJECTS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND SNOW BY MID MORNING.

ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
EASTERN COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011


TXZ142>148-156>162-174-175-082200-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0004.110209T0900Z-110210T0000Z/
MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-
CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...
CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...
TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...
CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
428 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND LIGHT
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN TO SLEET AND SNOW
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM
LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY TO A TRACE
IN THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
183. 1900hurricane
2:50 PM GMT on February 08, 2011


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-081800-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
614 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY AROUND
MIDDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN WILL MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO
HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. THESE LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT
GLAZING FROM ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...ELEVATED ROADWAYS...OR
EXPOSED SURFACES ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

ANY ACCUMULATION OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. MOTORISTS ARE
URGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND STATEMENTS. A WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
182. Barefootontherocks
1:24 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Hi 19,
Norman issued winter storm warnings for OK and so far has held off on warnings for its N TX forecast area. Just a watch so far as they're not committed to 4" snow (Add: for TX). Next discussion-probably out about 3-4 a.m., may have more for TX.

Did you pick up on this?

Interesting Day 2 from SPC...


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST MON FEB 07 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL DEVELOP SWD THEN EWD...REACHING
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

...NERN NM...NRN TX AND OK...

STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN
NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK NORTH OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET AXIS MAY
RESULT IN A LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 02/07/2011

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
181. beell
12:26 AM GMT on February 08, 2011
Not sure why they are so busy. Maybe just trying to keep everything in tune with the latest guidance?
It would be rude to say "flip-flop".

No problem on the other thing, my pleasure. DFW is covering their bases on that issue also, lol.

A couple of excerpts from today's 11AM discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...WHICH MEANS SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WOULD FORM
IN LIEU OF SNOW OR SLEET...

...AGAIN THERE ARE
CONCERNS ABOUT ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA...AND PRECIP
TYPE MAY BE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAN SNOW OR SLEET...

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16633
180. 1900hurricane
11:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2011
I wonder why FWD issues so many different versions of their Winter Storm Watch?

Oh, and thanks for the insight beell!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
179. 1900hurricane
11:33 PM GMT on February 07, 2011
Here we go one more time!



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

TXZ130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-080500-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
354 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS.

TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR
INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION...AROUND ONE TENTH INCH OF FREEZING
RAIN COULD COAT ROADS AND EXPOSED OBJECTS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND SNOW BY MIDDAY.

ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY... CARRY A WINTER WEATHER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU IN CASE
YOU BECOME STRANDED.

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129-080500-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN
354 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MIX IN
NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR
THE RED RIVER. IN ADDITION...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD COAT ROADS AND EXPOSED OBJECTS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND SNOW BY MIDDAY.

ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...
CARRY A WINTER WEATHER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED.


$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
178. beell
3:29 AM GMT on February 07, 2011
Hey, HoustonWeather. Did a little checking and will add my .02 I may have to agree with you.

A moist and nearly saturated layer below 700mb and dry above. This would indicate a good chance that droplets would remain supercooled droplets because there would be no ice crystals/nuclei to freeze to in the layer. All of this occuring in a layer a good bit warmer than -10C° as you have stated.

This may have been a bit of an unusual event. A slightly different process than an ice crystal falling through a melting layer and then becoming super cooled. Started out as a supercooled droplet in the saturated layer and remained in this state until contact with the overpasses and bridges.

Still does not address the issue of a fairly dry low level in all the soundings that never seemed to saturate.

A couple of KIAH forecast soundings relevant to the event:

Photobucket
00Z Friday GFS Forecast Analysis Sounding-Valid 6PM Local Thursday Evening.

Photobucket

00Z GFS Forecast Sounding-Valid 03Z Friday/9PM Local Thursday Evening.

Of course, based on these soundings, there shouldn't have been much of anything reaching the ground! It may be a safe assumption that saturation never occured above 700mb either!

And just for the record, some of the forecast discussions beginning Thursday nite and ending with the early Friday morning fact at 3:13AM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST BATCH OF 00Z MODEL DATA ARRIVING THIS EVENING STILL SUPPORTS THE
OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST OF MIXED FROZEN PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING
OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW BY MORNING. STATE RADAR IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW
WEAK ECHOES (ESPECIALLY JUST TO OUR WEST)...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH PUBLIC/MEDIA/EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ARE INDICATING
ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS FALLING TO CAUSE ACCIDENTS AND FORCE THE CLOSING
OF SOME MAJOR ROADS AND INTERSTATES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE CORRECTLY
NAILING THE 03Z HILL COUNTRY AREA BURST...AND THE MODEL FILLS IN MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY 09Z. CURRENT THINKING
HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE (REFER TO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING - WSWHGX - AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW). 42/34/31/38
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011/

AVIATION...
THOUGH RECENT HOUSTON AREA MID-DAY ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR -SN DEVELOPMENT...STILL AWAITING THE ONSET
FOR NORTHERN SNOW WITH A SOUTHERN SLEET/SNOW MIX. KCRP REPORTING
-FZDZ AT LATEST OB...WITH A QUIET RADAR OVER OUR AREA. STILL
BITING ON WHAT THE PROGS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ALL ALONG...LATE
EVENING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD AND A SLEET/SNOW
MIX HOBBY SOUTHWARD. THE 04Z-14Z TIME PERIOD IS WHEN ALL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW....POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF
FZRA/SLEET/FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN AN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TRANSITION TO -SHSN. MVFR DECKS/VISBIES WITHIN -SHSN...IFR
ON ISLAND. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL SCOUR SKIES OUT TO SCT-FEW VFR...MAINTAIN NEAR-10 KT
NORTHWESTERLIES...BY END OF PERIOD. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE ICE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ALREADY UNFOLDING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING OVER GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. KHGX RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE RETURNS IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 32 IN THIS AREA. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z NAM SHOW SOME WARMING NEAR THE 850 MB LAYER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CALL FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 06Z. EXCEPT OVER GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF ICE COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO A SARGENT
TO LEAGUE CITY TO LIBERTY LINE AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING
ALL SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE TO
CROCKETT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EAST OF THAT LINE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION THIS AFTN. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST
TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LIFT INCREASING AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE
CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SATURATION (UP TO THE
-8 TO -10C LEVEL) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THINKING SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OF 1/10 TO POSSIBLY 1/4 INCH.
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE 850 MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP
RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. EVEN IF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL MEAN
MAJOR PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SOMETIMES THE SMALLER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CAN TURN INTO A
GLAZE ON ROADWAYS AS THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCED ONCE WHILE LIVING
IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE ICY ROADS...WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ZONES BY MIDDAY
AND AREA WIDE BY LATE AFTN. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AFTN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EARLY FRI EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW/SLEET
COVER WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT. REFREEZING IS LIKELY
ON ROADWAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE FORMING ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT THE DAYS 4-7 FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FROPA. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY...NOW THE WARMEST DAY...SO WINTRY PRECIP NO LONGER
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY COLDER BEHIND THIS
FRONT THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...SO A HARD FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

35/41/46/33/DH

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATIONS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/BAYS THRU TOMORROW. WHILE WINDS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SCA ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THINGS
IN PLACE. SIMILAR THEORY FOR THE BAYS AND THE SCEC. WINDS/SEAS TO
DECREASE AREAWIDE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR A SUN NIGHT/
EARLY MON MORNING PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. 41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF -FZRA TO -SN FROM 03Z THIS EVENING. RADAR
SHOWING AREAWIDE COVERAGE OF EITHER LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/ICE
PELLETS/LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES HOVER A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING. REPORTS OF EITHER A GLAZE UPWARDS TO 1/4" THICK
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS LOCALES BETWEEN KCLL AND KIAH. THUS...PREVAILED
-FZRA FROM THE JUMP...WITH A TRANSITION TO A SLEET MIX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...TURNING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM 09Z THROUGH
13Z AS COLUMN EVAP COOLS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MVFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF THIS LIGHT FROZEN MIX/PRECIP.
CLEARING OUT THROUGH MID-MORNING...MAINLY SKC BY MID AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDS IN FROM THE WEST. 31


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 850 MB TEMPS WERE +6 C AT LCH AND -6 C AT CRP.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IT HAS MADE
DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE A NIGHTMARE. SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIES IN A
RIGHT REAR QUAD WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE PRECIP GOING THROUGH
15Z. SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS DRYING APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT ANY RAIN ON
SUB FREEZING SURFACES WILL (AND HAS) TURN TO ICE. NUMEROUS ROAD
CLOSURES AREA WIDE AND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SMALL. WILL TRIM
BACK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 18Z.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16633
177. 1900hurricane
10:15 PM GMT on February 06, 2011
One more round?





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
176. HoustonWeather
7:46 PM GMT on February 04, 2011
Below is a comment left on Eric Berger's chron.com blog. What do you think about it? Did the models really get it right and the local Mets ignore the data?

You, the ImpactWeather meteorologist in yesterday's chat, the National Weather Service, and all the TV meteorologists calling for 1-3" snow with locally 4"+ yesterday afternoon and even yesterday night were doing a disservice to the meteorological community and to the general public.


I am a meteorologist.


It was obvious as early as Wednesday, that the computer model forecast soundings (chart that shows temperature and humidity with height) indicated some light snow/sleet before midnight and freezing drizzle past midnight.


If no part of the cloud is forecast to be at least as cold as -10 Celsius, then you cannot get a snow crystal to form, and instead you get a supercooled water droplet. The water droplet falls and freezes on contact with the ground. Such was the case with this storm. It was a classic freezing drizzle computer model forecast sounding.


On Wed, I called for 0.5-2.0" of snow before midnight, and freezing drizzle after midnight.


By yesterday afternoon, it became obvious based on observations that the pre-midnight precipitation was mainly staying east of Houston (in part due to too much dry air), so I lowered my snow forecast to

By late afternoon, it appeared that almost all of the pre-midnight precipitation would miss us. Computer models agreed for the most part with approx 0.01" of precipitation before midnight, so at that point the wise forecast was for a few flakes or sleet pellets through late evening, if anything. Then attention turns toward the post-midnight precipitation, which models agreed on with approx. one-tenth an inch liquid equivalent with forecast soundings indicating freezing drizzle.


By the time the 10pm news went on last night, freezing drizzle was falling from Corpus Christi to Victoria, and the evening weather balloon launch yielded a sounding out of Corpus Christi that showed the ideal freezing drizzle sounding. The latest computer models at that time still had the forecast soundings showing freezing drizzle... and one-tenth an inch of precipitation. Yet, the National Weather Service and the local TV stations were still calling for 1-3"+ of snow! Even IF the precipitation had been all snow after midnight, there would only have been 1" of snow (using the standard 10"-snow-to-1"-rain ratio).


As we have witnessed, all the precipitation fell as freezing drizzle/rain... and, according to the Bush Airport weather sensor, 0.08" of precipitation fell... an excellent forecast by the computer models!


Now, I'm reading your column and watching KHOU-11 at work, seeing both explain that we got freezing drizzle/rain because the 850mb (one mile above the ground)
temperatures were above-freezing, which would have been the argument for sleet yesterday.... when the real explanation for the busted forecast is that meteorologists were not properly doing their job in recognizing that snow could not form with the available computer model forecasts... and overforecasting snow totals if snow were to have occurred. I am most disappointed with the National Weather Service because they should know what they're doing... and then plenty of on-air meteorologists and media outlets use that information to explain the weather to the public, not to mention various emergency agencies using that information to plan for a storm.


So, unlike other times, where the computer forecast models could mislead even the best of meteorologists, the computer forecast models did a great job, indicating the freezing drizzle potential... and I was able to do warm my co-workers and friends of this ice danger as early as Wednesday and snow disappointment yesterday.


I have sent a shorter version of this for submission to the "opinion" section of the paper.
Member Since: February 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
175. OUSHAWN
9:52 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Amazing...we went from be forecasted at 10:00 last night to only get a dusting of snow here in Plano to now getting 4" or more! My,my,my...
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
174. 1900hurricane
7:44 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Really nice band to the west of here!!!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
173. 1900hurricane
6:59 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Here's a couple pictures so far:





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
172. OUSHAWN
6:42 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Snowing at a pretty good clip here in Plano now
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
171. 1900hurricane
6:41 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Uploading some photos, I'll be posting them in a minute.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
170. HoustonWeather
6:23 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Off and on freezing drizzle with a little sleet mixed in...Missouri City

Got a glaze of ice on my deck.
Member Since: February 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
169. metwombly
6:19 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Lots of snow, visibility is not conducive to driving. I live on the West Side near I-30 and West Loop 820, Tarrant County
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
168. 1900hurricane
5:44 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Snow sighted here, mixing with the sleet. EVERYTHING IS ACCUMULATING!!!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
167. 1900hurricane
5:12 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Since our heater is still busted, my roommates and I are sitting around the fireplace making smores and playing guitar and singing. It's pretty awesome.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
166. 1900hurricane
4:56 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Starting to get sleet here, I'm expecting it to change over completely soon!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667

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Texas A&M meteorology major; hardcore weather enthusiast. Class of 2013 (+ a victory lap or two). My raw passion for extreme weather is hard to match.m@