668 

abpw10 pgtw 122130

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//

subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and

/South Pacific oceans reissued/122130z-130600zoct2008//

rmks/

1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary:

      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 17.1n 107.8e,

approximately 40 nm north-northeast of hue, Vietnam. Animated

infrared satellite imagery depicts a slowly developing disturbance

with formative banding wrapping into an improving low-level

circulation center (LLCC). A 121845z AMSU image depicted convective

banding wrapping into the LLCC with a broad LLCC. Surface

observations near the center support a defined, deepening low with

slp values as low as 1006 mb with 24-hour pressure falls of 2 to 3

mb. The environment is favorable for further development with weak

vertical wind shear, good radial outflow, warm SST and deep tropical

moisture. There is some cooler, drier air north of hainan associated

with northeasterly flow, which has enhanced convergence and helped

spin up the LLCC. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at

12 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near

1005 mb. Based on the improved consolidation and banding, the

potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone

within the next 24 hours is fair.

      (2) no other suspect areas.

2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.

3. Justification for reissue: added fair area in para. 1.B.(1).

Forecast team: Charlie//



668 


abpw10 pgtw 122130

msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//

subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and

/South Pacific oceans reissued/122130z-130600zoct2008//

rmks/

1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary:

      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 17.1n 107.8e,

approximately 40 nm north-northeast of hue, Vietnam. Animated

infrared satellite imagery depicts a slowly developing disturbance

with formative banding wrapping into an improving low-level

circulation center (LLCC). A 121845z AMSU image depicted convective

banding wrapping into the LLCC with a broad LLCC. Surface

observations near the center support a defined, deepening low with

slp values as low as 1006 mb with 24-hour pressure falls of 2 to 3

mb. The environment is favorable for further development with weak

vertical wind shear, good radial outflow, warm SST and deep tropical

moisture. There is some cooler, drier air north of hainan associated

with northeasterly flow, which has enhanced convergence and helped

spin up the LLCC. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at

12 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near

1005 mb. Based on the improved consolidation and banding, the

potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone

within the next 24 hours is fair.

      (2) no other suspect areas.

2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):

   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.

   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.

3. Justification for reissue: added fair area in para. 1.B.(1).

Forecast team: Charlie//