Natural Dam, AR

12:14 PM CST on February 11, 2012 (GMT -0600)
Elev: 1050 ft
Lon: 94.4° W
Lat: 35.7° N
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Active Advisory: Special Statement (US Severe Weather)
Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (South Indian Ocean) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Southern Pacific)
Weather Summary
Kari Kiefer
Weather Underground Forecast for Saturday, February 11, 2012.

Precipitation will spread across the East Coast on Saturday, while more rain and mountain snow showers are anticipated for parts of the West. A trough of low pressure and associated cold front continue moving eastward across the Eastern Valleys into the Eastern Seaboard. Cool temperatures to the north will allow for snow showers to develop across the Northeast and New England, while rain showers are likely over the Mid-Atlantic states. Rain showers over the Southeastern states should wind down in the early morning hours as the tail end of the system pushes offshore early in the day. Expect the New York metropolitan area to see 1 to 3 inches of snow, while the Washington D.C. area will see a messy combination of snow and freezing rain as high temperatures reach into the lower 40s.

Behind this system, a ridge of high pressure continues to build in from the Plains, pushing cold and dry air in from Canada. This allows for plenty of sunshine to spread from the Plains over the Mississippi River Valley and into the Eastern Valleys. Expect the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to see highs in the teens again, while the Midwest will see highs in the 20s. Strong winds will accompany this system, pushing windchill values below zero in these areas. The Southern Plains will remain in the 40s on Saturday.

Out West, a trough of low pressure pushes a cold front over the Pacific Northwest and continues pulling moisture onshore with it. This will kick up more rain showers with high elevation snow showers likely in the Cascades. The tail end of the frontal boundary will sweep through California, bringing light rain showers to the coasts and interior valleys. Expect light snow showers in the Sierra Nevadas by Saturday evening.
Weather Underground Forecast for Saturday, February 11, 2012.

Precipitation will spread across the East Coast on Saturday, while more rain and mountain snow showers are anticipated for parts of the West. A trough of low pressure and associated cold front continue moving eastward across the Eastern Valleys into the Eastern Seaboard. Cool temperatures to the north will allow for snow showers to develop across the Northeast and New England, while rain showers are likely over the Mid-Atlantic states. Rain showers over the Southeastern states should wind down in the early morning hours as the tail end of the system pushes offshore early in the day. Expect the New York metropolitan area to see 1 to 3 inches of snow, while the Washington D.C. area will see a messy combination of snow and freezing rain as high temperatures reach into the lower 40s.

Behind this system, a ridge of high pressure continues to build in from the Plains, pushing cold and dry air in from Canada. This allows for plenty of sunshine to spread from the Plains over the Mississippi River Valley and into the Eastern Valleys. Expect the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to see highs in the teens again, while the Midwest will see highs in the 20s. Strong winds will accompany this system, pushing windchill values below zero in these areas. The Southern Plains will remain in the 40s on Saturday.

Out West, a trough of low pressure pushes a cold front over the Pacific Northwest and continues pulling moisture onshore with it. This will kick up more rain showers with high elevation snow showers likely in the Cascades. The tail end of the frontal boundary will sweep through California, bringing light rain showers to the coasts and interior valleys. Expect light snow showers in the Sierra Nevadas by Saturday evening.
Weather Underground Broadcast Network
Natural Dam Weather at a Glance
Updated 12:14 PM CST
Weather Station - report
Van Buren
Elevation
500 ft
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Now
Clear
Clear
Temperature
25.3 °F
Feels Like 19 °F
Wind(mph)
4.9
Sunrise / Set
7:09 AM
5:55 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
Today
Partly Cloudy 29 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tonight
Clear 11 °F
Clear
Tomorrow
Partly Cloudy 36 | 23 °F
Partly Cloudy
Monday
Ice Pellets 31 | 29 °F
Ice Pellets
90% chance of precipitation
Tuesday
Partly Cloudy 52 | 32 °F
Partly Cloudy
Wednesday
Thunderstorm 47 | 41 °F
T-storms
30% chance of precipitation
Today is forecast to be Much Cooler than yesterday.
Conditions
Pressure
29.74 in
Visibility
10.0 miles
Clouds
Clear -
Moisture
Humidity
39%
Rainfall
0.00 in
Snow Depth
Not available.
METAR
METAR KFSM 111753Z 31005KT 10SM CLR M02/M13 A3069 RMK AO2 SLP399 T10221133 11022 21061 51016
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Weather Radio
Launch Weather Radio
Temperature
Windchill
19 °F
Dew Point
4 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir
4.9 mph from NNW
Wind Gust
4.9 mph
Health
UV
5 out of 16
Pollen
2.50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast
Air Quality
Not available.
Flu Activity
Sporadic
View Flu Map
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Regional Forecast for Crawford
Rest of Today
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs 27 to 33. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Lows around 14. North winds around 10 mph. Wind chill readings 1 to 6.
Sunday
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Wind chill readings 1 to 6 in the morning.
Sunday Night
nt_chancesnow Partly cloudy in the evening...then cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight.
Monday
snow Occasional snow in the morning...then occasional freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. Occasional light drizzle in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Monday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Chance of light freezing drizzle in the evening. Lows around 30.
Tuesday
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s.
Tuesday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Wednesday
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain in the morning... then chance of light rain and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 50 to 56. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
nt_cloudy Cloudy with chance of light rain and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then partly cloudy with chance of light rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the upper 50s.
Thursday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Friday
sunny Sunny with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the mid 50s.
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
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Forecast
View Calendar 7-Day Weather Forecast for 72948
Saturday, 11
Partly Cloudy
29 | 11 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Sunday, 12
Partly Cloudy
36 | 23 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Monday, 13
Ice Pellets
31 | 29 °F
Ice Pellets
Chance of
Precipitation
90%
Tuesday, 14
Partly Cloudy
52 | 32 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Wednesday, 15
Thunderstorm
47 | 41 °F
T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Thursday, 16
Chance of Rain
54 | 32 °F
Chance of Rain
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
Friday, 17
Clear
52 | NA
Clear
Chance of
Precipitation
10%
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Rest of Today
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs 27 to 33. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
nt_sunny Mostly clear. Lows around 14. North winds around 10 mph. Wind chill readings 1 to 6.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 14 | 4 25 | 0 25 | -3 16 | 0
Wind 13 mph North 15 mph North 12 mph NNE 8 mph NE
Humidity 60% 30% 27% 45%
Chance of Precip. 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cloud Cover 58% 22% 0% 20%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Clear Clear Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:09 AM
5:55 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Sunday
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Wind chill readings 1 to 6 in the morning.
Sunday Night
nt_chancesnow Partly cloudy in the evening...then cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 11 | -3 29 | 0 34 | 2 27 | 7
Wind 6 mph ENE 7 mph South 8 mph SSE 13 mph SSE
Humidity 47% 24% 24% 43%
Chance of Precip. 0% 0% 0% 50%
Cloud Cover 16% 35% 56% 100%
Conditions Clear Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:56 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Monday
snow Occasional snow in the morning...then occasional freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. Occasional light drizzle in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Monday Night
nt_partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Chance of light freezing drizzle in the evening. Lows around 30.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 25 | 16 29 | 25 31 | 27 29 | 29
Wind 14 mph SSE 16 mph SSE 13 mph SSE 7 mph South
Humidity 68% 81% 85% 92%
Chance of Precip. 50% 90% 90% 20%
Cloud Cover 100% 99% 66% 52%
Conditions Snow Ice Pellets Ice Pellets Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:07 AM
5:57 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Tuesday
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s.
Tuesday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 29 | 29 47 | 34 49 | 32 38 | 32
Wind 6 mph WNW 1 mph WNW 0 mph ESE 1 mph SE
Humidity 96% 62% 52% 81%
Chance of Precip. 20% 10% 10% 10%
Cloud Cover 39% 36% 4% 15%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:06 AM
5:58 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Wednesday
cloudy Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain in the morning... then chance of light rain and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 50 to 56. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
nt_cloudy Cloudy with chance of light rain and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then partly cloudy with chance of light rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 34 45 | 40 47 | 41 43 | 43
Wind 4 mph ESE 8 mph SSE 6 mph SE 2 mph SE
Humidity 99% 86% 82% 96%
Chance of Precip. 10% 30% 30% 50%
Cloud Cover 87% 83% 90% 64%
Conditions Chance of Rain Thunderstorm Thunderstorm Chance of Rain
Sunrise & Sunset
7:05 AM
5:59 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Thursday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the upper 50s.
Thursday Night
nt_sunny Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 41 | 38 50 | 36 50 | 34 38 | 32
Wind 5 mph WSW 13 mph NW 5 mph NNW 4 mph North
Humidity 85% 56% 51% 79%
Chance of Precip. 50% 20% 20% 10%
Cloud Cover 30% 27% 3% 9%
Conditions Chance of Rain Chance of Rain Clear Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:05 AM
5:59 PM
Source: NWS at 11:43 am CST on February 11, 2012
Regional Forecast for Crawford
Friday
sunny Sunny with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the mid 50s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 34 | 31 47 | 31 50 | 34 38 | 32
Wind 4 mph NNW 6 mph NW 5 mph NNW 4 mph North
Humidity 88% 53% 51% 79%
Chance of Precip. 10% 10% 20% 10%
Cloud Cover 0% 0% 3% 9%
Conditions Clear Clear Clear Clear
Sunrise & Sunset
7:05 AM
5:59 PM
BestForecast (what's this?)
Scientific Forecaster Discussion — MOS Weather Graph
Nearby
History & Almanac
February 11, 2012 Max Temp Min Temp
Normal (KFSM) 54 °F 32 °F
Record (KFSM) 76 °F (1962) -8 °F (1899)
Yesterday 46 °F 30 °F
Yesterday's Heating Degree Days: 27
Choose a date
Earthquake Activity
City Distance Mag. Time & Date
No recent earthquake activity has been reported nearby.
Minimum magnitude displayed is 2.5.
More information at USGS.gov
Astronomy
Feb. 11, 2012 Rise Set
Actual Time 7:09 AM CST 5:55 PM CST
Civil Twilight 6:42 AM CST 6:21 PM CST
Nautical Twilight 6:12 AM CST 6:51 PM CST
Astronomical Twilight 5:43 AM CST 7:21 PM CST
Moon 10:31 PM CST 9:03 AM CST
Length Of Visible Light 11h 38m
Length of Day
10h 45m
Tomorrow will be 2m 1s longer.
Waning Gibbous, 82% of the Moon is Illuminated
Today
Waning Gibbous
Feb 14
Last Quarter
Feb 21
New
Feb 29
First Quarter
Mar 8
Full
Visit Astronomy
Today's Extremes
State Highs State Lows
37 °F
Monticello
35 °F
Camden
34 °F
Pine Bluff
34 °F
Arkadelphia
33 °F
El Dorado
12 °F
Rogers
12 °F
Siloam Springs
12 °F
Bentonville
12 °F
NW Arkansas Airport
12 °F
Fayetteville
Source: NWS
Snow Depth
Station Depth Elevation
No new snow has been reported.
Snow Depth Reports — Snow Depth Map
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News
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Travel Planning
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Aviation
City Temp. Conditions Updated
Fort Smith 28 °F Clear 11:53 AM CST
Fayetteville 22 °F Clear 11:53 AM CST
Sallisaw 28 °F Clear 11:55 AM CST
Siloam Springs 21 °F Clear 11:55 AM CST
View all Aviation Tools
Flight To ETA Status
No flights were found.
Flight Tracker by FlightAware FlightAware
View U.S. Airport Delays
Type Condition
Flight Rule: VFR (KFSM)
Wind Speed: 5.0 kts.
Wind Dir: 327° (NNW)
Ceiling: Unlimited

METAR KFSM 111753Z 31005KT 10SM CLR M02/M13 A3069 RMK AO2 SLP399 T10221133 11022 21061 51016

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Nearby Events
Event Date Forecast
No events within 10 mi of location. View all events.
Event data courtesy eviesays.com
Sports
Event Date Forecast
Budweiser Shootout 8:29 PM EST on February 18, 2012 Average High 71° F/ 21° C
Gatorade Duel 1 2:19 PM EST on February 23, 2012 Average High 70° F/ 21° C
Event Date Forecast
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 11, 2012 Rain Showers, 45 °F
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 12, 2012 Mostly Cloudy, 45 °F
View all Sports Weather
Weather Stations
Station Location Temp. Windchill Dew Point Humidity Wind Precipitation Elevation Updated Type Website
Van Buren, AR 25.3 °F 19 °F 4 °F 39% NNW  at  4.9 mph 0.00 in / hr 500 ft 12:14 PM CST Rapid Fire  
HADS BARON FORK AT DUTCH MILLS AR, Morrow, AR - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 986 ft 11:30 AM CST MADIS
RAWS STRICKLER AR, Canehill, AR 19 °F 8 °F 6 °F 57% North  at  10 mph 0.00 in / hr 1708 ft 11:09 AM CST MADIS
HADS FROG BAYOU AT RUDY AR, Alma, AR - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 493 ft 11:00 AM CST MADIS
HADS LEE CREEK RESERVOIR NEAR VAN BUR AR, Van Buren, AR - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 399 ft 11:00 AM CST MADIS
Hwy 170, West Fork, AR 21.6 °F 8 °F 8 °F 56% North  at  16.1 mph 0.00 in / hr 1625 ft 12:14 PM CST Rapid Fire  
Van Buren, AR 38.8 °F 33 °F 5 °F 24% NW  at  8.3 mph 0.00 in / hr 450 ft 12:14 PM CST Rapid Fire  
Prairie Grove, AR 22.1 °F 14 °F 8 °F 55% NE  at  7.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 1385 ft 12:14 PM CST Normal
HADS FROG BAYOU NEAR WINFREY 12NE AR, Winslow, AR - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 1200 ft 10:45 AM CST MADIS
down town, Fort Smith, AR 32.9 °F 29 °F 8 °F 35% NW  at  4.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 626 ft 11:14 AM MST Rapid Fire  
HADS MULBERRY RIVER NEAR MULBERRY 6NN AR, Mountainburg, AR - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 433 ft 11:30 AM CST MADIS
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Special Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 12:11 PM CST on February 11, 2012

... A wintry mix still on tap for Sunday night into Monday...

A mix of wintry precipitation is expected across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas late Sunday night... continuing into the day
Monday. Given the timing of the precipitation... some impacts are
expected for the Monday morning commute.

A fast moving storm system will move out of the Desert Southwest
late this weekend... resulting in precipitation development across
the Southern Plains. With cold air already in place... the
precipitation will likely begin as snow across eastern Oklahoma
late Sunday night... spreading into northwest Arkansas Monday
morning.

As the storm system moves closer to and over the area... temperatures
aloft will increase from southwest to northeast... which will cause
the snow to transition to sleet and/or freezing rain over a good
portion of the area on Monday. The heavier precipitation will be
ending from west to east starting around midday Monday... with
lingering areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle into Monday night.

The highest snow accumulations will likely occur near the Kansas
and Missouri borders... as well as in the higher terrain areas of
northwest Arkansas. At this time... it appears that 1 to 4 inches of
snow and sleet accumulation is likely with locally higher amounts
possible. There is also the potential for some minor ice
accumulations to the south of the heavier snow band. Prolonged power
outages or similar major ice impacts are not expected.

Persons should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as snow
and ice amounts continue to be refined through the weekend. A
Winter Storm Watch may be needed for some areas late Sunday night
into Monday.





424 am CST Sat Feb 11 2012

... Wintry precipitation looking likely for Sunday night into
Monday...

A mix of wintry precipitation is expected across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas late Sunday night... continuing into
the day Monday. The timing of precipitation could mean impacts for
the Monday morning commute.

A fast moving storm system will move out of the Desert Southwest
late this weekend... resulting in precipitation development across
the Southern Plains. With cold air already in place... the
precipitation will likely begin as snow across eastern Oklahoma
late Sunday night... spreading into northwest Arkansas Monday
morning.

As the storm system moves closer to and over the area... temperatures
aloft will increase from south to north... which will cause the
snow to transition to sleet and freezing rain Monday morning into
Monday afternoon. The heavier precipitation will likely end
from west to east by late Monday afternoon with lingering areas of
drizzle or freezing drizzle into Monday evening.

The highest snow accumulations will likely occur near the Kansas
and Missouri borders... as well as in the higher terrain areas of
northwest Arkansas. At this time... it appears that 1 to 3 inches
of snow accumulation is likely with locally higher amounts possible.
Sleet amounts approaching a quarter inch will also be possible
south of Interstate 44. There is also the potential for some
minor ice accumulations to the south of the heavier snow band.
Prolonged power outages or similar major ice impacts are not
expected.

Persons should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as snow
and ice amounts continue to be refined through the weekend. A
Winter Storm Watch may be needed for some areas late Sunday night
into Monday.