Dawn, Texas

... Record high minimum set at Amarillo...

A record high minimum temperature of 54 degrees was set at Amarillo
yesterday November 13. This breaks the old record of 52 degrees set
in 2001.

... Winter weather impact statement...

Valid...

Tonight through Monday Nov 16 2009

Winter weather expected...

Mainly snow and blowing snow... though periods of a wintry mix of rain
and snow are expected.

Affected area...

The Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle will likely see
the largest accumulations and biggest impacts. However...
accumulating snow will be possible across most of the panhandles
with the exception of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Forecast timing of the event...

The western Oklahoma and Texas panhandles could see a brief
change over to a rain and snow mix tonight through early Sunday
morning. However... mostly rain is expected through the day on Sunday.
By early Sunday evening... snow is expected across the western
Oklahoma and northwestern Texas panhandles. By midnight Sunday
night... much of the region... with the exception of the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle... will see mainly snow... which will
continue through late morning on Monday.

Potential impacts...

Snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are possible in the Oklahoma and
northern Texas panhandles. Across the central Texas Panhandle... snow
accumulations should range from a half of an inch to 2 inches. In
the southern Texas Panhandle... snow accumulations are expected to
remain below 1 inch... with no accumulating snow in Collingsworth
County expected at this time. Across the region... northerly winds of
15 to 25 mph with higher gusts will be possible Sunday night through
Monday afternoon.

Roads could become snow packed across the Oklahoma and northern
Texas panhandles Sunday evening through Monday morning. Across the
region... including locations with light snow accumulations... strong
winds will to reduced visibilities due to blowing snow Sunday
evening through Monday morning. Some melting of the snow is
possible by Monday afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.

Discussion...

A surface cold front is expected to arrive in the Oklahoma Panhandle
by Sunday morning... and in the southern Texas Panhandle by mid
afternoon on Sunday. The upper level low is expected to track across
the southern Texas Panhandle Sunday night. Models are coming into
better agreement and there is more confidence that the Oklahoma and
northern Texas panhandles especially will see major impacts from
this winter weather event. Therefore... a Winter Storm Watch is in
effect tonight through Monday for the Oklahoma and northern Texas
panhandles.