The Plains, VA

4:41 PM EST on February 10, 2012 (GMT -0500)
Elev: 597 ft
Lon: 77.8° W
Lat: 38.9° N
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Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (South Indian Ocean) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Southern Pacific)
Weather Summary
Jessica Parker
Weather Underground Forecast for Friday, February 10, 2012.

Expect active weather to move into the East on Friday, as a trough of low pressure moves from the Southern Plains and into the Eastern Valleys. Flow around this system will pull moisture and energy in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley throughout the day. There is a slight chance that these storms will turn severe with strong winds and heavy downpours. The northern side of this system will push a cold front into the Midwest, which will move through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley. Expect light and scattered snow showers to develop along the front as it passes through northern Michigan and into the eastern Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians. Warmer temperatures ahead of this system will allow for rain showers to develop in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Tennessee Valley.

Out West, a weak trough of low pressure moves onshore from the Pacific Ocean, bringing some moisture onshore with it. This will produce more rain and high elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest. Some of this moisture will stretch southward into northern California, allowing for light rain and high elevation snow showers to spread into the northern Sierras.
Weather Underground Forecast for Friday, February 10, 2012.

Expect active weather to move into the East on Friday, as a trough of low pressure moves from the Southern Plains and into the Eastern Valleys. Flow around this system will pull moisture and energy in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley throughout the day. There is a slight chance that these storms will turn severe with strong winds and heavy downpours. The northern side of this system will push a cold front into the Midwest, which will move through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley. Expect light and scattered snow showers to develop along the front as it passes through northern Michigan and into the eastern Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians. Warmer temperatures ahead of this system will allow for rain showers to develop in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Tennessee Valley.

Out West, a weak trough of low pressure moves onshore from the Pacific Ocean, bringing some moisture onshore with it. This will produce more rain and high elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest. Some of this moisture will stretch southward into northern California, allowing for light rain and high elevation snow showers to spread into the northern Sierras.
Weather Underground Broadcast Network
The Plains Weather at a Glance
Updated 4:41 PM EST
Elevation
554 ft
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Now
Overcast
Overcast
Temperature
43.7 °F
Feels Like 44 °F
Wind(mph)
0.0
Sunrise / Set
7:08 AM
5:42 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
Tonight
Snow 31 °F
Snow
80% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
Snow Showers 40 °F
Snow Showers
60% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow Night
Chance of Snow 20 °F
Chance of Snow
50% chance of precipitation
Sunday
Partly Cloudy 31 | 20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Monday
Clear 43 | 29 °F
Clear
Tuesday
Chance of Rain 45 | 31 °F
Chance of Rain
30% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow is forecast to be Cooler than today.
Conditions
Pressure
30.12 in
Visibility
10.0 miles
Clouds
Overcast 9000 ft
Moisture
Humidity
59%
Rainfall
0.00 in
Snow Depth
Not available.
METAR
METAR KHEF 102045Z 23003KT 10SM OVC090 07/M04 A3002
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Weather Radio
Launch Weather Radio
Temperature
Windchill
44 °F
Dew Point
30 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir
Calm
Wind Gust
0.0 mph
Health
UV
0 out of 16
Pollen
1.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast
Air Quality
Not available.
Flu Activity
Regional
View Flu Map
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Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Rest of This Afternoon
cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
nt_snow Rain and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Saturday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Saturday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Blustery with lows around 19. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Sunday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny and brisk. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Sunday Night
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
Monday
sunny Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
Monday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
Tuesday
chancerain Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s.
Tuesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Wednesday
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
Wednesday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Thursday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
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Forecast
View Calendar 7-Day Weather Forecast for 20198
Friday, 10
Chance of Rain
47 | 31 °F
Chance of Rain
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
Saturday, 11
Snow Showers
40 | 20 °F
Snow Showers
Chance of
Precipitation
60%
Sunday, 12
Partly Cloudy
31 | 20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Monday, 13
Clear
43 | 29 °F
Clear
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Tuesday, 14
Chance of Rain
45 | 31 °F
Chance of Rain
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Wednesday, 15
Mostly Cloudy
47 | 31 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Thursday, 16
Partly Cloudy
47 | NA
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Rest of This Afternoon
cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
nt_snow Rain and snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 28 | 22 43 | 24 42 | 29 37 | 30
Wind 0 mph NNW 4 mph East 1 mph South 3 mph North
Humidity 78% 49% 60% 75%
Chance of Precip. 0% 20% 20% 80%
Cloud Cover 59% 43% 84% 100%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Chance of Rain Rain
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:42 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Saturday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Saturday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Blustery with lows around 19. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 32 | 29 39 | 26 33 | 19 26 | 12
Wind 5 mph North 10 mph NNW 19 mph NW 20 mph NW
Humidity 86% 59% 55% 56%
Chance of Precip. 80% 60% 60% 50%
Cloud Cover 100% 69% 85% 58%
Conditions Chance of Snow Partly Cloudy Snow Showers Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:07 AM
5:43 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Sunday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny and brisk. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Sunday Night
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 22 | 9 28 | 9 28 | 11 24 | 11
Wind 15 mph NW 19 mph WNW 13 mph WNW 7 mph WNW
Humidity 55% 43% 48% 58%
Chance of Precip. 50% 0% 0% 0%
Cloud Cover 36% 47% 43% 14%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:06 AM
5:44 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Monday
sunny Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
Monday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 23 | 11 37 | 14 37 | 17 33 | 20
Wind 6 mph WNW 8 mph West 3 mph West 2 mph WSW
Humidity 57% 39% 45% 55%
Chance of Precip. 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloud Cover 7% 8% 24% 74%
Conditions Clear Clear Clear Mostly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:05 AM
5:45 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Tuesday
chancerain Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s.
Tuesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 31 | 20 41 | 26 41 | 30 37 | 31
Wind 1 mph West 5 mph West 4 mph SSW 2 mph South
Humidity 64% 56% 67% 80%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 30% 30%
Cloud Cover 83% 93% 85% 77%
Conditions Mostly Cloudy Chance of Rain Chance of Rain Mostly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:46 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Wednesday
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
Wednesday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 29 43 | 33 42 | 32 37 | 30
Wind 2 mph West 5 mph NNW 5 mph WNW 3 mph NNW
Humidity 81% 66% 69% 74%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 10%
Cloud Cover 72% 71% 76% 51%
Conditions Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:46 PM
Source: NWS at 3:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Northern Fauquier
Thursday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 27 43 | 31 42 | 34 37 | 30
Wind 2 mph NNW 4 mph NW 2 mph West 3 mph NNW
Humidity 78% 65% 70% 74%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 10%
Cloud Cover 48% 58% 79% 51%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:46 PM
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Scientific Forecaster Discussion — MOS Weather Graph
Nearby
Active Notice: Public Information Statement  (US Severe Weather)
History & Almanac
February 10, 2012 Max Temp Min Temp
Normal (KIAD) 44 °F 23 °F
Record (KIAD) 63 °F (1990) -10 °F (1979)
Yesterday 46 °F 29 °F
Yesterday's Heating Degree Days: 27
Choose a date
Earthquake Activity
City Distance Mag. Time & Date
No recent earthquake activity has been reported nearby.
Minimum magnitude displayed is 2.5.
More information at USGS.gov
Astronomy
Feb. 10, 2012 Rise Set
Actual Time 7:08 AM EST 5:42 PM EST
Civil Twilight 6:41 AM EST 6:10 PM EST
Nautical Twilight 6:09 AM EST 6:41 PM EST
Astronomical Twilight 5:38 AM EST 7:12 PM EST
Moon 9:15 PM EST 8:18 AM EST
Length Of Visible Light 11h 28m
Length of Day
10h 33m
Tomorrow will be 2m 15s longer.
Waning Gibbous, 89% of the Moon is Illuminated
Today
Waning Gibbous
Feb 14
Last Quarter
Feb 21
New
Feb 29
First Quarter
Mar 8
Full
Visit Astronomy
Today's Extremes
State Highs State Lows
53 °F
Chesapeake
53 °F
Franklin
53 °F
Suffolk
53 °F
Williamsburg
51 °F
West Point
19 °F
Hot Springs
21 °F
Jonesville
21 °F
Richlands
22 °F
Staunton
23 °F
Lynchburg
Source: NWS
Snow Depth
Station Depth Elevation
No new snow has been reported.
Snow Depth Reports — Snow Depth Map
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Aviation
City Temp. Conditions Updated
Manassas 45 °F Overcast 3:45 PM EST
Dulles Airport 44 °F Overcast 3:52 PM EST
Leesburg 43 °F Mostly Cloudy 3:55 PM EST
Warrenton 49 °F Overcast 3:55 PM EST
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Flight To ETA Status
CJC4900
Newark, NJ 		KIAD 04:48PM On Time
DAL1195
Atlanta, GA 		KIAD 04:48PM On Time
CHQ6117
New York, NY 		KIAD 04:53PM On Time
TCF3515
Minneapolis, MN 		KIAD 05:06PM On Time
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Type Condition
Flight Rule: VFR (KHEF)
Wind Speed: 3.0 kts.
Wind Dir: 244° (WSW)
Ceiling: 9000 ft

METAR KHEF 102045Z 23003KT 10SM OVC090 07/M04 A3002

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Nearby Events
Event Date Forecast
Love is Forever 2012 6:00 PM EST 2012-02-10 Mostly Cloudy, 44°F
Cooking Class Demonstration: Sushi 6:00 PM EST 2012-02-10 Mostly Cloudy, 44°F
Piedmont Bloggers February 2012 Meetup 4:00 PM EST 2012-02-14 Chance of Rain, 42°F
Event data courtesy eviesays.com
Sports
Event Date Forecast
Budweiser Shootout 8:29 PM EST on February 18, 2012 Average High 71° F/ 21° C
Gatorade Duel 1 2:19 PM EST on February 23, 2012 Average High 70° F/ 21° C
Event Date Forecast
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 10, 2012 Partly Cloudy, 47 °F
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 11, 2012 Chance of Rain, 45 °F
View all Sports Weather
Weather Stations
Station Location Temp. Windchill Dew Point Humidity Wind Precipitation Elevation Updated Type Website
Wakefield School, The Plains, VA 43.7 °F 44 °F 30 °F 59% WSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 554 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
VADOT I-66_@_Haymarket, Broad Run, VA 44 °F 44 °F 21 °F 40% SW  at  1 mph 0.00 in / hr 429 ft 3:48 PM EST MADIS
Bull Run Mtn, Haymarket, VA 42.8 °F 43 °F 28 °F 56% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 642 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal
Mountainview Estates, Haymarket, VA 43.5 °F 44 °F 30 °F 58% South  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 486 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Evergreen Country Club, Haymarket, VA 44.6 °F 45 °F 28 °F 52% SW  at  1.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 436 ft 3:05 PM EST Normal  
Bull Run Mountain (FBI Unit #2666), Haymarket, VA 43.1 °F 43 °F 27 °F 53% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 565 ft 4:38 PM EST Normal  
Bull Run Mountain, Haymarket, VA 40.7 °F 41 °F 29 °F 62% NW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 1035 ft 4:39 PM EST Normal  
Dominion Valley, Haymarket, VA 45.9 °F 46 °F 25 °F 43% West  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 384 ft 4:41 PM EST Normal  
Middleburg Online, Middleburg, VA 43.7 °F 44 °F 21 °F 40% NNW  at  3.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 525 ft 4:40 PM EST Rapid Fire
APRSWXNET Warrenton VA, New Baltimore, VA 43 °F 43 °F 26 °F 51% SSW  at  1 mph 0.00 in / hr 571 ft 4:18 PM EST MADIS
Snow Hill, Haymarket, VA 43.5 °F 44 °F 30 °F 58% West  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 454 ft 4:41 PM EST Normal  
Greenhill Crossing, Haymarket, VA 44.6 °F 45 °F 29 °F 54% NW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 0 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal
Piedmont, Haymarket, VA 43.9 °F 44 °F 29 °F 56% North  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 358 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Compass Rose Farm, Haymarket, VA 43.3 °F 43 °F 30 °F 59% SW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 350 ft 4:40 PM EST Rapid Fire  
APRSWXNET Middleburg VA, Middleburg, VA 40 °F 40 °F 28 °F 62% NE  at  3 mph 0.00 in / hr 513 ft 4:12 PM EST MADIS
Oak Valley/KT4ER, Gainesville, VA 44.5 °F 44 °F 30 °F 57% SW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 496 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Brookside, Warrenton, VA 46.3 °F 46 °F 29 °F 51% SSW  at  1.1 mph 0.00 in / hr 371 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Middleburg, VA 39.5 °F 40 °F 30 °F 68% NE  at  1.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 495 ft 4:27 PM EST Normal
Laurianne Woods, Gainesville, VA 45.0 °F 45 °F 29 °F 53% North  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 204 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Least Accurate Wx Station, Gainesville, VA 45.1 °F 45 °F 26 °F 48% West  at  2.2 mph 0.00 in / hr 367 ft 4:17 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Greenstone, Marshall, VA 42.9 °F 43 °F 28 °F 55% ESE  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 662 ft 4:29 PM EST Normal  
Morris Farm, Gainesville, VA 45.1 °F 45 °F 25 °F 45% SW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 269 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Bridlewood, Gainesville, VA 45.5 °F 46 °F 29 °F 53% SW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 285 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Greenwich, Nokesville, VA 45.3 °F 45 °F 27 °F 49% WSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 361 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Stone Ridge, Dulles, VA 44.2 °F 44 °F 23 °F 42% WNW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 391 ft 4:40 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Kinsman Farm, Philomont, VA 39.9 °F 40 °F 30 °F 68% West  at  1.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 510 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal
Old Waterloo Road, Warrenton, VA 43.6 °F 44 °F 27 °F 51% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 512 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal
Wheatley, Orlean, VA 44.1 °F 44 °F -1 °F 15% SSE  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 552 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
VADOT Rt_50_@_Paris_Mnt, Paris, VA 41 °F 41 °F 23 °F 48% NE  at  2 mph 0.00 in / hr 1037 ft 2:36 PM EST MADIS
South Wales, Jeffersonton, VA 44.1 °F 44 °F 29 °F 56% North  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 375 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal  
Brambleton, Brambleton, VA 44.6 °F 43 °F 30 °F 56% NNW  at  4.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 310 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Ridings at Blue Springs, Chantilly, VA 45.1 °F 45 °F 30 °F 55% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 303 ft 4:37 PM EST Normal
Firey Run Mountian, Hume, VA 42.2 °F 42 °F 25 °F 50% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 800 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal  
Big Woods, Leesburg, VA 41.8 °F 42 °F 28 °F 58% WNW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 479 ft 4:40 PM EST Normal  
Green Meadows, Bealeton, VA 45.1 °F 45 °F 28 °F 51% South  at  0.7 mph 0.00 in / hr 449 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire  
VADOT I-66_@_Markham, Linden, VA 40 °F 40 °F 19 °F 43% North  at  2 mph 0.00 in / hr 1006 ft 4:04 PM EST MADIS
Westgate, Manassas, VA 46.7 °F 47 °F 29 °F 50% NNE  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 178 ft 4:41 PM EST Rapid Fire
1 NW Opal, VA, Opal, VA 44.4 °F 44 °F 31 °F 58% South  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 463 ft 4:40 PM EST Rapid Fire
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Public Information Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on February 10, 2012

... Flood stages to change on the Shenandoah and Rapidan rivers...

On Tuesday... March 13th 2012... the flood stages at two river
forecast locations will be lowered in response to local needs and
impacts.

On the Shenandoah River... the flood stage at Millville in Jefferson
County will be lowered from 13.5 feet to 10.0 feet. Several roads
along the river flood at levels around 10 feet... and lowering the
flood stage will provide transportation officials and local
residents additional notice that these roads are expected to flood.
This change will result in a modest increase in flood warnings at
this location. The Reach of this forecast point affects both
Jefferson County West Virginia... and Clarke County Virginia... and
both counties will be warned when the new... lower... flood stage is
expected to be exceeded.

On the Rapidan river... the flood stage at the gauge south of
Culpeper on the Culpeper-Orange County border will be lowered from
14 feet to 13 feet. Roads and agricultural lands along the river
begin to flood at the 13 foot level... and therefore the lowering of
the flood stage will provide additional warning of these
occurrences. As a result of this change... the action stage... which
was previously 13 feet... will be lowered to 11 feet.

If you have questions about these changes... please contact
Jason Elliott
senior service hydrologist
Jason.Elliott@noaa.Gov


View All U.S. Severe Weather