... Winter weather event likely Monday and Monday night...
Moisture will over spread the region Monday... ahead of an upper
level storm system... forecast to be over western Missouri by
Monday evening. The wintry precipitation may be slow to develop
initially Monday west of the Mississippi River over southeast
Missouri... as the airmass will be very dry across the region.
However by afternoon... wintry precipitation should work its way to
the surface... with the activity spreading east from southeast
Missouri Monday afternoon... to areas east of the Mississippi River
including southern Illinois... southwest Indiana and west Kentucky
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Most of the wintry precipitation is expected to be in the form
of snow. However... mixed wintry precipitation is possible as well
with this event... especially south of the Ohio River... and
over southeast Missouri.
Preliminary indications suggest no less than 1 to 2 inches may
accumulate most areas. Some data suggests higher amounts will
be possible. Given the Prospect for mixed wintry precipitation
and the variance seen in the model data... it is still a bit too
soon to gauge snowfall amounts with much confidence. The latest
data suggests higher precipitation rates will occur south of a
line from Perryville Missouri to Owensboro Kentucky which is also
where the best chance of a wintry mix will occur. The best chance
of any freezing rain will be west of the Mississippi River Monday
evening.
Despite the uncertainties with respect to snow amounts... it does
appear that travel impacts will be possible Monday night. Surface
temperatures... antecedent Road conditions... and precipitation
rates will all play a role in the level of impact. Given the cold
air well established across the region ahead of the approaching
system... accumulation will begin shortly after onset.
So... stay tuned for the latest updates. It is possible either
a watch... warning or advisory may be required for the upcoming
event.
