Choctaw, AR

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through
Monday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday night through
Monday afternoon.

* Timing... snow should begin across north central and west central
Arkansas later Sunday night. A wintry mix of snow... sleet and
freezing rain will eventually spread eastward over the remainder
of the area on Monday. Most of the precipitation will taper off
by late Monday and early Monday evening.

* Snow accumulations... 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected to
accumulate across much of northern Arkansas and the higher
elevations of the Ouachita Mountains in west central Arkansas.
Meanwhile... 1 to 2 inches of snowfall is possible over west
central Arkansas... before the precipitation changes over to a
mixture of snow... sleet... freezing rain and rain on Monday.

* Ice accumulations... ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.20 of an inch
will be possible over much of west central Arkansas on Monday...
generally along and south of the Arkansas River valley. This
will greatly depend on the expected changeover from snow to
sleet and freezing rain... as well as surface temperature trends
on Monday.

* Impact... travel conditions will be treacherous starting late
Sunday night and continuing on Monday... as roadways become ice
and snow covered.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

... Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM CST this
evening...

A lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM CST this
evening.

* Event: north to northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon... with gusts up to 30 mph
possible. This will occur in areas from Yellville to Little
Rock and Monticello eastward.

* Timing: breezy conditions will continue through late this
afternoon before winds gradually diminish this evening.

* Impact: gusty winds will create rough chop on area lakes and rivers.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Boaters are advised to use caution on area tributaries. Small boats
will be especially prone to capsizing.

... A mixture of winter precipitation is expected across the natural
state Monday...

Arctic high pressure will move into the region this weekend.
Well below normal temperatures are in the forecast... with the coldest
air of the winter thus far. High temperatures today and
Sunday will only be in the 30s and 40s... with some mid and upper 20s
in the northwest. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will be in
single digits to the lower 20s.

It will remain cold on Monday as a new storm system approaches from
the Southern Plains. The system will pull moisture north from the
Gulf Coast... and wintry precipitation will develop.

As the precipitation moves in from the west early Monday morning... a
mixture of snow and sleet is expected across northern and central
Arkansas. Across the south... there may be a combination of rain and
freezing rain.

As the day progresses... warmer air will try to overspread the
region from the south. Snow should continue toward the Missouri
border... but a mixture of rain... freezing rain... and sleet will
be possible across western and central Arkansas. Across the far
south... a switchover to all rain is anticipated.

Due to the mixture of precipitation... both the morning and afternoon
commutes may be hazardous across the state.

As the system moves out of the area Monday night... drizzle will be
possible. Even if temperatures rise above freezing Monday
afternoon... most areas will fall below freezing during the evening...
with freezing drizzle possible Monday night. This will cause travel
issues even in areas that received rain during the day.

This could be a significant winter event in parts of the state.
The pattern is very complex... and forecast refinements are
likely leading up to the event... as a degree or two change in
temperature will have a major impact. Arkansans are advised to
monitor the forecast this weekend... and plan accordingly.