The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of
northeast Kansas
northwest Missouri
extreme southeast Nebraska
Effective this Thursday afternoon from 500 PM until midnight CDT.
Tornadoes... hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.
The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 70 statute
miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Beatrice Nebraska to 50 miles south of Chillicothe Missouri. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou7).
Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Other watch information... continue... ww 744... ww 745... ww 746...
Discussion... rapid and robust thunderstorm development appears
possible through this evening along residual outflow boundary
extending from sern neb across nern KS and into wrn MO. Air mass
along and S of this boundary has become very hot with temperatures
of 90-100 f. When combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower/mid 70s... environment is moderate to strongly unstable with
MLCAPES of 2000-3000 j/kg. Moreover... current Fairbury neb profiler
and Kansas City vwp indicate moderately strong vertical shear /both
in the low levels and through a deeper layer/... suggesting the
potential for supercells. While large hail and damaging winds would
be the primary severe threats... a tornado or two will be
possible... especially with any discrete cells able to anchor on
residual outflow boundary and track preferentially ssewd within
strong low level shear and high cape environment into this evening.
Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
500. Mean storm motion vector 32015.
... Carbin
