Bay Minette, Alabama

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Styx river near Elsanor
* from Tuesday morning until late Tuesday night
* at 8am Monday the stage was... 1.9 feet
* minor flooding is forecast
* flood stage is 12.0 feet
* forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to
rise to near 12.3 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood
stage by tomorrow evening.
* At 12.0 feet... residence downstream at Seminole Landing should be alert to
possible flooding as the gage rises to the 12 foot flood stage.

818 am CST Mon Nov 09 2009

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the fish river near Silverhill
* from Tuesday afternoon until late Tuesday night
* at 7am Monday the stage was... 1.6 feet
* minor flooding is forecast
* flood stage is 11.0 feet
* forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise
to near 11.1 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage
by tomorrow evening.
* At 11.0 feet... flood stage... County Road 48 floods at bridge

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Alabama and northwest Florida... including the
following areas... in Alabama... Butler... Clarke... Conecuh...
Covington... Crenshaw... Escambia... lower Baldwin... lower
Mobile... Monroe... upper Baldwin... upper Mobile and Wilcox. In
northwest Florida... coastal Escambia... coastal Okaloosa...
coastal Santa Rosa... inland Escambia... inland Okaloosa and
inland Santa Rosa.

* Through Tuesday morning

* a Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include all of southwest
Alabama and northwest Florida through midday Tuesday... due to
excessive rainfall from Ida. Ida is expected to move onshore late
tonight across southern Mobile County. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts can be expected in the watch
area through Tuesday morning.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

... Tropical Storm Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM CST
Tuesday...
... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...

... New information...
based on recent radar trends... it is apparent that Ida
will make landfall later this evening... most likely over coastal
Alabama. An abrupt increase in winds above tropical storm force over
the beaches has begun to onset in the past hour. This trend will
follow suit further inland through 10 PM CST. Total tide heights are
now between 2 and 3 feet across the region... and are highest east of
the center.


... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...

At this time... all storm related preparations should be complete.


... Winds...
sustained tropical force wind speed of 39 mph or higher are now
occurring from the west end of Dauphin Island eastward to near
Pensacola. Gusts to tropical storm force will continue to spread into
the interior portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties through the
early evening hours. Sustained tropical storm force winds will spread
into the area later this evening. The sustained winds will subside
below tropical storm force over extreme southwest Alabama late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible
along the coast with gusts to 40 to 50 mph further inland until the
winds subside on Tuesday.


... Inland flooding...
current rainfall rates are no more than one inch per hour. These
rates will increase as ida's circulation center nears the coast
later this evening and early Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for southwest Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle
through noon Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches... with locally
higher amounts around 8 inches... can be expected. Listen for possible
flood warnings for your location... and be ready to act should
flooding occur.


... Tornadoes...
give very stable air near the coast... the tornado threat is low. If a
tornado were to occur it would be in the next few hours near the coast.

... Public information statement...

... Ida continues to near the central Gulf Coast near ft Morgan and
Orange Beach in Alabama...

At 730 PM... the center of Ida is estimated by local radar to be
around 55 miles south of Dauphin Island Alabama... moving north
northeast at around 19 mph. This places the center of circulation
moving inland between ft Morgan and Orange Beach in the next 2 to 3
hours. Winds near the center of circulation are between 38 and 50
knots with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected as it nears
landfall.

Observations along the immediate coast near the mouth of Mobile Bay
show tidal levels have risen to around 3 feet above predicted levels
and will continue to rise for the remainder of this evening possibly
as much as 6 feet before midnight... especially to the east of the
center of circulation affecting the southeast part of Mobile Bay and
the Intracoastal Waterway of Alabama and northwest Florida from the
Alabama barge canal to Big Lagoon.

Winds speeds near the mouth of Mobile Bay were around 30 knots
gusting to 40 knots with higher gusts expected up until landfall
which is estimated to be around 12 midnight.

Further to the east near the southern end of Pensacola Bay waters
levels were about 2 feet above predicted levels and will continue to
rise... possibly reaching 5 feet above predicated levels before
midnight.

Wind speeds near the southern end of Pensacola Bay were around 20
knots gusting to near 30 knots and are expected to increase to
around 35 to 40 knots with higher gusts for the next 2 hours.

Offshore... significant wave heights 15 miles south of Gulf Shores
were 14 feet.

At the north end of Mobile Bay at the Alabama state docks water
levels were decreasing in height and were about 1 foot above
predicated levels but could rise briefing again near landfall before
falling again after midnight as the center of circulation moves
further inland.

&&

Ee