071
axnt20 knhc 140610
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Tue Oct 14 2008
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is
based on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...
weather observations...and radar.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and GOES-12 satellite
imagery through 0315 UTC...and Meteosat-9 imagery through
14/0530 UTC.
...Special features...
the center of Tropical Depression Nana at 14/0300 UTC is near
17.7n 41.8w...moving west-northwest or 295 degrees 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please
read the latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat4/wtnt34 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat4/wtnt24 knhc for more details.
Strong showers and thunderstorms in small cells are from 17n
to 18n between 39w and 40w. Scattered moderate showers to
isolated strong thunderstorms are from 13n to 16n between
37w and 41w.
The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen at 14/0600 UTC is
near 14.3n 69.3w...or about 360 miles/580 km southwest of San
Juan Puerto Rico...and about 145 miles/235 km north of Curacao.
The depression is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph/
4 km/hr. A turn to the east and then northeast is expected
today...with a gradual increase in forward speed on Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please
read the latest NHC public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat5/wtnt25 knhc for more details.
Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms are from 12n to 15n
between 66w and 70w.
A 1006 mb western Caribbean Sea low pressure center is about
50 nm to the east of northeastern Nicaragua. Numerous strong
showers and thunderstorms are from 15n to 17n between 82w and
84w. Scattered strong showers and thunderstorms are more to the
north of the low center...from 18n to 21n between 77w near
Jamaica and 85w. Smaller areas of showers and thunderstorms also
are from 13n to 14n between within 30 nm on either side of 82w.
...Tropical waves...
an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52w/53w south of 20n
moving west 10 to 15 kt. It is not readily apparent that any
convective precipitation is accompanying this wave.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60w/61w
south of 18n moving west 10 kt to 15 kt. Scattered strong
showers and thunderstorms are from 15n to 19n between 60w
and 62w. Isolated moderate showers are from 19n to 21n
between 55w and 60w. An upper level ridge is along 22n56w
15n61w 11n62w.
...The ITCZ...
12n18w 8n27w 9n34w 6n40w 10n51w 11n54w 11n59w. Scattered strong
showers and thunderstorms are from 9n to 12n between 18w and
26w...and from 8n to 12n between 29w and 35w. Isolated moderate
showers to locally strong thunderstorms are from 2n to 6n
between 20w and 41w...and from 6n to 11n between 46w and 54w.
...Discussion...
The Gulf of Mexico...
a middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
20n96w in the southwestern corner of the area near the Mexico
coast. Isolated moderate showers to locally strong thunderstorms
are in an area of upper level diffluent wind flow south of 27n
east of 95w.
The Caribbean Sea...
tropical depression 15 covers the east-central section.
The 1006 mb low pressure covers the westernmost part of the
area. A 60w/61w tropical wave covers the extreme eastern
part of the area.
The Atlantic Ocean...
a middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
39n62w...well north of the area. A trough is pushing southward
in front of the 39n62w cyclonic center. A separate middle to
upper level trough already passes through 36n49w through 32n55w
to 29n64w to 29n74w. Dry air in subsidence is within 30 nm on
either side of the line through 32n52w to 28n61w...and within
60 to 120 nm on either side of 28n61w 27n70w beyond 30n83w.
The surface frontal boundary with the 39n62w cyclone is still
well to the north of the area that is covered by this bulletin.
An upper level trough passes through 32n32w 25n38w...with no
sensible precipitation.
$$
Mt
| 
