Shenandoah National Park, VA

2:24 PM EST on February 10, 2012 (GMT -0500)
Elev: 318 ft
Lon: 77.9° W
Lat: 38.5° N
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Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (South Indian Ocean) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Southern Pacific)
Weather Summary
Jessica Parker
Weather Underground Forecast for Friday, February 10, 2012.

Expect active weather to move into the East on Friday, as a trough of low pressure moves from the Southern Plains and into the Eastern Valleys. Flow around this system will pull moisture and energy in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley throughout the day. There is a slight chance that these storms will turn severe with strong winds and heavy downpours. The northern side of this system will push a cold front into the Midwest, which will move through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley. Expect light and scattered snow showers to develop along the front as it passes through northern Michigan and into the eastern Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians. Warmer temperatures ahead of this system will allow for rain showers to develop in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Tennessee Valley.

Out West, a weak trough of low pressure moves onshore from the Pacific Ocean, bringing some moisture onshore with it. This will produce more rain and high elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest. Some of this moisture will stretch southward into northern California, allowing for light rain and high elevation snow showers to spread into the northern Sierras.
Weather Underground Forecast for Friday, February 10, 2012.

Expect active weather to move into the East on Friday, as a trough of low pressure moves from the Southern Plains and into the Eastern Valleys. Flow around this system will pull moisture and energy in from the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley throughout the day. There is a slight chance that these storms will turn severe with strong winds and heavy downpours. The northern side of this system will push a cold front into the Midwest, which will move through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley. Expect light and scattered snow showers to develop along the front as it passes through northern Michigan and into the eastern Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians. Warmer temperatures ahead of this system will allow for rain showers to develop in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Tennessee Valley.

Out West, a weak trough of low pressure moves onshore from the Pacific Ocean, bringing some moisture onshore with it. This will produce more rain and high elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest. Some of this moisture will stretch southward into northern California, allowing for light rain and high elevation snow showers to spread into the northern Sierras.
Weather Underground Broadcast Network
Shenandoah National Park Weather at a Glance
Updated 2:15 PM EST
Weather Station
Culpeper (KCJR)
Elevation
312 ft
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Now
Overcast
Overcast
Temperature
46 °F
Feels Like 44 °F
Wind(mph)
6
Sunrise / Set
7:08 AM
5:43 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
Today
Mostly Cloudy 49 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Tonight
Chance of Snow 31 °F
Chance of Snow
90% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
Chance of Snow 41 | 20 °F
Chance of Snow
50% chance of precipitation
Sunday
Partly Cloudy 34 | 20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Monday
Clear 45 | 29 °F
Clear
Tuesday
Chance of Rain 47 | 31 °F
Chance of Rain
30% chance of precipitation
Today is forecast to be nearly the same temperature as yesterday.
Conditions
Pressure
30.04 in
Visibility
10.0 miles
Clouds
Overcast 10000 ft
Moisture
Humidity
50%
Rainfall
0.00 in
Snow Depth
Not available.
METAR
METAR KCJR 101915Z AUTO 21005KT 10SM OVC100 08/M02 A3004 RMK AO2
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Weather Radio
Launch Weather Radio
Temperature
Windchill
44 °F
Dew Point
28 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir
6 mph from SSW
Wind Gust
Health
UV
1 out of 16
Pollen
1.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast
Air Quality
Not available.
Flu Activity
Regional
View Flu Map
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Regional Forecast for Culpeper
This Afternoon
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. South winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
nt_chancesnow Rain. A chance of snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds... becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Saturday
snow Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Saturday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Blustery with lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Sunday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Sunday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
Monday
sunny Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
Monday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
Tuesday
chancerain Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s.
Tuesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Wednesday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Wednesday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Thursday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs around 50.
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
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Forecast
View Calendar 7-Day Weather Forecast for 22701
Friday, 10
Mostly Cloudy
49 | 31 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Saturday, 11
Chance of Snow
41 | 20 °F
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
50%
Sunday, 12
Partly Cloudy
34 | 20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Monday, 13
Clear
45 | 29 °F
Clear
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Tuesday, 14
Chance of Rain
47 | 31 °F
Chance of Rain
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Wednesday, 15
Partly Cloudy
50 | 31 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Thursday, 16
Mostly Cloudy
49 | NA
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
This Afternoon
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. South winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
nt_chancesnow Rain. A chance of snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds... becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 28 | 22 45 | 26 44 | 31 39 | 31
Wind 0 mph North 4 mph ESE 1 mph South 1 mph North
Humidity 77% 48% 58% 74%
Chance of Precip. 0% 10% 10% 90%
Cloud Cover 55% 52% 84% 100%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Rain
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:43 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Saturday
snow Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Saturday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Blustery with lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 33 | 29 40 | 27 34 | 18 28 | 12
Wind 4 mph North 7 mph NW 18 mph NW 19 mph NW
Humidity 83% 58% 51% 49%
Chance of Precip. 90% 50% 50% 40%
Cloud Cover 100% 64% 83% 52%
Conditions Chance of Snow Partly Cloudy Chance of Snow Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:07 AM
5:44 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Sunday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Sunday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 23 | 8 31 | 7 31 | 10 26 | 11
Wind 13 mph NW 15 mph NW 10 mph WNW 6 mph WNW
Humidity 51% 36% 44% 56%
Chance of Precip. 40% 0% 0% 0%
Cloud Cover 41% 35% 34% 4%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:06 AM
5:45 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Monday
sunny Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
Monday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 23 | 13 38 | 16 39 | 19 33 | 22
Wind 4 mph West 6 mph West 4 mph West 2 mph SSW
Humidity 64% 39% 45% 62%
Chance of Precip. 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloud Cover 4% 9% 27% 76%
Conditions Clear Clear Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:05 AM
5:47 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Tuesday
chancerain Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s.
Tuesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 31 | 22 43 | 30 42 | 32 37 | 34
Wind 2 mph WSW 5 mph WSW 3 mph SSW 1 mph South
Humidity 68% 57% 68% 88%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 30% 30%
Cloud Cover 83% 93% 84% 71%
Conditions Mostly Cloudy Chance of Rain Chance of Rain Mostly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:48 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Wednesday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Wednesday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 32 47 | 35 44 | 36 37 | 32
Wind 1 mph West 4 mph NNW 3 mph WNW 1 mph NNW
Humidity 89% 65% 73% 80%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 10%
Cloud Cover 69% 66% 71% 46%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:48 PM
Source: NWS at 12:30 PM EST on February 10, 2012
Regional Forecast for Culpeper
Thursday
partlysunny Partly sunny. Highs around 50.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 29 45 | 33 44 | 37 37 | 32
Wind 2 mph NNW 4 mph NNW 2 mph West 1 mph NNW
Humidity 81% 64% 75% 80%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 10% 10%
Cloud Cover 49% 62% 78% 46%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:04 AM
5:48 PM
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Scientific Forecaster Discussion — MOS Weather Graph
Nearby
Active Notice: Public Information Statement  (US Severe Weather)
History & Almanac
February 10, 2012 Max Temp Min Temp
Normal (KOMH) 42 °F 21 °F
Record (KOMH) 70 °F (1959) -5 °F (1979)
Yesterday 48 °F 28 °F
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Earthquake Activity
City Distance Mag. Time & Date
No recent earthquake activity has been reported nearby.
Minimum magnitude displayed is 2.5.
More information at USGS.gov
Astronomy
Feb. 10, 2012 Rise Set
Actual Time 7:08 AM EST 5:43 PM EST
Civil Twilight 6:41 AM EST 6:11 PM EST
Nautical Twilight 6:10 AM EST 6:42 PM EST
Astronomical Twilight 5:39 AM EST 7:13 PM EST
Moon 9:15 PM EST 8:19 AM EST
Length Of Visible Light 11h 29m
Length of Day
10h 34m
Tomorrow will be 2m 13s longer.
Waning Gibbous, 89% of the Moon is Illuminated
Today
Waning Gibbous
Feb 14
Last Quarter
Feb 21
New
Feb 29
First Quarter
Mar 8
Full
Visit Astronomy
Today's Extremes
State Highs State Lows
53 °F
Chesapeake
53 °F
Williamsburg
53 °F
Suffolk
53 °F
Franklin
51 °F
Oceana NAS
19 °F
Hot Springs
21 °F
Jonesville
21 °F
Richlands
22 °F
Staunton
23 °F
Lynchburg
Source: NWS
Snow Depth
Station Depth Elevation
No new snow has been reported.
Snow Depth Reports — Snow Depth Map
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Aviation
City Temp. Conditions Updated
Culpeper 46 °F Overcast 2:15 PM EST
Warrenton 50 °F Mostly Cloudy 2:15 PM EST
Orange 46 °F Overcast 2:15 PM EST
Stafford 48 °F Clear 1:35 PM EST
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Flight To ETA Status
No flights were found.
Flight Tracker by FlightAware FlightAware
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Type Condition
Flight Rule: VFR (KCJR)
Wind Speed: 5.0 kts.
Wind Dir: 210° (SSW)
Ceiling: 10000 ft

METAR KCJR 101915Z AUTO 21005KT 10SM OVC100 08/M02 A3004 RMK AO2

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Nearby Events
Event Date Forecast
No events within 10 mi of location. View all events.
Event data courtesy eviesays.com
Sports
Event Date Forecast
Budweiser Shootout 8:29 PM EST on February 18, 2012 Average High 71° F/ 21° C
Gatorade Duel 1 2:19 PM EST on February 23, 2012 Average High 70° F/ 21° C
Event Date Forecast
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 10, 2012 Partly Cloudy, 47 °F
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 11, 2012 Chance of Rain, 45 °F
View all Sports Weather
Weather Stations
Station Location Temp. Windchill Dew Point Humidity Wind Precipitation Elevation Updated Type Website
Battle Ridge, Remington, VA 46.4 °F 45 °F 28 °F 48% South  at  4.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 352 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Ashley Glen, Bealeton, VA 46.9 °F 47 °F 22 °F 37% WNW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 388 ft 2:20 PM EST Normal  
Fox Post Farm Opal ,Virginia, Bealeton, VA 44.7 °F 41 °F 28 °F 51% West  at  6.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 375 ft 2:23 PM EST Normal
1 NW Opal, VA, Opal, VA 44.7 °F 45 °F 30 °F 55% South  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 463 ft 2:23 PM EST Rapid Fire
Green Meadows, Bealeton, VA 47.5 °F 48 °F 29 °F 48% SSE  at  1.6 mph 0.00 in / hr 449 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
South Wales, Jeffersonton, VA 44.5 °F 44 °F 28 °F 53% WSW  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 375 ft 2:19 PM EST Normal  
Lake of the Woods, Locust Grove, VA 45.5 °F 46 °F -10 °F 9% West  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 0 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire
Old Waterloo Road, Warrenton, VA 44.1 °F 44 °F 26 °F 48% WSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 512 ft 2:20 PM EST Normal
Boston, VA 44.5 °F 44 °F 28 °F 52% SE  at  3.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 588 ft 2:11 PM EST Normal  
lakeview and flat run rd, Locust Grove, VA 47.7 °F 48 °F 15 °F 27% WNW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 347 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire
Wheatley, Orlean, VA 43.9 °F 44 °F -1 °F 15% WSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 552 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Madison Cnty; 3 miles NE Haywood, Haywood, VA 44.7 °F 45 °F 29 °F 54% South  at  3.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 597 ft 2:20 PM EST Normal  
Fox Creek Farm (KC4QP), Unionville, VA 45.4 °F 43 °F 29 °F 52% SSW  at  5.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 550 ft 2:22 PM EST Normal
Flint Hill Station & Elys Ford Road, Fredericksburg, VA 47.6 °F 46 °F 27 °F 45% West  at  4.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 324 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire
Northwestern Spotsylvania, Fredericksburg, VA 51.6 °F - 4 °F 14% SSW  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 230 ft 2:10 PM EST Normal  
Madison, Madison, VA 46.2 °F 46 °F 29 °F 52% West  at  2.2 mph 0.00 in / hr 469 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Duet, Etlan, VA 46.6 °F 45 °F 34 °F 29% NNW  at  4.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 742 ft 2:21 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Stafford County, Hartwood, VA 47.3 °F 47 °F 34 °F 60% SW  at  1.3 mph 0.00 in / hr 236 ft 2:20 PM EST Normal  
N4JOW Stafford, VA 46.5 °F 46 °F 32 °F 58% WSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 402 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Brookside, Warrenton, VA 48.1 °F 46 °F 29 °F 48% SSE  at  4.5 mph 0.00 in / hr 371 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
APRSWXNET Warrenton VA, New Baltimore, VA 43 °F 43 °F 25 °F 48% SW  at  1 mph 0.00 in / hr 571 ft 1:39 PM EST MADIS
Washington, Washington, VA 42.9 °F 43 °F 28 °F 56% South  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 768 ft 2:13 PM EST Normal
MesoWest N PIEDMONT AREC , Orange, VA 45 °F 42 °F 26 °F 47% SSW  at  5 mph 0.00 in / hr 520 ft 1:00 PM EST MADIS
Mountain View Rd, Flint Hill, VA 45.1 °F 45 °F 23 °F 42% South  at  1.1 mph 0.00 in / hr 640 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Greenstone, Marshall, VA 42.6 °F 40 °F 27 °F 54% SE  at  5.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 662 ft 2:13 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Country Woods Estates, Stafford, VA 49.5 °F 50 °F 32 °F 50% SSE  at  0.4 mph 0.00 in / hr 292 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
Gid Brown Hollow, Washington, VA 42.5 °F 42 °F 28 °F 56% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 1100 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire
Greenwich, Nokesville, VA 46.2 °F 46 °F 26 °F 45% SSW  at  0.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 361 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire  
(K4AAV) Ashleigh Park South, Fredericksburg, VA 46.0 °F 46 °F 30 °F 54% South  at  2.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 285 ft 2:24 PM EST Rapid Fire
VADOT Fredricksburg, Garrisonville, VA 47 °F 47 °F 23 °F 39% ENE  at  0 mph 0.00 in / hr 252 ft 1:23 PM EST MADIS
Firey Run Mountian, Hume, VA 41.5 °F 42 °F 23 °F 48% South  at  1.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 800 ft 2:23 PM EST Normal  
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Public Information Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on February 10, 2012

... Flood stages to change on the Shenandoah and Rapidan rivers...

On Tuesday... March 13th 2012... the flood stages at two river
forecast locations will be lowered in response to local needs and
impacts.

On the Shenandoah River... the flood stage at Millville in Jefferson
County will be lowered from 13.5 feet to 10.0 feet. Several roads
along the river flood at levels around 10 feet... and lowering the
flood stage will provide transportation officials and local
residents additional notice that these roads are expected to flood.
This change will result in a modest increase in flood warnings at
this location. The Reach of this forecast point affects both
Jefferson County West Virginia... and Clarke County Virginia... and
both counties will be warned when the new... lower... flood stage is
expected to be exceeded.

On the Rapidan river... the flood stage at the gauge south of
Culpeper on the Culpeper-Orange County border will be lowered from
14 feet to 13 feet. Roads and agricultural lands along the river
begin to flood at the 13 foot level... and therefore the lowering of
the flood stage will provide additional warning of these
occurrences. As a result of this change... the action stage... which
was previously 13 feet... will be lowered to 11 feet.

If you have questions about these changes... please contact
Jason Elliott
senior service hydrologist
Jason.Elliott@noaa.Gov


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